 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Overseas Expert Column for Blue Diamond Stakes Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Angus Armanasco Stakes
BOTTLE OF SMOKE is taken to extend her unbeaten run to three. While her latest win at Mornington was in a much weaker grade than this, the winning time was excellent, as was the manner with which she won by a very easy two lengths.
SABATINI resumed after a spell with a good win at this track over 1,200m and was placed in a G1 here over 1,600m, so the step up to 1,400m is not a problem. She is also sure to be fitter and sets a high standard.
MARPLE MISS has won her last three starts decisively, especially a dominant success at Rosehill last start. She goes forward in her races and her trainer Kris Lees has an excellent record when he travelling horses to Melbourne, so she commands respect.
FONTEIN RUBY returned to the track with an excellent third behind SABATINI when she looked fantastic in the paddock beforehand. All indications show that she is in for a solid campaign, especially as the distances stretch out and she is likely to be on the pace.
SELECTIONS: 8.BOTTLE OF SMOKE, 2.SABATINI, 3.MARPLE MISS & 1.FONTEIN RUBY
S1-2 Caulfield Autumn Classic
ALPINE EAGLE looks an exciting prospect. He has been winning in Adelaide with ridiculous ease, most recently by five lengths despite being eased down and he looks well up to this grade. He has drawn well and his top rider Damien Oliver should have him in the finish.
Best keep on the right side of MINNESINGER a lightly raced, improving type. His most recent run was a most impressive win at Sandown by nearly two lengths despite being unsuited back in the field behind a slow pace.
MOONOVERMANHATTAN looks set to race forward, very often a big advantage at Caulfield. His form winning a G2 event over 2,040m at Moonee Valley for 3yos in October last year is arguably the best form in the race and his most recent run suggested he is back to form after a spell.
FIREHOUSE ROCK is racing in good form. The step up to 1,800m looks perfect and he has never been out of the first three in any of his three starts at this track.
SELECTIONS: 5.ALPINE EAGLE, 10.MINNESINGER, 1.MOONOVERMANHATTAN & 3.FIREHOUSE ROCK
S1-3 Futurity Stakes
DISSIDENT is clearly the one to beat. He was a comfortable winner of the G1 Orr Stakes at this track over this distance a fortnight ago and there is no reason to suggest that he can’t repeat the dose in a race that appears to have less depth. His stable is flying also.
DRIEFONTEIN rarely runs a bad race and she is likely to lead or at least race handy here and could prove a challenge to get past. Her most recent form in Sydney suggests she is as good as ever.
Consistent galloper ENTIRELY PLATINUM seems likely to go forward and get a cosy run. He was no match last start for DISSIDENT when he set a slow gallop but he could nick a place again.
Another quality mare to note is SUAVITO and she flies fresh. Last time she was first up and bolted in at this course and distance. She was a G2 winner at the end of the season. Further improvement is necessary to win here but she seems a valid place chance.
SELECTIONS: 1.DISSIDENT, 7.DRIEFONTEIN, 4.ENTIRELY PLATINUM & 8.SUAVITO
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (16 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 1.DISSIDENT, 7.DRIEFONTEIN, 4.ENTIRELY PLATINUM & 8.SUAVITO
S1-4: Multiple – 12.SPILLWAY, 3.MOURINHO, 2.HAPPY TRAILS & 1.PROTECTIONIST
S1-4 Peter Young Stakes
SPILLWAY is a quality galloper trained by David Hayes. He looked in need of a run last time on his return from a break in a G1 over an inadequate 1,400m but here he should be a good deal fitter and he could be hard to beat. It’s also worth noting that he went very well second up last season in a G1 event.
The often under-rated MOURINHO is racing in great form. Nice win first up at Moonee Valley over 1,200m, followed up by a solid 3rd last start in the G1 Orr Stakes here over 1,400m. This longer distance plays to his strengths, so one must consider him a player.
