 Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda |
|
|---|---|
| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Arima Kinen Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 3yo and up allowance
Although it is the race on dirt, the starting gate is set on turf course and the runners need to run on turf for nearly 100m from the break. It is the tendency that front runners have an advantage in the races at 1,200m dirt course at Nakayama.
My first selection is ONLY TOMORROW. The half-sister to the 2009 Japanese Derby winner LOGI UNIVERSE and the lightly-raced type of filly won the maiden over 1,600m at Tokyo last October and finished below par in the subsequent three starts. The DEEP IMPACT-sired filly has been shifted to dirt last time but she showed burst of speed in the stretch when she placed third by 0.1 second. She has lots of hopes as her second race up.
The second pick is IZA. The 4YO son of PYRO has had only one win in 12 starts. He usually shows poor performance in the first race up from the vacation, so the latest tenth at Niigata in October should not be focused on. He breezed well, in tandem with his stablemate, in his final gallop on 20th December. He can lead or sits handy.
The third pick is CHAMPAGNE SABER, a 5YO mare by KINSHASA NO KISEKI. She has been winless for three years, but has run well at Nakayama. As the pace has been expected to be fast, her closing speed should be suitable. Being trapped with kick-backs is not her issue. She settles back and standby for her late run.
DANON EAGLE is another pick. The big and a powerful horse is a typical type of sprinter with short strides. The first victory for the 3YO colt by DAIWA MAJOR finally came to the novice race over 1,200m at Nakayama in September. He has moved up in the class over 1,300m dirt at Tokyo in October, however he was bumped by the other horse and lost his concentration last time. He is a versatile type of colt.
The last pick is JET CORSA. A 5YO horse by STORMING HOME has had two wins from 25 career starts. He has not tasted win for over two years, however he can handle both turf and dirt and won at the level. He races back and has a potent turn of foot. The only issue will be starting gate as he sometimes starts slowly. He does not have any ground concern.
SELECTIONS: 15. ONLY TOMORROW, 6. IZA, 12. CHAMPAGNE SABER, 4. DANON EAGLE & 8. JET CORSA
S1-2 Christmas Rose Stakes
When you study the result of last five runnings of the Christmas Rose Stakes, you should find the favorite failed to win all five years in row and this is quite tricky race. Since three of beaten favourites had run Graded Stakes in previous start, we should not put confidence on Graded Stakes performers. And as like many other races at Nakayama, the horses who could track the leaders from closer position ran far better than closers who came behind.
My first choice is ICEFJORD, who won a maiden at Tokyo on 4th November by three lengths. It was his fifth carrier start and it seems he understands what his job at racecourse is after taking time to adopt with racing. While the distance of previous two races were 1,800m, the distance of race he won was 1,400m, which looks much suitable for the colt by CRYSTWINING, and I have feeling that 1,200m, the distance of Christmas Rose Stakes, could be his best trip. Although the competition here is tougher than the previous starts, I believe he is good enough to compete in this class.
I reckon RYUNO YUKINA’s performance in a 2yo Open race, taken place at the same course and same distance as Christmas Rose Stakes in September, should be regarded highly. The colt by VERMILION was beaten fifth there, however, the margin from the winner was only two lengths, despite he failed to break quickly. And he finished second at Fukushima last time out, which is also good effort, and it is encouraging that Hiroyuki Uchida is booked for him, is my second choice.
TAISEI PRIDE was disappointing eighth in the G2 Keio Hai Nisai Stakes on 4th November at Tokyo. However, it was the first start for the colt by JOHANNESBURG since 5th August and I think he might need the race to gain his 100% fitness. And it is encouraging that Mirco Demuro, who could ride PEISHA LUAS, selects TAISEI PRIDE as his mount in the Christmas Rose Stakes. He is my third choice.
