 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Gold Cup Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Norfolk Stakes
The opening race on Thursday’s card sees 18 speedballs go to post in the G2 Norfolk Stakes run over 1,000m. American trainer Wesley Ward won this race in 2013 with NO NAY NEVER and has a strong chance of enhancing his fine Ascot record with MCERIN. The 2YO made virtually all on his debut back in April, winning by almost eight lengths to shed his maiden tag in style. He followed that up with a third-placed finish at Churchill Downs on the dirt but was only beaten a neck and a nose after edging right and is sure to come on for the experience. Going into this week’s action, Ward has had 34 runners at Royal Ascot since 2009, 10 of which have won or placed so he is a trainer to take note of.
Tom Dascombe’s FROZEN ANGEL won over course and distance back in May ahead of a well-fancied CORINTHIA KNIGHT to put himself into contention for this race. He came up short last time out at Sandown when finishing second in the Listed National Stakes behind HAVANA GREY. However, Ascot’s flat straight course will undoubtedly help him as he tries to put it all together and he’s likely to be a value play in a wide-open race.
Trainer Richard Fahey has never won this event but holds a great chance with the aptly named IT DONT COME EASY. He finished fourth of eight on debut but stepped up on that form when winning a maiden at Musselburgh in June. This son of KYLLACHY got the better of a heavily fancied REBEL ASSAULT that day, with the front two coming 10 lengths clear of the chasing pack.
Declan Carroll’s unbeaten SANTRY landed the conditions company on debut at Doncaster, narrowly getting the better of LAST PAGE on the first day of the Flat racing season. He proved that was no fluke last month when winning by over two lengths at York and the only worry is whether he’ll handle the drying conditions. Both wins so far have been on good-to-soft and soft ground and connections will hoping the surface is well watered following a particularly hot spell in Berkshire.
Trainer David O’Meara knows a thing or two about training speedy types and he will be represented in the race by Catterick winner CONSEQUENCES. He showed off his potential when finishing second behind SANTRY on debut and made no mistake when confirming that promise at Catterick. O’Meara’s entry won by 2½ lengths without ever being fully tested and looks sure to come on again with conditions to suit and Daniel Tudhope in the saddle.
Passing a stubborn Mark Johnston runner when it hits the front is no easy task and connections will be hoping that’s the case with CARDSHARP. One of the more experienced runners in the race, CARDSHARP kept on well to land the money at Beverley last time out and will appreciate the fast ground. He had previously finished second behind Coventry Stakes runner DE BRUYNE HORSE in the Woodcote Stakes and looks sure to come on for the run once again and his experience could prove vital.
HAVANA GREY has won two on the bounce at Ayr and Sandown since showing promise on debut at Nottingham and it would be no surprise to see him pushing for a place.
SELECTIONS: 4. FROZEN ANGEL, 7. IT DONT COME EASY, 9. MCERIN, 14. SANTRY & 3. CONSEQUENCES
S2-2 Hampton Court Stakes
The lightly-raced MIRAGE DANCER only saw the racecourse once as a 2YO landing his ordinary maiden over 1,400m at Doncaster last October. His trainer Sir Michael Stoute is renowned for his patience with his horses and the colt only reappeared in May at Chester having been given plenty of time to mature over the winter. Considering his lack of experience, he ran well to finish fourth in the 2,064m Dee Stakes after being denied a run at a crucial time before running on well at the end. CLIFFS OF MOHER, the eventual winner that day, went on to run with real credit to finish second in the G1 2,405m Derby Stakes. Stoute resisted the opportunity to run MIRAGE DANCER in that race suggesting it would have come too soon for him at this stage of his career. He has held him back deliberately for this G3 1,993m Hampton Court Stakes and it will take a good one to beat him here.
Another lightly-raced colt of interest is the Godolphin-owned BENBATL. The son of DUBAWI only made his racecourse debut at Doncaster over 1,400m back in April. He ran out an impressive seven length winner that day and was somewhat thrown in at the deep end just over two weeks later in the G3 1,600m Craven Stakes. To be fair, he ran well to come third that day finishing two lengths behind EMINENT and looked pretty inexperienced at the business end of the race. He stepped up again next time to finish second in the G2 2,051m Dante Stakes at York beaten under a length by PERMIAN. Connections then opted to run him in the G1 2,405m Derby Stakes where he finished a gallant fifth in his first-time hood. He brings the best form into this race, but he has achieved everything in a short space of time and there is a worry that so much racing may have caught up with him. Another concern is that he wouldn’t want the ground to ride too quick and the forecast thunderstorms would be welcomed.
