 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Melbourne Cup Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Schweppes #FlemingtonFling
Lightly-raced galloper SPILL THE BEANS has super form for a race of this nature. Last start in Sydney raced wide early before dashing clear at the 400m mark only to be run down late by classy sprinter COUNTERATTACK.
Speedy Adelaide visitor AMERICAN STAR has sound credentials. This is a step up in class but should give good sight after a dominant last start victory.
PROMPT RETURN won at this carnival last year, but has since proved somewhat disappointing. Trainer Danny O’Brien has a knack of winning races at his home track. Horse will be up on the pace and in with a great chance.
ABILITY races as though 1,400m will be better, but astute trainer Robert Smerdon must be respected bringing this horse back in trip. Drops in class and is a chance.
Lightly-raced FAATINAH has been freshened for this and has scope for improvement. I suspect he may go better here than last start where he looked uneasy in the parade ring.
SELECTIONS: 3. SPILL THE BEANS, 4. AMERICAN STAR, 1. PROMPT RETURN, 7. ABILITY & 6. FAATINAH
S1-2 Lexus Hybrid Plate
Classy filly DON’T DOUBT MAMMA was disappointing last start at Flemington when unplaced in a race she looked well suited. It may pay to overlook that run and go on her previous excellent form at 1,200m and 1,400m.
COMPRENDE is an Adelaide trained filly with form that stacks up well for this. Tends to settle midfield and finish strongly. Wide barrier means she will need a little luck.
Sydney filly DENPURR has been consistent of late and caught the eye with a strong second over 1,400m at Randwick. From the respected stable of Peter and Paul Snowden and in with a chance.
Lightly-raced VALLEY SWEETHEART is showing some good potential. Last start at Moonee Valley she finished the race off very strongly over 1,200m and maybe looking for more ground, so this should suit.
TIZ MY VIEW was fifth in the same race as VALLEY SWEETHEART and was another looking for more ground. But wide barrier is a concern.
SELECTIONS: 5. DON’T DOUBT MAMMA, 7. COMPRENDE, 6. DENPURR, 10. VALLEY SWEETHEART & 8. TIZ MY VIEW
In possibly the most open and intriguing Melbourne Cup ever, Japanese stayer FAME GAME will be hard to beat. Has outstanding form in Japan over 3,200m and caught the eye last start in the G1 Caulfield Cup, when he stormed home from the rear.
ALMOONQITH is another import trained in Australia by David Hayes and Tom Dabernig. Won the G3 Geelong Cup like only stars do, settling midfield and pulling his way to the lead on the home turn before winning easily. The most impressive winner of the G3 Geelong Cup I have seen in recent years – and that includes three recent Melbourne Cup winners.
European stayer TRIP TO PARIS burst into calculations with an excellent run behind MONGOLIAN KHAN in the G1 Caulfield Cup. He did have a soft run that day but he was closing late.
A low barrier draw was crucial for CRITERION and he got it with barrier 4. Another David Hayes and Tom Dabernig-trained globetrotter was an excellent second in the G1 Cox Plate, closing off strongly behind WINX. Distance query at two miles but oozes class.
Record-breaking jockey Joao Moreira has been booked to ride lightweight chance THE UNITED STATES, who was set a big task in the G2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup and produced an impressive win to force way into field.
SELECTIONS: 3. FAME GAME, 17. ALMOONQITH, 10. TRIP TO PARIS, 2. CRITERION & 22. THE UNITED STATES
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 3. FAME GAME
Selections – 17. ALMOONQITH, 10. TRIP TO PARIS, 2. CRITERION & 22. THE UNITED STATES
S1-4: Banker – 4. DESERT JEUNEY
Selections – 9. MALICE, 7. SADLER’S LAKE, 13. HE OR SHE & 6. JACQUINOT BAY
S1-4 Melbourne Cup Day Plate
DESERT JEUNEY finally returned to the winners list last start at Pakenham. Most of this high quality horse's starts have been in top class events, so this grade, track and distance is ideal.
From the top Sydney stable of John O'Shea, MALICE should be ready to peak following an excellent fourth running against the bias last Saturday at Moonee Valley. This track and distance suits better, so must include.
SADLER’S LAKE is a consistent stayer from the stable of Champion Sydney trainer Chris Waller. Another one better suited by the step up to this distance and a more spacious track. Drops is class and would be helped by softer track.
HE OR SHE drew a bad barrier but the former Perth horse won most impressively last start at Caulfield, when he settled at the rear and unleashed a powerful finish out wide. Likely to have trained on, so must consider.
JACQUINOT BAY seems to improve with racing and with his fitness he will be hard to catch from a prominent position in the run.
SELECTIONS: 4. DESERT JEUNEY, 9. MALICE, 7. SADLER’S LAKE, 13. HE OR SHE & 6. JACQUINOT BAY
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 4. DESERT JEUNEY, 9. MALICE & 7. SADLER’S LAKE
S1-5: Multiple – 2. KURO, 7. KAEPERNICK & 3. GREGERS
S1-6: Multiple – 3. NAYELI, 4. WAWAIL & 16. THINKING OF YOU
S1-5 MSS Security Sprint
This is probably the easiest race KURO has ever contested after he was unlucky last start. Barrier 12 is perfect and jockey Hugh Bowman is a bonus.
GREGERS has been racing well without winning this preparation and had excuses last start. Will be up on the speed and hard to get past with former Hong Kong-based jockey Craig Williams aboard.
John O'Shea's SARAJEVO is suited here. Expect improvement on his last start at Caulfield and a return to his best form. Barrier 14 is ideal, as is James McDonald and minimum weight.
The best form of consistent Sydney galloper COUNTRYMAN is over further but must be respected with champion jockey Damien Oliver taking the ride.
SELECTIONS: 2. KURO, 3. GREGERS, 17. SARAJEVO & 6. COUNTRYMAN
S1-6 The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes
The Snowden stable should be treated with the utmost respect and NAYELI comes off a win where she unleashed a devastating final 100m burst at Randwick last time out. She will need some luck from barrier 13.
Super consistent mare WAWAIL comes from the all conquering David Hayes and Tom Dabernig stable with excellent recent form. Looks set for this and barrier 5 is ideal.
Peter G Moody-trained THINKING OF YOU gets the services of Glen Boss, who will ride quietly from a wide gate and look to finish strong late.
Barrier 16 is a blow for PEACE FORCE, who generally goes forward. Returned in great order first-up with a second to NAYELI at Randwick and will be fitter.
SELECTIONS: 3. NAYELI, 4. WAWAIL, 16. THINKING OF YOU & 2. PEACE FORCE
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