 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Dubai Thursday (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Meydan Sprint
Trainer Charlie Appleby is in fine form at the moment and in BLUE POINT he looks to have a worthy favourite here in this G2 contest over 1,000m. The son of SHAMARDAL, who is making his debut at Meydan, was last seen winning a G3 over 1,200m at Ascot in October. Before that he had enjoyed a fruitful campaign, including a close third to G1 winners CARAVAGGIO and HARRY ANGEL in the 1,200m G1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. He comes into this race with the strongest form on offer so should prove hard to beat if anywhere near his best. The only slight concern could be the drop back to 1,000m, but he is a speedy animal and certainly has the class to take this.
His nearest challenger could well be course specialist ERTIJAAL, who is looking to follow up a handicap win. That was his seventh win at the course where he was giving the runner-up HIT THE BID plenty of weight. That was his first run after a long layoff, so he will be expected to be fitter here and he looks to be BLUE POINT’s main challenger. He is officially rated higher than BLUE POINT, but at the age of seven he isn’t getting any younger and looks to be vulnerable to the younger horse. BLUE POINT could very well still be improving and he is facing inferior opposition here to what he faced last year.
HIT THE BID finished behind ERTIJAAL two starts ago, but produced a career best performance last time when taking a handicap over course and distance. He looks to be improving with every run and should make the frame, but it is going to be difficult for him against the likes of BLUE POINT and ERTIJAAL off level weights. On all known form, he is well up against it and both BLUE POINT and ERTIJAAL should prove far superior.
FITYAAN, who is making his first start for new trainer Maria Ritchie, is back from a lengthy lay-off. He is by far the oldest horse in the line-up at the grand age of 10 and would need a career best performance to get involved.
OUT DO has been on the go since October. He has run creditably all season without managing to get his nose in front.
SIR MAXIMILIAN is another who has had plenty of runs so far this season. He has been very inconsistent and while his run last time was more encouraging, both BLUE POINT and ERTIJAAL look to be streets ahead of him.
SELECTIONS: 2. BLUE POINT, 4. ERTIJAAL, 6. HIT THE BID & 3. OUT DO
S1-2 Benchmark 89 Handicap
French jockey Mickael Barzalona has already equalled his highest tally of winners (10) for a season in Dubai and he looks to have another good chance with PIRATE’S COVE in this 1,400m handicap. Barzalona has been on board for both of the 5YO’s wins, one in France and the other over 1,200m on the dirt this season, and the pair look to have a good chance of making it a hat-trick here. His latest win two starts back was very impressive, scoring by seven-and-a-half lengths with plenty of useful horses left toiling behind. Though he failed to follow that up when unplaced last time out, he had to use plenty of energy to get across from his wide draw to lead early on and that cost him in. The wide draw could be the problem again here but if Barzalona can get him settled early on then he has the speed to get involved in the closing stages.
SECRET AMBITION has no less than five wins under his belt in Dubai, with all of those coming on the dirt too. That alone makes him a fair contender for this prize, though he will have to give weight away to all bar two of his 11 rivals as a result. From an inside draw he may look to grab an easy lead and, having won over 1,600m, use his stamina to full effect and make sure this is run at a good pace. Others lurking lower in the handicap may pounce late, but it would be no surprise to see him battling on and filling the places.
SPEEDY MOVE has won just once in 10 starts since moving to Satish Seemar but has showed a fair amount of promise. He’s yet to win this season but has finished fourth in two competitive handicaps and could go close here. Those two races are some of the strongest form on offer and it may not be too long before he gets his nose in front off his current mark. Pat Cosgrave is on fire with five winners in the last 14 days and is another positive.
From a good inside draw in handicap on dirt over 1,900m, the Doug Watson-trained GALVANIZE put in a bold front-running display and ended up second to stablemate STREET OF DREAMS last time out. Though the form of that race looks fairly strong, with STREET OF DREAMS having won or placed in all four of his starts on the dirt, he carries top-weight here and the step back in trip is a slight concern.
