 Expert - Jack Milner | |
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| Veteran journalist Jack Milner has been involved in horseracing since 1972. From then on he followed the sport closely so in 2006 when he was offered the position with Phumelela Gaming & Leisure as Managing Editor of their Publishing Department, he jumped at the chance. He is also instrumental in sending tips and previews to international customers who subscribe to South African racing. Milner is known to be an astute studier of form who reads a race very well. He is one of the leading tipsters in the country where he has a big following. He has attended international events such as the English Derby and Oaks, Royal Ascot and the Melbourne Cup. | |
Expert Column for Met Day (S1) (Jack Milner)
S1-1 CTS 1200
This is a race only open to 3YOs bought at one of the Cape Thoroughbred Sales (CTS) two years ago.
SARAH is the runner weighted to win and based on form she is the runner to beat. She has won six of her 11 starts and has a record of two wins and a fourth in her three races over 1,200m. She also comes from a very in-form stable in Paul Peter and will be ridden by the current log-leader on the South African jockey log, Warren Kennedy. There are some pundits who regard her as the best bet on the card but the main concern is that she has not yet won a race in which she has taken on the colts.
The main threat could come from INVIDIA who hails from the Ashley Fortune yard. He has been in the Cape since November and has been unlucky not to pick up a feature win. This is his mission and with Aldo Domeyer up, will run a big race.
WISTERIA WALK is unbeaten over 1,200m but trainer Lucky Houdalakis has been trying her over further. She could enjoy the return to 1,200m. Craig Zackey, who has picked up two G1 wins in Cape Town this season, takes the ride.
Mike de Kock saddles ALRAMZ and this son of SOFT FALLING RAIN has only finished unplaced in two of his seven starts. He has been fitted in blinkers for the first time and will be ridden by Bernard Fayd’Herbe.
Dennis Drier is a top trainer in KwaZulu-Natal and he saddles CARTEL CAPTAIN. He has had two promising runs since returning from a rest in which he was gelded and won well in blinkers over 1,000m last time.
SELECTIONS: 14. SARAH, 4. INVIDIA, 15. WISTERIA WALK, 1. ALRAMZ & 6. CARTEL CAPTAIN
S1-2 CTS 1600
The outcome of this race could well depend on whether trainer Joe Soma has GOT THE GREENLIGHT back to his best. He was a brilliant 2YO and wrapped up the 2019 Equus Awards as the Champion 2YO colt when winning the G1 Premiers Champion Stakes over 1,600m at Greyville in Durban. Soma nominated him to run in some of the early races in the Johannesburg Summer season but he missed them all as he suffered a minor setback. He finally came out of hibernation on 4th January but it was clear by the way he drifted in the betting that GOT THE GREENLIGHT was in need of the run. He finished fourth, beaten 6.25 lengths. Although this is a R5-million race, Soma is unlikely to bring this colt all the way to Cape Town if he did not believe he could win. He has engaged Gavin Lerena to take the ride.
CANE LIME 'N SODA is from the Vaughan Marshall yard and looks to be better than his merit rating suggests. He ran in the G1 Cape Guineas but was always at a disadvantage jumping from the widest draw of the 16 runners. He got too far back, got baulked and had to switch. By the time he got going the race was over. Despite that, he was still the fourth fastest finisher. This time he is drawn in barrier 2 and will be fitted with blinkers.
COUNT JACK has won three of his five starts and looks to be improving with each outing. Had it not been for the fact he has to jump from barrier 16, he would have been the first choice. As a result, jockey Corne Orffer will need some luck.
SACHDEV is one of four runners left in the field from the Justin Snaith yard and could be the one with the best chance. He disappointed in both the G3 Cape Classic and the G1 Cape Guineas but he was drawn wide in both and failed to get onto the race. This time he jumps from barrier 3 and that should help his cause.
WILD COAST has the reverse problem in that he ran fourth in the G1 Cape Guineas off a good draw but now jumps from barrier 14. Hopefully jockey Bernard Fayd’Herbe can overcome that hurdle.
SELECTIONS: 1. GOT THE GREENLIGHT, 5. CANE LIME 'N SODA, 8. COUNT JACK, 4. SACHDEV & 2. WILD COAST
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 1. GOT THE GREENLIGHT
Selections – 5. CANE LIME 'N SODA, 8. COUNT JACK, 4. SACHDEV & 2. WILD COAST
S1-3: Banker – 6. SUPER SILVANO
Selections – 2. SIR MICHAEL, 4. BAG OF TRICKS, 3. PARTERRE & 9. SILVER HOST
S1-3 Politician Stakes
This one of the more difficult races on the card but trainer Brett Crawford saddles four runners and the winner is likely to come from one of his runners. With stable jockey Corne Orffer taking the ride on SUPER SILVANO, that could be the best of the four. The two concerns are that he has yet to try 1,800m and he has landed at barrier 11. However, he has won over 1,600m and in his last two runs he finished second to talented stable companion COUNT JACK. Over 1,800m a wide draw is not that much of a concern as they have around 500m before they hit the turn, and there are only 11 runners.
