 Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Overseas Expert Column for Sprinters Stakes Day (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 3yo and up WFA
DARK MULLEIN won in this class at Nakayama in September 2012, and has been running consistently in recent starts. She is my first pick of this race. Her previous start two weeks ago was her first start on dirt. Although the track was muddy after heavy rain, she handled the dirt very well, and finished a good second beaten only by half a length by DEAR G ROSE. She is a genuine and tough filly, and I believe she has a very good chance to win this race. Perhaps, she is my pick of the day.
SAKURA ISPIRATO is the danger to DARK MULLEIN. He has run only five times, and collected his first win at Fukushima in July, which was his fourth start. After that, he had a two months break, and returned to the racecourse three weeks ago, where he finished second to MIYABI REFINE over 1,200m on dirt at Nakayama. He is fresh and full of passion to run, and a sprint race on dirt looks to be very suitable for him. I believe he will break fast and try to make all.
I think the danger horse in this field is LONGING TO YOU. She was well beaten in her latest race over 1,200m on turf at Hakodate on 24th August. However, this was her first race since May, and she looked in need of that race. She has trained much better in the morning since then, and I believe she is now ready to run her best race.
DARK SEEKER has been winless through 11 starts at JRA racecourse - he picked up his only win in regional racing at Hokkaido in November 2012. On the other hand, he is tough and has finished in the first four in 8 races from 12 starts. I believe DARK SEEKER has good chance to finish in the first four in this race.
As I regard DARK MULLEIN so highly, I cannot neglect THURSTON DENVER, who finished third at Nakayama on 15th September won by DEAR G ROSE. THURSTON DENVER was beaten only for neck by DARK MULLEIN on that occasion.
SELECTIONS: 14.DARK MULLEIN, 4.SAKURA ISPIRATO, 11.LONGING TO YOU, 10.DARK SEEKER & 16.THURSTON DENVER
S1-2 3yo and up WFA
I believe EDEN ROCK is the horse who has the best potential in this field. He won a maiden for unraced two-year-olds over 1,800m on turf at Sapporo in July last year, then finished third in a Group 3 over same distance a month later. Since then, he was third in a Listed race over 1600m in this racecourse on 30th September 2012. Expectations were high prior to his spring campaign earlier this year, but he has been disappointing in his five starts so far. He has been given a good break, and freshened up for an autumn campaign, and has actually trained well in the mornings recently. I believe he has a very good chance to win this race if he reproduces his form of last autumn.
Expectations were also high for MEINER BULL’S EYE, as he was runner-up to MEINER HO O, subsequent winner of G1 NHK Mile Cup, in a Listed race over the same course and distance as this race on 5th January 2013. But he did not manage to win any race in the spring. He was given four months break and returned to Niigata Racecourse in August and he was well beaten. However, he looked in need of that race last time, and I believe he will improve on that effort.
This is the first race after having a summer break for RED VIVO, who has been regarded highly by his connections. He has trained impressively in the mornings at Miho Training Centre, and I think he has good chance to finish in first three, if he can reproduce his form when finishing second in the race over this course and distance in March.
WERFEN was a winner of maiden at Tokyo over 1,400m on dirt in June. That was his twelve start, of which eleven have been on dirt. His only start on turf was a maiden race for unraced two-year-olds on 29th September 2012, which was his racecourse debut. He finished eleventh in a 13-runner field. He has however trained well on turf in the mornings, and I think he may be able to act on turf well now.
MEINER MILANO, three-year-old colt by STAY GOLD, who has good late kick, is my fifth choice in this field.
SELECTIONS: 12.EDEN ROCK, 7.MEINER BULL’S EYE, 8.RED VIVO, 5.WERFEN & 9.MEINER MILANO
S1-3 Katsuura Tokubetsu
There is no outstanding horse in this handicap race of middle class, and it looks very open. I think the runners who won lower class races last time out, and compete in middle class company for the first time, will have good chance.
The performances of SMART ORION in last two starts were both good enough to impress. After a losing streak of four races over 1,400m to 1800m, the connections of SMART ORION sent him to a maiden over 1,200m on turf, and this change of strategy worked well. He won a maiden at Hakodate in August, which was his fifth start, by three lengths, and subsequently won an allowance graduation class race 1,200m four weeks ago. It is an encouraging factor that Yutaka Take has been booked for him on Sunday.
The performance by KOYO ARES in an allowance event over course and distance last time was impressive, and I believe we should regard him highly. He has the experience and ability to run in better class. It was in the better race over 1,200m on turf at Fukushima in April that he finished second. Provided KOYO ARES is able to reproduce that form, I think he has good chance to finish in the first two on Sunday.
