Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. |
Expert Column for King's Stand Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Queen Anne Stakes
The traditional curtain raiser of Royal Ascot, the G1 Queen Anne Stakes, run over 1,600m, has an impressive and distinguished roll of honour. The likes of GOLDIKOVA, CANFORD CLIFFS and FRANKEL have taken this G1 contest in the past and while there are a number of Group winners in this year’s line-up, it’s perhaps slightly lacking in depth.
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2006, 2008 and most recently in 2013 with DECLARATION OF WAR, and he saddles likely favourite RHODODENDRON this time around. The daughter of GALILEO will be having her third start of the season over this distance having taken the 1,600m G1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury last time, where she had a number of her Queen Anne rivals in behind. Prior to that, she had run predominately over further, with her best performance coming when taking the 2,000m G1 Prix de l'Opera at Chantilly last year. She went off a short-priced favourite for last year’s G1 1,600m 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, where she was narrowly beaten by stablemate WINTER, before finishing second to ENABLE in the G1 Epsom Oaks over 2,400m. While some of her best form is over further than this, the stiff 1,600m at Ascot should play to her strengths and she has to be respected for her all-conquering connections.
Godolphin won the race for an eighth time last year with RIBCHESTER and they are represented by BENBATL this year. Saeed bin Suroor’s runner returns having enjoyed a profitable campaign in Meydan where his win in the G1 Dubai Turf over 1,800m was the highlight. He won the G3 Hampton Court Stakes at this meeting last year and with his trainer in red-hot form, he must be respected, although most of his form is over further than this 1,600m trip.
BEAT THE BANK finished behind RHODODENDRON in the G1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury and connections will be hoping he can return to the form he showed for large parts of 2017. He was progressive last year, winning in Listed company before taking races at G3 and G2 level all over 1,600m. Andrew Balding’s yard has hit form recently and this son of PACO BOY could easily outrun his odds.
French-trained horses have won the race two times since 2010 and RECOLETOS will be seeking to make it three. The Carlos Laffon-Parias-trained 4YO is unbeaten this season and comes into this on the back of a win in the G1 Prix d'Ispahan at ParisLongchamp over 1,850m. He looks a horse still improving and the acceleration he showed at Longchamp means he is a real danger to the whole field. However, all of his form has come on ground much softer than what he’ll encounter at Ascot and that must be a concern for connections.
While Aidan O’Brien will be hoping RHODODENDRON can give him a fourth win in the race, the Ballydoyle handler looks to have a lively outsider in DEAUVILLE. He ran very well in the race 12 months ago, which proved that he is well suited by 1,600m on quick ground. The 5YO ran well over 1,800m at Newmarket on his seasonal reappearance before a solid fifth behind RHODODENDRON at Newbury last time. DEAUVILLE rarely runs a bad race in the Great Britain and is another who looks overpriced.
The same could also be said about David O’Meara’s SUEDOIS, who like DEAUVILLE, ran solidly in the 1,600m G1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. The 7YO had been campaigned over 1,200m and 1,400m for the majority over his career, but seemed to thrive when stepped up to 1,600m last season. SUEDOIS took a G2 at Leopardstown before winning the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes at Keeneland over the distance in impressive style. This 1,600m seems to his ideal trip now and although older horses have a poor record in the race, he could be the one to buck the trend.
SELECTIONS: 15. RHODODENDRON, 2. BEAT THE BANK, 3. BENBATL, 5. DEAUVILLE & 12. SUEDOIS
S1-2 Coventry Stakes
Aidan O’Brien has won the G2 Coventry Stakes run over 1,200m on eight different occasions and will be hopeful SERGEI PROKOFIEV is on-song as he looks to improve on that record. Sharing a name with the Russian-composer, SERGEI PROKOFIEV is battling for favouritism in the market having won two of his three racecourse appearances to date, all in Ireland. He disappointed when beaten by the shortest of distances at odds-on on the polytrack at Dundalk over 1,000m on debut, but he made no mistake less than two weeks later when securing a seven-length victory. The son of SCAT DADDY showed that was no fluke when securing a Listed contest over the minimum distance at Naas in style, this time putting four lengths of daylight between him and the chasing field. O’Brien’s fancy will have no trouble with the ground having won on good-to-firm already in his career and clearly boasts an abundance of potential for a yard who won this two years ago.
However, he may have his work cut out stopping the son of KINGMAN, CALYX, who looked mightily impressive when beating Lingfield winner OCTAVE by five lengths on debut over 1,200m at Newmarket only 10 days ago. Becoming the first of KINGMAN’s offspring to win on the track, he was a further six lengths clear of KHAADEM in third and never looked in danger, stretching clear of the only horse with experience.