Aidan O’Brien is represented by ORDEROFTHEGARTER and TAJ MAHAL with preference for the former who is the mount of Ryan Moore. He followed a really good win in the 1,600m Listed Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial in April, where he had TAJ MAHAL well beaten in behind, with a fifth place finish in the G1 1,600m French 2000 Guineas at Deauville. He looked a little outpaced over that trip, but ran on well at the end of the race. The step up in trip helped when beaten three lengths by BRAMETOT when sixth in the G1 2,100m Prix du Jockey Club. He didn’t get the smoothest of passages that day and arguably could have finished even closer.
Fellow Irish raider IRISHCORRESPONDENT is interesting stepped up in trip from 1,600m for the first time. He finished third behind CHURCHILL in the G1 1,600m Irish 2000 Guineas and looks well worth a try over another 400m. Winning two of his previous three starts, he could prove a big danger to all if staying this extra trip.
My final selection has to be another one of the Godolphin runners in the shape of BAY OF POETS. He has had a busy campaign and was beaten far when seventh (one place behind ORDEROFTHEGARTER) in the G1 Prix du Jockey Club. Significantly, he has been gelded since that run earlier in the month and that may bring about some improvement.
SELECTIONS: 9. MIRAGE DANCER, 11. ORDEROFTHEGARTER, 6. IRISHCORRESPONDENT, 3. BENBATL & 2. BAY OF POETS
S2-3 Ribblesdale Stakes
Jockey Ryan Moore has won the previous two editions of the G2 Ribblesdale Stakes. Moore tasted success on CURVY in 2015 and EVEN SONG in 2016 and has a strong chance of making it three in a row with ALLURINGLY. Aidan O’Brien’s filly made her reappearance this season a winning one when dispatching of 12 other rivals to land a maiden at Tipperary. She improved on that performance markedly next time up when running ENABLE to within two lengths in the Listed company, with the front two drawing well clear of the pack. The daughter of FASTNET ROCK then finished third behind ENABLE and stable companion RHODODENDRON in the G1 Oaks Stakes and there is reason to believe she can improve again. O’Brien’s 3YO held an entry in the G1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes up until last week, so she is obviously held in high regard by her connections. All three of her appearances this season have come on good ground so conditions are sure to be ideal with no rain expected before Royal Ascot gets under way.
Sir Michael Stoute has won this race three times and his entry MORI is expected to be the one giving ALLURINGLY the most to think about she bids to give him his fourth. The impeccably bred FRANKEL filly out of MIDDAY put a disappointing debut effort at Newbury in April behind her when coming home in front at the course in May. However, it was her dominant display at Goodwood in Listed company a month ago which got people excited as she readily came away when being kept up to her work in the final furlong. Stoute loves nothing more than a winner on the big Royal Ascot stage and MORI is another who won’t mind the dry conditions having won on good to firm.
Crowd favourite Frankie Dettori is the leading jockey in the race having landed the G2 contest on six different occasions, most recently with HIBAAYEB in 2010. However, his injury means Olivier Peslier rides CORONET this time around and will be fancied by many to follow home the first two for trainer John Gosden. She came into 2017 unbeaten following victories at Leicester and Newmarket and made an impressive enough reappearance at Deauville in May. The tricky undulating course proved too much for her in the G1 Oaks Stakes earlier this month when finishing fifth but it would be no surprise to see her put that performance well behind her.
Connections of Lingfield Listed Oaks Trial Stakes winner HERTFORD DANCER have obviously liked what they have seen on the gallops having supplemented her for the race. She won that Listed race with a little bit in hand ahead of a couple of well-fancied O’Brien and William Haggas entries, pulling more than seven lengths clear of the latter.
Irish raider NAUGHTY OR NICE is two from two this season following wins at Gowran Park and Navan. She’s the least exposed in the race and could be anything.
