 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Derby Stakes Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Princess Elizabeth Stakes
The G3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes run over 1,703m looks an open affair with a good handful of the runners appearing to hold solid claims.
The David O’Meara-trained LINCOLN ROCKS looks likely to go off favourite after a promising second in a G3 contest over 1,400m at Lingfield last time out. Prior to that she ran creditably on her seasonal reappearance in Listed company over 1,600m, where she was behind both NYALETI and SHENANIGANS. The form of that run was franked when NYALETI won the G2 German 1000 Guineas and with Daniel Tudhope back on board, as well as a step up in trip, LINCOLN ROCKS could go close to winning her biggest race to date.
Richard Hannon’s ANNA NERIUM comes into this on the back of a solid seventh in the G1 1000 Guineas at Newmarket over 1,600m. The daughter of DUBAWI was quietly fancied for the race having been impressive when taking a Listed race at the same track over 1,400m the time before. Her breeding suggests she’ll improve the further she goes and her connections clearly hold her in high regard as they are prepared to take on a number of more experienced horses here. Being a 3YO means she gets a handy weight allowance too and she looks to be the biggest danger to LINCOLN ROCKS.
Frankie Dettori has won this race a record five times and he’ll be looking to make it six with the Martyn Meade-trained WILAMINA. The 5YO daughter of ZOFFANY will look to build on a good performance behind WUHEIDA at Newmarket in the G2 Dahlia Stakes over 1,800m. Her form suggests she’s one to follow earlier in the season and while she was comfortably beaten by WUHEIDA last time, she finished a long way ahead of the third placed horse. She is guaranteed to see out the 1,703m trip having won over further last season and could muscle in on the places.
Ryan Moore is yet to taste victory in the race and he rides the ultra-consistent SHENANIGANS. Roger Varian’s 4YO has run 11 times in her career and has only finished out of the top three twice. The majority of her performances before this season had been in handicap company, but she’s run twice in Listed contests over 1,600m this season and has finished second on both occasions. The form of her most recent second has been franked by NYALETI and the daughter of ARCANO is another who could go well if seeing out the extra 100m.
Silvestre De Sousa has been on the winner in two of the last three runnings of the race and he gets the leg up on STAGE NAME this time. This will be just the third start of the 4YO’s career and she takes a big step up from her last run, a novice race over 1,729m on the tapeta at Wolverhampton. It’s hard to see her being involved based on the form she has showed in her short career so far.
Richard Fahey’s DANCE DIVA steps up to 1,703m here having chased winner home over 1,575m at York last time. Fahey’s filly is undoubtedly talented having three times in her 2YO career including in Listed company over 1,200m at Newmarket. There is plenty of speed in her breeding and it’s questionable whether this trip will see her at her best.
SELECTIONS: 7. ANNA NERIUM, 2. LINCOLN ROCKS, 6. WILAMINA, 3. SHENANIGANS & 8. DANCE DIVA
S2-2 Diomed Stakes
Since its inception in 1971, the G3 Diomed Stakes, run over 1,703m, has had three multiple winners. ALL FRIENDS, NAYYIR and BLYTHE KNIGHT have all won this G3 contest twice and both AROD and SOVEREIGN DEBT will seek to win the race for a second time this year.
David Simcock’s AROD looks set to go off favourite on the back of a Listed win at Windsor earlier this month over 1,628m. The 7YO is back in the Great Britain after an unsuccessful spell in Australia and while he’s not quite managed to reproduce the form from earlier in his career, he’s shown signs that he could be coming back to somewhere near his best. His recent win at Windsor was pleasing, though this is undoubtedly a step up in class, and before that he ran well to finish second on his first run of the campaign at Kempton. Overall, his performances this season have been encouraging and he could go close to reclaiming the prize he won back in 2015.
Simcock also saddles another old-stager in BRETON ROCK who is making his seasonal reappearance here. While he has some of the best form on offer in the line-up, including three wins at G2 level, they’ve all be over 1,400m and there has to be question marks over his stamina at 1,703m.
Ruth Carr’s SOVEREIGN DEBT has been a credit to his connections and his win 12 months ago was one of a number of fantastic performances the 9YO has produced in his career. That was part of three consecutive wins last season which also included a G2 at Sandown, however Carr’s runner failed to build on that for the rest of the season. His two performances this year have been disappointing and it might just be that time has eventually caught up with him.
