 Expert - Naohiro Goda |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Sprinters Stakes Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 3yo and up allowance
The 1,600m at Nakayama with a triangle course should have advantages for horses who start from inside barriers. The course has been changed to “C Course” since last week, so the surface is very well in condition.
My first selection is REGINA D'ORO. Out of the G1 Japanese 1000 Guineas winner REGINETTA, the 3YO filly has never missed on board in four outings. With her strong stretch run, she covered the last 600m in the fastest fractional time (32.9 seconds) latest when the front runners hang on and she finished well third. Joao Moreira has been booked to ride.
The second selection is TEN WORLD REINA. The 3YO filly showed the dramatic change and had a good second effort in her second race up from the 5-month break. Her first career win was the same stage as here, so Nakayama should suit her. She will compete well in higher class as well.
The third selection is THAXTED. He won the maiden race over turf 1,800m at Niigata last August, the 3YO colt finished fifth in the following Listed race over 1,800m in October and fifth in the G3 Keisei Hai over 2,000m at Nakayama in January as his seasonal debut. From 3-month layoff, he did not run his race over the short stretch with small corners at Fukushima latest. He has moved very nicely in the final gallop and no track worries.
The fourth selection is SPIRIT SOUL. After the 4YO colt has been transferred to Takahisa Tezuka stable early this term, he claimed the Allowance race over 1,600m at Nakayama in April. The course should suit him. Ran third under Yutaka Take latest, but softer track will be preferred.
The last selection is NISHINO APPLE PIE. With a good third effort in the middle-class Allowance race over 1,600m at Tokyo last November, the 4YO colt has not tested since January. His best tactic is to take lead. In terms of amount of works he has needed, he has accomplished, according to the stable staff.
SELECTIONS: 16. REGINA D'ORO, 9. TEN WORLD REINA, 11. THAXTED, 7. SPIRIT SOUL & 14. NISHINO APPLE PIE
S1-2 3yo and up allowance
Start is from down the chute over turf course and shift to dirt towards the back straight. Outside runners will have advantage.
My first selection is OVERWRITE. Two wins from eight outings between 1,150m and 1,600m on both turf and dirt. He has not tasted any success since the lower-class stakes race over dirt 1,200m at Nakayama last December, but Nakayama should suit him with proven versatility.
The second selection is SOL PRESA. Winning drought has yet to be ended since May 2016, but the 6YO horse got three thirds in the recent four outings. His temperament issue has been improved a lot with ages.
The third selection is DAIWA SCAMP. Since the 6YO gelding has been shifted from turf to dirt in April this term, he has never finished below par in four starts. The power type of horse can race back saving for a late run. He started slowly last time but finished well second. With his recent good condition, the second effort is not a fluke.
The fourth selection is TRAVELING. Two wins from six outings. Failed to finish on board only once, he won over dirt 1,200m in the maiden race in February this term. He can takes lead or sits handy and no track worries.
The last selection is YASASHISA. The 4YO filly likes the autumn season as she finished 1-2-1 in three starts last term. Her first race up from 3-month layoff was the middle-class Allowance race over dirt 1,150m at Fukushima in July when she was a bit over excited and placed disappointing fifteenth. The second run-up will be much improved and Joao Moreira has been booked to ride.
SELECTIONS: 1. OVERWRITE, 7. SOL PRESA, 8. DAIWA SCAMP, 2. TRAVELING & 13. YASASHISA
S1-3 Saffron Sho
Several promising fillies are included in the field and it is very interesting race which racing fans cannot miss.
CONTRA CHECK, trained by Kazuo Fujisawa, was beaten third in maiden for first time starters at Hakodate on 8th July and disappointed the punters who supported her as the 3 to 10 hot favourite. It looks the filly by DEEP IMPACT learnt many from her first start and she was different horse three weeks later, when she won novice at Sapporo on 28th July by seven lengths running against colts. It is very impressive performance and I have had strong feeling that she should be one of Guineas contenders in April 2019. While she made all the novice, she is easy horse to control and does not need to make the running. She is my first choice.
JODIE by DAIWA MAJOR won the maiden for unraced 2YO fillies at Tokyo on 2nd June by two lengths, and finished fourth in the G3 Niigata Nisai Stakes at Niigata on 26th August, overcoming unlucky wide draw. It was good effort, as we consider that it was first start after having almost three months off. She is out of MONSUN mare, and her dam is half-sister to MAWINGO, winner of the G1 Doomben Cup over 2,000m when he was 4YO. The pedigree suggests there is a plenty of room to improve for JODIE and she should be a horse to keep following in future. And it is encouraging factor that Joao Moreira is booked for her on Sunday. She is my second choice.
