 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Overseas Expert Column for Emirates Stakes Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Antler Luggage Handicap
PIN YOUR HOPES is trained on this very track and this looks an ideal opportunity for him. He hasn’t had much luck in last two starts in country Cups and this race is probably easier than those. He is also drawn nicely to get a soft run into the finish.
Consistent Brisbane galloper BLACK JET has drawn wide but he is usually patiently ridden anyway. I feel he will adapt well to this spacious circuit and ignore his latest run at Moonee Valley where he got back to last, but still ran on well late over 1,500m. This longer trip will assist his chances also.
EXCESS KNOWLEDGE has presumably been imported with next year’s Melbourne Cup in mind but he had G3 placed 3yo form in Great Britain over 2,400m and his Australian form to date has been solid as he scored last start over 1,600m in Sydney. He is lightly raced and this event lacks a touch quality even if he has to carry top weight.
LONDON STRIPE is in very good form. He has drawn well and I reckon he could nick a share of the prize.
SELECTIONS: 8.PIN YOUR HOPES, 14.BLACK JET, 1.EXCESS KNOWLEDGE & 10.LONDON STRIPE
S1-2 Hilton Hotels & Resorts Stakes (VRC Springtime Stakes)
I really hope HUSSON EAGLE goes well since I train him! He ran well when fifth in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes over 1,200m at huge odds of 100/1 last weekend and he has come out of the race without a problem. I’ve always felt he would cope fine with a jump to 1,400m. The gate in 10 isn’t ideal but I hope he can settle behind the speed and then unleash his big finish.
GRECO was a bit disappointing last start at Moonee Valley but I understand he didn’t cope well with the track at all; he wouldn’t be the first horse not to handle that circuit. He was very impressive the way he won his maiden in Sydney last month.
PRESSING is a promising, lightly raced colt with plenty of upside. He returned from a spell with an excellent run at Moonee Valley over 1,200m. I would expect him to be fitter and this distance looks spot on.
LORD ASPEN is unbeaten in three starts in South Australia. It’s not easy to assess how strong that form is, but he does look a quality horse. He likes to settle on the speed and has been very strong at the finish until now; he warrants the benefit of any doubt.
SELECTIONS: 3.HUSSON EAGLE, 15.GRECO, 1.PRESSING & 4.LORD ASPEN
S1-3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes
LE ROI was a sound 2nd last start to PRINCE OF PENZANCE at Moonee Valley and the run indicated that he is about to peak. In the parade yard he still looked as though the run would improve him so expect the spacious circuit to suit.
Another chance can be afforded ZANBAGH whom I train. You can forgive her last start failure in the Geelong Cup when she was lame post-race with sore feet. We have treated that ailment and she seems to fit and healthy now and her previous runs all suggested that this track and distance could bring out her best.
BIG MEMORY has a strong recent record. He won the G2 Herbert Power Stakes last month (with Melbourne Cup winner PROTECTIONIST behind) and was a solid 2nd in the Lexus Stakes over an almost identical distance here last weekend behind SIGNOFF, fourth in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday.
On Cox Plate Day we saw PRINCE OF PENZANCE impressively take out the G2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup over 2,500m. The concern is that he seems to need a fast pace to give his best and there could be a lack of speed here. Still, he is very fit and hails from a stable in top form.
SELECTIONS: 3.LE ROI, 6.ZANBAGH, 2.BIG MEMORY & 1.PRINCE OF PENZANCE
S1-4 Darley Classic (Victoria Racing Club Stakes)
CHAUTAUQUA is Australia’s latest ‘boom’ sprinter. His form has been outstanding in this preparation, winning both starts down this course and distance in devastating fashion. He has the ability to settle off the pace and explode over the final 400m. It is just a matter of time before he breaks through for a first G1 success.
The reputation of LANKAN RUPEE as the world’s best sprinter is seriously on the line here. I don’t think he has been at his absolute peak in this preparation through minor issues and contesting races at Moonee Valley. Nonetheless, he won the G1 Manikato Stakes and he has winning G1 form at this course and distance.
The ‘X Factor’ from an Australian point of view is the Irish raider SLADE POWER who is the best sprinter in Europe this year with G1 wins at Royal Ascot and the July Cup. His trackwork has been very good in Melbourne but the worry is that he can be fractious in the gates so a clean break has to be taken on trust.
Hampered and forced to give away too much ground early on, TERRAVISTA didn’t have much last start in behind LANKAN RUPEE last start in the G1 Manikato Stakes but I suspect this track will suit him better and he should not be dismissed.