SELECTIONS: 1. ALLURINGLY, 8. MORI, 5. CORONET, 7. HERTFORD DANCER & 9. NAUGHTY OR NICE
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-3: Banker – 1. ALLURINGLY
Selections – 8. MORI, 5. CORONET, 7. HERTFORD DANCER & 9. NAUGHTY OR NICE
S2-4: Banker – 3. ORDER OF ST GEORGE
Selections – 1. BIG ORANGE, 5. SHEIKHZAYEDROAD, 14. SWEET SELECTION & 6. TORCEDOR
The most prestigious race across Ascot’s five-day royal meeting is the G1 Gold Cup raced over a stamina-sapping 3,991m. The absence of talented French-raider VAZIRABAD looks to have left the door wide open for Aidan O’Brien to scoop an eighth win in eleven years with last year’s hero ORDER OF ST GEORGE. The 5YO son of GALILEO marched down Ascot’s home straight to victory in 2016 and it’s hard to see anything stopping his procession again this year. He showed his class by claiming third in an O’Brien-trained 1-2-3 of the 2,400m G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and there can’t be any stamina doubts after last year’s Gold Cup romp.
There’s not many more physically imposing Flat horses in training than the aptly names BIG ORANGE. The 6YO last visited Royal Ascot back in 2014, where he finished fourth in the Queen’s Vase. That race has thrown up two of the last four winners, in the shape of ESTIMATE and LEADING LIGHT, and BIG ORANGE definitely has the right sort of profile to get involved here. He finished a good fourth in the G2 Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan before an imperious performance in the G3 Henry II Stakes at Sandown last month. He’s a true stayer who wears his heart on his sleeve and is likely to be ridden on the front end from the off. ORDER OF ST GEORGE is taken to reel him in and there will be others with the same idea.
SIMPLE VERSE is likely to sit in behind and she’s very good on here on Thursday. She finished ahead of ORDER OF ST GEORGE in the G2 company over 3,200m on British Champions Day. The rain-softened autumnal ground was in her favour that day, though, and she’s unlikely to get those conditions again here. If any rain does fall then you’d have to make her a leading fancy, but others are preferred on the likely fast going.
Trainer Hughie Morrison will be confident of SWEET SELECTION’s chances after her win in the 3,190m G3 Sagaro Stakes at the start of May. After an unusually dry spring, the ground at Ascot was very quick on Thursday so there’s no worries about the going for her. Still, having made only two appearances in Group company, including that latest triumph at the track, she still has plenty to prove and would have to run a career best to go close.
Mrs John Harrington has had a remarkable 2017. The Irish trainer bagged National Hunt racing’s holy grail, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and now bids to become the first trainer to land the Cheltenham-Ascot Gold Cup double with TORCEDOR. He has come on leaps and bounds this year, progressing from his victory in a handicap at Leopardstown to winning the G3 Vintage Crop Stakes at Navan, a well-recognised prep race for the Gold Cup. He had the well-fancied ORDER OF ST GEORGE in behind that day and it wouldn’t be a total shock if he were to lower the colours of O’Brien’s runner once again.
SHEIKHZAYEDROAD is a solid candidate. He came with a late charge to finish third in last year’s renewal before returning to the track to land the G2 contest over 3,200m and should also be respected.
SELECTIONS: 3. ORDER OF ST GEORGE, 1. BIG ORANGE, 5. SHEIKHZAYEDROAD, 14. SWEET SELECTION & 6. TORCEDOR
S2-5 Britannia Stakes (Handicap)
There are a number of hugely competitive handicaps at Royal Ascot and the 1,600m Britannia Handicap for 3YOs is always one of the most interesting with 30 runners hurtling up the straight course. Last year’s winner DEFROCKED was sold to Hong Kong and now races as LIMITLESS under the care of Caspar Fownes. You can be sure there will be plenty of offers for the winner of this year’s race and Qatar Racing will be hoping they can land the prize with one of their three entries.
SON OF THE STARS looks to have the best chance of their trio. Richard Hannon’s son of DELEGATOR has won two of his three career starts and was only just touched off at Newmarket last time. He has been kept fresh for this and you can be sure that he will end the season higher than his current handicap mark of 95.
The horse who beat him in that 1,600m handicap at Newmarket, RONALD R, also has to go on the shortlist. He was making his seasonal reappearance in that race and got the job done well, finishing a head in front of SON OF THE STARS with nearly three lengths back to the third. That looks to be strong form and there shouldn’t be much between this duo again.
