 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Overseas Expert Column for Dubai World Cup Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 UAE Derby
Trainer Mike de Kock had saddled 6 of the 16 winners of the G2 UAE Derby, including MUBTAAHIJ 12 months ago, but his VALE DORI may struggle to beat wonder filly POLAR RIVER. The unbeaten daughter of CONGRATS is on track to land the UAE Triple Crown, having bolted up in the UAE 1000 Guineas in February and followed that with a facile win over VALE DORI in the UAE Oaks earlier this month. She coasted home that day and it’s impossible to envisage a reversal of the form, as the pair meet once again on exactly the same terms.
Doug Watson, the now Dubai-based American handler, has made no secret of the fact that he rates POLAR RIVER the best horse he has ever trained. That’s high praise from Watson who this season has landed his fourth UAE champion trainer title with an impressive tally of 56 winners. The two fillies look a class above the rest of the opposition and it would be a shock if the pair do not fill the first two places. Of the remainder, US raider FRANK CONVERSATION looks to be getting his act together as he matures, but looks held on what he has achieved to date.
The two dark horses in the race are the Japanese pair YU CHANGE and LANI. It’s often dangerous to dismiss raiders from the Far East on Dubai World Cup night, but nothing either has achieved suggests they are capable of upsetting POLAR RIVER or VALE DORI.
A bigger threat may come from the Frankie Dettori-ridden LAZZAM who has run with credit in two races on the dirt here at Meydan in recent months. He finished a well-beaten second to MARKET RALLY in the UAE 2000 Guineas last month and occupied that same position behind the same horse, albeit finishing a little closer, earlier this month. That form is way below what is required here and should not be good enough to trouble the fillies.
SELECTIONS: 2. POLAR RIVER, 5. VALE DORI, 1. FRANK CONVERSATION, 7. LAZZAM & 4. YU CHANGE
S1-2 Al Quoz Sprint
The last four winners of the G1 Al Quoz Sprint have come from different corners of the world, proving the ever-growing global popularity of this valuable prize. SOLE POWER (Ireland), AMBER SKY (Hong Kong), SHEA SHEA (South Africa) and ORTENSIA (Australia) have landed the prize in recent years, but it is a local hope that heads the betting this time.
ERTIJAAL, trained in the United Kingdom by William Haggas until the end of 2014, has been revolutionised by the switch to the Ali Rashid Al Raihe yard. Winner of his last 4 starts, the five-year-old gelding has been transformed by the switch back to 1,000m, boasting a two from two record over the minimum trip. However, both of those two wins have come in handicaps and the step up to G1 company will provide a stern test.
Last year’s winner SOLE POWER is back for more at the ripe old age of nine, and looked on good terms with himself in his trial earlier this month. He was beaten a short neck by FITYAAN over this course and distance and looks sure to run his usual genuine race. His form figures at Meydan are ultra-consistent as well.
SOLE POWER beat Hong Kong-challenger PENIAPHOBIA by ½ length 12 months ago and there is unlikely to be much between them this time. Tony Cruz’s five-year-old continues to hold his consistent level of form, but may find one or two too good once more.
That could easily be fellow Hong Kong-raider NOT LISTENIN’TOME who looks a real 1,000m specialist and can go close with Ryan Moore booked to ride for the first time. The son of DYLAN THOMAS may not be bred for sprinting, but is all about speed and has won both of his last two starts over this trip.
The Australian horse BUFFERING makes his Meydan debut at the grand old age of eight. He lines up in decent form, but the suspicion is that he is better suited to 1,200m.
LADY SHIPMAN fly the flag for the USA and finished second in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. The filly in particular looks a real speedball and certainly cannot be discounted over this trip.
A final mention must go to top UK sprinters GOLDREAM and MUTHMIR who landed the sprinting honours at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood respectively. Of the pair, slight preference is for MUTHMIR but again there shouldn’t be much between the two.
SELECTIONS: 4. NOT LISTENIN’TOME, 7. SOLE POWER, 5. PENIAPHOBIA, 6. ERTIJAAL & 10. MUTHMIR
S1-3 Dubai Golden Shaheen
An American-trained runner won last year’s G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen and the US once again hold a leading hand with X Y JET and CONFRONTATION at the head of the market. X Y JET scorched his way to success in the G3 event last month, which was incidentally his fifth straight win on the bounce. Things did not go to plan that day, as he stumbled exiting the barriers and showed real battling qualities as well as stamina to fend off all challengers. Interestingly, the trip on that occasion was 1,300m, so proves the four-year-old gelding can run all the way to the wire.
Fellow US-raider CONFRONTATION brings track form to the contest, having won on the dirt her earlier last month. That race was over 1,600m, so there has to be a slight concern that he will be able to match X Y JET in the speed department.