SELECTIONS: 10.CHAUTAUQUA, 2.LANKAN RUPEE, 5.SLADE POWER & 9.TERRAVISTA
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (16 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 10.CHAUTAUQUA, 2.LANKAN RUPEE, 5.SLADE POWER & 9.TERRAVISTA
S1-5: Multiple – 11.BULL POINT, 10.LEEBAZ, 5.HOOKED & 6.CONTRIBUTER
S1-5 Emirates Stakes
Hong Kong viewers would have witnessed BULL POINT chase HOOKED home last start at Moonee Valley in the G2 Crystal Mile on Cox Plate Day when he was a bit unlucky. He was held up for a run at a crucial point at the 400m and was about six lengths off the winner turning for home. He flew the last furlong and perhaps he will do even better again here. This bigger track will certainly play to his strengths.
Put a line through the last start performance by LEEBAZ when he was blocked for a run the entire straight. This is a horse with nine quinella finishes from 11 starts for six wins and he seems best at this distance.
HOOKED won the G2 Crystal Mile from BULL POINT and that form makes him a strong chance in this G1 handicap. The selection also had the quality to finish a highly creditable third despite a very wide trip in the Epsom Handicap in Sydney five weeks ago. The form of that race has since been boosted substantially with the winner HE’S YOUR MAN going close in second in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes last week.
We also saw CONTRIBUTER create a big impression on his first Australian start when he was heavily backed to win the G3 David Jones Cup over 2,000m at Caulfield last month and while he drops back in distance he has enough class to get seriously involved and this more galloping track ought to favour him even more.
SELECTIONS: 11.BULL POINT, 10.LEEBAZ, 5.HOOKED & 6.CONTRIBUTER
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 11.BULL POINT, 10.LEEBAZ & 5.HOOKED
S1-6: Multiple – 9.SCRATCHY BOTTOM, 2.SUAVITO & 6.ZONZA
S1-7: Multiple – 7.ECLAIR BIG BANG, 4.FAST ‘N’ ROCKING & 13.TELEPATHIC
S1-6 Momentum Energy Stakes (Matriarch Stakes)
SCRATCHY BOTTOM had the quality to be touched off by a nose in the G1 South Australian Derby over 2,500m in May and a week earlier she should have won the South Australian Oaks over 2,000m. This preparation she has been tried over distances short of her best and back to what could be her optimum trip, she warrants serious consideration.
The Cox Plate simulcast showed in-form mare SUAVITO land a strong victory in a G3 over 1,600m. She took a little while to really wind up in that race, but she was strongest in the final 200m to suggest that she will be fine stepping up in distance to 2,000m and Damien Oliver sticks with her.
ZONZA could offer a good price given her recent form and wide gate. She is a quality New Zealand mare that has generally raced in top quality fields and though she has never really shown her true ability in Australia, this is not the usual high quality renewal so I’m giving her an each-way chance.
The likely pacesetter in the race will be SOLICIT and she could get things her own way up front. If she can control the pace she could take some getting past. All recent runs have been good, including an excellent fourth last week here in the G1 Myer Classic over 1,600m when she was beaten just over a length.
SELECTIONS: 9.SCRATCHY BOTTOM, 2.SUAVITO, 6.ZONZA & 1.SOLICIT
S1-7 Emirates Airline Handicap
ECLAIR BIG BANG is a quality Adelaide-based galloper who looks ideally placed here. Both recent runs have been excellent and he looks ready for 1,400m. His last start placing behind IN CAHOOTS at Caulfield – when he probably should have won but for being held up at the 100m and when beating a few rivals he meets again here – looks good enough for this race.
FAST ‘N’ ROCKING seems a rejuvenated galloper since being gelded and all his latest runs have been terrific. He was an easy winner last start at Moonee Valley and now seems ready for 1,400m. He was held by my top selection on his penultimate start, however.
The best form by NZ-based runner TELEPATHIC is over further in much better races but he ran well over 1,200m in Sydney last month and this extra 200m will aid his chances. He is too talented to ignore in these handicap conditions.
CORONATION SHALLAN was close to FAST ‘N’ ROCKING on his most recent start and he also ran third at this course and distance and should be an improver at what will probably be good odds.
SELECTIONS: 7.ECLAIR BIG BANG, 4.FAST ‘N’ ROCKING, 13.TELEPATHIC & 12.CORONATION SHALLAN
QUARTET SELECTIONS (24 unit bets):
Multiple – 7.ECLAIR BIG BANG, 4.FAST ‘N’ ROCKING, 13.TELEPATHIC & 12.CORONATION SHALLAN
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