 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
European horseracing’s most valuable prize, the 2,400m G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, returns to ParisLongchamp after two years at Chantilly and last year’s winner ENABLE is back to defend her crown. TREVE became the first horse to win the race two years running since ALLEGED in the late 1970s when winning in 2013 and 2014, and ENABLE is a hot favourite to follow in her hoofprints. John Gosden’s brilliant 4YO filly rattled off a five race G1 winning sequence last season, culminating in a sparkling victory in this race 12 months ago. However, injury has prevented her from racing this season and she only made her reappearance in a small 2,400m G3 trial on the polytrack surface at Kempton early last month. She appeared to carry on where she left off at Chantilly last October, quickening away from the useful CRYSTAL OCEAN in effortless fashion. The conditions of the race meant she was entitled to win as easily as she did, but it was still a striking performance after so long on the sidelines. Not only will she line up here fresher than her opposition, she should have improved considerably for her reappearance run, while her draw in barrier 6 is perfect. With a clear run, she is likely to prove very hard to beat again and can give jockey Frankie Dettori his third victory in the race in just four years and his sixth overall.
Fillies and mares have a tremendous recent record in this contest, having won seven of the last 10 renewals, and the 3YO filly SEA OF CLASS looks ENABLE’s biggest threat if conditions remain dry. She never raced as a 2YO and was beaten on her racecourse debut over 1,600m at Newmarket back in April. Since then, she has won all four starts, including both the 2,400m G1 Irish Oaks and 2,371m G1 Yorkshire Oaks. Her latest win at York was the first time she has taken on her elders and she took full advantage of the weight allowance. Once again, the race conditions mean she gets a healthy allowance for both her sex and age and that should ensure she is extremely competitive.
Andre Fabre is looking to train his eighth winner of this historic prize and his best chance looks to be with the improving WALDGEIST. Having lost his way a little last autumn, the 4YO made a fairly uninspiring reappearance over 2,000m at ParisLongchamp in April on heavy ground. Since then, he hasn’t looked backed, recording four consecutive victories, including the last two at G1 and G2 level over this distance. He lines up in Paris in the form of his life and it would be no surprise if he could re-write the record books for his trainer. Last time out in the 2,400m G2 Prix Foy, he had stablemates TALISMANIC and CLOTH OF STARS behind him and there is no logical reason to expect them to reverse that form.
TALISMANIC has plenty of smart form, with his biggest win to date coming in last year’s G1 Breeders' Cup Turf over 2,400m. He has the class to get involved, but was brushed aside by WALDGEIST last time and may have to settle for the minor placings.
Aidan O’Brien won this prize two years ago with FOUND and saddles 2,905m G1 St. Leger Stakes winner KEW GARDENS in an attempt to win the race for a third time. The son of GALILEO won a G1 over this course and distance back in July and is another who can go well. Whether he has the class to beat the likes of ENABLE and SEA OF CLASS has to be a doubt, though.
The 2,100m G1 Prix du Jockey Club winner STUDY OF MAN steps up to 2,400m for the first time in his career. He has been well-beaten in both starts since winning that prize and has something to prove now.
SELECTIONS: 10. ENABLE, 19. SEA OF CLASS, 5. WALDGEIST, 13. KEW GARDENS & 7. TALISMANIC
S1-2 Prix de l'Opera
The previous three runnings of the G1 Prix de l’Opera run over 2,000m have been won by British or Irish challengers, with COVERT LOVE, SPEEDY BOARDING and RHODODENDRON claiming the prize. It’s a run of form that could well be boosted again, with the Charlie Appleby-trained WILD ILLUSION likely to go off favourite as Godolphin bid for their first victory in the race. The 3YO landed the 1,979m G1 Nassau Stakes when last seen, getting the better of URBAN FOX who had already proved her G1 credentials when claiming the G1 Pretty Polly Stakes over the same distance. That was her second G1 victory after some near misses, with the first coming at this meeting 12 months ago in the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac over 1,600m.
Winning in France shows she will have no trouble making the short trip over the water, but rival MAGIC WAND, trained by Aidan O’Brien, also boasts good form across the Channel. Just last month she was beaten by the smallest of margins when finishing second behind favourite KITESURF in the G1 Prix Vermeille over 2,400m. She led in the final furlong that day before eventually losing the lead under pressure in the final strides, and the drop back to 2,000m is definitely worth a try. The 3YO has already beaten WILD ILLUSION this season, coming home in front in the 2,392m G2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot and both will be expecting to be battling for the win in the final stages.