Richard Spencer is a young trainer that you will be hearing plenty about over the next few years. There has been plenty of investment into his yard and he saddles KEYSER SOZE in this. The son of ARCANO was gelded in the winter, which really seems to have done the trick as he has won both his starts this term. He broke his maiden at Thirsk in April and then followed up with a really impressive display to beat GYMNASTE at Kempton last month.
Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore are always a dangerous combination at Royal Ascot and the pair team up with CITY OF JOY, who has also benefited from a gelding operation. The son of ELUSIVE CITY is on a hat-trick after 1,600m wins at Doncaster and Chelmsford City and he should appreciate the quick ground.
Charles Hills has his team in great form and he relies on AFAAK who is yet another contender trying to land a hat-trick. He won a 1,600m handicap at Doncaster last time on soft ground, but I’m sure he will be more at home on this quicker surface. Champion jockey Jim Crowley takes the ride and he looks to have solid claims in a wide open contest.
In addition to SON OF THE STARS, Hannon also saddles MEDAHIM who can run well at what should be a decent price. He hasn’t won since his debut in December, but he ran well at Goodwood over 1,400m last time to finish a close second to SUTTER COUNTY. He is another who should prove well-handicapped.
Saeed bin Suroor has never won this race and he will be hoping LEADER’S LEGACY can end the hoodoo. This son of WAR FRONT is two from two this season and has the services of legendary jockey Gerald Mosse. A fast run race on quick ground is right up his street, so conditions looks like they will be perfect.
SELECTIONS: 21. KEYSER SOZE, 15. LEADER'S LEGACY, 22. AFAAK, 14. SON OF THE STARS & 12. RONALD R
S2-6 King George V Stakes (Handicap)
The King George V Stakes marks the end of Thursday’s racing at the royal meeting, and is the second highly competitive big-field handicap of the day for 3YOs. This race has previously been won by top quality horses that have progressed to win races beyond the 2,400m mark, including the likes of BROWN PANTHER and DANDINO, with the latter racing in the G1 Hong Kong Vase further in his racing career.
Trainer Mark Johnston has already won the race five times, and this year saddles leading fancy SOFIA’S ROCK, who should be vying for race favouritism and could quite easily add to Johnston’s tally. With two victories coming from four races this season, SOFIA’S ROCK is experienced and shall be race-fit; spectators can expect a bold run for their money with the horse racing from the front in typical Mark Johnston fashion. Champion jockey Jim Crowley is booked for the ride and this horse has to be a leading fancy.
A second selection for the race is ATTY PERSSE, who may lack racing experience with only three career starts to date, but the colt does have class and this has been reflected by him starting as favourite in each of his races. Whilst ATTY PERSSE won well on his first two starts, he failed to get home last time at Haydock which must be a concern with the horse’s confidence potentially being dented, although the firm ground could have been to blame on that occasion. He also has claimer Kieran Shoemark on board, who takes some valuable weight out of the saddle.
TARTINI made a winning start to his career on his sole run last season at Nottingham, but that was over 1,668m and stamina over this trip has to be a concern. Excuses can be made though, as he pulled quite hard in both of his last two starts, and John Gosden obviously thinks a lot of the horse to continue to run him in decent handicaps like this.
Two wins and a second is a decent record for DROCHAID, who goes into the race in fine form for Andrew Balding. He’s another that needs to settle to be in with a chance and Oisin Murphy, who has partnered him on his last five starts, will look to get a nice tow into the race.
The Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien partnership is always best feared, and HOMESMAN is their fancy in this race. With four runs under his belt already this season, and coming to Ascot fresh off the back of a G3 victory at the Curragh, the signs look good. HOMESMAN has his quirks, but blinkers fitted last time out revitalised the horse and he finished off his last race going away nicely, indicating that a step up in distance in this race could provide the ideal platform for Ryan Moore to land the spoils.
One more worth a mention is MASTER SINGER, another trained by John Gosden. The colt only lost his maiden tag last month, yet he lined up as a red-hot favourite and the 16-length winning margin that day impressed connections enough to warrant an entry at Royal Ascot. Supporters of MASTER SINGER should take caution to the fact that the horse has never finished in the top two other than when running on tapeta, and it is a huge ask to step up in class at Royal Ascot from winning an uncompetitive maiden at Newcastle.
SELECTIONS: 2. SOFIA'S ROCK, 12. ATTY PERSSE, 7. TARTINI, 11. DROCHAID & 1. HOMESMAN
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