 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for 2000 Guineas Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Palace House Stakes
The G3 Palace House Stakes run over 1,000m has produced some very talented sprinters in the past. The likes of MARSHA, PROFITABLE and SOLE POWER have taken the race in recent years and all have gone on to claim G1 honours.
Karl Burke’s HAVANA GREY looks set to go off favourite for this year’s renewal. The son of HAVANA GOLD enjoyed a fantastic 2YO campaign, finishing out of the first two just once his eight starts. Burke’s talented sprinter was twice a winner in Listed company, but arguably his best performance came in the 1,000m G3 Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood where he showed his class on ground which wouldn’t have played to his strengths. He then lost nothing in defeat when finishing a close second to the rapidly improving HEARTACHE in a G2 over the minimum distance at Doncaster on his last start. A similar performance first time out here would see him go close again.
His nearest challenger could come in the form of ALPHA DELPHINI. The 7YO has been admirably consistent for his connections and rarely runs a bad race. Unlike some of his market rivals, he has already run this season, meaning he should be spot on for this. Bryan Smart’s runner will be played late and will hope to pick them off towards the finish in a similar way to his wins at Beverley and Musselburgh last autumn. ALPHA DELPHINI comes into this race-fit and looks very hard to leave out of the equation.
ORNATE has been behind ALPHA DELPHINI on his last two starts, but he begins his 5YO campaign under a new trainer in David Griffiths. The Yorkshire handler is renowned for his training of sprinters and this son of BAHAMIAN BOUNTY is another who must come into consideration. He was well campaigned by his former handler Robert Cowell last season where he ran well in a number of races. He has a good record fresh and went well for a long way in this race last year before getting tried towards the end.
4YOs have won this race twice in succession and MABS CROSS will be looking to make it a hat-trick. Michael Dods’ filly enjoyed a progressive season in 2017, where she notched up a four-timer with the highlight being the Musselburgh Listed Fillies' Sprint Stakes over 1,001m at Musselburgh. She will be fit now having run at Bath over 1,009m last month and is another who we could easily yet to have seen the best from.
One horse that definitely won’t lack for race fitness is the Robert Cowell-trained ENCORE D’OR. He has already run five times so far this season, with his best effort coming when taking a competitive handicap on the polytrack at Lingfield in March. However, he will need a career best to feature here.
JUDICIAL has been an admiral performer for his connections. The 6YO makes his seasonal reappearance here off the back of a strong 2017 campaign when he won three times over 1,000m. Julie Camacho’s gelding is yet to taste victory in this kind of company, but his 5YO season was his best to date and he could be one who improves as he gets older. He has a decent record fresh too and could outrun his odds if he can resume the improvement he showed last year.
SELECTIONS: 9. HAVANA GREY, 1. ALPHA DELPHINI, 6. ORNATE, 8. MABS CROSS & 3. JUDICIAL
S2-2 Jockey Club Stakes
Roger Varian has never won the G2 Jockey Club Stakes, run over 2,400m, but he’s unlikely to have a better chance with DEFOE lining up on Saturday. The 4YO is expected to go off a very short price having kicked off the season in winning fashion, securing victory in the 2,400m G3 company at Newbury. That two-and-a-half-length success was his fifth win in six attempts, with the only blip a disappointing effort in the G1 2,905m St. Leger Stakes at Doncaster last September. He finished 10th of 11 that day but deserves another crack at this level and with only four other entries left in the field he shouldn’t have too much trouble landing the prize.
COUNT OCTAVE should strip fitter for his winning reappearance at Wolverhampton last month, but he will need to, having only just got the better of SAROOG that day despite going off odds-on. Both finished a huge 11 lengths clear of third place horse and although more is expected to come from this FRANKEL offspring, he’s unlikely to challenge DEFOE for win purposes.
Trainer Ed Dunlop has struggled to find many winners in the opening weeks of the season, but his RED VERDON looks the best of the rest. The 5YO was vying for a hat-trick when finishing fourth in a bunched finish at Lingfield back in March, with the top four all within a length of each other. The winner of that race, the French-trained FUNNY KID, has since won again, while third placed WATERSMEET has already won three times this year, so there could be more to come.