The same shouldn’t be a problem for the locally trained MUARRAB who seems to be improving with every run at the Carnival. Having tracked the strong pace here on his penultimate start last month, the seven-year-old failed to peg back RICH TAPESTRY. However, when allowed to dictate matters from the front last time, he showed blistering pace and burnt off all challengers to score by over five lengths with RICH TAPESTRY back in third. Whether he will have the tactical speed to live with X Y JET is the big question, but he will certainly be the one that duels with the favourite up front.
As for RICH TAPESTRY, he finished second in this contest in 2014, beaten less than a length by STERLING CITY. He returned last year to hit the frame once more, this time finishing 1 ½ lengths behind SECRET CIRCLE in third. There is every chance he might hit the frame again, but the suspicion remains his best opportunity of landing this prize may have gone.
Hong Kong-challenger SUPER JOCKEY was only beaten a head by SECRET CIRCLE in this race 12 months ago and returns in decent form. He was only beaten a short head by NOT LISTENIN’TOME on the turf over 1,000m at Sha Tin last time and will appreciate the return to the dirt.
REYNALDOTHEWIZARD is showing no sign of slowing down in his tenth year and won a trial here back in January. Winner of this race back in 2013, it would be a big shock if one of the younger generation wasn’t speedy enough to fend him off.
SELECTIONS: 3. X Y JET, 6. SUPER JOCKEY, 8. CONFRONTATION, 7. MUARRAB & 1. RICH TAPESTRY
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 3. X Y JET
Selections – 6. SUPER JOCKEY, 8. CONFRONTATION, 7. MUARRAB & 1. RICH TAPESTRY
S1-4: Banker – 2. TRYSTER
Selections – 11. VERY SPECIAL, 8. INTILAAQ, 1. FORRIES WALTZ & 14. REAL STEEL
S1-4 Dubai Turf
SOLOW, an impressive winner of the G1 Dubai Turf 12 months ago, was sadly ruled out of the defence of his crown last week having failed to recover from a knock sustained in a gallop at home. His absence gives the race a far more open feel with the British-trained pair TRYSTER and INTILAAQ now vying for favouritism.
Charlie Appleby’s TRYSTER has won 9 of his 12 career starts to date, including both of his trials at Meydan. The five-year-old appears to be on a steep upward curve and has demonstrated a devastating turn of foot to land both races at this track. If there is one minor concern with the Godolphin-owned runner, it’s his exaggerated waiting tactics which leave very little margin for error in a big field like this. That said, it’s a very long straight at Meydan and jockey William Buick will have plenty of time to angle out of any trouble and find a clear passage.
His biggest danger might come from compatriot INTILAAQ who is set to make his Meydan debut. The four-year-old son of DYNAFORMER has not been seen on a racecourse since last August and has only raced five times in his short career to date. However, he has bundles of untapped potential and was thought good enough to run in last year’s G1 2000 Guineas on only the third racecourse start of his life. That all proved to come too soon for him, but impressive wins at Newbury and Haydock towards the end of last season marked him out as a genuine G1 performer. His lack of a recent run, as well as his limited racecourse experience, is a slight concern, but trainer Roger Varian is a master at preparing a horse for its big day.
Ryan Moore takes over from Yuichi Fukunaga on Japanese raider REAL STEEL who was only narrowly beaten by DURAMENTE in a G2 event over this trip last time. As a son of DEEP IMPACT, he seems pretty versatile when it comes to trip and there won’t be many staying on stronger at the finish.
Anything Mike De Kock runs on Dubai World Cup night is always worth a second look and the South African saddles FORRIES WALTZ in this. The four-year-old has looked a different proposition at Meydan this year having won over a mile here in January and following that up with a comfortable win in a G2 event over this trip back in January. He will need to step up again to take a hand in this, but he won last time like a horse who is definitely progressing.
Finally, it’s worth mentioning the other Godolphin-owned runner VERY SPECIAL. She seems to have flourished since landing in Dubai and has started to take her form to new levels, landing two G2 successes with relative ease. Admittedly, she is another who needs to step up again, but she is starting to live up to her name.
SELECTIONS: 2. TRYSTER, 11. VERY SPECIAL, 8. INTILAAQ, 1. FORRIES WALTZ & 14. REAL STEEL
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 2. TRYSTER, 11. VERY SPECIAL & 8. INTILAAQ
S1-5: Multiple – 7. POSTPONED, 4. DURAMENTE & 1. LAST IMPACT
S1-6: Multiple – 11. CALIFORNIA CHROME, 5. SPECIAL FIGHTER & 9. FROSTED
S1-5 Dubai Sheema Classic
There may only be nine runners for the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic, but what the field lacks in quantity, it more than makes up for in quality. British-trained POSTPONED, winner of last season’s prestigious G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot, is joined by G1 Hong Kong Vase winner HIGHLAND REEL and G1 2,400m Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) winner DURAMENTE.
