 Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda |
|
|---|---|
| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Overseas Expert Column for Sprinters Stakes Day
S1-1 3yo and up WFA (2200M)
It appears that lightly-raced three-year-olds have better chances than older horses to win this race.
The most consistent and solid runner in the field is BLIND SIDE. This three-year-old colt is highly regarded by his breeder, Teruya Yoshida’s Shadai Farm, as his dam family had had some success in Japan. While it is sure that BLIND SIDE is talented, he is still green, especially sometimes in the mornings and this is the reason why he is still running in this class. He has, however, shown some improvement in his temperament recently, and he has been running well in recent starts, including finishing second in a similar class race over the same course earlier this month. I do believe BLIND SIDE has a very good chance to pick up his second win on Sunday.
Another horse in this race who is as clearly as talented as BLIND SIDE, is STELLAR WIND, also a three-year-old colt by ZENNO ROB ROY. In April, STELLAR WIND finished third in the G2 Aoba Sho, in Tokyo, a race which is widely recognized as the most important prep race for the Japanese Derby. He was beaten by FENOMENO, a 3-yo colt by STAY GOLD, who subsequently finished second in the G1 Japanese Derby. That form suggests STELLAR WIND could be competitive in the highest class. I am not sure if he will be 100% fit on Sunday - as this will be his first race since May – but I believe he should still be competitive in this class, even if he is only 60% to 70% fit after a four month break.
Another three-year-old who has chance to win is ASAKUSA MAGIC, a colt by WHITE MUZZLE. This late-developing colt has only raced three times so far. He made a successful debut at Nakayama in March, subsequently finished second in a similar class as this race in August, and then finished fourth earlier this month. ASAKUSA MAGIC is a very big horse, and looks as if he is not 100% matured yet. It’s interesting however, that Norihiro Yokoyama, one of the best jockeys in the Tokyo area, takes over the ride, which is a very encouraging factor.
It was the tenth career start for the three-year-old filly LUMINOUS RED, when she finally won her maiden over 2,000m on turf at Sapporo in August. While she had struggled to pick up her first win, she did subsequently run quite well when runner-up on her latest start earlier this month. It may not be so difficult for LUMINOUS RED to get her second win.
Among the older horses, GREAT MARSHAL, a four-year-old colt by STAY GOLD, looks to have chance to make the frame.
SELECTIONS: 14. BLIND SIDE, 17. STELLAR WIND, 6. ASAKUSA MAGIC, 13. LUMINOUS RED & 8. GREAT MARSHAL
S1-2 3yo and up WFA (1800M Dirt)
This is another lower class, which is the same condition as the former race on the same card. However, the standard of field here is much inferior to that which is run over 2,200m on turf.
Amongst the 16 runners, the form of SUGAR HILL looks outstanding. While he is only a one time winner, he has never been out of the frame in eight starts, finishing runner-up four times, and third three times. His race record shows he is solid, and as I consider the quality of this race’s field weak, I believe SUGAR HILL, a half-brother to APAPANE, winner of Triple Tiara for three-year-old fillies in 2010, has every chance to pick up his second win on Sunday.
The only possible danger to SUGAR HILL is DRAGON FORTE, a three-year-old colt by DEEP IMPACT. He ran quite well in this type of races early in the year, finishing second three times in a row. It was disappointing when he only finished tenth last month at Niigata, but it was his first start since April, and it was obvious that he needed the race. It has been reported DRAGON FORTE has trained well at Miho Training Centre since then, and it is encouraging that Yuichi Fukunaga is booked to ride him on Sunday.
EIGHT PRINCE, is still winless after 17 starts at JRA, although he was competitive in graduation class last autumn, when he finished second in two consecutive starts. EIGHT PRINCE was transferred to the regional and picked up two wins, before returned to JRA in April. Since then, he has failed again in four starts, although his course and distance effort two weeks back, when he finished third, was encouraging. I have the impression that EIGHT PRINCE has regained his best form now, and he should be good enough to finish third.
My fourth choice in this field is PHARMA SIENNE. This three-year-old filly has managed to win only once from 10 starts, but she did produce an encouraging effort when fifth last time out at Nakayama. When she won her maiden at Tokyo in May, she was ridden by Craig Williams. On Sunday, PHARMA SIENNE will be ridden by Yasunari Iwata, who is recognized as the jockey in Japan with the strongest drive.
POWER HITTER is my fifth choice in the field. His recent form looks poor, but I cannot find any other runner who has early speed, and it looks like POWER HITTER may lead the field easily. He has chance to produce an upset.
