SpeedPRO is a leading-edge Thoroughbred performance measuring system. It measures the performance of every horse that races in Hong Kong and gives horseplayers these measurements for the last 7 starts of every horse engaged in the upcoming race meeting.
Part 1: ENERGY FIGURE
Understanding Energy Figure
SpeedPRO “Energy Figure” reflects the idea that the horse getting to the line first, and carrying the most weight, will be the horse that has expended the greatest amount of energy. At top end of the HK class system, these energy numbers may roughly align, or be on a similar quantum with, the established International Ratings published by the IFHA (International Federation of Horseracing Authorities).
One point on the Energy scale is approximately equal to a half length. So if two horses finish a half length apart, and they are carrying the same weight, the winner will have a final Energy figure one point higher than the second horse. More accurately, 5 points should correspond to 2.25 lengths.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN AN ENERGY FIGURE:
A horse’s final Energy figure is a combination of these variables:
- CLASS OF RACE
- WEIGHT CARRIED
- SPEED and TIME
- EASE OF VICTORY
- BEATEN MARGIN
- RACE QUALITY
To expand on these categories:
- The Class of the race.
Obviously it takes more energy to win (with an equal weight) in Class 2 than it does in Class 3, because the animal is meeting better horses in the higher grade (C2). This is simply proved by looking at time standards, which consistently get faster as you go up in class. The class of each race in the SpeedPRO system is fitted accurately, down to the very last pound.
- Weight carried
The maths surrounding the effect of weight carried by a horse is actually quite complex, but SpeedPRO has done all the work for you by including the effect of weight carried within the Energy figure.
- Speed and Time
It is the effect of time. Clearly, the horse that gets from the barriers to the finishing post in the fastest time will win the race. But accurately analysing time is another science in itself. Again, SpeedPRO does the work for you, and all Energy figures include the true effect of time.
- Ease of Victory
It is quite a subjective thing, and one person’s opinion may be quite different from another’s. At SpeedPRO we allow for the “hidden merit” in horse’s performances, including the softness of victory in a winning horse. We do declare, however, that we prefer to err on the conservative side because many horses that seem to have lengths up their sleeve, when it comes to a proper test, have relatively little in reserve.
- Beaten Margin.
SpeedPRO gives customers the bottom-line benefit of some complex algorithms to include a modernised effect of beaten margin in the Energy Figures for non-winning horses.
- Race Quality
You often hear commentators talk about this being a “good form race” or a “questionable form race”. SpeedPRO gets deeply scientific with this and actually measures Race Quality, right down a level of accuracy of 5% of a horse length (e.g. one point = half (50%) of a length, one tenth of a point is therefore equal to 5% of a length = 0.05 length). This information is included for the benefit of the customers in a horse’s Energy figure.
Because all six categories across weight, time and margin can be converted to the same unit, horse lengths, they can therefore be included into one single Energy Figure for the benefit of racing fans.
SO WHAT ENERGY IS REQUIRED?
The ENERGY REQUIRED (ER) is the ENERGY figure that this horse will have to deliver in order to win this race, assuming the Race Quality is “average” for this class. The ER number includes such vital information as the exact class of this race (down to the very last pound) and the effect of the horse’s handicap weight, and the historical knowledge of how an “average” race might be measured and recognised.
SpeedPRO gives every horse an ENERGY REQUIRED (ER) figure for his upcoming race. So if your selection has Energy Figures of 90 or better, and the ER figure is only 89, then your selection ranks as one of the “winning chances” in this race.
Given Horse A with Energy Required of 100, while Your Estimated Energy is 101, the Energy Difference of Horse A is +1.
Given Horse B with Energy Required of 95, while Your Estimated Energy is 98, the Energy Difference of Horse A is +3.
Energy Difference of Horse B (+3) is 2 points higher than Energy Difference of Horse A (+1). Even if Horse A can deliver higher energy figure, the winning chance of Horse B is higher than Horse A.
Part 2: Putting it all together
The Energy Grid is where it all comes together. The grid looks at the horse in the following energetic ways:
- ENERGY REQUIRED (ER)
The energy figure required to win this race.
- LAST FIVE RUNS
The actual Energy Figures this horse has achieved at his last five starts. To help give this context, we have listed the course and distance, together with the rail placement or a special notation for the all-weather track (AWT).
