Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Overseas Expert Column for Tenno Sho Autumn (S2-1) (Naohiro Goda)

S2-1 Tenno Sho Autumn

It will be very interesting to see how the three-year-old generation, compare against their older generation in major races in Japan this autumn. If we look back in those competitions at the division of 2,000m so far in Europe and the US, we find the three-year-old classic generation has been doing very well.

In the UK, the G1 International Stakes at York in August was won by AUSTRALIA, winner of Epsom Derby and Irish Derby earlier in the year, with runner-up THE GREY GATSBY, having previously won the French Derby. In Ireland, the same two horses dominated the G1 Irish Champion Stakes, with THE GREY GATSBY gaining his revenge. On the west coast of the US, SHARED BELIEF, champion juvenile in 2013, won the G1 Pacific Classic, beating older horses, while on the east coast, TONALIST, winner of the G1 Belmont Stakes in June, won the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup easily. Recently in Australia, ADELAIDE, a raider from Ireland and a northern hemisphere bred three-year-old, won the G1 Cox Plate.

As we have seen before, the wave of those tendencies can reach Japan, and I think I should back a three-year-old in this race.

Another reason why we should follow a three-year-old in the Tenno Sho Autumn, is the absence of JUST A WAY, comfortable winner of this race a year ago. The world’s highest rated horse has now been given a short break after returning from Paris, where he was well beaten in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. The field of the Tenno Sho Autumn also does not include a flag bearer for the older generation.

Therefore, my first pick is ISLA BONITA, a three-year-old colt by FUJI KISEKI, who was an impressive winner of the G1 Satsuki Sho, the first leg of triple crown over 2,000m at Nakayama. His performance in the G2 St Lite Kinen on 21 September - his first start since the G1 Tokyo Yushun on 1 June - proves he is now a much better horse than he was in spring. ISLA BONITA is also the master of Tokyo Racecourse, having won four races from five starts on the track.

Among older horses, I like horses that have improved a lot through the current season, and fancy them more than proven G1 winners.

My second pick is SPIELBERG, a five-year-old horse by DEEP IMPACT, who had been highly regarded from day one at the Kazuo Fujisawa stable. It has taken him sometime to mature and it was good effort to finish third in the G2 Mainichi Okan last time out. I believe he will now be competitive in G1 races.

My third pick is MARTINBOROUGH, another five-year-old horse by DEEP IMPACT. The late kick he used when winning the G3 Niigata Kinen on 7 September was very strong. Though he has not run at Tokyo racetrack, I believe the long homestretch of Tokyo should suit him.

I understand we should not neglect FENOMENO, who completed back-to-back wins of the G1 Tenno Sho Spring over 3,200m, and finished second in this race 2 years ago and EPIPHANEIA, winner of the G1 Kikuka Sho last year. This is the first start for both of them after a six-month break however, and I think they will need this race to reach 100% fitness.

It is obvious from past records that the performance of GENTILDONNA, having her first start after a long break, is poor, and she is overlooked.

SELECTIONS: 15.ISLA BONITA, 4.SPIELBERG, 14.MARTINBOROUGH, 9.FENOMENO & 5.EPIPHANEIA

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