 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Poule d'Essai des Poulains Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 3yo Claiming
The opening race on the card, the 3yo Claiming run over 1,800m, looks a very tricky puzzle to solve.
The top rated horse in the line-up is DIAMOND WINE trained by Francois Rohaut. He is one who won’t be lacking in match fitness having already run three times this year, including a victory at Deauville in March over 1,500m. DIAMOND WINE finished last of seven on his most recent start, but that was in a stronger race than this. A repeat performance of his win two starts back could be good enough to get him in the winner’s circle. He is bred to appreciate the step up in distance too and is another who looks to have solid claims of taking this.
One of the most experienced horses is the Mathieu Boutin-trained DAY OF REST. Boutin’s runner has already had eight runs this year, including two wins. Those were both run over further than 1,800m meaning he should have no problems with this trip. This is arguably a slighter weaker race than the one DAY OF REST came third in last time at Chantilly and he could make his superior stamina and experience count. DAY OF REST will also be receiving weight from the colts in the line-up and he is one to take seriously.
Mathieu Boutin could have a big part to play in the race as he also saddles STROMBOLI. The son of PEDRO THE GREAT has been running in handicaps recently and his last run over 1,900m at Chantilly was a solid performance. That was just six days before this race and if he is feeling no ill effects of that run, he has the potential to go close again here. The only concern with him as well as DAY OF REST is that their trainer is going through a bit of a quiet spell.
KHOCHENKO is one of the least experienced runners in the line-up. He is having just the third run of his life, but brings some solid form into the race having finished behind some very good horses in a 1,500m maiden at Deauville last year. The race was won by OLMEDO who finished second in the G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere over 1,600m in October. He followed that up with a solid second in a 1,600m Lyon maiden and has been off the track since then. You can expect him to be ready to go, however, and with his trainer in good form, he looks to hold solid claims.
If EVER LOVE was able to repeat some of the form she showed last year, she could go close here. She has been a fairly frequent visitor to the winner’s enclosure, having won twice last year. Stephane Wattel’s filly hasn’t quite been on her game so far this year though and connections will hoping a first try on a right-handed track will bring out the required improvement needed to take this.
SELECTIONS: 3. DAY OF REST, 1. DIAMOND WINE, 4. STROMBOLI, 5. KHOCHENKO & 6. EVER LOVE
S1-2 2yo Allowance
The 1,000m 2yo Allowance is a race packed with precocious 2YOs, and with some good prize money up for grabs, Great Britain trainers Robert Cowell and Amy Murphy have decided to make the short trip over the English Channel.
Twice a winner of the G1 King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot and once the G1 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp over today’s course and distance, Cowell is a superb trainer of sprinters and he holds two chances here with POCKET DYNAMO and SO HI SPEED. The US-bred duo finished first and second, with POCKET DYNAMO coming out on top by a length, over 1,000m at Chelmsford City last time out. He quickened up nicely to pass his stablemate in the closing stages that day, although he was in receipt of weight and now carries a penalty, so it wouldn’t be a total shock to see SO HI SPEED reverse the form. SO HI SPEED, who has looked like he wants a little further in each of his runs, will probably try and make the running once more and may well hold on for a place.
IMOTEP brings some of the strongest French form to the race having won on his second start at Chantilly last time out. He won that race by four lengths – an impressive winning margin for a 1,000m contest – with ELDANZA, who reopposes here, even further back in fifth.
NAKAKANDE is bred for speed and showed some improvement to come on from her fifth on debut at Bath over 1,009m to win on French soil at Nantes over 1,100m last month. The daughter of BUNGLE INTHEJUNGLE, an exciting new sire in the sprint breeding ranks, is clearly a speedy sort and she could be hard to keep out of the frame.
Arguably the best piece of form in the race is held by THEGREATESTSHOWMAN, who, like POCKET DYNAMO and SO HI SPEED, also hails from the Great Britain. His trainer, Amy Murphy, was winning big races over the jumps during the winter but she’s now off and running on the Flat and had a good winner over 1,200m at Chelmsford City last week. THEGREATESTSHOWMAN ran a great race to finish third on debut at Newbury over 1,031m back in April and the form of that contest is beginning to work out well. The fourth and sixth that day have both been out and placed since, while the winner holds an entry in a highly valuable prize at Newmarket later this autumn. By EQUIANO, he’s a speedily bred sort and this race looks the perfect opportunity to get his first win on the board.