The two at the head of the betting look to have the race between them, with COSMIC LAW looking the best of the rest when it comes to filling the bronze medal position thanks to his recent demolition job at Epsom over 1,203m. Richard Fahey’s entry put six lengths between him and last-time-out winner USAIN BOAT on that occasion to further bolster his claims following victory at Carlisle two weeks prior over 1,000m.
Martyn Meade’s ADVERTISE caught people’s attentions on debut when winning on debut over 1,200m at Newbury, putting in a thoroughly professional performance to score by three-quarters-of-a-length ahead of POGO and BURJ. He hasn’t been since but will have learnt a lot and there’s no reason he won’t have come on enough to beat both once again, although he looks to have his work cut out with the top two in the market.
BURJ represents the powerful Saeed bin Suroor yard, but DUBAI LEGACY looks to be his first string with French rider Christophe Soumillon taking the ride in a bid to land the prize for Godolphin. He too won on debut, beating EAGLE HUNTER by half a length despite hanging. The strength of that race is yet to be boosted but he kept on well to land the prize and will come on for that appearance.
SHINE SO BRIGHT and INDIGO BALANCE are also one win from one appearance, but their victories don’t look quite as strong as that of the main protagonists, nor does VANGE’s win.
One outsider who could go well is the Richard Hannon-trained FOX CHAMPION who was beaten on his debut but travelled well throughout and will relish this faster ground.
SELECTIONS: 7. CALYX, 20. SERGEI PROKOFIEV, 8. COSMIC LAW, 1. ADVERTISE & 9. DUBAI LEGACY
S1-3 King's Stand Stakes
Over the minimum trip and on ground set to race fast on the opening day of Royal Ascot, raw speed is what’s required to win the G1 1,000m King’s Stand Stakes. US filly LADY AURELIA won last year’s renewal in great style, pulverising her 16 rivals by three lengths and in a time just one hundredth of a second outside of the track record set by Aussie sprinter MISS ANDRETTI in 2007. She has to be respected on her return to the GB and will be extremely hard to beat if repeating that run of 12 months ago.
It’s slightly concerning that she’s been beaten in her two starts since though, and a big performance from Charles Hill’s BATTAASH could sink her dreams of a Royal Ascot hat-trick. Hills’ 4YO hasn’t run at Ascot since finishing 12th of 22 in the 2016 Windsor Castle Stakes but he’s come on quite a bit since then. He’s won five of his last six starts, including the prestigious 1,000m G1 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp by a staggering four lengths, and looks set for a big run after winning the 1,000m G2 Temple Stakes at Haydock under a penalty on his seasonal reappearance. Despite showing his liking for a softer surface with wins in the G1 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp as well as the G2 1,000m King George Stakes at Goodwood last season, the son of DARK ANGEL has shown he can win when the going gets quick as well and he should be the one battling it out with LADY AURELIA. The big issue with BATTAASH is whether he will be able to cope with the preliminaries as he ran flat at York behind MARSHA last year when boiling over before the start. If he can remain cool and calm, the race is his for the taking.
WASHINGTON DC was the latest horse to chase home BATTAASH, beaten by just a head in the G2 Temple Stakes and he’ll be hoping he can go close again. That run suggested he could be returning to something near his best, and as a former runner-up of the 2016 G1 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp and the G2 King George Stakes in the same year, he’s one for the shortlist, as is Tom Dascombe’s KACHY. He’s three out of three over 1,000m at Chester, probably the tightest track in the GB where gate speed is essential, and he’s likely to be up with the early pace on his third start at Ascot. That was the case when running in last year’s 1,200m G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes, where he led the field from the gates right into the final furlong but faded late to finish 10th. The step back to 1,000m, a trip that he’s registered four of his six wins at, looks a positive, though there’s no denying he’d need a career-best to get past LADY AURELIA and BATTAASH.
With those two dominating the head of the market, the likes of MABS CROSS hold some appeal at a much bigger price. He won the 1,000m G3 Palace House Stakes before finishing a close fourth to BATTAASH in the G2 Temple Stakes and could still be improving.
The fact that Ryan Moore has opted to ride DIFFERENT LEAGUE in preference to the stable’s three other runners is of interest. She won the G3 company over 1,200m last season as a 2YO when trained in France and a return to that form could see her grab a place.