I understand we should not ignore PEISHA LUAS, even though Demuro did not select to ride him. The replacement is Yuga Kawada, who is in good form and won the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity last Sunday. The previous start of PEISHA LUAS was a G3 company over 1,400m, which was a bit too long for him, and he was beaten sixth there. I believe 1,200m is more suitable for the colt by STRONG RETURN, is my fourth choice.
And my fifth choice is RINSHANKAIHO, who finished second to PEISHA LUAS in the 2yo Open race on 30th September. Though this is first start for the colt by ADMIRE MOON since then, he has been trained well at Miho Training Center and I am sure he is ready to run.
SELECTIONS: 3. ICEFJORD, 2. RYUNO YUKINA, 12. TAISEI PRIDE, 1. PEISHA LUAS & 9. RINSHANKAIHO
S1-3 Goodluck Handicap
Goodluck Handicap runs over 2,500m turf, the same distance at the course as the G1 Arima Kinen. With only 192m from the start to the first turn, the horses in front will have some advantages. Staying power is a must for runners.
STAY BRAVISSIMO is my first pick. Ridden by Christophe Lemaire who has scored 194 JRA wins at the moment this term, the 4YO son of STAY GOLD has missed on board only once from 18 starts. Took his third win in an allowance race over 2,600m at Fukushima in July, he has run well third in two recent starts over 2,400m and 2,600m respectively. He can handle all goings and should be in peak condition at the third race up in the autumn campaign.
The second pick is WIN VOLARE, another 4YO son of STAY GOLD. He finished below par eighth in the seasonal debut over 2,200m at Nakayama in January, but has hit the board in the following seven starts this term including runner-up in the three recent starts. Carrying 126lbs in Sunday’s race will not be his concern. His best tactics is racing close to speed or better than midfield, and if he runs his race, he has lots of chance to win.
ICHI DAI is my third pick. With two wins and three seconds from eight starts at Nakayama, the 4YO colt by SYMBOLI KRIS S should suit the track. He placed runner-up over the 2,500m at Nakayama early this month latest. Trainer Takashi Tsukazaki has convinced his condition and said, “The race has been his target and all has gone well so far. He is in perfect condition now.” High pace is his important factor. He is a hold-up runner.
PHASE VELOCITY is the other pick. The typical type of closer has stretched out the distance to 2,400m last time in which he changed the strategy and raced closed to speed and finished only a neck behind the winner. The third dam is the 1997 JRA’s Horse of the Year AIR GROOVE, and she must have lots of potential.
The last pick is SUBLIME KAISER. The 5YO son of KING KAMEHAMEHA has won three times from 26 career starts but has not tasted success since last April when he won over 2,500m at Nakayama. He usually shows better performance in his second race up from the vacation, and this is his second start up after returning from sideline. He has been working very well. He usually settles close to speed or can lead.
SELECTIONS: 14. STAY BRAVISSIMO, 10. WIN VOLARE, 4. ICHI DAI, 2. PHASE VELOCITY & 12. SUBLIME KAISER
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 14. STAY BRAVISSIMO
Selections – 10. WIN VOLARE, 4. ICHI DAI, 2. PHASE VELOCITY & 12. SUBLIME KAISER
S1-4: Banker – 6. MORGIANA
Selections – 3. HIKARI BRANDY, 9. PAI MEIMEI, 1. MEISHO TSUREZURE & 5. YASASHISA
S1-4 2017 Farewell Stakes
The distance of the Farewell Stakes was shortened from 1,800m to 1,200m last year, and the Chuto Stakes was organized under the current condition of Farewell Stakes, the race for horses belonging to the class just below Listed company at 1,200m dirt course at Nakayama in December, from 2012 to 2015.
When I studied the result of the Farewell Stakes in 2016 and the Chuto Stakes from 2012 to 2015, I found the closers, who were still eighth to twelfth position at top of homestretch, managed to make a lot of ground and came second every five years. Therefore, we need to pay attention on the closers when we try to select horses to bet in the Farewell Stakes. And, as like the G1 Arima Kinen, this is the race at the real end of long season and we need to avoid the horses who had run too many races recently. It is preferable to select horses who had more than three weeks gap from last time out.
