 Macau Expert - Joseph |
|
|---|---|
| With over 15 years of experience in racing journalism, Joseph has joined the ranks of the Hong Kong press as a Macau racing correspondent since 1999, and now as part of the Hong Kong Daily News talent. On top of being a Macau racing expert, Joseph has also been following the international scene avidly with a professional touch, particularly in 2001, when he defeated competitors from all over the world to triumph in the on-line Emirates World Series Fantasy Challenge, while regularly being a leading contender in various MJC tipsters’ contests through the years. | |
Expert Column for Macau Hong Kong Trophy Day (Joseph)
S1-1 Grand Lisboa Cup
With a Friday rainstorm (20/4) in the forecast, “soft/heavy goings” will be the key words as it comes to selections in this turf contest, the class act with soft turf experience here being none other than MY DARK CHOCOLATE. Having won two starts back, the 2010 Macau Derby runners-up took a drop in distance for a 1400-meter attempt last time out, and closed furiously in the late stages. With such top form, he can get job done provided in getting a clean break.
On top of beating champion LUEN YAT FOREVER at his prime, GOLDSON also finished visibly well in last year’s Macau Hong Kong Trophy. He will break from the inside this time, where the going along the inside should yet deteriorate at the top of the card, and be a live long shot despite a somewhat beleaguered form on soft turf.
After a long layoff, NORTHERN CHAMPION checked in only seventh last time out at the same 1500-meter distance, yet the top 5 finishers are all Macau Hong Kong Cup starters in the same afternoon. This injury-plagued individual should find the soft turf more to his liking, and improve off from his previous effort.
BLUE JADE GORDON, an improving five-year-old from Great Britain, scored his last two starts on soft turf with ease, and has every right here to challenge with his favorite track listing in stock.
SELECTIONS: DARK CHOCOLATE, GOLDSON, NORTHERN CHAMPION & BLUE JADE GORDON
S1-2 Macau Hong Kong Trophy
GOOD UNCLE has prevailed in 4 of his 5 appearances on soft or heavy turf. Though coming off from a rather dull performance in the Hong Kong Macau Trophy, this flighty gelding of just under 1000 pounds is just the right returning to such a tight track in Taipa, whereas a stall 5 will give him all the options to play for, and will be a tough customer standing his home turf.
KYARA, though getting the worst in the barrier draw to break from the outside post position amongst the Hong Kong shippers, is coming into this race with the best form and preparation; moreover, he had dusted the field by a whopping 7 lengths on soft turf while campaigning in New Zealand. Fast early fractions as often seen at Taipa would suit this headstrong individual perfectly, who is also getting a significant weight break.
Returning from a lengthy layoff, LUEN YAT FOREVER was far from being a threat to the winner in his previous 1350-meter attempt on sand. However, he is reunited with Nicholas Hall, who guided this veteran to a third-place finish in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap in Australia last October, and is hoping for a big comeback upon this good partnership.
VIVA PRONTO is certainly a more effective individual when the turf is listed as good than yielding, but this is a high-speed cruiser who just loves to have the lead all by himself. If he can beat CROWN WITNESS on the first few jumps and get to the fence first, he can surprise.
SELECTIONS: GOOD UNCLE, KYARA, LUEN YAT FOREVER, VIVA PRONTO
S1-3 Chairman’s Challenge Cup
This Group I prize will be contested at set weights, and therefore runners with higher ratings are certainly in the sweet spot, in particular GOLDEN STAR, the top-rated gelding in this field. This Macau Sand Premier Cup winner from last November prefers an outing here instead of the 1350-meter Sand Classic Cup; with winning records at the same event two seasons back and a perfect post position, this off-goings specialist can lead all the way from gate to finish.
Having yet to miss the board in his Macau career, LUCK OF SMILING is a four-year-old that deserves full respect. His connections have shrewdly mapped out a sprint-exclusive program, setting up perfectly for a showdown with GOLDEN STAR in this race. This pair will be my keys in the Quinella / Double Trio exotics.
Meawhile, MY PONY, also keeping up with a 100% in-the-money record in Macau, broke his maiden first time out abroad exactly on heavy goings, which will also be part of my selections in Quinella / Tierce.
Former Hong Kong runner EL MORRO is now registered at Taipa under the same English namesake, and has been fresh off from debuts or layoffs. With his Class 2 form in Hong Kong, his first outing in Macau is highly anticipated, and will definitely be in the mix.