SELECTIONS: 3. SUGAR HILL, 6. DRAGON FORTE, 8. EIGHT PRINCE, 13. PHARMA SIENNE ; 12. POWER HITTER
S1-3 Fuyo Stakes
The Fuyo Stakes for two-year-olds sometime gives us useful clues to the championship races for two-year-olds. For example, in 2006 it was won by DREAM JOURNEY, who subsequently won the Asahi Hai. And WHALE CAPTURE, winner of this race in 2010, finished second in the G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies later that year. A further, more notable, name in that 2010 contest was ORFEVRE, the Triple Crown winner in 2011, who was runner-up to WHALE CAPTURE there.
Hence, it is a logical strategy, as we try to pick a winner of this race, to try to find a young talented horse with class, who could be competitive in major races in the future.
From this point of view, the most attractive runner in the field is FLAMME DE GLOIRE. The colt by DAIWA MAJOR out of SILK PRIMA DONNA, winner of the G1 Yushun Himba/Japanese Oaks in 2000, is regarded very highly by Kazuo Fujisawa, one of the top trainers based at Miho Training Center. FLAMME DE GLOIRE made his debut at Tokyo on June 9th and won the maiden over 1,400m on turf by half a length. It was not a spectacular performance, but was solid and workmanlike. Though this is FLAMME DE GLOIRE’s first start since June, it is reported that he has been training very well at Miho and should be ready to run his race on Sunday, which Norihiro Yokoyama has been booked to ride.
Another prospect for next year’s classic races in the Fuyo Stakes is EDEN ROCK by FRENCH DEPUTY. The full brother to PROVINAGE, a Stakes winner and Grade 1 Stakes placer, made a successful racecourse debut on July 22nd at Sapporo, when he made all to win a maiden over 1,800m on turf. His next start was the G3 Sapporo Nisai Stakes over 1,800m on September 1st when he finished third to CODINO, who is widely recognized as being the front runner of Japan’s two-year-old generation this year. Though the distance of the Fuyo Stakes might be shorter than ideal for EDEN ROCK, he is still a dangerous challenger to FLAMME DE GLOIRE.
The last two editions of the Fuyo Stakes were both won by fillies, and I think SAMBRE ET MEUSE, a filly by DAIWA MAJOR, who won a maiden at Niigata on August 26th, has a chance to extend her winning streak.
PREFONTAINE by ADMIRE MOON, winner of a maiden at Niigata on August 11th is also talented; however, a wider track, such as Tokyo and Niigata, may suit him better.
MEINER PEINTRE by ADMIRE MAX, winner of a maiden at Fukushima on June 24th, has a chance to be on board.
SELECTIONS: 10. FLAMME DE GLOIRE, 9. EDEN ROCK, 7. SAMBRE ET MEUSE, 2. PREFONTAINE; 12. MEINER PEINTRE
S1-4 Katsuura Tokubetsu (Handicap)
This handicap race over 1,200m on turf has attracted 25 entrants at the initial entry stage and with most of the entrants being two or three-time winners, the race looks very open.
SAKURA ADONIS, a four-year-old colt by SAKURA PRESIDENT, is a very solid runner at this standard. After winning in allowance class at Fukushima in July, SAKURA ADONIS has run well twice in the same grade as the Katsuura Tokubetsu, finishing third and second within two weeks’ time. Though this is his first time racing at Nakayama, I believe he will like the course.
The form of YAMANIN GRENOUILLE, who won at Niigata in May, looks as sold as SAKURA ADONIS. The five-year-old mare by TAIKI SHUTTLE ran quite well last time out over the same course and same distance as the Katsuura Tokubetsu. Her performance there proved that she likes the course at Nakayama very much, although she can handle all types of track.
LOREN LUNA showed a lot of improvement when he won over 1,200m on dirt at Niigata four weeks back. On that occasion, he was well settled in third position in the 15-runner field and drew clear in the homestretch. Although this is the first attempt at this standard for him, he gives the impression that he is now ready to compete here. He has picked up his two wins so far on dirt tracks but I believe he can act on turf as well. And it is an encouraging factor that Masayoshi Ebina, who could have ridden FLORAL HALL, selects this horse.
SELECTIONS: 8. SAKURA ADONIS, 13. YAMANIN GRENOUILLE, 2. LOREN LUNA
S1-5 Sprinters Stakes
The race meeting at Nakayama on the previous weekend was organized under pouring rain. The track was heavy. However, no rain is expected during the week leading up to the Sprinters Stakes. The track will have dried up at Nakayama, making it ideal for the quick horses.
CURREN CHAN, who won the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen in March and will try to achieve back-to-back victories in the G1 Sprinters Stakes, was beaten fourth in the G2 Centaur Stakes three weeks ago at Hanshin, and the post-race review by some experts suggested that CURREN CHAN might be over the top, as her racing carrier is approaching the end. However, I do not care about her defeat in the prep race at all, as her performances after a break have always been below par. In other words, CURREN CHAN is a horse which needs a race to reach 100% fitness.