TAFAAKHOR looks to be on an attractive handicap mark based on his best form in the UK and has put in some solid runs over 1,400m and 1,600m this season. The negative is that he finished down the field on his only dirt start to date and would have to turn that piece of form on its head to get involved.
NATHR is a three-time winner on the dirt at Meydan so has solid form in the book. Though his last win was over a year ago now and all three successes have come over 1,600m or further, so this trip may be on the sharp side.
On his Meydan debut, MUSAWAAT is an exciting runner and could get his winter in Dubai off to a flyer. He won over 1,400m two starts back at Newmarket and will be ridden by the in-form Adrie de Vries. The surface is an unknown, though, and he is best watched at this stage.
SELECTIONS: 8. SPEEDY MOVE, 2. PIRATE’S COVE, 1. GALVANIZE, 3. SECRET AMBITION & 11. TAFAAKHOR
S1-3 95+ Handicap
A field of eight go to post for this 95+ Handicap run over 1,400m, with KIMBEAR looking the most likely victor for trainer Doug Watson. KIMBEAR chased home BOYNTON over 1,600m last time out and was beaten less than three lengths by the 4YO who enjoyed G2 success at Newmarket back in 2016. It would be no surprise to see him come on for that run once again and get the better of his rivals to land the prize for a trainer who always warrants respect.
RAVEN’S CORNER should once again put in a gallant effort as he looks to continue his impressive record of making the frame. The 5YO has only finished outside the top three on one of his previous seven appearances, with four of five coming at Meydan. He notched up a double on the dirt back in 2017 when notching handicap contests on the dirt within the space of a month. And he was far from embarrassed in G3 and better handicap company over the past two months, finishing sixth and third respectively.
SPITZBERGEN will need to put a disappointing run last time out firmly behind him when he makes just his second appearance at Meydan following a 20+ length defeat behind KIMBEAR. The booking of William Buick is a positive and trainer Niels Petersen is clearly seeing enough at home to think he can recapture his Swedish form, which includes two Conditions wins.
It’s likely to prove too tough for SHAISHEE, who finished mid-division in a Conditions race last time out, unless he can recapture his 2017 form. He finished a good third at Meydan 12 months ago when beaten by the useful COMICAS and DUNDONNELL in a tougher contest. However, he has finished no better than fourth in his previous four attempts and can be left out for win purposes after 95 days off.
ADVENTUROUS, who made a disappointing Meydan debut a month ago when finishing a distant last, is another who looks up against it. That was the first time the 5YO had been spotted on the race track for almost two years though, and should at least come on for the run.
NOBELIUM was no match for his rivals in Saturday’s G3 contest run here, but trainer Rashed Boursely has him entered here just days later. He was always in the rear as HEAVY METAL cruised to victory by almost 10 lengths, with NOBELIUM a further 40+ lengths behind. Connor Beasley is reunited with the horse for the first time since 25th January, but once again he finished tailed off last in a handicap and can be ignored.
The 6YO PORTAMENTO has run with respect on each of his previous two appearances, including a fifth in G3 company at Jebel Ali. He then followed that up with a third-place finish in a handicap at Meydan at the beginning of the. Beaten less than two lengths that day, he has stronger credits than most of these and could sneak into the places.
While SILVER LOOK, who has finished 6th, 5th, 14th, 5th and 9th in his previous five appearances, looks up against it.
SELECTIONS: 1. KIMBEAR, 3. RAVEN’S CORNER, 6. PORTAMENTO, 2. SPITZBERGEN & 4. ADVENTUROUS
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 1. KIMBEAR
Selections – 3. RAVEN’S CORNER, 6. PORTAMENTO, 2. SPITZBERGEN & 4. ADVENTUROUS S1-4: Banker – 3. LESHLAA
S1-4: Banker – 3. LESHLAA
Selections – 1. FOLKSWOOD, 6. EARNSHAW, 8. SPECIAL FIGHTER & 10. LIGHT THE LIGHTS
S1-4 Dubai Millennium Stakes
Saeed bin Suroor watched LESHLAA rout the opposition in a Meydan handicap earlier this month and will be hoping he has the class to step up and take the 2,000m G3 Dubai Millennium Stakes. The 4YO got the better of the useful BLAIR HOUSE, settling in midfield before powering away in the home straight to win by almost five lengths. BLAIR HOUSE had gone off a short price favourite for that race having finished three-lengths clear of LESHLAA when second over course and distance back in January, but he was no match.
