 UK - Wally Pyrah |
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| With a mark of excellence in the business for over 30 years, Wally Pyrah has been notable to many in UK's racing industry. He had long been a key editorial member of The Racing Post, UK's authoritative racing/ sports wagering press, and is integral part of the expert cast in various preview shows - on screen and through the air – to major international racedays on a regular basis, such as the European classics. | |
Overseas Expert Column for Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Day (Wally Pyrah)
S1-1Qatar Grand Handicap de Longchamp
This is a typical competitive French handicap where local knowledge is paramount in finding the winner. Top-weight ROATAN won this race last year and is 5lbs higher in the handicap. He is already a Longchamp specialist, which is a positive in this company. He won last time out beating rival GOLDEN SHOWER three lengths, but the latter is now 10lbs better off at the weights.
TOUCH OF ROC has proved ultra-consistent in French handicaps and has a leading chance on his latest efforts.
AMIRANT is a German-bred colt who will love the possible soft conditions and has handicap experience which will hold him in good stead in this company. Latest information suggests he has been targeted for this race.
GOLDEN SHOWER is another who loves the Longchamp track, handles soft ground, is experienced in handicaps, and showed good form in the Autumn last season. Rupert Pritchard-Gordon's challenger has the beating of ROATAN – strictly at the weights – on their latest running and must go close.
CAT NOVA was in good form last season, but has not shown any sparkle in his recent races. He will however enjoy the probable soft ground conditions and would have a big chance if recapturing last season's form.
AL NEJMAA has proved very progressive over 2000 meters this season and is bred to be even more effective of this 2400 meters distance. The question mark is whether he will appreciate the soft ground conditions.
SELECTIONS：
2. TOUCH OF ROC, 1. ROATAN, 9. GOLDEN SHOWER & 6. AMIRANT
S1-2 Qatar Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp
It's amazing, that for a Group 1 race being run on French soil, there is only one runner representing the home country. That horse is Robert Collet's WIZZ KID (5th in this race last year) who has proved mainly disappointing this season – notably when strongly fancied but well beaten by Hong Kong's LITTLE BRIDGE in the King's Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. The four-year-old has always shown a preference for soft ground – conditions which he may encounter following heavy rain in the Paris area on Thursday – but he is a risky proposition, having shown he likes to come from behind in his races, and he could encounter traffic problems in the final 200 meters.
Rain would enhance the prospects of MAYSON, whose three wins this season have all come at Newmarket. He may have been flattered when trouncing rivals in the Group 1 July Cup on atrocious ground, but his earlier success in the Palace House Stakes (1000 meters) in May puts him on the short-list. Despite missing last month's Haydock Sprint Cup through illness, there have been some confident reports about his well-being coming from the stable and he is capable of going close.
SOLE POWER came within a whisker of winning this race last season when third to rival TANGERINE TREES and is the probable favourite to atone this time. Trainer Edward Lynam's star has run some good races this season, notably when runner-up to BATED BREATH in the Temple Stakes at Haydock after an interrupted passage, and when third to LITTLE BRIDGE in the King's Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot after drawing a negative barrier number. You can ignore his Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes' 'no-show', again due to being drawn on the wrong side of the track, and his recent come-from-behind victory in a listed race at Doncaster, suggests he will be spot-on for this event.
Trainer Robert Cowell could be represented by both MONSIEUR JOE and SPIRIT QUARTZ in this event. MONSIEUR JOE was without a win for two seasons in Britain, but did strike top-form when winning a weak looking Group 3 event from rival INXILE over the course and distance last month. He is very tough, but probably vulnerable against this top level. Much more appealing is his stablemate SPIRIT QUARTZ who although having not won in nine starts this season, has run some great races including when just caught in the last 50 meters by ORTENSIA in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes at York in his latest start. His high cruising speed would be a positive although he has not been drawn near the rail.
An unexposed three-year-old to keep an eye on is SWISS SPIRIT who after a short summer break, returned to action better than ever when taking the photo verdict over KINGSGATE NATIVE in a Group 3 event at Newbury last time. David Elsworth's challenger had previously finished fifth to JIMMY STYLES over 1200 meters at Deauville in August – denied a clear run at a crucial stage – and looks just the sort to keep improving.
Last year's winner TANGERINE TREES has been a shadow of his former-self this season and was only eighth to ORTENSIA in the King George Stakes at Goodwood, and again beaten by that rival in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York, It would be a remarkable training feat for him to successfully follow-up in this race. Old campaigner HAMISH MCGONAGALL – third to ORTENSIA in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York – interfered with close home - always runs well in these races, while SECRET ASSET is capable of running well at big odds.
SELECTIONS：
7. SWISS SPIRIT, 11. SPIRIT QUARTZ, 3. MAYSON & 10. SOLE POWER
S1-3 Total Prix Marcel Boussac - Criterium des Pouliches
The French challenge is spear-headed by three-time unbeaten PEACE BURG who has the makings of an exceptional filly. Being by SADLER'S WELLS' mare, she will appreciate any cut in the ground, and her latest success in the Prix d' Aumale (Group 3) over 1600 meters at Chantilly reads well with previous winners MERI SHIKA and FLOTILLA etc all behind.
