 Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Overseas Expert Column for Tenno Sho Autumn (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 Tenno Sho Autumn
To be frank, this is a disappointing renewal of Tenno Sho Autumn, one of the most prestigious races in Japan. The field lacks star quality with the likes of ORFEVRE and KIZUNA, the reigning best older male horse and the best three-year-old in Japan respectively, not entering, as this race comes too soon after having tough races in France three weeks ago. GOLD SHIP, winner of the G1 Takarazuka Kinen in June, also skips the race, as connections believe 2,000m is too short for the four-year-old. FENOMENO, winner of the Tenno Sho Spring, and the G1 Satsuki Sho winner LOGOTYPE, are also both sidelined because of injuries during the lead-up to this race.
After losing many of the divisional champions, this looks a two-horse race between GENTILDONNA, a four-year-old filly by DEEP IMPACT, and EISHIN FLASH, a six-year-old horse by KING’S BEST.
This is the first race for GENTILDONNA – winner of the Triple Tiara for three-year-old fillies back in 2012 - since her G1 Takarazuka Kinen run on June 23rd. I have a report from the Ritto training centre that says she is not fully tuned-up yet, as her ultimate goal will be the G1 Japan Cup on November 24th, where she will try to complete back-to-back victories. The 2,000m trip is also slightly shorter than ideal for the reigning Horse of the Year. Although these are negative factors, my first choice is still GENTILDONNA, because the stage of race is at Tokyo, where she won the G1 Japanese Oaks in May 2012 by five lengths, and the G1 Japan Cup in November 2012 defeating ORFEVRE. As she loves the extended gallop in Tokyo, I believe she can still manage to win on Sunday.
EISHIN FLASH, who likes Tokyo Racecourse as well, is my second choice. He is the winner of last year’s Tenno Sho Autumn and the G1 Japanese Derby at Tokyo back in 2010. He is still in top form, judged on his G2 Mainichi Okan victory, the most important prep-race for the Tenno Sho Autumn, in Tokyo three weeks ago. On the other hand, he is an inconsistent horse, who sometime runs poorly in his next start after an impressive performance, and I cannot rate him higher than GENTILDONNA.
I think the candidate who could cause an upset is UNCOILED, a four-year-old colt by GIANT’S CAUSEWAY. He was a decent three-year-old a year ago, and has improved significantly in the last 12 months. The 2,000m test at Tokyo Racecourse, should suit him the best.
As it is expected Tokyo is hit by heavy rain this weekend, my fourth and fifth choices are the horses who like wet ground. TOKEI HALO has won three Graded Stakes over 2,000m in a row, and DANON BALLADE should have good chance to finish in the first five.
SELECTIONS: 9. GENTILDONNA, 6. EISHIN FLASH, 13. UNCOILED, 11. TOKEI HALO & 16. DANON BALLADE
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