Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Overseas Expert Column for the Japan Cup (Naohiro Goda)


S1-1 Japan Cup 

The Group 1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on October 7th, proved that ORFEVRE - a 4yo colt by STAY GOLD - is one of the best performers over 2400 metres on turf in the world. He is one of the best home-bred horses to come out of Japan, but I am skeptical about his chances in Tokyo on Sunday.

It is well-known that ORFEVRE is a horse with a tricky temperament. He threw his rider to the ground after passing the finishing line when winning a maiden race, and did a similar deed to his jockey in the Group 1 Kikuka Sho - Japanese St. Leger in October 2011. He also bolted towards the outer fence after taking the lead 1200 metres from the finish in the Group 2 Hanshin Daishoten in March this year. His unusual and wayward tendencies are inherited from his sire STAY GOLD.

Remember what STAY GOLD was like when he was in training? He failed to win a Grade One Stakes in Japan, and the Hong Kong Vase at Sha Tin in 2001 was his first and only Grade One Stakes he captured. It is recognized the best performance of his career came in Dubai Sheema Classic in 2001, when he beat FANTASTIC LIGHT, who was crowned Emirates World Series Racing Champion twice, and winning 6 Grade One Stakes in four different countries. His performances abroad, were arguably better than his home form, and it is analyzed that the unusual climate and circumstances in foreign countries might have blocked his tricky temperament, and allowed him to run on his merits.

Please remember ORFEVRE behaved very well and showed no sign of his strange character at all when he was in France. I suppose unusual surroundings for him at Chantilly and Longchamp may have helped his willful temperament. He is at home now, enjoying his usual and familiar climate, and I feel we do not know how ORFEVRE will behave on Sunday at Tokyo.

The horse whom we can place much more confidence in Japan Cup, is RULERSHIP, a 5yo horse by KING KAMEHAMEHA, and the winner of the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Sha Tin in April. He is a good horse, and his performance last time out – Tenno Sho, the autumn edition of Group 1 Emperor's Cup - where he finished third, 1 3/4 lengths behind EISHIN FLASH, is encouraging. It was his first start since June, and after failing to break well, could not take a favourable position in the big field. I believe he will run much better in Japan Cup on Sunday, and has good chance to claim his second Grade One Stakes success.

I cannot find a horse who has early speed, so I expect the initial pace will not be strong. That tempo will suit EISHIN FLASH, a 5yo horse by KING'S BEST, who prefers a slowly-run race, like the Tenno Sho which he won. The Japan Cup is also run over the same course and same distance as the Japanese Derby, which EISHIN FLASH won in 2010.

MOUNT ATHOS, a 5yo gelding from UK, is my first choice among the handful of foreign raiders. He has improved rapidly throughout current season, and has shown he can handle firm conditions well in the UK.

The standard of current three-year-olds in Japan is high, and I believe we should not discount FENOMENO, 3yo colt by STAY GOLD.

I believe the firm going track at Tokyo will not suit the 'Arc' winner, SOLEMIA, a 4yo filly by POLIGLOTE. I would also discount the chances of GENTILDONNA, a 3yo filly by DEEP IMPACT, as the past record shows the Japan Cup is a very tough race for three-year-old fillies.

SELECTIONS: 13.RULERSHIP, 17.ORFEVRE,8.EISHIN FLASH, 5.MOUNT ATHOS & 4.FENOMENO



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