 Overseas Expert Column - Wally Pyrah |
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| With a mark of excellence in the business for over 30 years, Wally Pyrah has been notable to many in UK's racing industry. He had long been a key editorial member of The Racing Post, UK's authoritative racing/ sports wagering press, and is integral part of the expert cast in various preview shows - on screen and through the air – to major international racedays on a regular basis, such as the European classics. | |
Overseas Expert Column for Kentucky Derby (Wally Pyrah)
S1-1 Kentucky Derby
No horse-race in the US will get more media attention and recognition than the 139th running of the Kentucky Derby. The race is widely recognised as “the most exciting two minutes in sports” by its home country.
Factor in ground conditions, and the barrier draw, before making a final decision, as the weather forecast is for rain and a chance of a thunderstorm, which could make the dirt track ‘sloppy’ instead of the normal fast and dry conditions.
The classic style for a winner of the Kentucky Derby is, to make an accelerated move on the turn into the home stretch, and seize command in the final 200 metres. One such horse to show that attribute last season, was NORMANDY INVASION, although failed by a nose to catch OVERANALYZE in the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct in November. He has had excuses in both his races this season, firstly missing the start at Fair Grounds – did well to finish fifth – and then finishing strongly to nearly catch VERRAZANO in a slowly-run 1800 metres Group 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, with VYJACK third. He is potentially a big improver and should relish the Derby distance.
The undefeated VERRAZANO is perfectly placed from the barrier 14 with early speed types like FALLING SKY, OXBOW and GOLDENCENTS likely to tow him along into a good position around the first turn. Having included the Group 1 Wood Memorial and Group 2 Tampa Bay Derby – JAVA’S WAR , three lengths behind, was second – amongst his four victories, it is understandable he is at the forefront of the odds, but there is a slight suspicion about him – being a speedy type of him – staying the 2000 metres. It’s also worth bearing in mind, the nation’s favourite trainer Todd Pletcher, who handles 25% of the Kentucky Derby field, has a record of 1 win from 31 runners in the big race, and six of those have finished last or next to last!
One horse, who on past performances looks certain to stay the gruelling 2000 metres trip is ORB. Trainer Claude McGaughey III doesn’t run horses in the Derby unless they have a chance - only saddled one runner since EASY GOER finished second in 1989 - and in ORB, he brings a steadily improving horse on the back of four straight wins going to Kentucky. Having won the Group 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes and then the Group 1 Florida Derby – outstayed ITSMYLUCKYDAY – he looks just the type to bring his stamina into play down the home stretch, especially if the early tempo is quick.
REVOLUTIONARY will have to overcome the negative barrier 3, but has in the saddle three-time Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel who has made it his trademark to slide along the rails and pounce late at Churchill Downs. Both Borel and trainer Todd Pletcher teamed up with 2010 Kentucky Derby winner SUPER SAVER and both will be hoping REVOLUTIONARY can capitalise on an expected quick tempo. The three-year-old has overcome torrid runs to win both his prep races, including the Group 1 Louisiana Derby. The competition was not top-class in both races, but there is a thought he will be seen in a better light when tackling tougher opposition. There is little doubt he will stay the trip.
Having been one of the leading juveniles last season, OVERANALYZE confirmed his lofty reputation by beating FRAC DADDY by over four lengths, conceding 4lbs, on his seasonal debut in the Group 1 Arkansas Derby. The form looks suspicious however, with his rivals proving moderate, the race favourite WAR ACADEMY pulled up, and the slow race time. Still he did beat NORMANDY INVASION in the Remsen Stakes last year, and has proved a very tough horse to overtake down the home stretch.
Others for the short-list include Louisiana Derby runner up MYLUTE ridden by Rosie Napravnik, seeking to be the first female jockey to win the Derby, GOLDENCENTS trained by Doug O’Neill who is trying to win back-to-back Derbies, and ITSMYLUCKYDAY who was disappointing in the Florida Derby, trainer Edward Plesa Jr was quoted as saying “He wasn’t cranked up for his best effort here, but will be 110% for the Derby”
Conclusion: NORMANDY INVASION could be the value play at the odds, while ORB looks the safest proposition from those at the forefront of the betting. Watch out – trouble-free run permitting – for the home stretch REVOLUTIONARY will mount a big challenge, while OVERANALYZE and VERRAZANO, provided they stay the trip, have frame chances.
SELECTIONS: 5. NORMANDY INVASION, 16. ORB, 3. REVOLUTIONARY & 9. OVERANALYZE
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