 Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Blue Diamond Stakes (S2) (Patrick Payne)
S2-1 Angus Armanasco Stakes
SUMMER SHAM is an impressive filly that has the ability to lead or sit handy from barrier 1 and that is usually the place to be at Caulfield. Given how even this race is, she should be leading into the straight and be very hard to catch.
Promising type EARTH ANGEL has to be considered. She is likely to be back in the field and conceding a start, but I was impressed by the way she ran home last time behind PARIS ROCK – a good form line for this type of race.
MISS WAHOO defeated FREEHEARTED last start and that mare then won impressively at her next start. Should get an ideal run from barrier 5.
COUNTERPLAY also maps well from barrier 4 and should settle third or fourth in the run. Last spring she ran great races behind some very good fillies. This race doesn't look as strong as that type of competition.
Many of the horses have had their chances hurt by awkward draws, including SEE ME EXCEED, who will need plenty of luck to win after drawing barrier 10.
PALAZZO VECCHIO is a lightly raced and beautifully bred filly that creates plenty of interest. Her form looks modest but the stunning manner in which she won last start means she cannot be ignored, particularly from a low draw.
SELECTIONS: 6. SUMMER SHAM, 7. EARTH ANGEL, 4. MISS WAHOO, 1. COUNTERPLAY & 8. SEE ME EXCEED
S2-2 Mannerism Stakes
SILENT SEDITION is the one to beat. The set weights and penalties conditions of this race favour her. Although she was a little disappointing last start, I expect her to bounce back here with the help of an ideal draw and blinkers on for the first time.
FLIPPANT beat home both SILENT SEDITION and PETITION last start and has placed in two of three starts this preparation. Sits handy and least affected if the race tempo is moderate.
SAMOVARE is first-up from a break but is an interesting runner because she might press forward control the race. She is good enough to win if things go her way. She must be included in all bet types.
JESTER HALO is under-rated and has been racing in super consistent form, winning three from seven over the distance. Her most recent run was at G1 level and she was far from disgraced. She has had a long preparation but races forward and can also make her own luck.
WHEAL LEISURE could run a big race as she resumes from a break. Has won twice first up and the distance suits.
SELECTIONS: 1. SILENT SEDITION, 6. FLIPPANT, 7. SAMOVARE, 9. JESTER HALO & 4. WHEAL LEISURE
S2-3 Futurity Stakes
This is a great G1 contest and the major players are MIGHTY BOSS, BRAVE SMASH, TOSEN STARDOM and LORD OF THE SKY, but HUMIDOR also adds extra intrigue.
MIGHTY BOSS looked desperately unlucky last start. He may be ridden a little closer this time from a better barrier and that could make the difference.
BRAVE SMASH was another horse that was unlucky last start and is a definite danger. Placed three times in as many starts at Caulfield and looks well placed here.
TOSEN STARDOM is the class runner of the race but perhaps not as well suited as his stablemate BRAVE SMASH at 1,400m. Looked terrific in the parade yard last start. Forget TOSEN STARDOM ever ran that day as nothing went right from the start to finish, yet still was only beaten a couple of lengths.
Course specialist LORD OF THE SKY is a six-time winner at this track and racing in career best form. Narrowly beaten at big odds last start and should run a huge race in front for champion jockey Damien Olivier.
MR SNEAKY has drawn awkwardly in barrier 8 and needs some luck to get into the placings but does run well at Caulfield.
Look for HUMIDOR to run a big race as he resumes from a break, he will settle at the rear and storm home late.
SELECTIONS: 10. MIGHTY BOSS, 3. BRAVE SMASH, 1. TOSEN STARDOM, 4. LORD OF THE SKY & 6. MR SNEAKY
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-3:
Banker – 10. MIGHTY BOSS
Selections – 3. BRAVE SMASH, 1. TOSEN STARDOM, 4. LORD OF THE SKY & 6. MR SNEAKY
S2-4:
Banker – 1. LONG LEAF
Selections – 13. ENNIS HILL, 2. WRITTEN BY, 11. KINKY BOOM & 16. OOHOOD
S2-4 Blue Diamond Stakes
LONG LEAF is the one that I have been most impressed with in what is a very even race at the top of betting. A beautiful looking horse, LONG LEAF has the attitude to match – he looks great but just gets the job done. Ideally drawn in barrier 7 and has the services of Kerrin McEvoy. No distance concerns and will be strong at the end of 1,200m.
LONG LEAF's stablemate ENNIS HILL looms as a danger, especially after drawing barrier 4 in a race where barriers and luck in running are crucial. From that gate she is sure to press forward and get every opportunity. I was impressed with her latest win here on 3rd February.
Even though WRITTEN BY has drawn barrier 18, he is unbeaten in two starts and still a serious chance. While the draw is not ideal, he does seem to race best when outside horses. Both his career wins have been impressive and has the ability to finish off strongly.
KINKY BOOM created a big impression at her only start when she came from last to win here on 3rd February. Prior to that win she showed natural speed to easily win a trial so barrier 14 might not be a problem.
OOHOOD is an exciting filly and is sure to be competitive. Her racing pattern suits this type of race, as most recent winners have tended to settle midfield and produce a powerful finish. She gives the impression that she will make a lovely 3YO filly, but she still might be good enough to be competitive in this race.
SELECTIONS: 1. LONG LEAF, 13. ENNIS HILL, 2. WRITTEN BY, 11. KINKY BOOM & 16. OOHOOD
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-4: Multiple – 1. LONG LEAF, 13. ENNIS HILL & 2. WRITTEN BY
S2-5: Multiple – 2. RUSSIAN REVOLUTION, 15. GLENALL & 8. SNITTY KITTY
S2-6: Multiple – 2. GAILO CHOP, 1. HARTNELL & 9. SINGLE GAZE
S2-5 Oakleigh Plate
I expect a fast early speed that will help backmarkers and RUSSIAN REVOLUTION looks well placed from barrier 11. From that barrier star jockey Mark Zahra should get a perfect position. His form around REDZEL reads well for this.
GLENALL is from the powerful Hawkes stable and could spring a surprise. This stable love setting horses for big races like this and this lightly raced horse has shown above average ability. Should settle midfield from barrier 5 and has a big finish.
SNITTY KITTY profiles nicely for this race but the only negative is barrier 18. That draw is a major worry because she races near the speed and will have to exert extra energy to find a winning position. If she has some luck slotting into a handy position, she has the ability to win the race.
CATCHY is a classy filly and should settle just beyond midfield and be running home to challenge for the win late. Star jockey Craig Williams has been booked to ride with the light weight.
BOOKER might have the natural speed to overcome her wide draw, especially with a light weight.
SELECTIONS: 2. RUSSIAN REVOLUTION, 15. GLENALL, 8. SNITTY KITTY, 17. CATCHY & 18. BOOKER
S2-6 Peter Young Stakes
It is hard to split GAILO CHOP and HARTNELL – both were impressive first up winners and appear better suited here up in distance. Both should press forward with GAILO CHOP likely to either lead or sit second, so that might put him ahead of his rival.
HARTNELL seems to be getting better with age, has run well at this track before and is drawn to get a lovely run. He will be very hard to beat in this race and throughout this preparation.
SINGLE GAZE looked the best I have seen her in the parade ring on 10th February. Her first-up run was fantastic and I expect her to continue to improve in this race.
HARLEM steps up in trip but recent form good enough to be in the placings here.
SELECTIONS: 2. GAILO CHOP, 1. HARTNELL, 9. SINGLE GAZE & 6. HARLEM
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