KHALIDI has been around the block a bit and was well and truly thrown in at the deep end when finishing a distant last of 10 in the G1 2,410m Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan in March. He had previously finished well down the field in a G3 contest at Lingfield on the polytrack and connections will be hoping he can dig out his 2017 summer form to have any chance here. After all, he was beaten just half a length by PERMIAN, who went on to perform well at G1 level, at Ascot in the G2 2,392m King Edward VII Stakes in June and that would give him a small chance.
David Elsworth’s MASTER THE WORLD made a winning start to 2018 when landing the G3 2,000m Winter Derby Stakes at Lingfield, ahead of the likes of MR OWEN and CONVEY. He followed that up with a second-placed defeat over course and distance in the polytrack company but was then well beaten in a G3 at Newmarket last month. Sean Levey takes the ride, but it will be a surprise to see him land a blow in this company.
SELECTIONS: 2. DEFOE, 1. COUNT OCTAVE, 3. KHALIDI & 5. RED VERDON
S2-3 2000 Guineas Stakes
The G1 2000 Guineas Stakes, run over 1,600m on Newmarket’s historic Rowley Mile course, is the first of five Classics in the British Flat season. Like with almost every major race in the Great Britain and Ireland, the first place to start has to be Aidan O’Brien, who registered a world record 28 G1 wins in 2017, beating Bobby Frankel’s previous record by three. He has won this race a record eight times and it would take a brave punter to bet against him winning a ninth on Saturday.
The likely favourite is GUSTAV KLIMT who was impressive when winning the 1,400m Listed 2000 Guineas Trial Stakes at Leopardstown last month, particularly as the ground was unsuitably heavy. In recent years, O’Brien has tended to send his horses straight to the Guineas, but with the distance of the trial being dropped from 1,600 to 1,400m, he’s changed his strategy this time. Prior to his reappearance, GUSTAV KLIMT hadn’t been seen since last July when he produced an astonishing performance to win the 1,400m G2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket’s July course. Despite meeting serious interference 400m out, Ryan Moore switched him around the field and he still managed to win. After that he suffered a setback which kept him off the track, but he showed last month that he is a very classy horse who will surely stay 2,000m later in the year.
One of his biggest dangers comes from his own stable. SAXON WARRIOR is unbeaten in three starts, landing the record-breaking 26th G1 win for O’Brien in the 1,600m Racing Post Trophy Stakes at Doncaster last October. He was doing all his best work at the finish that day, so the only worry is if he finds this 1,600m trip slightly too short, especially if the Newmarket ground continues to quicken up.
Undoubtedly the visually most impressive performance in a Guineas Trial was MASAR in the G3 Craven Stakes, run over the same course and distance as Saturday’s race. He shot clear of his rivals in the closing stages to win by nine lengths, although he did have fitness on his side having run at Meydan the previous month, albeit disappointingly on dirt. Charlie Appleby’s horses have made an excellent start to the season and MASAR could potentially give him his first Classic. It should be noted, though, that Craven winners haven’t had a great record in the Guineas recently. HAAFHD was the last one to do the double in 2004.
No horse is better bred in this year’s race than ELARQAM. By 2011 2000 Guineas Stakes winner FRANKEL, out of 2004 1000 Guineas winner ATTRACTION, you couldn’t ask for a horse with better credentials for this Classic. He is unbeaten in two starts as a juvenile, winning a 1,400m novice event at York in September before landing a G3 over the same distance at Newmarket in late September. This is obviously a big step up in class, but his pedigree suggests he could go to the very top and Mark Johnston brought him to Newmarket a few weeks ago for a racecourse gallop.
You have to go back to 2001 for the last time Sir Michael Stoute won the opening Classic of the season and he relies on EXPERT EYE here. He was brilliant in the 1,400m G2 Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last summer, but then a bitter disappointment in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes, also run over 1,400m at Newmarket in October. His reappearance, second behind one of today’s rivals JAMES GARFIELD at Newbury in the 1,400m G3 Greenham Stakes at Newbury a few weeks ago, was perhaps a little underwhelming. However, Stoute’s horses are often a little slow to hit top gear and he can be expected to strip fitter here.