Local fans will be cheering for WITH YOU, with Freddy Head’s charge the most likely chance of a French winner, having performed so well already this season. She finished third behind the very talented ALPHA CENTAURI in the G1 Jacques le Marois at Deauville over 1,600m in August. Although well beaten that day, she does bring G1-winning form to the table, having upset some talented British and Irish raiders in July when winning the Prix Rothschild over the same trip. She was also only beaten by a short head when finishing second to LAURENS in the 2,000m G1 Prix Saint-Alary in May and is likely to fill the final place on the podium.
The aforementioned URBAN FOX reappears and should run well. However, she’s found one too good on her previous two appearances and there’s no reason to believe she can reverse the form. A fourth-placed finish is probably the best connections can hope for. However, the remainders of the field look up against it when it comes to threatening the places.
CASTELLAR won a G3 at Saint Cloud over 2,100m in May, getting the better of a heavily backed LUMINATE who finished second before being demoted to fifth. That performance earned her a shot at G1 company, but she finished a well beaten 10th of 13 in the G1 Prix de Diane over 2,100m which is cause for concern here. She bounced back with a G2 victory at Deauville over the same distance when last seen, but she is likely to come up short back up in grade once again.
HOMERIQUE finished third in the aforementioned G1 Prix de Diane, although she was well-beaten in the G1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp over 1,600m on her last start, and has only won at G3 level so far.
ATHENA and DESERT DIAMOND look the best of the rest but are unlikely to challenge.
SELECTIONS: 11. WILD ILLUSION, 16. MAGIC WAND, 15. WITH YOU, 1. URBAN FOX & 8. CASTELLAR
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 11. WILD ILLUSION
Selections – 16. MAGIC WAND, 15. WITH YOU, 1. URBAN FOX & 8. CASTELLAR
S1-3: Banker – 1. BATTAASH
Selections – 13. MABS CROSS, 2. CITY LIGHT, 16. SOLDIER'S CALL & 12. TANTHEEM
S1-3 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp
Chantilly was the scene of BATTAASH's four-length romp in the 1,000m G1 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp last year and Charles Hills' top sprinter will be a short price to successfully defend his crown at ParisLongchamp. A breathtaking win in the 1,000m G2 King George Stakes at Goodwood, where he again stretched clear by four lengths, confirmed him as the favourite for the 1,000m G1 Nunthorpe Stakes at York but he failed to follow up. With just three weeks between those two runs, that top-level test may have just come a bit too soon for him and he should now be fully prepared after well over a month off the track. He's not proving to be the most reliable type but, on his day, he has an unrivalled turn of foot and remains the one they all have to beat.
MABS CROSS, second to ALPHA DELPHINI by the slimmest of margins in the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes, is a filly heading in the right direction. Just a 4YO with 12 runs under her belt, she's been placed in two of sprinting's most prestigious races, the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes and the 1,000m G1 King's Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot. She may still be sharpening her skills and this race represents an opportunity to sign off in style before challenging at the top table once again next season.
The winner of the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes, ALPHA DELPHINI, is certainly performing at his peak as a 7YO and will be trying to emulate his half-brother, TANGERINE TREES, who won this race in 2011. The concern is whether he's good enough to make it back to back G1 victories if BATTAASH brings his A-game, while he's also only won just one of his eight starts in Group company and may be left fighting it out for the places.
France's hopes look to rest largely with CITY LIGHT and TANTHEEM. After over 30 years with a licence, Stephane Wattel is still chasing his first G1 win after an agonizingly close second for CITY LIGHT in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes over 1,200m at Royal Ascot this year. His stable star is versatile, having won at both 1,000m and 1,600m, and on varying ground conditions, which demonstrates how consistent and genuine a horse he is. Asking the son of SIYOUNI to out-pace turf racing's speediest sprinters over a quick 1,000m may be too hard a task, but he's very reliable and shouldn’t be far away.
Freddy Head’s TANTHEEM beat CITY LIGHT last time out in a G3 over course and distance last time, his first start at ParisLongchamp. Although he will have to step up to win this, he is on a hat-trick and it’s a positive that he’s unbeaten at the track.
The other one to consider, particularly given the generous weight allowance for 2YOs, is SOLDIER'S CALL. He blitzed his rivals in the 1,003m G2 Flying Childers Stakes at Doncaster and could be the next big thing in the sprinting division. On similar ground and over the same course and distance in the G3 Prix d'Arenberg at Chantilly last month, he posted a faster time than MARSHA did when winning this in 2016 and has to be taken seriously.
Karl Burke’s HAVANA GREY has won twice over 1,000m at the Curragh this season, including a weak renewal of the G1 Flying Five Stakes last month. He is a talented horse, but the yard has been a bit quiet lately which is a concern.