While AROD and SOVEREIGN DEBT are firmly in the twilight zone of their respective careers, Simon Crisford’s CENTURY DREAM is very much at the peak of his. The son of CAPE CROSS enjoyed a strong 2017 campaign where he won four times including a competitive handicap at Newbury over 2,000m. He proved he was capable in better company too when taking the Listed Paradise Stakes over 1,600m at Ascot last time. While this is another step up in class, he looks more than worth a go at this level and shouldn’t have any problems if the forecast rain arrives with the majority of his form coming on soft ground.
LOVE DREAMS steps up from handicap company for the first time and Mark Johnston’s runner is another who comes into this on the back of plenty of runs this year. This will be his seventh run since March, though interestingly just the second time he’s gone further than 1,400m in his career. The yard’s runners tend to stay well and it would be surprising if his trainer had pitched him in here without believing the extra distance would suit.
TRUE VALOUR is also taking a chance at the trip, stepping up to 1,703m for the first time having finished third in the G3 Amethyst Stakes at Leopardstown over 1,600m last time out. A repeat of that would see him go close, but connections must be fearful of the forecast rain with the majority of the horse’s form coming on good ground.
Trainer Richard Fahey is yet to win the race and he saddles GABRIAL for this one. Older horses have a good record in the race with four 8YOs winning it in the last ten years and Fahey will be hoping his old stager can continue the trend. He was beaten a neck in the race twelve months ago and while the majority of his best form is from a few seasons back, he could easily outrun his odds. He has plenty of form on a softer surface too, so his connections won’t be worried if the ground is on the testing side.
SELECTIONS: 3. CENTURY DREAM, 5. GABRIAL, 1. AROD, 6. LOVE DREAMS & 7. SOVEREIGN DEBT
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2: Banker – 3. CENTURY DREAM
Selections – 5. GABRIAL, 1. AROD, 6. LOVE DREAMS & 7. SOVEREIGN DEBT
S2-3: Banker – 11. DARK SHOT
Selections – 1. DUKE OF FIRENZE, 8. BOOM THE GROOM, 16. TANASOQ & 4. EDWARD LEWIS
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-2: Multiple – 3. CENTURY DREAM, 5. GABRIAL & 1. AROD
S2-3: Multiple – 11. DARK SHOT, 1. DUKE OF FIRENZE & 8. BOOM THE GROOM
S2-4: Multiple – 8. SAXON WARRIOR, 11. YOUNG RASCAL & 1. DEE EX BEE
S2-3 'Dash' Handicap Stakes
Epsom’s 1,000m ‘Dash’ Handicap Stakes is an extraordinary race. It is run on the fastest 1,000m course anywhere in the world with a major camber running from right to left, meaning that horses can become unbalanced as they sprint towards the winning line. With 20 horses lining up, a significant draw bias and a crowd of over 100,000 people in the race that precedes the Derby, it is an amazing spectacle where hard luck stories are almost guaranteed. Unfortunately the rain that has hit Epsom this week means we’re not going to see any track records broken, but incredibly the last five winners of the race are all set to take part.
CASPIAN PRINCE has landed three of the last four editions, an unbelievable achievement in such a wide-open, competitive handicap. All of those wins have been for different trainers and he turns up this year in the care of another new handler, Michael Appleby. His win 12 months ago, at huge odds of 25/1, was particularly surprising for punters as he came out of barrier 1, undoubtedly the worst position on the track. There is a big advantage for horses drawn high over this course and distance, but that is only the case if they have lightning fast gate speed. CASPIAN PRINCE returns off a very similar handicap mark and even though he is now 9YO, you cannot ignore a horse that runs so well at this unique course. The problem for him is that he prefers quick ground, while he’s been unlucky with the draw again in barrier 2.
The most eye-catching of all those in behind him last year was DARK SHOT who was last 400m out but came with such a blistering run that he nearly got his head in front right on the line. Formerly trained by Andrew Balding, he is now with Scott Dixon and this is certain to have been the plan. He was an excellent second to the speedy EL ASTRONAUTE over 1,000m at York on his seasonal reappearance and first start for Dixon. The promising claimer Jamie Gormley was in the saddle for that run and he keeps the ride, which means DARK SHOT will carry less weight than 12 months ago. He also handles any ground, while his draw in barrier 19 couldn’t be better.
Paul Midgley won this prize in 2015 with DESERT LAW who is back to try to land his second Dash at the grand old age of 10. He is another who can’t be left out of calculations, but he’s in barrier 3 and one of Midgley’s other runners, TANASOQ, could be more interesting from barrier 16. This 5YO son of ACCLAMATION has won his last two having only moved to his current yard back in March, so he comes into this in red-hot form. The ground probably isn’t ideal and he’s stepping up in class, but it may just be that his new trainer has found the key to him.