SELECTIONS: 1. BATTAASH, 10. LADY AURELIA, 6. KACHY, 11. MABS CROSS & 9. WASHINGTON DC
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 1. BATTAASH
Selections – 10. LADY AURELIA, 6. KACHY, 11. MABS CROSS & 9. WASHINGTON DC
S1-4: Banker – 5. ROMANISED
Selections – 10. WOOTTON, 9. WITHOUT PAROLE, 7. TIP TWO WIN & 8. U S NAVY FLAG
S1-4 St James's Palace Stakes
The 1,594m G1 St James's Palace Stakes has been dominated by Aidan O’Brien since the turn of the millennium, with the trainer scooping the prize seven times. John Gosden, Richard Hannon Jnr and Hugo Palmer have also won it in the past four years, yet it’s TIP TWO WIN for little-known trainer Roger Teal who boasts one of the best chances of victory. This son of DARK ANGEL put in a huge run in the 1,600m G1 2000 Guineas at Newmarket back in May, finishing less than two lengths behind O’Brien’s well-fancied SAXON WARRIOR in second. That was his first run back in Britain after claiming two wins in Doha in December and February, which included a conditions race over 1,400m and a local G2 over 1,600m. MASAR, who went off favourite that day, finished third in the aforementioned Newmarket race and has since given a huge boost to that piece of form by winning the G1 Derby Stakes over 2,405m. TIP TWO WIN clearly has the form to get involved, but the stable hasn’t been in the best of form recently and they are taking on the big guns here.
John Gosden, who won the race with KINGMAN in 2014, is represented by WITHOUT PAROLE, who is expected to go off favourite having won all three of his racecourse appearances. Those victories all came over 1,600m and include successes at Newcastle on the tapeta, a novices’ victory at Yarmouth in April after a break, and most recently in a Listed contest at Sandown. WITHOUT PAROLE, a son of FRANKEL, winner of this race for Sir Henry Cecil in 2011, got the better of Sir Michael Stoute’s GABR in that Sandown victory who re-opposes here. However, there is nothing in his form to suggest GABR can turn the tables on the Frankie Dettori-ridden WITHOUT PAROLE as the world-famous Italian bids to perform his flying dismount.
Irish trainer Ken Condon looks to hold a great chance of taking some of the prize pot back to the Emerald Isle as his 1,600m G1 Irish 2000 Guineas-winning ROMANISED makes the short trip over. He wasn’t given much of a chance pre-race, going off 25/1 having failed to sparkle at Naas on his seasonal debut, but he kept on well to get the better of both U S NAVY FLAG and GUSTAV KLIMT. ROMANISED ran well at this meeting 12 months ago when lacking the gears to get involved in the G2 Coventry Stakes over 1,200m. He will relish this 1,600m trip and is also at home on the ground.
Godolphin and France are represented by WOOTTON, who is three from four to date for trainer Henri-Alex Pantall, with the pick of his form the victory in the G3 1,600m Prix de Fontainebleau. He beat the well-fancied OLMEDO that day and although he finished fourth most recently in the G1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains over 1,600m, he did have the aforementioned U S NAVY FLAG behind. As long as he handles the fast ground he is likely to be involved in the finish.
SELECTIONS: 5. ROMANISED, 10. WOOTTON, 9. WITHOUT PAROLE, 7. TIP TWO WIN & 8. U S NAVY FLAG
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 5. ROMANISED, 10. WOOTTON & 9. WITHOUT PAROLE
S1-5: Multiple – 20. COEUR DE LION, 15. STRATUM & 7. CHELKAR
S1-6: Multiple – 9. LARAAIB, 13. SHARJA BRIDGE & 4. MIRAGE DANCER
S1-5 Ascot Stakes (Handicap)
There really is something for everyone at Royal Ascot and the penultimate race on the first day of the meeting is the 3,991m, the Ascot Stakes (Handicap). This marathon contest has tended to go to National Hunt trainers in recent years, as their horses are laden with so much stamina. The Irish have won five of the last six, with Ireland’s champion jump trainer Willie Mullins responsible for three of those victories and he looks hold a strong hand again, saddling five of the 20 declared runners. His best chance could be the former John Gosden-trained STRATUM who hasn’t raced on the Flat for quite some time. He has performed respectably over hurdles and you can be sure that this race will have been the target.
Stable jockey Ryan Moore rides CHELKAR who is having his first start for Mullins and hasn’t seen a racecourse for nearly two years when trained in France. It would be an extraordinary training performance if this one was to score here as not only will he be trying to overcome a huge absence, he has never run over further than 2,000m before. However, the jockey booking is a tip in its own right and that has to be respected.
The stable also has MERI DEVIE who hasn’t run on the Flat for over two years, but that was in a G1 at Deauville over 2,000m when in the care of French trainer Nicolas Clement. He was only beaten 4½ lengths that day, which wasn’t a bad effort and he has solely raced over jumps since then for Mullins. His last appearance was a winning one, taking a 4,000m handicap hurdle at the Punchestown in April and he is likely to be a popular selection.
Another notable Mullins contender who has decent claims is LAGOSTOVEGAS, who was third in the 3,600m Handicap at Newmarket last October before finishing second in a 2,400m Listed contest at Naas in November. Since then he’s been running over hurdles and did well to finish fifth in the 3,400m Hurdles race last start.