RED GARCIA, a four-year-old colt by DAIWA MAJOR, was well beaten last time out over course and distance. However, there were several reasons for this poor performance. He failed to break fast, there was no room at the top of homestretch, and the ground was wet, which he dislikes. I think we should ignore that form, and not overlook him on Sunday.
My fourth choice is BALLADE SONG, a five-year-old mare by HEART’S CRY. She is a consistent performer, finishing fourth and fifth in the last two races, both of which are races of middle class over 1,200m on turf. Her time record over 1,200m is the fastest of all runners in this field. She has a good chance to finish in the first four, provided the ground on Sunday is not too soft.
I think the performance of YOSHIKAWAKUN, three-year-old filly by ADMIRE MOON, when finishing fourth in a middle class race over 1,000m on turf at Niigata four weeks ago, was a creditable effort, as it was her first start in middle class. She has trained well at the Miho Training Centre since then, and I would like to select her as my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 13.SMART ORION, 2.KOYO ARES, 6.RED GARCIA, 9.BALLADE SONG & 1.YOSHIKAWAKUN
S1-4 Nagatsuki Stakes
This is the first start for several good horses after a lengthy summer break, and it is very important to find out if they are fit and ready to run.
For example, this is the first start for the American-bred A SHIN REVOLVER since 26th May. He is a good and consistent performer, who finished in the frame in all his last six races, all of which are of upper class.
It means he should be competitive in this company, but his workout at the Ritto Training Centre ten days ago looked dull, and suggests that he might need this race to gain peak fitness. While I cannot ignore him, I cannot regard him so highly.
The same thing can be said of GEYERSWORTH, a three-year-old colt by DAIWA MAJOR, who has not run since being well beaten in the G3 Radio Nikkei Sho three months ago. He had previously been very impressive when winning a maiden by seven lengths over course and distance in January, and I thought he would be a Graded Stakes winner on dirt. He had also finished second to KIZUNA, the subsequent winner of the G1 Japanese Derby and G2 Prix Niel, in the G3 Mainichi Hai at Hanshin, I was convinced he had the class to win Graded Stakes races on turf as well. Hence, he should have a good chance to win on Sunday, provided he is in top form. His two pieces of morning trackwork at Miho Training Centre last week, however, were both flat and mediocre, and I judge he is not ready to run to his best.
My first pick is FLAME OF PEACE, a four-year-old colt by WAR EMBLEM. He was ridden by Masayoshi Ebina and ran well when finishing third in the G3 March Stakes over course and distance in March, and was subsequently a good second in a race of upper class over 1,800m on dirt at Hanshin two weeks ago - his first start since July. It is another encouraging factor that Masayoshi Ebina is booked again on Sunday.
ANTONIO PISA has not run since 18th May, when he was well beaten in the G3 Heian Stakes. He has been training impressively in the morning at Ritto Training Centre, and I think he has good chance to finish in the first three, especially if he can reproduce his form when winning a race of upper class over 1,800m on dirt at Nakayama in March.
It was a good effort by JEBEL MUSA who finished fourth in a Group 3 last time. The opposition looks tougher here, but I still think he has a chance of being in the first three.
SELECTIONS: 8.FLAME OF PEACE, 13.ANTONIO PISA, 7.JEBEL MUSA, 10.GEYERSWORTH & 1.A SHIN REVOLVER
S1-5 Sprinters Stakes/span>
Many people, including myself, thought the 5-y-o LORD KANALOA was invincible when running over races shorter than 1,600m, therefore, his defeat in the G2 Centaur Stakes on September 8th at Hanshin was bitterly disappointing. It is a crucial factor to find the reason(s) why he failed to catch HAKUSAN MOON, 4-y-o colt by ADMIRE MOON on that occasion, and experienced his first defeat since he was runner-up to EPICE AROME in the 2012 edition of Centaur Stakes.
Was 128lbs which he carried, while HAKUSAN MOON carried 123lbs, too tough for him? No. LORD KANALOA won the G1 Yasuda Kinen and G2 Hankyu Hai carrying 128lbs earlier this year. Was he fit enough after having three months break? Yes, he was fit enough, as he had trained impressively in the morning prior to Centaur Stakes. His past performance have proved that “fresher is better” for him, as he has won seven races from nine starts, after having more than two months break.