D BLOOD is another DEEP IMPACT filly in the field who has shown plenty of scope when she picked up her first win. D BLOOD, bred by North Hills Co. Ltd., the filly trained by Mikio Matsunaga won the maiden for unraced 2YO fillies at Kokura on 5th August by two and half lengths, with Yutaka Take aboard. The legendary jockey commented after the race that “I feel the distance of today’s race, 1,200m, is too short for her.” The distance of Saffron Sho is 1,600m and it should suit her better. She is my third choice.
STILLNESS by GOLD HALO, who won the maiden at Fukushima on 8th July and finished third in the G3 Niigata Nisai Stakes at Niigata on 26th August has also beautiful pedigree, as she is half-sister to LORD QUEST, who won two Graded Stakes and finished second in the G1 NHK Mile Cup. As she re-produces her form of the G3 Niigata Nisai Stakes, STILLNESS should have good chance to earn money again on Sunday. She is my fourth choice.
RED ANEMOS by VICTOIRE PISA, is good winner of maiden at Niigata on 25th August and is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 2. CONTRA CHECK, 7. JODIE, 1. D BLOOD, 10. STILLNESS & 5. RED ANEMOS
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 2. CONTRA CHECK
Selections – 7. JODIE, 1. D BLOOD, 10. STILLNESS & 5. RED ANEMOS
S1-4: Banker – 6. KAPPATSUHATCHI
Selections – 11. BELIEVER, 12. LAVENDER VALLEY, 5. JOYFUL & 2. SMART SHAHEEN
S1-4 Katsuura Tokubetsu
It is wide open race with no outstanding runner. In such close race, I prefer to place my bet on inexperienced horses who may hidden unknown ability.
My first choice is KAPPATSUHATCHI, who has started only four times so far and won two of them. She made her debut at Nakayama on 30th September 2017 when she was beaten second in 1,600m maiden over turf. After having series of training setback and being sidelined for six months, she ran another 1,600m maiden over turf at Nakayama on 8th April and finished eighth. It means she lost her first two starts, both are races over 1,600m on turf. Eiichi Yano who trains the filly by KINSHASA NO KISEKI, Japan’s Champion Sprinter in 2010, selected the 1,200m maiden over dirt at Nakayama on 15th April as her third start, and she displayed the strongest challenge on homestretch to win by three and half lengths. KAPPATSUHATCHI went to run at Niigata on 28th April, when she won the Allowance race, a race of graduation class, over 1,200m on turf by one and a quarter of length. It is obvious that 1,200m is her best trip. Although this is first race for her after having five months off, she is trained beautifully at Miho Training Center and I believe she is ready to run her race. She is my first choice.
Another attractive 3YO filly in the field is BELIEVER. She finished third in the Allowance race at Fukushima on 21st July, beaten three quarters of length by the winner, and second in another Allowance race at Niigata on 2nd September, beaten one and three quarters of lengths by the winner, both of which are stakes races of the same class as Katsuura Tokubetsu, and both of which are races over 1,200m on turf. Her recent form proves she is consistent and indicates she should run well in this race. She is my second choice.
We should always pay attention on the horses ridden by Joao Moreira and a runner who receives his service in the field is LAVENDER VALLEY. The 5YO mare by DEEP IMPACT finished third in the G3 Tulip Sho, one of important prep races for the G1 Japanese 1000 Guineas, first leg of Triple Tiara for 3YO fillies in Japan, in March 2016, and was recognized as promising filly who should have bright future. LAVENDER VALLEY did not live up to those expectations, however, she should be a horse with talent and her new rider may be able to bring out her true ability. She is my third choice.
JOYFUL, winner of the Allowance race for horses belonging to graduation class, on 5th August at Kokura, used to be competing in the same class here, I believe he has ability to finish in first four.
SMART SHAHEEN, ridden by Yutaka Take, who won the Allowance race on 14th July at Chukyo, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 6. KAPPATSUHATCHI, 11. BELIEVER, 12. LAVENDER VALLEY, 5. JOYFUL & 2. SMART SHAHEEN
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 6. KAPPATSUHATCHI, 11. BELIEVER & 12. LAVENDER VALLEY
S1-5: Multiple – 8. FINE NEEDLE, 16. RED FALX & 14. LUCKY BUBBLES
S1-6: Multiple – 12. SAKURA EMPIRE, 6. SATONO HACHE & 5. NAVY BLUE
S1-5 Sprinters Stakes
I have got strong feeling that Godolphin’s FINE NEEDLE is the first “reliable” sprinter for punters since LORD KANALOA at sprint division in Japan, which had been wide open for a while since the retirement of the two-time winner of the G1 Hong Kong Sprint.
