 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Overseas Expert Column for The Championships – Queen Elizabeth Stakes Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Percy Sykes Stakes
LAKE GENEVA ran home well for third in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes in February to PRIDE OF DUBAI who boosted that form with another G1 win here the other day. My selection posted an identical finish in the G1 Golden Slipper a few weeks later and with plenty of scope for improvement, she looks the one to beat in a weaker contest.
I felt the run by SERENADE in the G1 Golden Slipper was of a standard sufficient to see her in the finish. She was tight for room at the top of the straight on that occasion and took a while to get going so this smaller field should aid her prospects. Craig Williams sticks with her also.
CALAVERITE could be the surprise packet. She ran pretty well behind rival OTTOMAN here two starts back and then followed up with a most impressive win at Moonee Valley. She is likely to race forward so ascertaining any track bias could prove crucial but she has James McDonald to assist.
MINE TWO ran on strongly from the tail of the field last time out at Rosehill and while coming back in distance might not be ideal, she should be hitting the line hard again.
SELECTIONS: 2. LAKE GENEVA, 4. SERENADE, 1. CALAVERITE & 5. MINE TWO
S1-2 Royal Sovereign Stakes 3yo Sprint
KURO is extremely consistent and both runs for this preparation have been very good, especially his latest when a second in the G1 The Galaxy at Rosehill over 1,100m. Back to his own age group he should be hard to beat and, having viewed how the track played last Monday, it could prove advantageous to be drawn out wide.
DELECTATION has drawn wide and recent form suggests he should be given serious consideration. He has solid form against KURO and is another to have shaped well recently in a trial.
RUBICK comes through the G1 The Galaxy like KURO and is a contender on his best form. The caveat is his gate in 3 but he must be considered a chance if being on the inside is not too much of a disadvantage.
EARTHQUAKE ran second in the G1 Golden Slipper last year on a heavy track. Her last two starts in Melbourne have been pretty good but coming back to Sydney makes her appealing; anywhere near her best would see her competitive.
SELECTIONS: 4. KURO, 3. DELECTATION, 2. RUBICK & 11. EARTHQUAKE
S1-3 Australian Oaks
The highly talented WINX revels in soft conditions – she has won a heavy track here before - and she was somewhat unlucky last start behind rival runner FENWAY when she settled at the rear and had difficulty getting a clear run in the home straight when fifth. It was still an excellent Oaks trial and she rates a major hope on that evidence.
FENWAY burst into calculations last start when she won the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes over 2,000m at Rosehill and her connections believe she will prove stronger at this longer distance. She is still quite lightly raced and bypassed the Oaks at Flemington last November in order to give her time to mature. That decision could reap dividends here.
THUNDER LADY is a real staying type of filly and has an undeniable chance on her best form. She ran second in the G1 Crown Oaks late last year and has clearly been prepared for this race. She also ran on strongly last start at Rosehill behind FENWAY and is right in the mix.
BALLET SUITE surprised many last start in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes when she finished off her race arguably as good as her stable companion WINX. She is bred for this sort of distance and she seems to have further improvement forthcoming.
SELECTIONS: 2. WINX, 3. FENWAY, 1. THUNDER LADY & 10. BALLET SUITE
S1-4 Queen of the Turf Stakes
British import NOBLE PROTECTOR is a big, rangy mare racing in peak form, having decisively won her last two starts at this distance at G3 and G2 level. She likes to go forward and has the rare ability to quicken at the right time so I expect she will be very hard to surpass.
FIRST SEAL has just missed out major G1 prizes in her last two starts but she could not be any more consistent having been in the quinella in nine of her ten career starts with four wins. This fine 3yo filly looks sure to be competitive again.
CATKINS is a terrific mare who has been racing at the highest level for a long time but she has yet to crack a G1 victory despite a record of 15 wins and 11 minor placings from 31 starts. However, she seems to race best in the Autumn and her latest win was most impressive in a G2 at Rosehill. This is tougher, but she is too good and honest not to include.
AMICUS won the G1 Thousand Guineas at this distance in Melbourne back in October and perhaps the 2,000m of the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes last start was a shade too far for her even though she still ran nicely in sixth. I like her chances of being in the money back to her best trip.