CURREN CHAN’s body weight on the day of the Centaur Stakes was 22kg heavier than her previous start. Since then, she has trained beautifully at Ritto Training Center and I do believe she will be ready to run her race in the Sprinters Stakes. If so, I believe CURREN CHAN, whom I rate as the best sprinter bred in Japan in the last five years, should have every chance to collect her third win in the premier Grade on Sunday.
I always respect the sprinters and milers trained in Hong Kong, and I think LITTLE BRIDGE and LUCKY NINE are the horses to beat for CURREN CHAN.
It was a very impressive performance displayed by LITTLE BRIDGE on the opening day of Royal Ascot in June, when the six-year-old gelding devastated the field, which included Europe’s top sprinters, such as BATED BREATH and SOLE POWER, and the very fast Australian mare ORTENSIA, who subsequently won the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes at York. It looks like LITTLE BRIDGE has now reached his best and I agree with the official handicapper in Hong Kong who rates LITTLE BRIDGE two pounds higher than LUCKY NINE currently.
The horse who has a chance to cause an upset is EPICE AROME, who won the G2 Centaur Stakes at Hanshin in good style, and whom I evaluate as the future sprint champion in Japan. She was well beaten in G1 Japanese 1000 Guineas and G1 Japanese Oaks, earlier this year, proving that racing beyond a mile is not her game. As far as the races over 1,200m are concerned, she has started three times and won two of them, both Graded Stakes. And it is attractive that she will carry only 53kg, 2kg lighter than CURREN CHAN and 4kg lighter than LITTLE BRIDGE and LUCKY NINE.
And PAS DE TROIS is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 14. CURREN CHAN, 7. LITTLE BRIDGE, 5. LUCKY NINE, 15. EPICE AROME & 11. PAS DE TROIS
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (10 unit bets):
S1-4:
8. SAKURA ADONIS, 13. YAMANIN GRENOUILLE, 2. LOREN LUNA
S1-5:
Banker- 14. CURREN CHAN
Selections- 7. LITTLE BRIDGE, 5. LUCKY NINE, 15. EPICE AROME, 11. PAS DE TROIS & 16. LORD KANALOA
S1-6 Uchibo Stakes
This race, for horses belonging to the class just below Graded Stakes level, contains a couple of attractive young dirt horses.
The performance of the three-year-old colt CAFE SUPREME last time out over 1,200m on dirt at Nakayama two weeks ago was very impressive and many of us are convinced he has the class to be competitive at a higher level in the near future. He is by MANHATTAN CAFE, a triple G1 winner on turf himself and sire of lots of good turf winners such as HIRUNO D’AMOUR and RED DESIRE. His dam is by STRAVINSKY, is a half-sister to ARKADIAN HERO, winner of three Graded Stakes in the United Kingdom. His pedigree suggests that CAFE SUPREME could act on turf better than dirt, however, all his eight starts so far are dirt races, as Yasuhisa Matsuyama who trains him felt CAFE SUPREME has the potential to be a strong and fast dirt horse based on the evidence of his morning track works. And he has picked up all his three wins at Nakayama Racecourse so far. The standard of runners in CAFE SUPREME’s previous race, was inferior to this field, however, I believe the step up to this standard will not be a problem for CAFE SUPREME.
Another attractive three-year-old is K G HAYABUSA. He has started 11 races and his three wins so far were over 1,200m on dirt. The performance when he at Hanshin earlier this month was impressive. He broke fast, led all the way through, and won by five lengths. The quality of that race is also doubtful, however, I believe K G HAYABUSA could be competitive here even in a higher grade. It is another encouraging factor that Yuichi Fukunaga is booked to ride him on Sunday.
Among the older horses, the form of SOUTHERN BLAZE looks solid. He has won four races, all on dirt at distances shorter than 1,400m. Last time out he ran in the same class as the Uchibo Stakes, and finished fourth to another solid dirt runner. If SOUTHERN BLAZE reproduces that form, I believe he has a good chance to make the first three.
KOEI FLASH, a six-year-old gelding by CORONADO’S QUEST, and KYOEI KARURA, a five-year-old mare by AFLEET, the second and fifth finishers in similar class last time out, both have chances to hit the board if they both reproduce the form of that race.
SELECTIONS: 11. CAFE SUPREME, 6. K G HAYABUSA, 4. SOUTHERN BLAZE, 13. KOEI FLASH & 12. KYOEI KARURA
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: 8. SAKURA ADONIS, 13. YAMANIN GRENOUILLE, 2. LOREN LUNA
S1-5: 14. CURREN CHAN, 7. LITTLE BRIDGE & 5. LUCKY NINE
S1-6:; 11. CAFE SUPREME, 6. K G HAYABUSA & 4. SOUTHERN BLAZE
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