HAPPY TRAILS is a proven performer at this level and no doubt was in need of the run last time. He tends to follow the same pattern each preparation so will probably be finishing off strongly and he rates an each-way chance.
Now permanently based in Australia, the brilliant 2014 Melbourne Cup winner PROTECTIONIST makes his long awaited return. Recent barrier trials indicate that he is in good order, but Caulfield first up and this much shorter than ideal distance are unlikely to suit. Still, he is too good to dismiss outright.
SELECTIONS: 12.SPILLWAY, 3.MOURINHO, 2.HAPPY TRAILS & 1.PROTECTIONIST
S1-5 Oakleigh Plate
VAIN QUEEN profiles perfectly. There is sure to be a hot pace here to enable her to settle off the speed and storm home. Her most recent success last November in a G3 at Flemington was most striking when she skated in by over three lengths. She has winning form at this track and she still seems on the upgrade.
Drawn on the inside fence ICONIC appears ideally suited in a race with so much early speed likely to be ahead of her. He is well handicapped and if he gets the splits in the straight he can really extend over the final 400m. He could also represent good value.
Another with nice prospects is A TIME FOR JULIA. Her trainer Peter Moody is in terrific form and this mare looked pretty good herself in a recent barrier trial at Cranbourne. She has drawn well for her big race jockey Glen Boss and I expect her to be strong at the finish.
Sydney mare ATMOSPHERICAL returned last start at this course and distance in a strong G2 event and ran third to a real top class sprinter CHAUTAQUA. Very consistent, she is weighted to go well here and is sure to be fitter.
SELECTIONS: 6.VAIN QUEEN, 13.ICONIC, 9.A TIME FOR JULIA & 10.ATMOSPHERICAL
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 6.VAIN QUEEN, 13.ICONIC & 9.A TIME FOR JULIA
S1-6: Multiple – 8.FONTITON, 1.STOKER & 7.PRIDE OF DUBAI
S1-7: Multiple – 7.INDEX LINKED, 6.EXTRA ZERO & 1.BIG MEMORY
S1-6 Blue Diamond Stakes
The unbeaten FONTITON looks a worthy favourite. She has drawn the inside fence but she has the ability to position anywhere in the run and the way she quickened last start from midfield to win the G2 Blue Diamond Fillies’ Prelude to this race at this track over 1,100m was mighty impressive. She is the one to beat.
STOKER didn’t contest the Prelude for this race but his form is still very solid. He followed up an excellent second on debut to an impressive win last time over 1,000m at Sandown and it looks like the extra distance here will play to his strengths. Damien Oliver sticks with him and he’s a definite contender.
PRIDE OF DUBAI burst right into calculations when he flew from a long way back last start here at Caulfield in the G2 Blue Diamond Colts’ Prelude over 1,100m. Although that division ran a significantly slower time, he looks open to the most improvement and he has drawn nicely.
MISS GIDGET raced forward last start and only tired late when second to FONTITON. She is sure to be prominent in the run again and that recent experience could see her figure in the prize-money.
SELECTIONS: 8.FONTITON, 1.STOKER, 7.PRIDE OF DUBAI & 11.MISS GIDGET
S1-7 Mornington Cup Prelude
INDEX LINKED showed a return to his best form last start at Caulfield when he ran on strongly to finish second. He is likely to drift back along the rails, but given luck in running he should finish off well.
EXTRA ZERO is an ultra consistent galloper but is very often the bridesmaid. Still, you could say he is in career best form and he’s likely to get a nice run midfield so he’s a decent each-way chance yet again.
The class runner of the field is BIG MEMORY but his welter burden of 132lbs is the worry. His form during the Spring Carnival was far superior to his opposition here, but he might just need the run. He is too good to omit.
Perth visitor CHESTER ROAD caught the eye last start when very unlucky at this track over 1,600m. Craig Williams perseveres with him so expect a bold run over a more suitable distance.
SELECTIONS: 7.INDEX LINKED, 6.EXTRA ZERO, 1.BIG MEMORY & 5.CHESTER ROAD
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