POSTPONED was making his first start for trainer Roger Varian when bolting up in a G2 over course and distance earlier in the month. He had previously been trained by Luca Cumani for his previous 13 starts but a falling out with his owner led to the removal of all his horses. The five-year-old looked on good terms with himself in his prep race and will be a tough nut to crack.
Aidan O’Brien tends not to have too many runners at this meeting, but when he does send one over it normally pays to keep them on side. ST NICHOLAS ABBEY landed this race for the Coolmore team back in 2013 and HIGHLAND REEL looks just the type to put up a bold show here. The globetrotting four-year-old ended last season’s campaign with runs at Goodwood, Arlington, Leopardstown, Moonee Valley and Sha Tin, racking up plenty of air miles in the process. This 2,400m trip seems to suit well and the booking of Ryan Moore is another huge positive.
Last year’s dual Japanese Classic winner DURAMENTE returned from a long injury layoff to win the G2 Nakayama Kinen last month. He had a neck to spare over AMBITIOUS at the line that day, but the 600m step up in trip looks sure to help. The big question mark is whether he can return to the level of form he showed pre-injury.
LAST IMPACT was only beaten a neck in last year’s G1 Japan Cup and finished sixth behind DURAMENTE at Nakayama last month. He is bound to be fitter for that outing and is another who will benefit from the step up in trip.
French-raider DARIYAN finished third to HIGHLAND REEL in Hong Kong and finished second to POSTPONED on his debut at Meydan earlier this month. He was well held on both occasions and it would be a surprise if he reversed the placings with either of those two.
SELECTIONS: 7. POSTPONED, 4. DURAMENTE, 1. LAST IMPACT, 8. HIGHLAND REEL & 9. DARIYAN
The G1 Dubai World Cup, with a staggering purse of $10 million US Dollar, has a habit of throwing up strange results. GLORIA DE CAMPEAO (2010), VICTOIRE PISA (2011), MONTEROSSO (2012), AFRICAN STORY (2014) and PRINCE BISHOP (2015) have all defied their ‘outsider’ tags to land the world’s richest horse race in recent years. This year will be the second time the contest will be run on dirt following the removal of the Tapeta surface in an attempt to continue to attract US-trained runners.
Last year’s runner-up and the contest’s highest-rated contender CALIFORNIA CHROME is back for more, so the ploy looks to have worked. Trainer Art Sherman has been making bullish noises about the five-year-old’s chances in recent days, suggesting the former G1 Kentucky Derby winner would be ‘five lengths better than last year’. If his trainer is to be believed, he will take plenty of catching. The other huge positive for CALIFORNIA CHROME this year, as opposed to last year, is that this time he lines up on the back of a prep run at Meydan. He looked majestic when waltzing away with a handicap over course and distance last month, so is obviously in rude health.
Sheikh Mohammed will be hoping to land his own prize for an eighth time with another US-trained runner - the four-year-old FROSTED. He seemed to spend most of last season chasing AMERICAN PHAROAH’s shadow around US tracks, but may just have blossomed another year on. The form of his G2 win may not amount to much, but he could not have done it any more impressively and he looks sure to play a hand in the finish.
MSHAWISH adds strength to an already powerful US team and the former Mikel Delzangles-trained six-year-old looks to be another improving with age and the switch to a dirt surface.
There wasn’t a more impressive winner on the card 12 months ago than Mike De Kock’s MUBTAAHIJ in the G2 UAE Derby. The son of DUBAWI had 8 lengths to spare over MAFTOOL at the line and looked destined for great things. Sadly, the four-year-old hasn’t won a race since following a relatively disappointing show in the G1 Kentucky Derby. He was well beaten by SPECIAL FIGHTER over course and distance earlier in the month and it would take a huge leap of faith to expect that form to be turned around.
In fact, at a massive price, the locally trained SPECIAL FIGHTER looks sure to go well at big odds. He was aggressively ridden from the front in the G1 Al Maktoum Challenge R3 last time with the likes of MUBTAAHIJ and KEEN ICE trailing in his wake. This track has often lent itself well to those at the front end and a repeat of those similar forceful tactics can see him go close.
KEEN ICE will always go down in history as the horse who beat AMERICAN PHAROAH in the G1 Travers Stakes. Whether he has the tactical speed to hold his position in a race that looks sure to be contested at a blistering pace is up for debate.
SELECTIONS: 11. CALIFORNIA CHROME, 5. SPECIAL FIGHTER, 9. FROSTED, 2. MSHAWISH & 1. KEEN ICE
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