 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
|
|---|---|
| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Overseas Expert Column for Victoria Derby Day (S1-1 to S1-6) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Coolmore Stud Stakes
RICH ENUFF is an emerging star dropping back in distance after a super 2nd in the G1 Caulfield Guineas over 1,600m. Just as importantly, he has winning G2 form in good time at this course and distance, a factor that is often crucial down the straight course at Flemington, and he looks the one to beat.
KURO has won his last four starts, including a Listed race last start in Sydney very tidily, to convince his trainer Joseph Pride that he can do himself justice in the biggest test of his career. The straight course will help, as he tends to track the speed then unleash his big finish.
RUBICK was most impressive first up at Caulfield when winning a G2 over 1,000m. He certainly looked terrific in the paddock then and he has reportedly worked very well leading to his biggest test to date. It might not hurt that he has drawn the rails either.
A G1 winner and Golden Slipper runner-up last season, EARTHQUAKE returned to form last start in a G3 at Caulfield despite carrying a welter burden of 130lbs and the horse she beat then has won well since. She seems best suited at 1,200m, has blinkers fitted for the first time and her weight allowance could be decisive at the finish.
SELECTIONS: 1.RICH ENUFF, 8.KURO, 5.RUBICK & 14.EARTHQUAKE
S1-2 Lexus Stakes
Expect a big run from SIGNOFF. His last two runs have been strong in similar company when he has placed and judging by his appearance in the paddock he should be ready to peak. Trainer Darren Weir needs him to win this race to gain a run in the Melbourne Cup and he has enlisted the services of Joao Moreira in that pursuit. Blinkers are also applied for a first time.
LORD VAN PERCY was a smart staying handicapper in England earlier this year and readily fit into the Australian pattern in a G2 at Caulfield last time over 2,400m. He will have come on for that effort and, like my top selection, needs to win this race to guarantee a start in Melbourne Cup and that has been his long-term goal.
LET’S MAKE ADEAL is a somewhat under-rated stayer who warrants respect having come from that same strong form race in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes over 2,400m at Caulfield when she finished strongly from a long way off the pace into 3rd. Trainer Nigel Blackiston is an excellent conditioner of staying horses, her improvement is anticipated and her recent trackwork has been very good.
CARAVAN ROLLS ON won the Geelong Cup last start and is another trying to sneak into the Melbourne Cup with a win here. The former British stayer finally looked as if he had acclimatized to the Australian way of racing last start and he placed in his only other start here last year when he was not in the same form as now.
SELECTIONS: 9.SIGNOFF, 3.LORD VAN PERCY, 5.LET’S MAKE ADEAL & 2.CARAVAN ROLLS ON
S1-3 Mackinnon Stakes
HE’S YOUR MAN is a lightly raced, fast improving winner of the G1 Epsom Handicap over 1,600m in Sydney, which is always a very strong form race. Joao Moreira was on board for that last gasp success on that occasion and a stepping back up in distance to 2,000m and he looks the fresh horse on the scene.
CRITERION seems better geared to this more spacious, galloping circuit rather than the tight contours of Moonee Valley where he was also checked early in the Cox Plate last Saturday. Still, he run in the race was full of merit and prior to that he ran a super 2nd to FAWKNER, probably Australia’s best horse this spring. It’s very solid form.
HAPPY TRAILS does best at this track having already two G1 wins here but he has so often been luckless at other venues, such as last weekend in the Cox Plate when he missed the start. His performance to finish less than one length from the winner was terrific and this is a chance for Damien Oliver to make up for what might have been.
Star New Zealand mare RISING ROMANCE performed superbly when touched off in the last strides into 2nd by Japanese star ADMIRE RAKTI in the Caulfield Cup. She has the ability to settle forward of midfield and finish off strongly once again.
SELECTIONS: 8.HE’S YOUR MAN, 13.CRITERION, 2.HAPPY TRAILS & 15.RISING ROMANCE
S1-4 Victoria Derby
HAMPTON COURT looks the likeliest winner having defeated a top class field last start over 2,000m in Sydney when he came from well back on the turn with a very strong finish that made one believe that he will stay this arduous 2,500m distance at Flemington.
If PREFERMENT is to win he will be the first maiden to lift the Derby since 1992. He is a terrific looking colt and tuned up for this with an excellent 2nd in the Listed race Geelong Classic over 2,200m where he stormed home to just fail. He has been a little immature on the track but gives the impression that he is improving in leaps and bounds.
Last Saturday’s G2 Moonee Valley Vase over 2,040m is often a race that throws up a Derby candidate and I was content with the performance by the runner-up there, ATMOSPHERE. He looks like a genuine stayer and he didn’t have the easiest run into the race last weekend.
A long shot to consider could be BONDEIGER who also ran in the Moonee Valley Vase last weekend but got too far out of his ground under James Winks. If he can be positioned a little closer it could stand him in good stead as I feel will genuinely see out the distance.
SELECTIONS: 1.HAMPTON COURT, 13.PREFERMENT, 11.ATMOSPHERE & 9.BONDEIGER
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (16 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 1.HAMPTON COURT, 13.PREFERMENT, 11.ATMOSPHERE & 9.BONDEIGER
S1-5: Multiple – 4.MAY’S DREAM, 2.CATKINS, 1.SWEET IDEA & 16.NEENA ROCK
S1-5 Myer Classic
MAY’S DREAM is a consistent and still improving mare and looks ready for G1 level. Her lead up form has given every indication the progression to 1,600m will be perfect. I also think the big track and the prospect of a high-pressure race will suit perfectly.
CATKINS ran third last start to SWEET IDEA and ran second in this race a year ago. On her day she is one of the best mares in the country so I’m usually prepared to give her the benefit of the doubt and she has drawn in midfield.
SWEET IDEA is possibly the best mare at 1,400m in Australia. She has been in great form and held a number of this field a fortnight ago in a G2 at Caulfield – however, this 1,600m at Flemington is a different proposition and it could just test her stamina even if she has drawn the inside gate. The distance is the main query against her.
NEENA ROCK is a consistent mare and she won a G3 gutsily on her last start in Sydney for this jockey Tye Angland. She has drawn well this time and could make the frame at decent odds.
SELECTIONS: 4.MAY’S DREAM, 2.CATKINS, 1.SWEET IDEA & 16.NEENA ROCK
S1-6 Linlithgow Stakes
DEEP FIELD is a really exciting Sydney galloper who has created an enormous impression winning all four starts by big margins and looks impossible to oppose. He also did a nice piece of work at Flemington earlier this week. He is likely to race forward and burn his rivals off.
THAT’S A GOOD IDEA lost nothing in defeat when second to the selection DEEP FIELD last time in Sydney and could be among the closest chasers again if it is to turn into a procession for the likely favourite.
BEL SPRINTER has been an injury-plagued galloper but Hong Kong racing fans would have seen him return to form at Caulfield last start when he dead-heated with MIRACLES OF LIFE for first and when he appeared more relaxed than usual in the parade ring. I would concede that his best form is around turns than down a straight, but he has too much ability to dismiss.
IN CAHOOTS is an underrated sprinter racing in great form and he is never out of the reckoning. He always seems to be competitive is good class races so must be considered for exotics.
SELECTIONS: 6.DEEP FIELD, 9.THAT’S A GOOD IDEA, 1.BEL SPRINTER & 4.IN CAHOOTS
QUARTET SELECTIONS (24 unit bets):
Multiple – 6.DEEP FIELD, 9.THAT’S A GOOD IDEA, 1.BEL SPRINTER & 4.IN CAHOOTS
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