My first choice is MORGIANA, who has very strong and sharp late kick. She finished third in the allowance race, the race of the same class as Farewell Stakes at 1,200m dirt at Kyoto on 15th October, and I reckon it was very good effort, because she failed to break quickly there. She has run at Nakayama for six times so far, won four of them and finished third twice. It is obvious that Nakayama is MORGIANA’s favourite track. And she has run only three races this year and a lot of gas should be left in her tank.
HIKARI BRANDY was unlucky loser in previous two starts, the allowance race on 9th December and 22nd October respectively, in both of which he had traffic problem on homestretch. Both are races of the same class as Farewell Stakes, and his performance in two previous races show that HIKARI BRANDY is good enough to win stakes race of this class, provided he has clear run.
If PAI MEIMEI is able to re-produce her form of last start, where she finished second and came ahead of HIKARI BRANDY, on Sunday, I believe she has chance to hit the board.
MEISHO TSUREZURE finished fifth in allowance race, with same class as Farewell Stakes at Kyoto on 19th November, and I think it was not bad effort, as it was the first start for the 8YO mare since 18th February. She must be much fitter on Sunday than the last start and MEISHO TSUREZURE is my fourth choice.
YASASHISA is the winner of allowance race of lower class last time out and this is first time for the 3YO filly to compete in this class. Though it is obvious that the competition here is tougher than last start, she is improving and I think she is good enough to finish in first five here.
SELECTIONS: 6. MORGIANA, 3. HIKARI BRANDY, 9. PAI MEIMEI, 1. MEISHO TSUREZURE & 5. YASASHISA
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 6. MORGIANA, 3. HIKARI BRANDY & 9. PAI MEIMEI
S1-5: Multiple – 13. MIKKI QUEEN, 14. SUAVE RICHARD & 10. CHEVAL GRAND
S1-6: Multiple – 13. DAIMEI FUJI, 4. FUJINO PANTHER & 12. WORLD FOR LOVE
S1-5 Arima Kinen
I understand there are two important factors to consider when we try to forecast who is going to win the G1 Arima Kinen, year-end championship race in Japan on 24th December at Nakayama.
It is the first one that this is the race scheduled at real end of long season and some of runners could have been squeezed after having some tough races, such as the G1 Tenno Sho and the G1 Japan Cup. This is obviously one of reasons why Arima Kinen has created some big upsets in its history, and we need to pay attention on fresh horses, even if their rating is inferior to others.
And the second important factor is the suitability to Nakayama Racecourse. It is clock-wise track, which is opposite to Tokyo Racecourse, and the length of homestretch is 310m, which is 216m shorter than Tokyo Racecourse, which has 526m long homestretch. It is theory at Nakayama that the horses who can take closer position to front runner have advantage.
My first choice is MIKKI QUEEN, winner of two G1s including the Japanese Oaks, trained by Yasutoshi Ikee, current leader of 2017 trainers’ table. She is fresh horse as the mare by DEEP IMPACT had four and half months break between the G1 Takarazuka Kinen on 25th June, where she finished third, and the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup on 12th November, where she finished third as well, which I believe is very good effort as the first start in autumn campaign. And she ran well in the Arima Kinen twelve months ago, finishing two lengths behind the winner, SATONO DIAMOND. Her dam MUSICAL WAY was late bloomer, who won two Graded Stakes and placed in two Graded Stakes when she was 5YO. MIKKI QUEEN is now five and I am sure she is still keeping her top form.