The biggest threat to Crawford’s runners is likely to come from SIR MICHAEL, trained by Dean Kannemeyer. He has raced seven times for two wins and four places, his one unplaced run coming over 1,800m at Durbanville. However, a good draw is vital at that course and he was flying at the finish to finish fifth, just 1.45 lengths off winner BAG OF TRICKS. His last run was over 2,000m and he finished second behind SAINT WEST.
BAG OF TRICKS is also in this field and he is the mount of Anton Marcus, who is contracted to ride for owners Ridgemont. Two runs back he finished second to SUPER SILVANO but is now 10lbs better off for a 0.75-length beating. However, that was over 1,600m and the manner in which SUPER SILVANO went past him and was going away, own suspects he will still be better over this extra 200m.
PARTERRE has consistent form but Corne Orffer has ridden him in his last three starts and has now opted for SUPER SILVANO. Bernard Fayd’Herbe has ridden PARTERRE previously and he will take the ride.
Justin Snaith saddles three runners and the best of these looks to be SILVER HOST who has won two of his five starts, including a good victory over 1,800m in his first run back from a layoff.
SELECTIONS: 6. SUPER SILVANO, 2. SIR MICHAEL, 4. BAG OF TRICKS, 3. PARTERRE & 9. SILVER HOST
S1-4 Cape Flying Championship
This dash up the straight is often one of the most difficult races on the card as there are so many factors that can affect the outcome. At this time of the year the biggest concern can be the wind because Cape Town is prone to a strong south-easterly that blows across the course.
With only 11 horses going to post this time hopefully the wind will not be a big concern. KASIMIR has been the best sprinter in the country over the last year and will be going for a double in this G1 race over 1,000m. Justin Snaith’s charge has been sparingly raced over the last year, running just four times since last year’s Cape Flying
Championship. However, he did win the G2 Diadem Stakes over 1,200m and the G1 Mercury Sprint over 1,200m at Greyville in Durban in July last year. On 11th January he returned to racing in Pinnacle Stakes over 1,000m and ran a two-length fourth behind CHIMICHURI RUN. That run should have brought him on and he remains the runner to beat. Richard Fourie takes the ride.
CHIMICHURI RUN remains the danger to KASIMIR’s double hopes. He did win well last time and Sean Tarry’s charge is well above average and is sure to make KASIMIR work hard for victory. Gavin Lerena won on him last time and had retained the ride.
The unknown factor is RUN FOX RUN. The Australian-bred filly has won five out of five starts, all in style and is clearly very good. Whether she is good enough to take on and beat the colts, only the race will tell. Brett Crawford’s charge will have the services of Anton Marcus.
PACIFIC TRADER is a 1,000m specialist as he showed when winning the G1 Computaform Sprint at Turffontein in Johannesburg last year. He showed his well-being when a 0.75-length second behind CHIMICHURI RUN last time.
BOLD RESPECT is the third Brett Crawford sprinter who is rarely far off the winning group. He has won over 1,000m but is definitely better over 1,200m and will be running on late. He could win but is more likely to be a place contender.
SELECTIONS: 1. KASIMIR, 2. CHIMICHURI RUN, 9. RUN FOX RUN, 3. PACIFIC TRADER & 4. BOLD RESPECT
S1-5 Majorca Stakes
The manner in which QUEEN SUPREME disposed of a top field of fillies and mares in the G1 Paddock Stakes over 1,800m last time makes her a very hard filly to beat in this event. She beat four of her key opponents in that event and they look to have little chance in reversing the form with her. Trainer Mike de Kock was not sure what to expect as he had thrown her out in the paddock after her fourth in the G1 Summer Cup at Turffontein to give her a break. When she arrived in Cape Town she had not had much work but she just blossomed in the Cape. She shocked all with her win in the G1 Paddock Stakes, not because she won, but because of the ease of the victory. She will be even better over this distance and looks the best bet on the card.
However, one cannot fault the ability of CELTIC SEA and CLOUDS UNFOLD. CELTIC SEA has been in impeccable and has won six of her last 10 starts, including two G1 victories. She stayed 1,600m when winning the G1 Garden Province Stakes at Greyville and trainer Sean Tarry will be looking to add another to her tally.
CLOUDS UNFOLD won this race last year but she went wrong during the winter and did not go to Durban. However, reports emanating from the Candice Bass-Robinson yard is that she is now back to her best and they are expecting a big run.
FRONT AND CENTRE was all the rage to win the G1 Paddock Stakes but was thumped by QUEEN SUPREME and has her work cut out to turn the tables.
KELPIE is one of two 3YOs who could be better than her merit rating and for once has landed a decent draw.
