 Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Overseas Expert Column for the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby)
The most important factor to consider before placing a wager in the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) is whether LOGOTYPE stays 2400m or not?
It is obvious that LOGOTYPE, bred and owned by Teruya Yoshida of Shadai Farm, is outstanding from the current three-year-old generation racing over 1600m to 2000m in Japan. He won the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes over 1600m at Nakayama in December, where his winning time of 1m 33.4s equalled the race record, and he was subsequently awarded the title of Japanese Champion two-year-old colt of 2012. He won the G1 Satsuki Sho - Japanese 2000 Guineas – last month, establishing a new race record of 1m 58s, over 2000m at Nakayama.
While he is fast and strong, the question mark is how he will perform over an extra 400m at Tokyo Racecourse on Sunday?
As LOGOTYPE is related to SINGSPIEL, winner of three G1s over 2400m; CARLING, winner of the G1 Prix Vermeille over 2400m at Longchamp and RISEN STAR, winner of the G1 Belmont Stakes over 2400m, some experts insist he will stay 2400m.
On the other hand, LOHENGRIN, sire of LOGOTYPE, is a two time winner of the G2 Milers Cup. His winning time in 2003 - 1m 31.9s - was a track record over 1600m at Hanshin Racecourse. He also finished second in G1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp, and third in the G1 Hong Kong Mile.
STEREOTYPE, dam of LOGOTYPE, was a winner of two races, both of them over 1400m. She also finished second in allowance race over 1700m at Hakodate Racecourse.
As both the sire and dam are milers, and his conformation looks like his sire, it is my opinion that LOGOTYPE does NOT stay 2400m. Though he may have chance to finish in first five, I think it will be difficult for him to win the Derby.
The pedigree of EPIPHANEIA, who was second in the G1 Satsuki Sho, suggests 2400m is his distance. He is by SYMBOLI KRIS S, winner of four G1s between 2000m to 2500m. His mare CESARIO is the winner of G1 Japanese Oaks, over 2400m at Tokyo. And his broodmare sire is SPECIAL WEEK, winner of the G1 Japanese Derby and G1 Japan Cup, both over 2400m at Tokyo. Hence my selection for the Derby is EPIPHANEIA, for which the Derby course will be the best stage to display his true ability.
HIRABOKU DEEP, winner of G2 Aoba Sho, one of the most important prep races for the Derby, as it is run over the Derby course and distance, has been highly regarded by trainer, Sakae Kunieda, as his Derby candidate since day one, when Kunieda saw him. Though the competition here is much tougher than the previous start, my second choice is HIRABOKU DEEP, who is now improving like skyrocket.
My third choice is KIZUNA, winner of the G3 Mainichi Hai at Hanshin in March, and the G2 Kyoto Shimbun Hai last time out. The turn of foot he displayed down the homestretch in the last two starts, was very impressive, and reminds me of the performance of his sire DEEP IMPACT.
MEIKEI PEGA STAR, winner of G3 Kyodo News Service Hai Stakes at Tokyo in February, is my fourth choice.
SELECTIONS: 9. EPIPHANEIA, 7. HIRABOKU DEEP, 1. KIZUNA, 5. MEIKEI PEGA STAR & 8. LOGOTYPE
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