PURR ALONG nearly caused an upset when just losing the photo verdict to next season's English 1000 Guineas favourite CERTIFY in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster last month. Having already travelled to France and won the Group 3 Prix du Calvados over 1400 meters at Deauville, she could prove a value for money win and place investment.
Twice-raced AGENT ALLISON was no match for the highly-rated NEWFANGLED in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Ascot in June, but had previously come home alone when winning a Class 5 stakes by 7 lengths on her debut at Pontefract. Connections obviously believe she is a filly who is bound to improve with a step up in distance.
MY SPECIAL J'S was obviously a bitter disappointment at the Curragh last time, but had previously showed she was a filly with a future when slamming her rivals over 1400 meters at the Curragh in August, with subsequent winner and rival MAGICAL DREAM last. Expect an improved display from her.
SELECTIONS：
3. PEACE BURG, 2. PURR ALONG & 6. AGENT ALLISON
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (120 unit bets)︰
S1-2: Multiple – 3. MAYSON, 7. SWISS SPIRIT, 10. SOLE POWER, 11. SPIRIT QUARTZ, 18. WIZZ KID & 9. SECRET ASSET
S1-3: Banker – 3. PEACE BURG Selections – 2. PURR ALONG, 6. AGENT ALLISON, 9. MY SPECIAL J'S & 8. MAGICAL DREAM
S1-4 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Grand Criterium)
The fact that main French challenger WHAT A NAME has already won over the course and distance, is to her advantage, as the 1400 meters Longchamp track is one of the fastest in Europe. This American-bred filly put the colts in their place with a scintillating course and distance success in the (Group 3) Prix la Rochette last month – rival AVANTAGE was runner-up beaten just under two lengths. Having already won in emphatic style – by seven lengths – at Deauville in August, she could prove very hard to beat.
Trainer Richard Hannon is represented by three-time winner OLYMPIC GLORY who came from nowhere to win the Class 1 Vintage Stakes over 1400 meters at Goodwood in early August – rivals THA'IR (4th) and MAXENTIUS (10th) were behind. Having run Europe's best two-year-old DAWN APPROACH to under a length when runner-up in the Coventry Stakes (1200 meters) at Royal Ascot in June, he has the best form on show.
Aidan O'Brien is a trainer to follow with his two-year-olds at the Arc meeting. He has saddled 5 winners from 11 runners since 2004. He is represented by PEDRO THE GREAT who won the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes over 1200 meters last time and is bred to appreciate the extra 200 meters, and GEORGE VANCOUVER who let his supporters down when favourite but only sixth to LEITIR MOR in Group 3 over 1200 meters at the Curragh earlier last month. PEDRO THE GREAT looks best on form, and with O'Brien's impressive French record, cannot be easily dismissed.
SELECTIONS：
9. WHAT A NAME, 1. OLYMPIC GLORY & 4. PEDRO THE GREAT
S1-5 Prix de l'Opera Longines
English trainer John Gosden sets racing fans a poser by being represented by IZZI TOP, who finished second when favourite for the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood. Having won her previous four races, she cannot be easily discounted.
The French are represented by GIOFRA who was a disappointing favourite but only sixth to SNOW FAIRY in the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet over 2000 meters at Deauville last time – IZZI TOP and GALIKOVA were second and third respectively. Previously she had won the prestigious Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket in July from ELUSIVE KATE, and would have a big chance on that form.
RIDASIYNA represents the Aga Khan family and although having won her first three races, proved disappointing when running too free and only finishing fifth in a Group 2 at Deauville last time. She will have to step up markedly on that form to have a chance.
PIRIKA has been supplemented for the race, following her second to SHARETA in the 2400 meters Group 1 Prix Vermeille here three weeks ago – with both GALIKOVA and SAGAWARA behind. That form gives her a chance to reach the frame.
GALIKOVA, who was strongly fancied to win last season's Arc, has not regained her form this season – having been beaten in all three races. She is difficult to fancy alongside stablemate SYDARRA who will probably act as her pacemaker.
RJWA is an interesting contender. This filly was third in the Group 1 Prix de Diane (French Oaks) over 2100 meters at Chantilly in June – rival LEAUPARTIE finished 6th. She has been ear-marked for this race for some time, and could surprise better fancied rivals.
SELECTIONS：
3. IZZI TOP, 9. RJWA & 2. GIOFRA
S1-6 Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
INTERESTING STATISTICS：
• 7 out of the last 10 winners came from the top 4 favourites
• All previous 10 winners had won at Group 1 level
• 9 out of the last 10 winners had a barrier number of 8 or lower
• 6 out of the last 10 winners had previously won at Longchamp
For those bettors who believe in statistics, it could pay to draw a line through nearly two-thirds of the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe challengers on Sunday. Three-year-olds have a huge statistical advantage over their elders in this 'Crown Jewel' of middle distance racing, having won 15 of the last 18 renewals. With only a handful of three-year-old challengers set to line-up at Longchamp, finding the winner should be easy – but is it? Three-year-olds have failed to beat their elders in any all-aged Group 1 race run in Britain, France and Ireland this season!