I am not saying FINE NEEDLE has the same class as LORD KANALOA, who was given rating 128 when he won the G1 Hong Kong Sprint in 2013, while FINE NEEDLE holds the rating 116, which he obtained when he won the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen in March this year. It is obvious that FINE NEEDLE is still much inferior to LORD KANALOA. On the other hand, 116 is the fourth highest rating ever given to Japanese sprinters and it looks the 5YO horse by ADMIRE MOON is still improving.
The winner of the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen had good four months break, after beaten fourth in the G1 Chairman’s Sprint Prize at Sha Tin in April, and returned to action at Hanshin on 9th September, when the horse trained by Yoshitada Takahashi won the G2 Centaur Stakes comfortably. This performance gave me the impression that he is better horse than he was in spring time, and is far better than other Japanese sprinters in training for the moment. I am quite confident to appoint him as my first pick.
ARES BAROWS, who won the G3 CBC Sho in July and the G3 Kitakyushu Kinen in August, looks to be the candidate of new star at sprint division, although he is already 6YO. However, I reckon the horse by DEEP IMPACT is still not good enough to compete against top class field, and I recommend the punters to place their money on veterans who are as tough as nails.
My second choice is RED FALX, who tries to win the G1 Sprinters Stakes for three consecutive years. His recent form looks poor, as he was defeated in four outings since last November. However, two of them are races over 1,600m, which is too far for him, and he was required to make too much ground when he was beaten third in the G3 Hankyu Hai in February and eighth in the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen in March. The 1,200m over turf at Nakayama is the stage to show himself at his best and I believe he is still able to do his job.
I respect LUCKY BUBBLES, winner of the G1 Chairman’s Sprint Prize in 2017. He was winless though seven starts in 2017/18 season and may look he lost the brilliance of his golden age, however, he finished fourth in the G1 Hong Kong Sprint in December 2017, three quarters of length ahead of LET'S GO DONKI, who finished sixth in the race. As he re-produces this form on Sunday, he should have good chance to earn money. And another encouraging factor for him is his pedigree, as his sire line traces back to SOUTHERN HALO, who has been very successful and influential at horse racing in Japan. He is my third choice.
LET'S GO DONKI and ONCE IN A MOON, who finished second and third in this race twelve months ago respectively, will be my fourth and fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 8. FINE NEEDLE, 16. RED FALX, 14. LUCKY BUBBLES, 10. LET'S GO DONKI & 3. ONCE IN A MOON
S1-6 Uchibo Stakes
SAKURA EMPIRE won three of his first five starts in 2016, when he was 3YO and expected to become one of top performers at dirt division at the time. However, he suddenly lost his form and was well beaten in eight consecutive races. Since last autumn, it looked he lost his spirit, as he left the barrier reluctantly, and many thought, as well as myself, it might be the time to call it a day for him, when he finished twelfth, beaten 19 length by the winner in the Allowance race at Chukyo on 17th March this year.
However, thanks to Noriyuki Hori’s fantastic training performance, SAKURA EMPIRE is now bouncing back. He finished sixth in the Allowance race at Tokyo on 22nd April, beaten two and a half of length by the winner, which is much better performance than his previous starts, and finished fourth in another Allowance race on 26th May at Tokyo beaten just one length by the winner. He finally returned at winners’ enclosure at Fukushima on 22nd July, when he won the Allowance race by one and half length.
Though the competition here is tougher than the previous starts, I believe SAKURA EMPIRE, who has regained his old brilliance, is capable of winning this class, and the service by Joao Moreira should be a big help for him on Sunday. He is my first pick.
SATONO HACHE is the winner of hurdle race at Hanshin on 3rd June. It was his tenth attempt and first win over hurdles. In prior to switching to hurdle race, SATONO HACHE ran 24 flat races and won four races, which is not bad record. And he came back to flat race this summer. He finished fourth in the Allowance race at Fukushima on 14th July, beaten two and a quarter of lengths by the winner, and finished second in another Allowance race at Niigata on 12th August, beaten three lengths by the winner. His recent form proves that he is better flat horse than he was, and should run well in this race. He is my second choice.
My third choice is NAVY BLUE. Though he was beaten eleventh in the Allowance race at Hanshin last time out, Yutaka Take is booked for him on Sunday and it should make NAVY BLUE much better horse.
BRIGHTON ROCK, who has won the Allowance race, as same class as Uchibo Stakes at Nakayama in March, is my fourth choice.
ENESCU, who finished second in the Allowance race at December last year, and third in another Allowance race on 20th January this year, both of which were taken place at the same course and same distance as Uchibo Stakes, is my fifth choice. Though this is the first race for him since April, he is trained well at Miho Training Center and I believe he is ready to run his race.
SELECTIONS: 12. SAKURA EMPIRE, 6. SATONO HACHE, 5. NAVY BLUE, 15. BRIGHTON ROCK & 13. ENESCU
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