Silvestre De Sousa gets the leg-up on BOOM THE GROOM who is another to have run well in this race in the past and has been in good form on the all-weather this winter. He must have every chance, as will 2013 victor DUKE OF FIRENZE, who was third last year and is always to be feared here despite the burden of top weight.
EDWARD LEWIS ran well to be fifth 12 months ago when suffering an interrupted passage, so he is yet another with solid claims in this ‘blink and you’ll miss it’ sprint.
SELECTIONS: 11. DARK SHOT, 1. DUKE OF FIRENZE, 8. BOOM THE GROOM, 16. TANASOQ & 4. EDWARD LEWIS
S2-4 Derby Stakes
Irish raiders have monopolized the 2,405m G1 Derby Stakes in recent years, with five of the previous six winners of the Epsom Classic hailing from the Emerald Isle. CAMELOT kicked off their dominance in the race in 2012 for trainer Aidan O’Brien, who has since won the Derby with RULER OF THE WORLD (2013), AUSTRALIA (2014) and WINGS OF EAGLES (2017).
Fellow Irish trainer Dermot Weld got in on the act when HARZAND landed the prize in 2016 and this year it’s impossible to look anywhere but the direction of O’Brien’s SAXON WARRIOR for this year’s contest. The unbeaten 3YO is likely to go off odds-on having won the G1 2,000 Guineas over 1,600m at Newmarket at the beginning of May. That win took his unbeaten run to four having also won at the Curragh and Naas before landing the G1 Racing Post Trophy Stakes over 1,600m at Doncaster in October of last year. He’s shown he has the gears to win over 1,600m and the son of Japanese middle-distance superstar DEEP IMPACT should have enough stamina to see out the 2,405m trip.
John Gosden is the only non-Irish trainer to land the prize since 2012, with the Frankie Dettori-ridden GOLDEN HORN winning the contest by three-and-a-half lengths ahead of JACK HOBBS. And it’s one of Gosden’s representatives, ROARING LION, who is on paper the one of the most likely to follow SAXON WARRIOR home in second following his recent win at G3 level in the 2,051m Dante Stakes. He’s taken the same route as GOLDEN HORN did in 2015, but the ground isn’t ideal and stamina is a slight worry.
Weld still has fond memories of his Derby success but his entry HAZAPOUR may find one or two too good despite winning the G3 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes over 2,000m two weeks ago. The last horse to win both races was HIGH CHAPARRAL in 2002, so the statistics don’t bode well. Dettori takes the ride and the stable is in fine form, so he should put up a good show.
MASAR was no match for SAXON WARRIOR in the G1 2000 Guineas last time out, but he was only beaten a couple of lengths and it’s too soon to write him off, especially following his previous win at Newmarket. Disposing of ROARING LION with ease, MASAR won the G3 Craven Stakes over 1,600m by an incredible nine lengths, but the ground looks to have gone against him and he has been a big drifter in the betting.
YOUNG RASCAL looked a nice type when winning the G3 Chester Vase Stakes over 2,457m and he looks classy enough to handle the drop back in trip having won over 2,200m on his seasonal reappearance at Newbury.
O’Brien is also represented by DELANO ROOSEVELT and THE PENTAGON, who look like the yard’s second and third string respectively. It’s impossible to rule either of them out, especially as WINGS OF EAGLES won at 40/1 for the same yard last year. Both finished second and third respectively in the G3 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes and O’Brien will be hopeful that they can reverse the form with HAZAPOUR.
The Harry Dunlop-trainer KNIGHT TO BEHOLD could prove best of the rest following his victory in the Listed Derby Trial Stakes at Lingfield over 2,321m ahead of O’Brien’s KEW GARDENS, who also lines up. KNIGHT TO BEHOLD stayed on strongly that day and was never going to be caught, so the trip will be no problem with Richard Kingscote in the saddle.
O’Brien is also represented by ZABRISKIE but it would be a surprise to see him lead the others home, while Mark Johnston’s DEE EX BEE could be the dark horse in this field should the rain come. He looks all about stamina having run over 2,000m as a 2YO and has won around this track on soft ground before. Admittedly, he has a lot to find with some of the best of these, but he will stay the trip and looks the value alternative to the more fancied runners.
SELECTIONS: 8. SAXON WARRIOR, 11. YOUNG RASCAL, 1. DEE EX BEE, 2. DELANO ROOSEVELT & 3. HAZAPOUR
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