- BEST, LAST 12 MONTHS
BEST AT DISTANCE, LAST 12 MONTHS
To further help, we offer two Energy Figures of special significance. Firstly, the best number he has achieved in the last 12 months and. Secondly, his best at today’s race distance over the same timeframe. All horse players recognise the significance of race distance in assessments. For some horses, their optimum distance spectrum is so tight that they only have one course & distance where they can actually win races. Versatile horses are much less common than distance-limited or even specialist horses.
- SPEEDPRO ENERGY
SpeedPRO Energy is to provide the estimated energy figure on each runner for reference. It makes use of the past energy figures that a horse has delivered, and considers extra factors in coming race such as “likely settling position in Speedmap”, “estimated race pace”, “how the jockey delivers”, “anticipated improvement of a horse” and “fitness rating”.
- SPEEDPRO ENERGY DIFFERENCE
SpeedPRO Energy Difference will tell you the difference between the ENERGY REQUIRED (ER) figure and the SpeedPRO Energy figure. The largest number on the top of table will likely be your top-rated horse. The lowest number at the bottom will be the despised outsider. The positive numbers (i.e., difference greater than zero) are the “winning chances”.
- YOUR TURN!
Now comes the fun part. Given all this key information (and remember, there are Energy Figure for the last 7 starts on the form pages, if required). What Energy Figure do you think each horse can do in tomorrow’s race? This is where our customers can use their skill as a horse player and form analyst.
- The final column will tell you the difference between the ENERGY REQUIRED (ER) figure and your predicted Energy Figure. The largest number will likely be your top-rated horse, the lowest number will be the despised outsider. The positive numbers (i.e., difference greater than zero) are the “winning chances”.
- After you have decided what Energy figure each horse might do in this upcoming race, click on the toggle next to the heading “Energy Difference” --- the table will be sorted in descending order for that column. You now have your own list of horses, in the order of your analysis. If you want to make a change, simply alter the numbers and click the button again to sort the final column based on the amended values.
EXTRA TIPS TO ANALYSTS IN TRAINING:
READ THE PATTERNSDoing form with Energy Figures is not as simple as giving a horse the rating he achieved at his last start. You must read the form patterns. And for horses which are last start winners, on an improving form cycle, giving them the face-value of their last start win may not be enough. Allow for continued improvement, especially in younger horses.
FIVE POINT RULERemember for a particularly exciting young horse, like ROMANTIC WARRIOR or CALIFORNIA SPANGLE as examples, their next rating figure could easily be FIVE POINTS higher than their last start win. Do not make the mistake of putting an artificial ceiling on these smart young horses that seem to be on their way to the top. But be sensible --- even the champions like BEAUTY GENERATION or GOLDEN SIXTY did not reach the top overnight. Do not treat every smart young horse like a future champion! Get involved with this and learn through experience how to tell the difference between the Prince and the Pretender.
SOME GO UP, SOME GO DOWNThe good analyst will also recognise when a winning run or a positive sequence of improvement has come to an end. In Class Five horses, that winning run usually amounts to one win, because the energy in their “equine batteries” is only sufficient to cover one win and after that, their batteries are effectively emptied. For better-class horses, they hold it together for longer. We agree that it is not an exact science --- these are horses, not machines --- but teach yourself to read the signs.
STUDY THE SPEEDMAPYou also need to look at the Speedmap. It attempts to forecast the running positions of each horse after settling in the race. It can tell us whether a horse is likely to be trapped wide on the turns - meaning it will cover more distance than other horses - as well as horses that will be suited by the way the race is likely to be run. This may affect the estimation of energy figure.
HAVE FUN WITH ITThe developers of SpeedPRO encourage enthusiastic racing followers to have fun with this. Horseracing is an intellectual game and there is great satisfaction to be had in getting the answers right, and finding tomorrow’s winners. However, a word of warning --- do not regard this as your short-cut to easy riches because there is no such thing as “easy money”. But it is our sincere hope that SpeedPRO will give your more enjoyment of your horseracing and possibly a deeper understanding of this great sport as well. As always, anyone with addictive behaviours or a possible gambling problem is advised to get professional help.