For Double Trio, I will put both GOLDEN STAR and LUCK OF SMILING on top of my ticket, whereas in addition to MY PONY and EL MORRO, I will also wheel in POWER ALKHAFIF, COPPER ALLOY and PUBLIC BENEFIT to complete the exotics.
SELECTIONS: GOLDEN STAR, LUCK OF SMILING, MY PONY & EL MORRO
S1-4 Macau Derby
The prestigious prize for four-year-olds at set weights is almost a lob-sided affair for the higher rated elites, and my top choice here is LUCKY JAI. The reigning Macau Guineas winner did finish out of money at this distance earlier on – his only off-the-board appearance in Macau, but he simply surged to the next level with first-time tongue tie in his last outing. Facing almost an identical field that he has left in dust not long ago, he is at minimum a cinch for the placings.
On the other hand, stablemate ELDERLY PARADISE is the highest rated 1800-meter winner in this field. His lacklustre performance in the past two races was just a facade; proven at this trip, and with Olivier Doleuze on board this time, he can compete with LUCKY JAI.
ABSOULTELY WIN, from the Gary Moore stable, is invariably the most star-struck, who has yet to meet his first defeat through two starts in Macau. He is questionable in stamina and soft turf capability; however, he did finish second on his overseas debut right at a mile, whereas half-brother and retired stablemate VIVA AMOUR thrived on soft goings. He can be a big upset in this field.
Unable to get the lead last time out, EXCEL was beaten as the favourite in the Macau Guineas; while stepping up to 1800 meters and getting post 11, he should take the game to the field early from out wide, and a fresh pilot can help for a redeeming performance.
As this is the last Leg of the Double Trio, I suggest putting LUCKY JAI on top, and apart from ELDERY PARADISE, ABSOLUTELY WIN and EXCEL, I would also wheel in POWER REGIMENTAL and FLORENCE ELITE.
SELECTIONS: LUCKY JAI, ELDERLY PARADISE, ABSOLUTELY WIN and EXCEL
Double Trio Selections: (Total 50 bets)
S1-3: 2 Bankers in GOLDEN STAR and LUCK OF SMILING, with the selections of EL MORRO, MY PONY, POWER ALKHAFIF, COPPER ALLOY and PUBLIC BENEFIT. (5 bets)
S1-4: LUCKY JAI as the banker, ELDERLY PARADIST, ABSOLUTELY WIN, EXCEL, POWER REGIMENTAL and FLORENCE ELITE being the selections. (10 bets)
S1-5 Sand Classic Cup
Former Hong Kong runner WINDICATOR RETURNS makes a notable debut at Taipa, who should dictate the main speed in front, whereas my key here will be KA WO FORTUNE, making his second start after switching to Gary Moore’s yard. The defending champion had a nice warm up with a fifth-place effort last time out at 1350 meters, who should improve with blinkers back on this time.
ST JAZZA is quite a live longshot despite in a tough spot rating-wise. In a Class 2 / 3 contest last time out over 1350 meters, this individual closed just in time for the Quinella while losing ground throughout, and should be a surprise here with a new pilot in Wayne Smith.
Earlier in the season, AMAGANSETT had been a post-time scratch due to foot injury, but is well prepared for this outing, and gets the service of champion rider Manoel Nunes da Silva. With some early speed up front, this deep closer does have a chance to come back in style.
WONDERFUL TIGER, last year’s Grand Lisboa Cup champion, switches for this running of the Sand Classic Cup. He does have a credible form in beating dirt specialist VIVA OCHO earlier this season, and will complete my Quinella / Tierce exotics.
SELECTIONS: KAH WO FORTUNE, ST JAZZA, AMAGANSETT, WONDERFUL TIGER
S1-6 Sand Mile
A fiercely competitive group of middle-distance dirt specialists will lock horns once again in this mile contest; but over all, VIVA OCHO, finishing all but once in the top 4 through his 14 dirt outings at Taipa, will still be on top of my ticket. This consistent performer has yet to miss the board through 4 attempts on the sand this season, who should have collared GOLDEN SIK LIK and VICTORY ADMIRAL last time out had Fausto Durso not rated excessively and left him too much to do. With a switch to K M Chin on board this time, he should be the horse to beat.
For the bottom, I will pick WORLD FOURTUNE, whose dirt form is more than reliable, having finished second in the Macau Sand Premier Cup ahead of DYNAMIC BLITZ. His previous effort under an apprentice was far from full out, and should improve with a rider change.
GOLDEN SIK LIK remains as part of my selections in the race. This new 1600-meter record holder over the same course and distance in Macau still shows plenty of athleticism, and will enjoy the early pace all by himself with a lack of disputing speed in front.