SELECTIONS: 4. GUSTAV KLIMT, 2. ELARQAM, 7. MASAR, 13. SAXON WARRIOR & 3. EXPERT EYE
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-3: Banker – 4. GUSTAV KLIMT
Selections – 2. ELARQAM, 7. MASAR, 13. SAXON WARRIOR & 3. EXPERT EYE
S2-4: Banker – 2. CHAGATAI
Selections – 4. YAFTA, 5. TRIBAL QUEST, 8. GALLOWAY HILLS & 3. BARTON MILLS
S2-4 3yo 81-100 Handicap
The 1,200m 3yo 81-100 Handicap is a race for the 3YO speedballs. Clive Cox was the main man when it came to training up-and-coming sprinters last season and his CHAGATAI is one to be noted on his second start of the season. The son of KODIAC won well at Kempton over 1,200m on his first start after a year off the track and being gelded, showing a good turn of foot despite travelling on the front end for much of the race. Finishing last of five in a hot Listed contest at Sandown over the minimum 1,009m trip on his final start of 2017 is a slight blot on his form, but he was snatched up on the rail behind the leader that day and jockey Adam Kirby clearly didn’t want to force the then 2YO through a tight gap. The winner of that race, HAVANA GREY, is now a Group winner and contests the G3 Palace House Stakes on this card, while two of the other three horses have both come out and won again. The other, FROZEN ANGEL, is now named PATRIOTISM and is an interesting prospect for trainer David Ferraris in Hong Kong.
Reigning champion jockey Silvestre De Sousa will want to get a winner on the board on the official opening day of the Flat season and has an outside chance here with GALLOWAY HILLS. De Sousa won this race with DANIELSFLYER last year and the prospect of the Brazilian riding off light weight this time around is enough to consider him for a place. Form on Newmarket’s unique Rowley Mile course is very useful too, so his second over course and distance goes down as another positive.
YAFTA is being asked to prove himself in tougher company after easy wins at Chelmsford and Bath over 1,200m and 1,145m respectively. The grey son of DARK ANGEL looks to have the speed to be successful over today’s trip, but also a touch more stamina than his rivals, which could be the difference come the line if they go off quick. Despite this being his first start of the season, trainer Richard Hannon is having enough success with his horses first time out to ease any concerns and he has a leading chance.
BARTON MILLS and TRIBAL QUEST are the other two that make most appeal, with a preference for the latter who runs in the blue of Godolphin. After being gelded in the autumn, the Charlie Appleby-trained gelding scored on his seasonal reappearance at Kempton over today’s distance and looks certain to build on that again. Martin Harley barely had to reach for his whip that day, moving smoothly through the gears to win by a length and three quarters, and the Godolphin team would be disappointed if he wasn’t in the shake-up here.
BARTON MILLS, a son of IFFRAAJ and trained by William Haggas, has the right sort of profile for this but must improve on his seasonal return at Kempton over 1,400m to get involved. He finished a clear third in a mediocre Class 5 contest last time out but that did come after a six-month break and he also ran quite keenly throughout. The drop back in trip could help him settle and he shouldn’t be written off.
SELECTIONS: 2. CHAGATAI, 4. YAFTA, 5. TRIBAL QUEST, 8. GALLOWAY HILLS & 3. BARTON MILLS
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-4: Multiple – 2. CHAGATAI, 4. YAFTA & 5. TRIBAL QUEST
S2-5: Multiple – 8. STEPHENSONS ROCKET, 3. KEY VICTORY & 5. OLD PERSIAN
S2-6: Multiple – 1. SYMBOLIZATION, 6. SAM GOLD & 2. FOLK TALE
S2-5 Newmarket Stakes
Expect the highly-thought of STEPHENSONS ROCKET to go like a train when he lines up in the 2,000m Listed Newmarket Stakes. The Ed Walker-trained 3YO was a big price on debut back in September of last year, but his promise was clear for everybody to see as he finished a length behind favourite CROSSED BATON. He confirmed that promise a month later when securing an easy victory in a 1,599m novice contest at Redcar, winning cosily by almost four lengths with a further four-and-a-half lengths back to third. He hasn’t been seen since, but the form has been boosted by CROSSED BATON who is two from two this year, having landed races at Kempton on the all-weather and at Epsom in Listed company. STEPHENSONS ROCKET is clearly well thought of by the yard and it would be no surprise to see him take this on the way to bigger and better things, with a lack of a preparation run the only concern.
The Charlie Appleby-trained KEY VICTORY made his debut a winning one at Newmarket back in October and looks the most likely candidate to spoil Walker’s party. He has the benefit of the stable’s top jockey, William Buick, in the saddle once again and although he hasn’t been seen since, the form from his Newmarket debut has taken a major boost in the form of QAYSAR. Richard Hannon’s 3YO only finished second that day, but he has since landed a hat-trick, winning at Kempton twice before landing the spoils in a handicap at Newbury last month.