SELECTIONS: 6. NOBLE PROTECTOR, 14. FIRST SEAL, 2. CATKINS & 15. AMICUS
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (16 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 6. NOBLE PROTECTOR, 14. FIRST SEAL, 2. CATKINS & 15. AMICUS
S1-5: Multiple – 6. HARTNELL, 4. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN, 1. PROTECTIONIST & 7. AKZAR
S1-5 Sydney Cup
Godolphin’s former English-trained HARTNELL is doing extremely well in his three Australian starts and last time out he impressively won the G1 The BMW over 2,400m at Rosehill. This rapidly improving 4yo gives the impression that the extra distance of this race will not pose a problem and his light weight clearly identifies him as the one to beat.
Third home in the G1 Melbourne Cup last year was WHO SHOT THEBARMAN and he caught the eye finishing ahead of PROTECTIONIST most recently in the G1 The BMW. He is still weighted to be competitive.
Melbourne Cup hero PROTECTIONIST finally gets the distance he needs on his fourth run back since his famous win at Flemington in November. This race has been his principal aim this preparation and is an obvious form selection even if he has plenty of ground to make up on HARTNELL who beat him fairly and squarely last time out.
AKZAR is a lively outsider at what could be good odds. He ran on well from a wide passage in the Mornington Cup last time over 2,400m and gave the impression that 3,200m would suit and his lighter weight also appeals.
SELECTIONS: 6. HARTNELL, 4. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN, 1. PROTECTIONIST & 7. AKZAR
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 6. HARTNELL, 4. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN & 1. PROTECTIONIST
S1-6: Multiple – 2. CRITERION, 1. CONTRIBUTOR & 10. TO THE WORLD
S1-7: Multiple – 6. SHAMALIA, 9. CHLOE IN PARIS & 4. GRIANTE
S1-6 Queen Elizabeth Stakes
Last year’s Derby winner CRITERION ran very well in the G1 Longines Hong Kong Cup in December when third and his two runs since when placing over much shorter trips have been excellent. This step-up to 2,000m appears ideal. His recent trial at Randwick was strong and he looks a big chance.
CONTRIBUTOR is arguably the Australia’s best middle-distance galloper right now judged on the way he has dominated Sydney racing in 2015. Of particular note was his latest performance in the G1 Ranvet Stakes over 2,000m when he treated a classy field with contempt and a repeat of that effort would set the bar very high for his rivals.
TO THE WORLD was good enough to run second to the great GENTILDONNA in the G1 Arima Kinen late last December and finish ahead of several of Japan’s finest horses. He backed up that run when second again on his Australian debut to HARTNELL in a G1 at Rosehill and reports suggest he will have benefitted greatly for that run.
ROYAL DESCENT ran yet another cracker when third on Monday in the G1 Doncaster Mile and she simply does not know how to run a bad race. Her sheer consistency puts her in the reckoning for another minor share of the spoils.
SELECTIONS: 2. CRITERION, 1. CONTRIBUTOR, 10. TO THE WORLD & 12. ROYAL DESCENT
S1-7 Sapphire Stakes
SHAMALIA has always shown good potential and she really looked the part first up after a break when she won by two lengths at Rosehill for top jockey Hugh Bowman who stays with her. Further improvement is likely and this is her home track for the Bart & James Cummings’ stable.
CHLOE IN PARIS is racing in great form with three wins in Melbourne since February. Last time out, the G1 The Galaxy at Rosehill was her biggest test, yet she raced on the speed and did well to run fifth behind the top class SWEET IDEA. That is a very strong form as she drops in class.
GRIANTE is another travelling up north from Victoria and her recent form is too good to ignore, especially her latest effort in the G1 William Reid Stakes when she was caught off the track at Moonee Valley but still ran third.
ATMOSPHERICAL ran very well two starts back in the G1 Oakleigh Plate in Melbourne but was below that level of form in the G1 The Galaxy last time. Back against the females and in an easier race she has to come into calculations.
SELECTIONS: 6. SHAMALIA, 9. CHLOE IN PARIS, 4. GRIANTE & 8. ATMOSPHERICAL
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