SEPOY filly DROP DEAD GORGEOUS also makes the shortlist having won on debut over 1,000m at Chantilly earlier this month. It looked a fairly nice performance on the eye, though none of those in behind have come out and run again, so it’s hard to know exactly how good she is.
SELECTIONS: 8. THEGREATESTSHOWMAN, 2. POCKET DYNAMO, 3. IMOTEP, 5. DROP DEAD GORGEOUS & 4. NAKAKANDE
S1-3 Prix de Saint-Georges
Speed fans get their fix in the G3 1,000m Prix de Saint-Georges and many of these runners will be hoping to head back to this course and distance for the G1 Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp in the autumn. British sprinters have tended to dominate the big French sprints in the past couple of seasons and are represented by MUTHMIR, MIRZA and JUST GLAMOROUS.
The pick of that trio is likely to be William Haggas’s MUTHMIR who can go close despite not quite living up to expectations throughout his career. He has a good record fresh and the better the ground, the better his chance. He’s not quite up to G1 level but he did win a G2 contest over 1,000m at Chantilly last June, so he must be respected at this level.
At the grand old age of 11, MIRZA is the oldest runner in the line-up and is no stranger to traveling to France. In fact, this will be his 20th race on French soil and he has won here three times before. However, the last of those victories came back in 2015 and he finished last on his reappearance at Newmarket earlier in the month.
One horse that could go well at decent odds is JUST GLAMOROUS who is lightning from the barriers and dangerous if he gets to the lead. He will strip fitter now than when having his first run of the campaign at Newbury over 1,031m last time and was a winner on French soil a couple of years ago.
The pick of the home challenge has to be SIGNS OF BLESSING who has won on his seasonal debut for the past two seasons. That includes this race 12 months ago when run at Deauville, so his absence since finishing last of 13 in the G1 1,200m Hong Kong Sprint at Sha Tin in December shouldn’t be seen as a negative. One of the older contenders in the race, his best form is on home soil and with a bit of cut in the ground, so conditions should be perfect for Francois Rohaut’s 7YO. Although he is taking on some young, improving types, the son of INVINCIBLE SPIRIT is another with plenty of speed and is very strong at G3 level. He could prove the one to beat.
GOLD VIBE hasn’t finished out of the first two places in any of his last six races and is remarkably consistent, albeit at a lower level. He is only 5YO and looks to be improving, although this looks his toughest test to date. Last time out he finished a close second over 1,200m in a G3 at Maisons-Laffitte and he looks a sprinter improving with every start. He had SON CESIO behind him in third that day and he looks another who would like the ground to dry out. It may well have been the very soft ground that caught him out last time and he could be the one to give SIGNS OF BLESSING the most to think about.
SELECTIONS: 2. SIGNS OF BLESSING, 1. SON CESIO, 5. GOLD VIBE, 3. MUTHMIR & 8. JUST GLAMOROUS
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3:
Banker – 2. SIGNS OF BLESSING
Selections – 1. SON CESIO, 5. GOLD VIBE, 3. MUTHMIR & 8. JUST GLAMOROUS
S1-4:
Banker – 8. WOOTTON
Selections – 2. DICE ROLL, 1. OLMEDO, 4. U S NAVY FLAG & 3. HEY GAMAN
S1-4 Poule d'Essai des Poulains
The Classic season is now underway in Europe and this weekend it’s the turn of the French with the 1,600m G1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains, run at the newly re-opened ParisLongchamp. The last two renewals have taken place at Deauville and 12 months ago it was the Jean-Claude Rouget-trained BRAMETOT who was successful, giving his trainer a first success in this race.