So what happened to him? I am anxious about his mentality, as I did not feel he showed his usual strong determination to win in the closing stage of Centaur Stakes. He won the Yasuda Kinen in June, and I think it was the toughest race for him in his entire career. The 1,600m course at Tokyo is much tougher than the 1,600m at other racecourses and it is said, horses require the stamina of 2,000m races to be at their best. I have seen many horses who have lost their spirit after having a tough race, and I am afraid LORD KANALOA might feel that “I do not want to fight any more” after that. If my reasoning is right, LORD KANALOA will be beaten again in the Sprinters Stakes, but I understand we cannot ignore him.
My first pick is SAKURA GOSPEL, 5-y-o horse by SAKURA PRESIDENT. He finished fourth in the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen in March, and was beaten only for one and three quarter length by LORD KANALOA. The best stage for him is 1,200m at Nakayama, as he is unbeaten in two starts at this course and distance. He has trained impressively since his second in the Toki Stakes last month, which was his first start since June.
DREAM VALENTINO finished second to LORD KANALOA in the Takamatsunomiya Kinen in March, having previously won the 2012 G3 Hakodate Sprint Stakes beating LORD KANALOA. He has also trained very well since the Centaur Stakes, where he finished third behind HAKUSAN MOON and LORD KANALOA.
I understand many people regard HAKUSAN MOON, winner of the Centaur Stakes and the G3 Ibis Summer Dash, highly. However, it looked like everything went to plan from start to finish, when he won the Centaur Stakes, and there is more than one speed horse in this field in FOREVER MARK, I think the Sprinters Stakes will be difficult race for HAKUSAN MOON, and evaluate him no better than my fourth choice.
My last pick is MEINER ETERNEL who has an excellent late kick. As I think the pace of race will be very strong, I think he has good chance to be in the first five.
SELECTIONS: 13.SAKURA GOSPEL, 6.DREAM VALENTINO, 10.LORD KANALOA, 7.HAKUSAN MOON & 14.MEINER ETERNEL
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4: Banker - 8.FLAME OF PEACE
Selections -13.ANTONIO PISA, 7.JEBEL MUSA, 10.GEYERSWORTH & 1.A SHIN REVOLVER
S1-5: Banker - 13.SAKURA GOSPEL
Selections -6.DREAM VALENTINO, 10.LORD KANALOA,7.HAKUSAN MOON & 14.MEINER ETERNEL
S1-6 Edogawa Tokubetsu
I think this is a competitive field of middle class runners.
The performance of UNBOUND, an American-bred four-year-old filly by DISTORTED HUMOR, in an allowance race over 1,200m on dirt at Niigata on 31th August was really impressive. She broke very fast, led all the way, and won by five lengths, covering the final three furlongs in 36.1 seconds, which was the fastest of the 15 runners’ field. The winning time of 1 minute and 10.2 seconds proved he is a major player here. Though this is the first time for UNBOUND to compete in middle class, I think she is good enough to win here.
The standard of the Shukugawa Tokubetsu (dirt 1,200m) three weeks ago, where the winner SWEET JEWELRY broke the track record, was high, and I think the form of REGIS, who finished second there, should be regarded highly. Prior to that, he had finished second and fourth in June and July respectively, both of which are middle class races. It means REGIS can run well either on fast and muddy ground, and can adapt either to a strong pace or a slowly run race.
The horse who led and set very strong pace in Shukugawa Tokubetsu was the American-bred three-year-old colt EARTH ZEUS. In the end, he finished fifth beaten less than two lengths by REGIS, and I understand it was good effort. As far as races over 1,200m on dirt, EARTH ZEUS has won two races and a second from four starts, and this race is ideal for him.
LEE SAM HEARTS was last seen as the winner of a lower class allowance race over 1,000m on dirt at Sapporo a year ago. She has run twelve times and it was the first start on dirt for the five-year-old mare. It looks like she acts better on dirt than on turf. I believe she is capable of running well in a middle class race over 1,200m on dirt.
Another American-bred filly RASHIQ had an unlucky trip when badly bumped by at the top of the home stretch, when finishing fifth in Funkawan Tokubetsu, a stakes race of middle class over 1,000m on dirt at Hakodate in July. Considering it was her first start in the middle class, I think it was good performance. While she has not run since then, she has trained well at Miho Training Centre, and her breeze work ten days ago went really well. I believe RASHIQ has a good chance to be in the first five.
SELECTIONS: 4.UNBOUND, 14.REGIS, 9.EARTH ZEUS, 1.LEE SAM HEARTS & 13.RASHIQ
TREBLE SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-4:8.FLAME OF PEACE & 13.ANTONIO PISA
S1-5:13.SAKURA GOSPEL, 6.DREAM VALENTINO & 10.LORD KANALOA
S1-6:4.UNBOUND, 14.REGIS & 9.EARTH ZEUS
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