EARNSHAW finished a well-beaten sixth in the same race and will have to improve if he is to go one better for trainer Salem bin Ghadayer on his fourth appearance of 2018. The 7YO finished second in this contest 12 months ago, going down by less than two lengths at the hands of French runner ZARAK. He has already placed in the 1,800m G3 Singspiel Stakes this year, finishing third behind Group-winning duo EMOTIONLESS and BENBATL under the tutelage of jockey Mickael Barzalona. The son of MEDAGLIA D’ORO will go close with a replication of that run. However, he will have to put his previous two efforts behind him, having also finished out of the places at the start of the month.
Mike de Kock’s LIGHT THE LIGHTS defeated BLAIR HOUSE in January but struggled to build on that when stepped up to Group company, finishing fourth behind BENBATL, BAY OF POETS and BRAVO ZOLO.
The Charlie Appleby-trained FOLKSWOOD landed the 1,800m handicap at Meydan 12 months ago when getting the better of ELLEVAL by two lengths. That victory was sandwiched between two solid second place-finishes in handicaps behind stablemate ARTIGIANO and DECORATED KNIGHT. He finished a disappointing fifth when favourite last season in the G1 Emirates Stakes at Flemington, but even that would be enough to see him go close at a track he clearly acts on.
Saeed bin Suroor also saddles TEAM TALK and CARRY ON DERYCK in this. The former had been off the track for a long time when finishing last on his Dubai debut last month. He was a talented 3YO, winning a 2,000m Listed race at Lingfield in the UK in November 2016, but there are now questions to answer. The latter hasn’t won in two years and has been disappointing on both starts at Meydan this season.
Maria Ritchie’s SPECIAL FIGHTER hasn’t been seen since well down the field behind the classy ARROGATE in last year’s G1 Dubai World Cup. He was always going to be up against it that day, but he has shown signs that he could go very close here, including a second-place finish behind LONG RIVER back in March. He also bagged victory in the G1 Al Maktoum Challenge R3 12 months prior to that, getting the better of the Joao Moreira-ridden and Casper Fownes-trained GUN PIT.
AL SAHEM has G1-winning form in South Africa, but was a disappointing seven of seven on his seasonal reappearance at Meydan at the start of the month.
SELECTIONS: 3. LESHLAA, 1. FOLKSWOOD, 6. EARNSHAW, 8. SPECIAL FIGHTER & 10. LIGHT THE LIGHTS
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 3. LESHLAA, 1. FOLKSWOOD & 6. EARNSHAW
S1-5: Multiple – 8. DREAM CASTLE, 4. JANOOBI & 6. BAY OF POETS
S1-6: Multiple – 3. DRAFTED, 1. ROSS & 2. CLASSIC EMPEROR
S1-5 Zabeel Mile
A number of horses look set to take each other on again in this 1,600m event having faced off over 200m shorter in a G2 earlier this month. That race was won by JUNGLE CAT with the Mike de Kock-trained JANOOBI three quarters of a length back in second. Sent off at 40/1, the son of SILVANO put up a career best performance under Jim Crowley to finish ahead of the likes of DREAM CASTLE, NOAH FROM GOA and CHAMPIONSHIP.
DREAM CASTLE is yet to reproduce the sort of form which saw him go off a single figure price in last year’s G1 2000 Guineas Stakes at Newmarket. The son of FRANKEL has run consistently in a number of Group races since then and while he is yet to get his head in front for over a year, he looks sure to go well for his in-form trainer, Saeed bin Suroor. Last time, he gave himself every chance with 400m to run but failed to pick up when needed. Connections will he hoping he can excel over an extended distance here. He boasts some of the best form on offer and if he is anywhere near his best, he should prove hard to beat.
