 Expert - Jack Milner |
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| Veteran journalist Jack Milner has been involved in horseracing since 1972. From then on he followed the sport closely so in 2006 when he was offered the position with Phumelela Gaming & Leisure as Managing Editor of their Publishing Department, he jumped at the chance. He is also instrumental in sending tips and previews to international customers who subscribe to South African racing. Milner is known to be an astute studier of form who reads a race very well. He is one of the leading tipsters in the country where he has a big following. He has attended international events such as the English Derby and Oaks, Royal Ascot and the Melbourne Cup. | |
Expert Column for The Met Day (S1) (Jack Milner)
S1-1 CTS 1600
This race is only open to horses bought at various Cape Thoroughbred Sales in 2016 and as a result one has a mixed bag of talent. The race is run at set weights which gives certain horses an advantage.
COT CAMPBELL is the highest rated horse and looks the runner they all have to beat. He is a beautifully bred colt who is highly regarded by trainer Justin Snaith but has yet to meet to those expectations. His best effort came in the G1 Cape Guineas over this course and distance last time when he ran on strongly to finish a 1.85-length fourth behind TAP O’ NOTH. He gives the impression he would be better suited to 1,800m but he does take a huge drop in class in this field and has a top jockey up in Bernard Fayd’Herbe. He also jumps from a good draw which is important over this course and distance.
FLYING FREE has been running well in good company in Johannesburg but had some bad luck with wide draws in the feature races. He ran on well in the G2 Dingaans to finish fourth, beaten just 1.4 lengths by the winner.
VACQUERO finished just in front of FLYING FREE and suffered interference at a vital stage of the race which both his trainer and jockey agree may have cost him the race. Unfortunately VACQUERO has not raced since then and could be in need of an outing.
ANCESTRY was one of the leading juveniles last season but he has not trained on that well. If he does regain form Joey Ramsden’s charge is a big runner, especially with Piere Strydom up.
At one point Sean Tarry rated AURELIA COTTA one of the best 3YO fillies in his yard. She did not start her 3YO season well but is coming back to form. Ran very well against the colts last time but is badly drawn.
SELECTIONS: 1. COT CAMPBELL, 3. FLYING FREE, 7. VACQUERO, 6. ANCESTRY & 10. AURELIA COTTA
S1-2 Cape Flying Championship
Trainer Mike de Kock has a strong hand in this race with two very talented 3YOs. NAAFER and ALFOLK are both progeny of leading Australian sire LONHRO and are both turning into top sprinters. Although NAAFER has not raced over 1,000m he showed a lot of pace when a 1.1-length second behind the winner in the G2 company over 1,160m at Turffontein. He will be ridden by Champion Jockey Anthony Delpech.
ALFOLK has run six times over 1,000m for three wins an three seconds. He won the G3 Lebelo Sprint last time but could be held by GRADUATION DAY on their run in the Listed company.
SERGEANT HARDY is very fast and the 4YO gelding is unbeaten over the course and distance. He has a great rapport with jockey Bernard Fayd’Herbe who has ridden him five times for three wins and two places. He will be in the firing line with 200m to run and is a massive contender.
TRIP TO HEAVEN is one of the top sprinters in the country but he tends to concede ground at the start which is probably why he has yet to win over 1,000m. He was very slow out the stalls last year and had a lot of traffic to negotiate when finishing second, beaten 0.3 lengths by stablemate CARRY ON ALICE. He is very talented and well weighted but has not won a race in over a year.
GRADUATION DAY has loads of ability but is very unsound. This 7YO gelding has only raced 11 times for six wins and two places. He is probably better over 1,200m but they will be trying him in blinkers for the first time.
SELECTIONS: 16. NAAFER, 17. ALFOLK, 3. SERGEANT HARDY, 1. TRIP TO HEAVEN & 10. GRADUATION DAY
S1-3 Cape Derby
Mike de Kock-trained LIKE A PANTHER has been earmarked for this race. He was another who flew up late in the G1 Cape Guineas and finished a 1.75-length third. He has won over the distance, has Anton Marcus up and is undoubtedly one for the shortlist. He is not all that well drawn at barrier 11 but it is not all that serious over 2,000m as here is an 800m back straight before you reach the turn.
EYES WIDE OPEN won the G1 Premiers Champion Stakes as a juvenile but had a few injuries later on. However, he bounced back to form with a very impressive win in the G2 company this year and that has made him the best handicapped colt in the race.
TAP O' NOTH is attempting to become he first horse since ELI’S TRUTH in 1992 to pull off the G1 Cape Guineas and G1 Cape Derby double. He has raced five times for four wins and a close-up third and with a good draw he is likely to go off favourite for this race. There is a question mark over his ability to stay 2,000m but is a massive contender if he does.
WHITE RIVER flew up from the back of the field to run second in both the G2 Selangor Cup and G1 Cape Guineas to finish a 0.5-length second in both. He has been crying out for the extra 400m and should be in the mix.
PACK LEADER is the stable companion to EYES WIDE OPEN and has been putting up some excellent work at home. Anthony Delpech takes the ride and trainer Glen Kotzen believes he is the main danger to the stable elect.
