Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Overseas Expert Column for Takarazuka Kinen(Naohiro Goda)


S2-1 Takarazuka Kinen

Despite the withdrawal of obvious favourite ORFEVRE, the G1 Takarazuka Kinen is still an exciting contest, with top-class contenders and candidates who could be giant-killers.

The runners for this race are decided by fan ballot, and the horse who got the second most votes after ORFEVRE, was GOLD SHIP, a 4-y-o colt by STAY GOLD, who has won three Graded Stakes. He was given the highest official rating by handicappers in the three-year-old division of the 2012 Japan Thoroughbred Rankings. I do not regard him so highly however, as I have question marks about his form. Although he is the winner of G1 Kikuka Sho - the final leg of Triple Crown for three-year-olds - the field did not include the first four finishers of the G1 Japanese Derby. He also won the G1 Arima Kinen, a year-end championship race in Japan, but the field did not include either ORFEVRE or GENTILDONNA.

I also feel the G1 Takarazuka Kinen over 2,200m, is shorter than the ideal for GOLD SHIP. While I am not so brave to exclude him from my choice of five horses, I do not rate GOLD SHIP better than the fifth choice.

My first choice is GENTILDONNA, a 4-y-o filly by DEEP IMPACT, and the reigning Horse of the Year in Japan. As expectations were very high, it was disappointing for the Japanese fans to see her beaten into second place in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic in March. However, the winner was ST NICHOLAS ABBEY, who subsequently recorded a historic third victory in the G1 Coronation Cup at Epsom in UK, indicating she was beaten by an exceptional horse in Dubai. She proved she was one of the best middle-distance horses in the world, by beating SHARETA and DUNADEN in that race, both of whom are European-trained G1 winners. As for the field on Sunday, it does not include either ST NICHOLAS ABBEY or ORFEVRE, I believe she has an outstanding chance of winning the G1 Takarazuka Kinen.

My second choice is TOSEN RA, a 5-y-o horse by DEEP IMPACT. I have got the impression from his recent form that he is now improving significantly. Very well-bred TOSEN RA has been highly regarded by connections since day one when he started pre-training. For example, Yutaka Take, the rider of TOSEN RA on Sunday, has been saying that he reminds him of DEEP IMPACT, whom he partnered to seven G1 victories. Though it has taken more time than expected, it looks like TOSEN RA has now matured enough to meet his high expectations, and he has a good chance of finishing second on Sunday.

I understand the horse whom we should not neglect is FENOMENO, a 4-y-o colt by STAY GOLD. The G1 Tenno Sho (Spring), which he won in April, was a very tough race for him and I am concerned he will still be in top form. Provided however, he is able to reproduce his form in that race, I rate him my third choice.

SILPORT, a 8-y-o horse by WHITE MUZZLE, is the only runner who has early speed in the field, and is expected to set the pace. Provided he sets his own tempo, he has a chance to spring a big upset.

SELECTIONS: 11. GENTILDONNA, 6. TOSEN RA, 3. FENOMENO, 5. SILPORT & 10. GOLD SHIP

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