JANOOBI and NOAH FROM GOA were involved in DREAM CASTLE’s last race and they look set to be his main challengers. JANOOBI finished just half a length ahead of DREAM CASTLE last time and he could be the one to chase him home. He is no stranger to the winners’ enclosure having won five times in his native South Africa, including three Graded races. He struggled on his first run at Meydan but a change of tactics last time seemed to rejuvenate him. He travelled well throughout the race and was unlucky to be just touched off in the closing stages. A repeat performance would certainly see him involved and a big danger to DREAM CASTLE.
Mike de Kock looks to have another contender in NOAH FROM GOA who failed to build on an encouraging seasonal reappearance last time. Connections would have hoped for another step forward having finished third under top-weight in January. He failed to fire, though, and was an ultimately disappointing fifth behind both JANOOBI and DREAM CASTLE. Arguably the best performance of his career came in this race 12 months ago and his connections will be hoping for a repeat which would give him every chance.
Charlie Appleby’s BAY OF POETS should go fairly close in this. He was a strong finishing second to BENBATL over 1,800m earlier this month and William Buick is in the saddle.
TREASURY NOTES was last seen finishing an encouraging second over course and distance after a long lay-off. He was an expensive purchase from UK so will need to show why in order to take this.
CHAMPIONSHIP is another who underperformed last time when finishing a distant eighth behind JANOOBI, DREAM CASTLE and NOAH FROM GOA. He was seeking a third consecutive win that day but ran well below par and is on a recovery mission here. He has some decent form since moving to the UAE and should be suited by stepping back up to 1,600m. However, his trainer is going through a quiet patch and he looks set to contest the minor honours.
SELECTIONS: 8. DREAM CASTLE, 4. JANOOBI, 6. BAY OF POETS, 3. NOAH FROM GOA & 2. TREASURY NOTES
S1-6 95-105 Handicap
Trainer Chris So introduces his dirt track specialist CLASSIC EMPEROR to Meydan in this 1,600m handicap as he begins his ambitious plans for a tilt at the US$1M G2 Godolphin Mile. The 6YO has won two of his last three starts on Sha Tin’s All-Weather-Track over 1,650m trip and has been found the ideal opening opportunity. Connections have made no secret of the fact that a lack of options for him at home has forced them to target Dubai and hopefully their bravery can be rewarded.
If he makes a winning start depends on whether or not Doug Watson’s fast-improving DRAFTED stays this 1,600m trip. The 4YO has been a revelation since being gelded and moving to this part of the world, having won his last two Meydan starts with relative ease. The first of those two successes came back in January over 1,200m when proving too good for SCRUTINEER and leaving his disappointing debut on the surface the previous month well behind. However, his most impressive display came earlier in the month when stepping up to 1,400m and routing a good field by 4 ¾ lengths. He had a good yardstick in YALTA behind him in second that day and that horse bolted up by 5 lengths last weekend. There is no reason to think that DRAFTED won’t handle the extra 200m and he may be a tough one for CLASSIC EMPEROR to beat.
CLAIM THE ROSES was beaten 7 lengths by DRAFTED when finishing fourth here last time, but an argument can be made to suggest he may get a little closer this time. The 7YO had previously run well over this 1,600m trip here at Meydan and may not have been suited by the drop back to 1,400m. He should finish closer to the favourite than he did last time, but it would be a big surprise if he was good enough to reverse the form even over his ideal trip.
RODAINI finished even further behind when beaten 20 lengths back in sixth that day. He too will appreciate the step back up to 1,600m but the best of his form is somewhat below what is required for a race of this nature.
The Godolphin team is represented by 8YO FOOTBRIDGE who finished fourth to HEAVY METAL here last time. He hasn’t won since May 2014 and the wait for another success is likely to go on.
ROSS has some excellent form at Meydan, including when beaten a neck in second in last year’s 1,600m G2 Godolphin Mile on Dubai World Cup Day. He was a little disappointing behind BOYNTON last time, but the Peter Schiergen-trained 6YO will be hard to keep out of the frame.
SELECTIONS: 3. DRAFTED, 1. ROSS, 2. CLASSIC EMPEROR, 8. CLAIM THE ROSES & 4. FOOTBRIDGE
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