Rouget is represented this year by OLMEDO who chased home Sunday’s rival WOOTTON in the G3 Prix de Fontainebleau over this course and distance last month. That was a good comeback effort by OLMEDO, who had split HAPPILY and MASAR in the 1,600m G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Chantilly back in October. Although this son of DECLARATION OF WAR has only won one of his four starts, he has some strong form and it will be difficult to keep him out of the frame.
WOOTTON has to make the step up to G1 company, but that shouldn’t be a problem for this Godolphin-owned unbeaten WOOTTON BASSETT colt. It was a gutsy display to beat OLMEDO on his reappearance, where he was quickly away and always doing enough to hold off his pursuers. Henri-Alex Pantall had been considering the G1 2000 Guineas Stakes but decided to stay closer to home and his patience can be rewarded on Sunday with Mickael Barzalona taking the ride. Godolphin last won this prize in 2005 with SHAMARDAL, so Sheikh Mohammed and his team will be hoping they can end the drought.
Speaking of powerful owners and Ballydoyle once again showed their strength on Saturday with SAXON WARRIOR winning the G1 2000 Guineas Stakes. They were contemplating running U S NAVY FLAG in that race, but he now comes here and this two-time G1 winner cannot be ruled out. He was admittedly disappointing on his reappearance at Leopardstown in the 1,400m Listed Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial Stakes, but the ground was very soft that day. Prior to that, he was well beaten in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over 1,700m at Del Mar in November, although that was on dirt. You have to be a good horse to win the G1 1,200m Middle Park Stakes and G1 1,400m Dewhurst Stakes as a juvenile, so as long as the ground isn’t too bad, Ryan Moore’s mount should run a big race.
Perhaps the biggest threat to WOOTTON will come in the shape of DICE ROLL who is definitely on a roll after three straight wins. He couldn’t have been more impressive on his seasonal debut in last month’s G3 Prix Djebel at Deauville over 1,400m, while he showed last season that he has the stamina for 1,600m when taking a Conditions race over that distance at Chantilly in September. Fabrice Chappet won his first Classic last year when PRECIEUSE landed the G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches and he must have a decent chance of notching another on Sunday.
English raider HEY GAMAN ran well last time over 1,400m at Newbury and steps up to 1,600m here for the first time. There has to be a doubt over whether he will be as effective over this extra distance though and he may have to settle for minor honours.
SELECTIONS: 8. WOOTTON, 2. DICE ROLL, 1. OLMEDO, 4. U S NAVY FLAG & 3. HEY GAMAN
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 8. WOOTTON, 2. DICE ROLL & 1. OLMEDO
S1-5: Multiple – 13. POLYDREAM, 14. BARKAA & 8. MUSIS AMICA
S1-6: Multiple – 1. KING PLATIN, 3. ZOUK & 2. SPIRIT'S REVENCH
S1-5 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches
Freddy Head is the most successful jockey in the history of the G1 1,600m Poule d'Essai des Pouliches with eight wins and has a great chance of landing the prize for a first time as a trainer with the talented POLYDREAM. The 3YO had her form boosted without even running last week when LAURENS ran so well to finish second in last Sunday’s G1 1,600m 1000 Guineas Stakes at Newmarket. Last August she finished nearly two lengths behind POLYDREAM in a G3 at Deauville before going on to land the G1 1,600m Fillies' Mile at Newmarket, beating the likes of MAGICAL and SEPTEMBER. On that form alone, if POLYDREAM returns to her best she should go very close.
BARKAA returned from a 56-day break with a win when landing the G3 1,800m Prix Vanteaux in heavy conditions at ParisLongchamp a month ago, winning by a comfortable four lengths. She got the better of previous G3-winner SOUSTRACTION that day and deserves a chance up in grade having dismantled the opposition so easily last time out in conditions that were far from suitable.
Andre Fabre is a trainer that always needs respect and his MUSIS AMICA looks sure to get involved having won both of her previous two starts. She followed a win in a maiden at Saint Cloud with an eye-catching victory in the G3 1,600m Prix de la Grotte last time and looks an exciting prospect. G2 winner MAGICAL was among the horses in behind that day so it would be a surprise were she not to at least to make the places, but she will face a battle from the likes of COEUR DE BEAUTE.
