Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Japan Cup (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1     Japan Cup


It is common recognition that the current three-year-old colts in Japan are a vintage crop, and its standard is very high. Although most of this year’s Derby runners have not had the chance to compete against older horses yet, LORD QUEST, who finished 11th in the G1 Japanese Derby, won the G3 Keisei Hai Autumn Handicap in September, beating a good group of older milers, while RAINBOW LINE, who was 8th in the Derby, ran well in the G2 Sapporo Kinen in August, in which reigning Horse of the Year MAURICE was 2nd and RAINBOW LINE was 3rd, only a neck behind MAURICE.


My first pick from the field of the Japan Cup is DEE MAJESTY, who represents the three-year-colts trained by the home nation in this international event.


The colt by DEEP IMPACT, was the winner of the G1 Satsuki Sho, the first leg of Triple Crown for three-year-old's over 2,000m in April. He finished third behind MAKAHIKI and SATONO DIAMOND in the Derby, after missing some training days, due to a high temperature after his Satsuki Sho win. In my opinion, he should have won the Derby, if he was 100% fit on the day, and I believe he is as good as MAKAHIKI and SATONO DIAMOND. After winning the G2 St. Lite Kinen in September, DEE MAJESTY was beaten into 4th place in the G1 Kikuka Sho, and it has been analyzed he did not have enough stamina to stay 3,000m. I understand DEE MAJESTY will show his true ability over 2,400m in Tokyo.


Amongst the older horses, I like CHEVAL GRAND the best, and he is my second choice. As like many progeny by HEART’S CRY, CHEVAL GRAND is a late bloomer and is now rising like a sky rocket. He did not run in any leg of the Triple Crown last year, and was running in allowance races of graduation class 12 months ago. CHEVAL GRAND is a different horse now. He won his first Graded Stakes in March in the G2 Hanshin Daishoten, and then, finished 3rd in the G1 Tenno Sho Spring. What was impressive was his way of winning the G2 Copa Republica Argentina on the 6th November at Tokyo, and I am convinced he is now a better horse than he was in spring time.   


Yoshito Yahagi, the leading trainer in Japan, was undecided whether to send REAL STEEL, winner of the G1 Dubai Turf, to either the Japan Cup or Hong Kong Cup. After due consideration he has selected the Japan Cup. Honestly speaking, I think the best trip for him is around 2,000m.  However, he is a versatile horse, having finished 2nd in the G1 Kikuka Sho over 3,000m, and I believe 2,400m is within his territory. Yahagi has booked Ryan Moore for REAL STEEL, which is an encouraging and positive factor.


I also respect the consistency of KITASAN BLACK, winner of two G1 Stakes. On the other hand, I think Tokyo Racecourse, which has a long homestretch, is not an ideal track for this horse, ridden by Yutaka Take.


I think the 'forgotten horse' in the field is LAST IMPACT, who finished 2nd in this event 12 months ago, and finished a good 3rd in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic in March. Although he was well beaten in both his last two starts, Katsuhiko Sumii should have trained him towards the Japan Cup, as the race to aim in the autumn.

SELECTIONS: 9. DEE MAJESTY, 17. CHEVAL GRAND, 16. REAL STEEL, 1. KITASAN BLACK & 6. LAST IMPACT

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