The key thing to remember about this race is that it’s over 4,000m rather than 3,200m which is a far more common distance on the Flat. Stamina is absolutely crucial and Alan King’s COEUR DE LION looks certain to relish this extra 800m. He has finished second on his last two Flat starts at Newbury and Chester over 3,600m and 3,727m respectively. On both of those starts he’s been doing his best work at the finish and Martin Harley will surely try to play his hand late on to go past the doubtful stayers. He finished a neck behind LOOK MY WAY at Chester last time over 3,727m doing all his best work at the finish. The winner held on gamely from the front and looks sure to run well again.
DANNYDAY was making his first racecourse appearance for nearly two years at Goodwood last month when finishing fourth over 2,800m. He had been gelded during his absence and is trained by a master in Sir Michael Stoute. He is undoubtedly a classy horse, but has to prove his stamina and fitness could be a concern.
Karen McLintock’s DUBAWI FIFTY ran a very good race to be fourth in the 3,727m Chester Cup last time. He didn’t have the best barrier that day, so it was a more than respectable effort and he was also fourth in the Cesarewitch Handicap over 3,600m on his final start of 2017. Silvestre de Sousa takes the ride and the pair have a good chance of finishing in the money.
HASSLE won at Ascot back in 2014 when trained by Clive Cox, but he is now at Dr Richard Newland’s yard where he has been running over hurdles. He won earlier this month and will like the decent ground, so he looks to be an outsider with a chance of sneaking into the places.
SELECTIONS: 20. COEUR DE LION, 15. STRATUM, 7. CHELKAR, 12. LAGOSTOVEGAS & 11. LOOK MY WAY
S1-6 Wolferton Stakes
The closing race on the opening day of Royal Ascot is the Listed Wolferton Stakes, run over 1,993m. This race has been given Listed status having been run as a handicap since its inception in 2002. Favourites don’t have a particularly strong record in the race, with only three emerging victorious, but this year’s market leader LARAAIB looks a strong contender. The Owen Burrows-trained 4YO has been lightly raced so far and this will be just the sixth start of his career. He brings some of the best form into the race, though, with his second to POET’S WORD over 1,990m in the G3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown last time looking particularly strong. Considering POET’S WORD is second favourite for the G1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, LARAAIB’s run off a 285 day break was very impressive and he must go close if repeating that again here.
Roger Varian and Andrea Atzeni have been in good form recently and they team up with SHARJA BRIDGE here. The son of OASIS DREAM has been ultra-consistent in his career so far having failed to finish outside of the first three on his five starts. He should be race-fit for this too having looked in need of the run on his seasonal reappearance behind OASIS CHARM over 1,800m at Newmarket in early May. While this is the strongest field he will have encountered, he has yet to run a bad race and it looks as if this extended trip will suit.
The Wolferton Stakes is one of few races at the Royal meeting which Frankie Dettori has yet to win and he will look to change that with top-weight MONARCHS GLEN this year. The 4YO son of FRANKEL is another whose best form would bring him right into contention. However, he is hard to predict and his poor run at Meydan in March over 1,800m wouldn’t have offered much encouragement to his connections.
In the same ownership, MIRAGE DANCER bids to give Sir Michael Stoute his third win in the race and first since 2009. Another one from the crop of FRANKEL, Stoute’s 4YO is in good form having won a Listed race over 2,398m at Goodwood on his last start. His run behind BARSANTI on his seasonal reappearance at Ascot over 2,392m was another encouraging performance while he ran well in third in the G3 Hampton Court Stakes at this meeting last year. He should go well here, but he has failed to win since his racecourse debut in October 2016 and could be set for minor honours again.
The Queen is represented by the Michael Bell-trained FABRICATE. He is one of the oldest horses in the line-up at six and bids to become the first horse of that age to win the race. Connections will be hoping for a similar performance to when FABRICATE finished second to CRYSTAL OCEAN in the G3 Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown over 1,990m. The form of that run looks very solid with CRYSTAL OCEAN a hot favourite for the G2 Hardwicke Stakes on the last day of the meeting. He looks a solid contender, but could be slightly vulnerable to some younger types.
William Buick is the only jockey to have won the race twice and he will be looking to make it three with KIDMENEVER. The 5YO son of BALTIC KING will be seeking his first win in the GB having opened his account for trainer Charlie Appleby at Meydan over 2,000m in March. The Godolphin-runner looks to be well-treated at the weights and connections will be hoping he can go two better than his third in this race 12 months ago.
SELECTIONS: 9. LARAAIB, 13. SHARJA BRIDGE, 4. MIRAGE DANCER, 8. KIDMENEVER & 3. FABRICATE
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