Brian Meehan’s PETRUS looks capable of battling for a share of the prize money, having won at Sandown on just his second racecourse appearance back in July last year, but he may not have enough to win it. Connections threw him in at the deep end when running in the G2 1,600m Royal Lodge Stakes and he subsequently sunk, finishing a well beaten fourth of five that day. It was a similar scenario when tested in the G3 Autumn Stakes over the same distance, but he is clearly well regarded and deserves another chance back down in grade with a top jockey Jim Crowley in the saddle.
Appleby goes into the race double-handed with James Doyle riding OLD PERSIAN for the yard and he too looks in with a shot having won on this track just over two weeks ago. That was his third win of his five-race career, with the other two outings culminating in a third-place finish on debut and a disappointing down-the-field defeat at Pontefract.
The David Simcock yard is struggling for form in the early stages of the season, but he will be hopeful of a big run from HIGHBROW following his third and first in November and December respectively. He was a well-backed favourite when winning at the second attempt at Kempton and he duly obliged, winning the race by a comfortable four-and-a-half lengths over RETURNING GLORY. However, the form of that race isn’t the strongest and he’s likely to struggle to land a blow up against some very talented and unexposed entries.
Mark Johnston is represented by LYNWOOD GOLD, another who has only finished out of the places once having run five times, two of which ended in wins, including most recently at Newmarket over 1,800m. He hasn’t been since yet this season and although he has some nice form, he looks vulnerable up against a few of the more lightly-raced runners and may find this a little too tough.
SELECTIONS: 8. STEPHENSONS ROCKET, 3. KEY VICTORY, 5. OLD PERSIAN, 6. PETRUS & 2. HIGHBROW
S2-6 3yo 86-105 Handicap
The closing 1,600m handicap looks a particularly difficult puzzle to solve with a number of the runners possessing solid claims. William Buick and Charlie Appleby took this race in 2016 with FOLKSWOOD and team up with SYMBOLIZATION on Saturday. Appleby is enjoying a purple patch at the moment and in SYMBOLIZATION he looks to have another decent performer. The son of CAPE CROSS has shown a fair amount of promise so far, having failed to finish out of the first two on his three starts. However, he was beaten on his seasonal reappearance at a short price when receiving weight from the John Gosden-trained PURSER over 1,400m at Newmarket. That would have sharpened him up and he should strip fitter now stepped up in trip here.
SYMBOLIZATION’s closest challenger could be the Roger Varian-trained SAM GOLD who sneaks into the race off a feather weight. He ran steadily during his 2YO campaign and the form of his second at Nottingham on his most recent start was franked when MERLIN MAGIC won a handicap impressively at Sandown last week. This race is a step up from what he’s run in before, but his connections must believe he’s well handicapped to pitch him in here.
Appleby looks to hold a strong hand in the race as he saddles another interesting contender in FOLK TALE. The son of DUBAWI was last seen when finishing a disappointing ninth in a Listed contest over 1,400m at Newmarket. His breeding suggests that he will improve for this 1,600m trip and he’s clearly well thought of having been pitched into G2 level last season. His jockey James Doyle is in fantastic form at the moment and FOLK TALE is another who looks to have plenty of improvement left in him.
Like most of the runners in the race, BOOK OF DREAMS won’t be lacking for race fitness. The DREAM AHEAD gelding has run three times so far this year, notching up two wins in the process. He has plenty of experience over this distance too, with his last four runs being contested over 1,600m. There must be concerns on whether he will be seen at his best on good ground, though, as he has done the majority of his winning in soft conditions.
Trainer Richard Fahey has enjoyed plenty of success in recent weeks and he saddles CROWNTHORPE for this one. He’s another who should come into the race in prime condition having already run twice this season. Fahey’s runner won well on his last start at Ripon over 1,600m on soft ground where he showed a good turn of foot to win by over two lengths. He does have form on a better surface, but this is a much deeper race than those he’s run in so far and he’ll need a career best to be involved at the finish.
SELECTIONS: 1. SYMBOLIZATION, 6. SAM GOLD, 2. FOLK TALE, 3. BOOK OF DREAMS & 4. CROWNTHORPE
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