SELECTIONS: 4. LIKE A PANTHER, 1. EYES WIDE OPEN, 2. TAP O' NOTH, 3. WHITE RIVER & 5. PACK LEADER
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 4. LIKE A PANTHER
Selections – 1. EYES WIDE OPEN, 2. TAP O' NOTH, 3. WHITE RIVER & 5. PACK LEADER
S1-4: Banker – 12. SNOWDANCE
Selections – 1. JUST SENSUAL, 14. ROCKIN RUSSIAN, 2. GIMME SIX & 6. PREMIER DANCE
S1-4 Majorca Stakes
This race is all about the new South African sensation, 3YO filly SNOWDANCE. She won both the G2 Western Cape Fillies Championship and the G1 Cape Fillies Guineas in spectacular style, beating OH SUSANNA by 3.25 lengths in the Guineas. The runner-up came out to win the G1 Paddock Stakes by 1.5 lengths, beating many of the runners in this race. SNOWDANCE is likely to start the shortest priced favourite on the day. She won the G2 Western Cape Fillies Championship over 1,400m from a wide draw, tearing off to the front and keeping her massive lead all the way to the line. She was well drawn in the G1 Cape Fillies Guineas but took the lead early in the straight and kicked clear of her rivals once in the straight.
4YO JUST SENSUAL has been restricted to sprints since she came back from five-month layoff but she did win the 2016 G1 Cape Fillies Guineas so the distance is of no concern. She should be in the pink of condition and a good run is expected, especially with Anton Marcus in the irons.
ROCKIN RUSSIAN was a top juvenile who finished second in G1 and G2 feature during the winter. Has been inconsistent since but was well beaten by SNOWDANCE in the G1 Cape Fillies Guineas although she did have the widest of draws. If in the mood she could run into the places.
Winner of the G2 KZN Fillies Guineas at Greyville last year, GIMME SIX is close on form with JUST SENSUAL. She ran poorly in the G1 Paddock Stakes last time but did not recover after suffering interference at the 700m and finished down the field. Ignore that run.
PREMIER DANCE has been a consistent runner in weaker company and did finish second behind STAR EXPRESS in the G3 company but that form has not held up.
SELECTIONS: 12. SNOWDANCE, 1. JUST SENSUAL, 14. ROCKIN RUSSIAN, 2. GIMME SIX & 6. PREMIER DANCE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 12. SNOWDANCE, 1. JUST SENSUAL & 14. ROCKIN RUSSIAN
S1-5: Multiple – 3. MARINARESCO, 1. LEGAL EAGLE & 2. CAPTAIN AMERICA
S1-6: Multiple – 6. LET IT RAIN, 11. FORTISSIMA & 4. MASTER'S EYE
S1-5 The Met
When G1 The Met was changed to a pure weight for age event most people thought it would be easier to find the winner but when the fancied runners all drew wide the picture changed.
One still has to go with the best handicapped runners and the top three are LEGAL EAGLE, CAPTAIN AMERICA and MARINARESCO. LEGAL EAGLE is drawn wide and has stamina doubts, CAPTAIN AMERICA has stamina doubts but is well drawn while MARINARESCO is drawn wide but will definitely see out the distance. Winner of last year’s G1 Durban July this 5YO has a top trainer in Mrs Candice Bass-Robinson. He ran on strongly in the G1 Queen’s Plate over 1,600m last time and as he likes to come from off the pace jockey Aldo Domeyer will drop him out from the wide draw and let him make up the ground in the straight. He has an excellent winning chance.
LEGAL EAGLE is rated the best horse in the country and is handicapped to win this race. Barrier 15 will leave jockey Anton Marcus with a quandary as to whether he should drop him out or push him up wide in an attempt to overcome the draw. Nevertheless, he is the horse to beat.
7YO CAPTAIN AMERICA finished third in this race last year and in 2016. He is well handicapped, well drawn at barrier 3 and comes from a top stable. He has yet to win over further than 1,600m but he is an honest performer who always give of his best. That makes him an excellent place bet.
LAST WINTER is lightly raced and has won four of his five starts. He was just touched off in the G2 company over 1,800m. Highly rated by trainer Dean Kannemeyer but drew barrier 20 and will need all the skill of Piere Strydom to win.
Very few 3YOs have contested this race in the past but overall they have done well. OH SUSANNA seems to be the first 3YO filly to run in the event and is a beautifully bred daughter of STREET CRY. She is improving and comes in with a light weight. Could be there unless inexperience gets to her.
SELECTIONS: 3. MARINARESCO, 1. LEGAL EAGLE, 2. CAPTAIN AMERICA, 12. LAST WINTER & 20. OH SUSANNA
S1-6 Western Cape Stayers
This stayers’ race is always highly competitive but the best pointer to the form is the G3 Chairman’s Cup over 3,200m. The two runs that stand out in the race were those of second-placed MASTER'S EYE and fourth-place LET IT RAIN.
LET IT RAIN was only 2.85 lengths off the winner in what was his first start at Kenilworth and will improve on that run. He has contested a number of stayers’ races in both Johannesburg and Durban and has run well in both centres.
MASTER'S EYE, who carried 3lbs lower than LET IT RAIN, ran second and could have been an unlucky loser. The 6YO gelding is a genuine stayer and was very unlucky to get beaten last time as he raced wide around the turn and still looked a winner with 200m to run but was run out of it close home by the winner.
FORTISSIMA also deserves loads of respect. She’s a top-class mare who has outstayed the boys on a number of occasions. She is nicely handicapped and will be ridden by champion jockey Anthony Delpech. However, this will be her first run at Kenilworth and on a left-handed track.
MR WINSOME is well regarded by trainer Dean Kannemeyer but after winning a few races in Durban during the winter his merit rating was too high for him to get into stayers’ races without carrying a massive weight. Kannemeyer feels the conditions of this race will suit him better.
Highly regarded by his trainer, 4YO gelding OLLIVANDER has often flattered to deceive, letting his supporters down. He has a top jockey in Aldo Domeyer but needs to improve in order to feature. He has placed over 2,400m and could now be looking for this sort of distance.
SELECTIONS: 6. LET IT RAIN, 11. FORTISSIMA, 4. MASTER'S EYE, 3. MR WINSOME & 9. OLLIVANDER
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