 Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Takarazuka Kinen (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 Takarazuka Kinen
Takarazuka Kinen is a tricky race for punters, with the result in 2015 a typical example. It was won by LOVELY DAY from DENIM AND RUBY, who were both, not considered on the odds board. When you look back at the results of the last ten years of the Takarazuka Kinen, only three winners were started favourite. They were DEEP IMPACT in 2006, ORFEVRE in 2012, and GOLD SHIP in 2014. While those great champions could show their real ability, seven other leaders on the odds board, failed to show their true form.
One of the reasons why Takarazuka Kinen is a difficult race for punters, is that it takes place at the end of June, and many of runners have had tough races prior to this race. G1 events such as the Tenno Sho Spring at Kyoto in May, the Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Sha Tin in April, and the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan in March, are a hard preparation for the build-up to the Takarazuka Kinen, and many of the leading contenders have difficulty maintaining their peak condition. Therefore, when you predict the potential winner of Takarazuka Kinen, you have to watch carefully where and how they ran during the first half of current season.
After wavering between DURAMENTE and AMBITIOUS, I select DURAMENTE as my first choice. I believe the dual classic winner in 2015 is the best horse in the field, and I was so impressed by his performance in Dubai, where he finished second to POSTPONED, the current Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe favourite, despite losing one of his shoes in the parade. While the trip to Dubai might have cost him in condition, I still believe he has class to be a great champion, and will not disappoint his supporters.
It is obvious that AMBITIOUS has been trained for Takarazuka Kinen since the start of current season, finishing second to DURAMENTE in the G2 Nakayama Kinen in February, and subsequently winning the G2 Osaka Hai impressively in April. He is a rising star in the middle distance division in Japan, and I would not be surprised if AMBITIOUS beat DURAMENTE on Sunday.
Another horse who has been lightly raced this season is STAPHANOS. He ran well last year, finishing second to BLAZING SPEED in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup in April, and filling a similar position behind LOVELY DAY in the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn. After disappointing in the G1 Hong Kong Cup in December, Hideaki Fujiwara, the trainer of STAPHANOS, gave him a six months’ break to refresh, before returning to finish a good second in the G3 Naruo Kinen on 4th June at Hanshin. That was his first race of the current season, and he will strip fresh and well.
While I believe LOVELY DAY, winner of two G1 Stakes, including the last edition of the Takarazuka Kinen, should have the ability to complete back-to-back wins. I believe the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup on soft ground in April, was a tough race, and I question whether he has fully recovered.
The same comment applies to KITASAN BLACK, who was at his peak on the day of the G1 Tenno Sho Spring, but who might be over the top now.
SELECTIONS: 9. DURAMENTE, 2. AMBITIOUS, 8. STAPHANOS, 7. LOVELY DAY & 3. KITASAN BLACK
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