SELECTIONS: 11. QUEEN SUPREME, 1. CELTIC SEA, 2. CLOUDS UNFOLD, 3. FRONT AND CENTRE & 13. KELPIE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5: Banker – 11. QUEEN SUPREME
Selections – 1. CELTIC SEA, 2. CLOUDS UNFOLD, 3. FRONT AND CENTRE & 13. KELPIE
S1-6: Banker – 4. HAWWAAM
Selections – 3. VARDY, 2. RAINBOW BRIDGE, 6. TWIST OF FATE & 1. DO IT AGAIN
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 11. QUEEN SUPREME, 1. CELTIC SEA & 2. CLOUDS UNFOLD
S1-6: Multiple – 4. HAWWAAM, 3. VARDY & 2. RAINBOW BRIDGE
S1-7: Multiple – 1. DOUBLEMINT, 10. DYNASTY'S BLOSSOM & 3. KAMPALA CAMPARI
S1-6 The Met
As this race is run on weight-for-age terms, it is unlikely there will be a major upset. Only five runners have the form and ability to win this race at the weights and realistically, only three have done enough in their last couple of starts to seriously be considered. They are HAWWAAM, VARDY and RAINBOW BRIDGE.
This race could go to any of them and luck in running could well decide the outcome. HAWWAAM, who is a half-brother to RAINBOW BRIDGE, arrived in Cape Town with a record of eight runs, seven wins and one second. Mike de Kock’s charge quickly notched up another win in the G2 Premier Trophy and then started odds-on favourite for the G1 Queen’s Plate over 1,600m. There was a long delay at the start as two horses were reshoed and two, including HAWWAAM, had to have their bridles replaced. After leading early on he faded in the straight to finish fifth, behind VARDY, with RAINBOW BRIDGE third. That was not HAWWAAM’s true form and he needs to be given another chance. Anton Marcus knows him well and he takes the ride again.
VARDY has been the revelation of the season. He won the G2 Green Point Stakes and the G1 Queen’s Plate, beating all of these horses impressively. He is the horse of the hour and if HAWWAAM is incapable of regaining his best form, VARDY has to be the runner to beat. It would be a great result for young trainer Adam Marcus, who is the son of Basil Marcus. He has had a remarkable season and will be well rewarded with another win.
RAINBOW BRIDGE has had a very good preparation and now that trainer Eric Sands has been able to entice British Champion jockey Ryan Moore to ride him, it will add to the mystique of the race.
TWIST OF FATE ran well enough in the G1 Queen’s Plate to run a place in this event but looks unlikely to trouble the top three.
Last year’s runner-up DO IT AGAIN has had an interrupted preparation for this race and as a result one can’t really fancy him although he is capable of winning if he can regain his best form.
SELECTIONS: 4. HAWWAAM, 3. VARDY, 2. RAINBOW BRIDGE, 6. TWIST OF FATE & 1. DO IT AGAIN
S1-7 Western Cape Stayers
Justin Snaith holds a strong hand with three runners but the best of these has to be DOUBLEMINT. This 5YO son of TWICE OVER showed his well-being with a win in the G3 Chairman’s Cup over 2,500m just three weeks ago. He meets eight of those who ran behind him in the Western Cape Stayers and with the exception of ATYAAB and TAP O’ NOTH, DOUBLEMINT is better off at the weights. He will have no problem with the distance and deserves to be favourite for this race.
One runner weighted to beat him is G3 winner DYNASTY'S BLOSSOM. DOUBLEMINT ran third in that G3 race, beaten 1.2 lengths. They meet at the same weight differential so on paper, she should beat him again. She has joined the Brett Crawford yard since then and has had two warm-up races over 1,800m. Crawford has engaged Ryan Moore for the ride and that could indicate a big run is expected.
Another well weighted runner is KAMPALA CAMPARI. He beat DOUBLEMINT by 1.9 lengths when winning the G3 Cup Trial over 1,800m at Greyville in June. He is also 5lbs better off with STRATHDON on their run in the Listed race over 2,400m at Kenilworth in November in which KAMPALA CAMPARI was beaten 0.95 lengths by Snaith’s charge.
ATYAAB finished 2.7 lengths behind DOUBLEMINT last time but he ran in patches and will have blinkers fitted for this race. Mike de Kock’s charge is now 1lb better off.
TAP O' NOTH is a former G1 Cape Guineas winner but also ran third in the G1 Daily News 2000 in 2018 behind SURCHARGE (now known as YULONG PRINCE and is winning in Australia) and MAJESTIC MAMBO (now running in Dubai). He ran on well behind DOUBLEMINT last time and is 2lbs better off. He could run a lot closer.
SELECTIONS: 1. DOUBLEMINT, 10. DYNASTY'S BLOSSOM, 3. KAMPALA CAMPARI, 2. ATYAAB & 4. TAP O' NOTH
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