 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Overseas Expert Column for Golden Slipper Day (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Vinery Stud Stakes
Nobody can argue with the record of HABIBI, winner of the New Zealand Derby at her last start over 2400m. That was her sixth win from seven starts – she was third in the other. The drop back in distance shouldn’t pose a problem and she has drawn nice and low.
YOU’RE SO GOOD has yet to finish out of the quinella in five Melbourne runs, including when second in the G1 Australian Guineas at 1600m, the longest trip she has tried to date. Her gate in 12 is not ideal but I don’t think it will be enough to prevent her being in the mix again.
G1 winner NORZITA was beaten a tight margin behind top mares APPEARANCE and RED TRACER in the G1 Coolmore Classic over 1500m latest and looks appealing back against her own age group – as long as she sees out the 2000m, but I sense she will do enough to be at least placed.
Crown Oaks winner DEAR DEMI might have figured been higher on this list with a better gate but her stamina is her strong suit. Her most recent effort in the Coolmore Classic came over an insufficient distance and she did not get the clearest of runs so that can be forgiven.
For an outsider, you might want to think about GONDOKORO, who only shed her maiden status but showed promise in much tougher races before that.
SELECTIONS: 4. HABIBI, 7. YOU’RE SO GOOD, 3. NORZITA, 2. DEAR DEMI & 13. GONDOKORO
S1-2 The BMW
A hugely valuable race at around HK$18 million, a prize-fund that seems disproportionate to the line-up assembled here but at least FIVEANDAHALFSTAR has proven his reliability at the highest level and this could be the race where he snaps his run of four seconds in a row. The lightest-weighted runner in the field also seems the likely leader and champion jockey Hugh Bowman is a positive booking.
SANGSTER is a quality New Zealander which can be forgiven for his last start in the Ranvet Stakes as he jumped badly, went back and never got into the race. Expect improvement this time as he is drawn good and is an out-an-out stayer having won the Victoria Derby (2500m) and Auckland Cup (3200m) at this level.
German import MAWINGO is an unpredictable horse but he has drawn well. He has form at this distance and should get a nice run into the home straight under top rider Craig Williams.
New Zealand mare SILENT ACHIEVER has been set for this race so we can expect her to be running on at the final stages. MALUCKYDAY looked the other one to inspect.
SELECTIONS: 12. FIVEANDAHALFSTAR, 8. SANGSTER, 2. MAWINGO, 11. SILENT ACHIEVER & 5. MALUCKYDAY
S1-3 Inglis Queen of the Turf Stakes
Eight times G1 winner MORE JOYOUS is a true champion who should be close to the pace and kick clear in the stretch. She simply looks too classy against her own sex at set weights and bad luck seems her only danger.
APPEARANCE is a somewhat underrated mare but she has won two G1 fillies/mares races in the past six months, both in bunched finishes, and she is likely to figure prominently again.
With two G1 wins and one second to her credit in this company, STREAMA is obviously very well proven against the best females and with Guy Walter in great form she commands due attention.
SPIRIT SONG has placed at this level before. She is in great form at present having won a G2 last time out and placed second in a G3 the time before. From her wide gate she is likely to press forward and appears a live place prospect.
SELECTIONS: 1. MORE JOYOUS, 3. APPEARANCE, 5. STREAMA & 7. SPIRIT SONG
S1-4 Tooheys New Golden Slipper
OVERREACH is trained by four-time race winner Gai Waterhouse. The selection is the obvious favourite after a sensational win at this course and distance last start in good time. She races in front and even though the inside barrier may mean some outside pressure in the early stages, she still looks the one to beat.
SIDESTEP must also be respected from the Peter Snowden stable, winner of this race for these connections two years ago. He entered calculations after an impressive win last Saturday at this course and distance and can improve further from his ideal gate.
SWEET IDEA has never finished out of the quinella in five starts, with two wins and three seconds. Her jockey Jim Cassidy was aboard when she won well here early last month at 1100m and she looked the part in a recent barrier trial. She races just behind the speed and will be peaking for this long-term target.
CRITERION has yet to finish out of the money in four starts including three wins. He is a strong, fast-developing type of horse who has a faultless attitude and has drawn well.
VILLA VERDE found the top pick OVERREACH too strong last start but will have improved for that run. She would have figured higher in the tips had she not drawn so wide.
SELECTIONS: 11. OVERREACH, 4. SIDESTEP, 13. SWEET IDEA, 1. CRITERION & 14. VILLA VERDE
S1-5 The Daily Telegraph George Ryder Stakes
Champion 3yo PIERRO is unbeaten in nine starts in Sydney, including four at this G1 level, and this may well be another with the ideal distance. Don’t expect any spoils in the odds, however.
Another 3yo and also well-treated at the weights is REBEL DANE. He was only narrowly held by PIERRO last month and his overall form is pretty smart and Craig Williams takes over for the first time, which must be ranked a bonus.
Trainer Chris Waller has won this race for the last three years and now relies on three chances with five-time G1 winner SHOOT OUT, including in his most recent start in the Chipping Norton Stakes over a mile.
G1 winner SOLZHENITSYN is a tough middle-distance galloper and he hit the line strongly last start behind PIERRO here over 1300m, a distance short of his best. His awkward barrier doesn’t help but he can figure in the first four with luck.
VEYRON has not been out of the quinella in his last three starts in New Zealand, albeit over a little further than this, but also warrants a second glance.
SELECTIONS: 11. PIERRO, 12. REBEL DANE, 1. SHOOT OUT, 9. SOLZHENITSYN & 5. VEYRON
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4: Banker – 11. OVERREACH
Selections – 4. SIDESTEP, 13. SWEET IDEA, 1. CRITERION & 14. VILLA VERDE
S1-5: Banker – 11. PIERRO
Selections – 12. REBEL DANE, 1. SHOOT OUT, 9. SOLZHENITSYN & 5. VEYRON
S1-6 Sebring HKJC Stakes
AERONAUTICAL should probably start as favourite having run well in the G1 races in his last two starts. He was set a real task against the likes of PIERRO and MORE JOYOUS latest but didn’t disgrace himself and prior to that he was narrowly shaded into third in the Newmarket Handicap off a light weight. He is better than a G3 horse.
TIGER TEES hasn’t quite made it to the very top but he is capable of adding a race of this nature to his already decent CV. Though he was well beaten in the G1 Galaxy last week he did a lot of work early. From a handier draw this time he can prove more dangerous against slightly easier opposition.
SKYTRAIN appears a reasonable place option having won two and placed two in his last four starts. He has won at this course and distance before but will need a good ride from a potentially awkward barrier.
SEE THE WORLD goes very well at this track but has a tricky gate to contend with. Still, he got a long back off the pace last start and won going away here in a Listed race. He seems up to this class if he gets the breaks again.
SELECTIONS: 15. AERONAUTICAL, 5. TIGER TEES, 4. SKYTRAIN & 9. SEE THE WORLD
TREBLE SELECTIONS (16 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple - 11. OVERREACH & 4. SIDESTEP
S1-5: Multiple - 11. PIERRO & 12. REBEL DANE
S1-6: Multiple - 15. AERONAUTICAL, 5. TIGER TEES, 4. SKYTRAIN & 9. SEE THE WORLD
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