COEUR DE BEAUTE is another who brings G3 winning form to the table having landed the G3 1,400m Prix Imprudence last month when getting the better of ZONZA, a previous winner at that level. That victory came off a 165-day break and there’s every reason to believe she will come on for that run.
Aidan O’Brien-trained COULD IT BE LOVE looks the best of the rest. However, the 3YO will do well to break the hearts of the locals having seen French-trained horses win the previous 14 runnings of this contest. She made a mockery of her rivals when winning a maiden by six lengths at Dundalk in April after a 326-day break having disappointed on all three of her previous appearances before that. On paper she has a lot to find but it would be no surprise at all to see her get involved for a trainer who knows all about Classic glory, especially as winners have already come out of that race.
Andre Fabre’s WIND CHIMES went off favourite for the aforementioned G3 1,600m Prix de la Grotte, but was blown away by the opposition and finished a well-beaten fifth. She had previously won a Listed and a maiden contest by three-and-a-half lengths on each occasion and deserves another chance with the conditions providing an excuse for that sub-par run.
Jean-Claude Rouget has won three of the previous four runnings of this race but isn’t expected to trouble the main protagonists with MISSION IMPASSIBLE here.
SELECTIONS: 13. POLYDREAM, 14. BARKAA, 8. MUSIS AMICA, 5. WIND CHIMES & 1. COEUR DE BEAUTE
S1-6 Grand Handicap de ParisLongchamp
The Grand Handicap de ParisLongchamp, run over 2,000m, has attracted plenty of interesting contenders, many of whom are closely matched on ratings.
The obvious starting point is the Corine Barande Barbe-trained KING PLATIN. Barbe’s runner carries top-weight here and comes into it off the back of a strong performance in a Listed contest over 1,800m at ParisLongchamp last time. The form of that run looks strong with the winner having taken a competitive handicap the time before. KING PLATIN steps back into handicap company here and a repeat performance could well be good enough to take this. He has gone up in the weights as a result of that run and the major question mark against him is whether or not he will be able to cope with it.
Another contender who brings Listed form into this is SPIRIT’S REVENCH who was last seen when finishing seventh in a strong looking contest over 2,400m at ParisLongchamp. Philippe Demercastel’s colt has been running over distances further than this and will look to use his extra stamina here. He won over 2,500m at Deauville off a similar weight to what he’ll be carrying here and providing he doesn’t get outpaced over this shorter trip, he is another who looks to have a solid chance.
MAGARI is one who comes into this in great form. The son of DENON won an open-looking handicap under Christophe Soumillon over course and distance on his last start. He has been running consistently for quite a while and although he does occasionally throw in a bad run, he now seems to be getting it together on a more consistent basis. MAGARI isn’t the most trustworthy of propositions, but if he can produce his best he has shown he has the ability to get involved.
Like MAGARI, ZOUK brings winning form into this race after winning the Conditions race at Maisons-Laffitte over 2,500m on her last start. Prior to that, she ran well when finishing third in a Listed race at ParisLongchamp over 2,100m. The form of that race is some of the strongest on offer with both horses who beat her going onto run creditably in G3s on their next outings. Pascal Adda’s 4YO’s last three runs have shown she is a filly who is improving and she has to be taken seriously, especially with the weight allowance she will receive.
FLAG FEN was bred in the Great Britain, but the 5YO has done all of his racing in France. He has been a consistent handicapper for his connections, although he hasn’t got his head in front for a while. The son of OASIS DREAM is beautifully bred and there is plenty of stamina on the dam side too. It would probably take a career best to take this, but he’s been dropping down the weights and could be well handicapped.
Jean-Pierre Gauvin has a potentially interesting runner in the shape of PUMP PUMP PALACE. The 5YO son of KING’S BEST has been consistent recently, finishing on the podium on his last three starts. He has some solid form in behind some Group-rated horses, but seems to struggle to get himself in the winner’s enclosure. He will need to improve again to be involved here.
SELECTIONS: 1. KING PLATIN, 3. ZOUK, 2. SPIRIT'S REVENCH, 6. MAGARI & 13. FLAG FEN
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