Another fresh horse in the field of Arima Kinen is SUAVE RICHARD, who was runner-up to REY DE ORO in the G1 Japanese Derby on 28th May. The colt by HEART’S CRY had series of minor training setback and missed the G1 Kikuka Sho, final leg of Triple Crown on 22nd October. SUAVE RICHARD reappeared at racecourse on 5th November when he won the G2 Copa Republica Argentina at Tokyo, beating older horses. It is said the quality of current 3YO crop in Japan is the highest in recent years and he is one of 3YOs who demonstrates the view.
The performance of CHEVAL GRAND in the G1 Japan Cup was very impressive and he should be relatively fresh, as he did not run the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn. And it is encouraging to have Hugh Bowman, who is recently awarded as Longines World’s Best Jockey, on the saddle again. On the other hand, the 5YO horse by HEART’S CRY failed to hit the board in the Arima Kinen in 2016 and I am slightly worried about his suitability to the course at Nakayama.
SAKURA EMPEREUR, winner of the G2 Sapporo Kinen in August and finished second to NEOREALISM in the G2 Nakayama Kinen in February, has run at Nakayama five times so far. He won three of them, finished second and third once respectively. This record shows the 6YO horse by KING KAMEHAMEHA loves Nakayama.
The Arima Kinen is swan song for mighty KITASAN BLACK and, as like many racing fans, I want to expect beautiful and emotional finale of his racing career. However, I am afraid the gas is running out and his tank may be nearly empty now.
SELECTIONS: 13. MIKKI QUEEN, 14. SUAVE RICHARD, 10. CHEVAL GRAND, 9. SAKURA EMPEREUR & 2. KITASAN BLACK
S1-6 Christmas Cup
The Christmas Cup is run over 1,200m turf course at Nakayama. It is downhill from the starts, and the outer course leads into a curve out of backstretch before the final sharper turn. As the turf condition remains firm, the pace is likely to be fast.
The first pick is DAIMEI FUJI. The 3YO colt by AGNES DIGITAL is a very consistent type of horse and has hit the board in all starts but sixth-place in the allowance race over 1,400m at Chukyo two starts back. With two wins from 10 career starts, the Naoyuki Morita’s trainee returned from four-month spell and won the allowance race over 1,400m at Chukyo early this month. He has moved up in class this time and already placed second at the level in April this term, when he showed his proven potential. Ryan Moore has been booked on board.
FUJINO PANTHER is another high-class performer among the runners. With six wins from 31 career starts, the 4YO son of BEHKABAD has transferred from National Association of Racing to Japan Racing Association last autumn, and he took two wins and three seconds from 14 career starts in JRA. He has not tasted success in the allowance race over 1,200m at Kyoto in May, but was sound in defeat when he placed fifth in the allowance race over 1,200m at Hanshin early this month.
The 3YO DEEP IMPACT-sired filly, WORLD FOR LOVE did not finish well when seventh in the allowance race over 1,600m at Kyoto in May two starts back, however after seven-month off, she displayed strong stretch run like her father and took her second win over 1,200m at Chukyo early this month. The 1,200m should suit her. If she will not lose her appetite when she travels from Ritto Training Centre to Nakayama racecourse, she must compete well against the runners.
Sired by DAIWA MAJOR, the 4YO gelding NEVER REGRET sometimes has a temperament issue, however he led the field and made all the distance at the course two starts back. After long travel to Kyoto racecourse from his home based at Miho Training Centre, he has not run his race and placed disappointing fourteenth in the allowance race over 1,200m in November latest. He usually settles midfield or deeper but can lead.
Another crop by DAIWA MAJOR, BLACK BIRD with two wins from 25 career starts took his second win in the allowance race over 1,200m at Fukushima success this summer, had good effort fourth in recent two starts. No ground issue. He is a very good speed type of horse and can lead. The short-turn course at Nakayama should be his advantage. Unless he is trapped, he has a big chance.
SELECTIONS: 13. DAIMEI FUJI, 4. FUJINO PANTHER, 12. WORLD FOR LOVE, 7. NEVER REGRET & 11. BLACK BIRD
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