VICTORY ADMIRAL finished just behind GOLDEN SIK LIK in last two races, but will again face his arch-nemesis VIVA OCHO, and should at best get in the mix for the placings.
SELECTIONS: VIVA OCHO, WORLD FORTUNE, GOLDEN SIK LIK, VICTORY ADMIRAL
 Macau Expert - Edmond Cheung |
|
|---|---|
| Edmond Cheung is a reputed race caller. He has extensive knowledge on Asian horse racing, currently one of the presenters on Cable TV racing programmes, and a contributor for Sing Tao Daily. He is best known as the winner of the first "King of Race Caller" contest organized by the Hong Kong Jockey Club, and is known for his pace analysis and selecting longshots for racegoers. In 2009 the Macau Jockey Club invited Edmond as the commentator for Macau Hong Kong Trophy and the Macau Derby Trial. | |
Expert Column for Macau Hong Kong Trophy Day (Edmond Cheung)
S1-1 Grand Lisboa Cup
JYLLAND is simply an ace on soft goings, particularly in middle to staying distances. Should the track be listed as yielding or heavy, he will be my selection in Quinella or Tierce.
DR SWEET thumped LUCKY JAI twice on yielding turf this season, who has every proof to be a classy specialist on such goings. His last outing is simply a throw-out in running wide throughout the race; breaking from the inside this time, he has every right to come out on top.
HERO WINNER has been exclusively a dirt winner, yet he could shock every now and then with an above-average performance on soft turf, and is having a top form at the moment.
After a solid form on soft turf two seasons back, nailing four wins on such goings, GOLDSON, though usually in the money, had yet a single win on soft goings throughout last season. However, with a resurging form as seen last time out, this should also be a force to reckon with.
SELECTIONS: MY DARK CHOCOLATE, JYLLAND, DR SWEET, HERO WINNER, GOLDSON & BLUE JADE GORDEN
S1-2 Macau Hong Kong Trophy
GOOD UNCLE is a tenacious pacemaker who, if you let him snatch an early rail to cruise along, is often hard to get by in the end. Continued downpours in recent weeks cannot be better news to this happy camper on soft turf.
Five-year-old KAAPTAN is a 3-time winner at Taipa, two of which were in group company, including a Group 2 victory over last year’s Macau Hong Kong Trophy champion CLOWN MASTER, and is a classy contender in this race.
WEALTHY MAN is another classy, consistent individual in this field, whose chance nevertheless depends heavily on track listing. He races best on firm goings, average when it is yielding, and a heavy track would simply take his game away.
At the 124 mark, Top-rated VIVA PRONTO has a versatile, offensive running style up close to the main speed, and can out-sprint the field all the way from 1200 to 1500 meters. However, he also has a firm track affinity, and the recent rain is definitely no good news to his connections.
Former Triple Crown Champion LUEN YAT FOREVER has been for years representing Macau in overseas, and is a deep closer with explosive acceleration. With however a lengthy layoff in Taipa through the past two seasons, his recent return was just a mediocre warm-up act, and is still a long way from getting back into top form.
KYARA, a recent 1400-meter winner at Sha Tin, has class written all over him by the time and closing fractions of that performance. This invader did score on soft turf in overseas, and should be the main hope for Hong Kong.
Meanwhile, CROWN WITNESS is simply a horse for the course at Taipa. His effort last time out was more of bad racing luck than any, having his heels clipped from behind midway through the running. Should he be let loose early, this will be too fast a horse to catch.
SELECTIONS: GOOD UNCLE, TURF EXPRESS, CROWN WITNESS, KAAPTAN, KYARA & WEALTHY MAN
S1-3 Chairman’s Challenge Cup
MY PONY, a rangy 1300-pounder, has now a 3 wins, 1 second and 1 third record from 5 starts after switching to Taipa this season. Should be break well and stick with the pace up front, this versatile son of O’Reilly should be rated highly to take the cup.
Top speedball LUCK OF SMILING can score from anywhere in the race, and handles both dirt and turf equally well. The four-year-old gelding has a 6 wins,3 seconds and 2 thirds record from 11 starts, never missing the board at Taipa. In surging from after a brief layoff, he will be another horse to beat in this race.
POWER ALKHAFIF is quite keen to handle off goings; with possible rain on the menu, he can surprise under Zac Purton.
Top subscription griffin and 1200-meter specialist TRON KINGDOM has scored on 8 previous occasions over the same trip. Though plagued with a mediocre form for some time, he would be a fresh turn-around from the layoff, and is the X factor in this race.