Classic winner CAMELOT spearheads the three-year-old challenge from Aidan O'Brien's Ballydoyle yard, having been touted as the third best racehorse in the world after FRANKEL and BLACK CAVIAR in mid-summer. That was until his shock defeat in the Doncaster St Leger Stakes last month, a defeat which tarnished his unbeatable reputation. Now he has aboard the world's best jockey Frankie Dettori, who will be riding in his 25th consecutive 'Arc' having won the big race three times, and this will be his first ride for the Coolmore Stud owners since he guided SCORPION to victory in the St Leger back in 2005. A word of caution however, Aidan O'Brien has saddled 41 three-year-olds at the big meeting in Paris in the last decade, and they have all been beaten.
This could be an historic occasion for Japan who have their champion ORFEVRE vying for favoritism in the Paris showpiece. The Japanese have gone close three times to winning the 'Arc' since they first sent a challenger over for the big race 43 years ago. EL CONDOR PASA (1999), NAKAYAMA FESTA (2010) were both runner-up at Longchamp, while DEEP IMPACT (3rd and later disqualified 2006) indicate they are close to knowing what it takes to win the big race in France. Last season's Japanese Triple Crown winner ORFEVRE won the Takarazuka Kinen in June, before taking the informative Group 2 Prix Foy over the course and distance on his European debut three weeks ago. The son of former HK champion STAY GOLD has top French jockey Christophe Soumillon aboard, and the four-year-old has pleased connections in his subsequent build-up to this race. HK racing fans may be interested to know ORFEVRE's name in French means 'Goldsmith' which could prove to be a lucky name.
SAONOIS is a 'rags to riches' story, having been running on the all-weather track in Deauville less than a year ago. The three-year-old caused a shock when winning the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) at Chantilly in June, and subsequently won the 'Arc' trial – Prix Niel - over the course and distance three weeks ago. The Prix Neil is without doubt the most influential pointer to an 'Arc' winner, having produced eight of the last 18 winners. It was also ideal to have won it – only four of the last 20 Arc winners were beaten in their previous race. SAONOIS has struck up a successful partnership with young 21-year-old Antoine Hamelin, and their trademark devastating turn of foot in the last 400 meters, could prove important in a slowly run race.
Last year's five lengths runner-up SHARETA flies the flag for the fillies after the recent shock withdrawals of DANEDREAM and SNOW FAIRY. This daughter of previous 'Arc' winner SINNDAR struck top-form at the end of the summer, winning her first Group 1 – The Yorkshire Oaks at York – then running out a decisive winner of the Group 1 Prix Vermeille at Longchamp three weeks back. Owner The Aga Khan, who has won this race four times, is adamant that his representative will improve on her second of last year, and her form has improved markedly with the imminence of autumn. There is a cautionary note that SHARETA has been beaten all three times she has come up against colts.
Andre Fabre's MEANDRE was no match for ORFEVRE in the Prix Foy at Longchamp three weeks back, and will be looking to improve on his sixth in the 'Arc' last season. His form is better in small fields, and Fabre may have a better opportunity of winning the big race – he has saddled the winner twice in the last 10 years – with improving three-year-old MASTERSTROKE, a comfortable winner of a Group 2 at Deauville in August, and who should step up further on his best form with this stiffer test of stamina.
Royal Ascot Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) winner SEA MOON had his Group 1 shortcomings exposed when only fifth to DANEDREAM and NATHANIEL in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot and will also be trying to give his legendry trainer Sir Michael Stoute his first Group 1 winner for over two years. YELLOW AND GREEN had her first run for over three months – won the Group 2 Prix de Malleret – when fourth to SHARETA at Longchamp. Although this prize has been her long-term target she may not be good enough. KESAMPOUR was a creditable fifth to SAONOIS in the Prix Niel, but that's probably as good as he is, while ST NICHOLAS ABBEY – beaten in the 'Arc' last year – has never won right-handed since his two-year-old's days.
It is interesting that owner Lady Rothschild has supplemented her filly GREAT HEAVENS for a cost of $HK 1m dollars into the 'Arc' field after the withdrawal of her strong fancy NATHANIEL on Thursday. Irish Oaks winner GREAT HEAVENS was being prepared for the British Champions Day at Ascot later in the month, but as three of her four wins have come on soft ground she is being allowed to take her chance.
SELECTIONS：
13. CAMELOT, 6. ORFEVRE, 8. SHARETA & 16. SAONOIS
TREBLE SELECTIONS (30 unit bets)：
S1-4: 9. WHAT A NAME & 1. OLYMPIC GLORY
S1-5: 9. RJWA, 3. IZZI TOP & 2. GIOFRA
S1-6: 13. CAMELOT, 6. ORFEVRE, 14. MASTERSTROKE, 16. SAONOIS & 1. SEA MOON
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