GOLDEN STAR is another game jet sprinter with prohibitive speed and consistency. With 12 wins in the books, this six-year-old gelding is a soft turf specialist through the years, with his greatest moment came two seasons back in a dominating victory over VIVA PRONTO. Shelved since February, he will be more than ready for a tilt in this field.
REGAL FLAME is one strong closer at 1200 and 1400 meters. However, he is rather unfavorably rated in this race, standing right in the way of some tough competition, and needs a perfect trip to get in the mix.
SELECTIONS: MY PONY, LUCK OF SMILING, POWER ALKHAFIF & TRON KINGDOM
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS: GOLDEN STAR & REGAL FLAME
S1-4 Macau Derby
Just off from a fresh start, ABSOLUTELY WIN is a perfect 2-for-2 in Macau who has class written all over him. Stretching out to 1800 meters is inevitably a challenge, yet racing in the same age group will cut him a slack, who deserves a winning shot.
EXCEL dumped LUCKY JAI in the wake two starts back at 1500 meters, and is well regarded with class. He was having a horrendous trip last time out; with his natural speed, he will still be a major contender here.
LUCKY JAI is a game versatile gelding, with a fabulous record of 4 wins, 5 seconds, 1 third and 1 fourth from 11 starts at Taipa since last season, whereas a soft track listing can never stop him from challenging the top prize.
FLORENCE ELITE is a surging individual in recent form, and is more like a galloper who prefers 1800 meters. Rated at 57, this is after all a serious challenger.
ELDERLY PARADISE is recently a Group 2 winner in the Winter Stakes over the same 1800-meter trip, who is as athletic and effective on turf, and should not be disguised as a second-stringer from the same yard.
SELECTIONS: ABSOLUTELY WIN, EXCEL, LUCKY JAI, FLORENCE ELITE & ELDERLY PARADISE
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS: GOLDEN SPIRITUAL
S1-5 Sand Classic Cup
LIVING PEGASUS has the best record on dirt in this race, who made his first attempt at this distance last time out, and closed ferociously to defeat a classy field. Holding on to a good form, he should impress once again.
AMAGANSETT, breaking his maiden last season at 1300 meters, cruised home with ease, and is superb on dirt. He has been going the wrong way for a while, yet showing some resurging form in a recent barrier trial, and is another leading contender.
Earlier this season, WONDERFUL TIGER has pounded the mighty VIVA OCHO at 1600 meters on dirt, showing a good handling of this track surface. Cutting back in distance, he can benefit from a strong pace in front.
THE LOVE GURU is a consistent performer throughout this season, having run the lights out to score at 1300 meters. He had track bias against his will on the rail in his last appearance; with presumably better goings in the outer parts of the course this weekend, he can benefit from an outside post position.
ST JAZZA is keeping up with almost a 50% rate to hit the Quinella on dirt, and has beaten the 101-rated LUCKY JAI in a 1300-meter dirt showdown early in the season. He should be a threat from a range although badly handicapped in ratings.
Former Hong Kong runner WINDICATOR RETURNS marks his Macau career debut here in this race. He is showing a good form in his barrier trials, mixing up early for more than often in the front end with some of Macau’s best, and is sitting on a breakthrough performance.
SELECTIONS: LIVING PEGASUS, AMAGANSETT, WONDERFUL TIGER, THE LOVE GURU & ST JAZZA
S1-6 Sand Mile
GOLDEN SIK LIK is a dirt specialist, who in two starts back gave both VICTORY ADMIRAL and VIVA OCHO no chance whatsoever in leading all the way up front. His recent form and training have been spotless, and with his high cruising speed cutting loose early, he can once again lead all the way.
VICTORY ADMIRAL thrives on dirt – and particularly on rainy days. After a nasty clash on the rail last season, he has been improving one race at a time, gobbling up as of date 3 seconds this season, only missing the board last time out while running on the slower part of the track along the rail. The 1600-meter distance is right up his alley, who should at least be in the placings.
VIVA OCHO is another dirt juggernaut at Taipa, who has soundly defeated VICTORY ADMIRAL twice at 1600 and 1300 meters this season. He reunites with a familiar face in K M Chin, and is another major contender.
At 1700 meters, TRACKMASTER also combats well on dirt, having once defeated GOLDEN SIK LIK through the slop last season, and simply trounced TURQUOISE SONG in this campaign. Though weighing out with an unfavourable impost, he should also be in the mix.
SELECTIONS: GOLDEN SIK LIK, VICTORY ADMIRAL, VIVA OCHO, TRACKMASTER & FOLSON
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