SELECTIONS: 1. BATTAASH, 13. MABS CROSS, 2. CITY LIGHT, 16. SOLDIER'S CALL & 12. TANTHEEM
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 1. BATTAASH, 13. MABS CROSS & 2. CITY LIGHT
S1-4: Multiple – 15. POLYDREAM, 3. SIR DANCEALOT & 11. GUSTAV KLIMT
S1-5: Multiple – 3. MIRACLE DES AIGLES, 2. REPERCUSSION & 1. BAYOUN
S1-4 Prix de la Foret
There aren’t many G1 contests over 1,400m in Europe, so the Prix de la Foret is a perfect race for those horses that thrive over this specialist distance. British-trained horses have won three of the last four renewals, but they may struggle to land it this time as hot favourite POLYDREAM is surely going to be very hard to beat. Freddy Head has long had a love affair with this race, thanks to his five wins as a jockey and two as a trainer, most recently with MOONLIGHT CLOUD in 2013. His other success as a handler was with the brilliant GOLDIKOVA back in 2010, who took this prize before going on to win a historic third straight G1 Breeders’ Cup Mile a month later. Head has always done well with fillies and POLYDREAM looks another star in the making. The 3YO disappointed on her reappearance in the 1,600m G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches, finishing last of the 14 runners. However, she bounced back to win a G3 over the same course and distance as Sunday’s race a few weeks later and then took the G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest over 1,300m at Deauville in early August. She’s absolutely top class and because she’s a 3YO filly she receives plenty of weight from her elders.
JAMES GARFIELD is on a recovery mission after sinking in the mud at Haydock in the G1 Sprint Cup over 1,200m early last month. Prior to that he was just half a length behind POLYDREAM in the aforementioned G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville, so a return to that form should see him go close. The drier ground in Paris will definitely help, although he’s been a little inconsistent this season and may just get found out at the top level.
This distance is ideal for David Elsworth’s SIR DANCEALOT who has won his last four over 1,400m, including two G2 prizes. He was another who wasn’t suited by the conditions at Haydock in the 1,200m G1 Sprint Cup, but he can be forgiven for that and will surely go better back over 1,400m on a better surface. Gerald Mosse takes the ride and he will need luck in running because the son of SIR PRANCEALOT is always dropped in to come with a fast, late run. He travels well in his races and has an electric burst of speed – it’s just whether he can cope with proven G1 performer POLYDREAM.
There aren’t many European G1 prizes missing from Aidan O’Brien’s CV, but this is one. GUSTAV KLIMT is his only entry this year and it must be said that it’s been a disappointing campaign for the GALILEO colt who was strongly fancied for the 1,600m G1 2000 Guineas Stakes back in May. He hasn’t managed to register a win since his reappearance over 1,400m in a Listed race at Leopardstown in April, but he did seem to be coming back to form when third in the G1 Sprint Cup over 1,200m last month. He’s not one you could place maximum trust in, but now that O’Brien’s horses are running better he can’t be ignored.
Apart from POLYDREAM, the rest of the home contingents look to have a tough task. Andre Fabre’s INNS OF COURT could sneak into the top four or five after finishing a close third in a G3 over course and distance last month. That was an improved effort, although he will have to reverse the form with TORNIBUSH who won that prize.
If William Haggas wins the Arc with SEA OF CLASS, his ONE MASTER could be the perfect ending to an incredible day. She won a 1,491m G3 event at Tipperary back in August and realistically she’ll need to improve quite significantly to trouble the leaders here.
SELECTIONS: 15. POLYDREAM, 3. SIR DANCEALOT, 11. GUSTAV KLIMT, 5. INNS OF COURT & 1. TORNIBUSH
S1-5 Grand Handicap des Flyers
The Grand Handicap des Flyers rounds off the card at ParisLongchamp and it looks a very tricky puzzle to solve. Trainer Corine Barande-Barbe enjoyed plenty of success at this meeting in the past with CIRRUS DES AIGLES. Her former stable star won the G2 Prix Dollar three times during his glittering career and the Chantilly-based trainer looks to hold strong claims of taking this 1,400m prize with MIRACLE DES AIGLES. The 5YO gelding steps back into handicap company having run in a Listed contest over 1,650m at Craon on his last start. He looked to have bumped into a few smart types that day and should feel more at home back at this level. Prior to that, the son of SIYOUNI finished a good third to CRAZY HORSE over 1,600m at Chantilly, which looks some of the strongest form on offer, with the winner finishing second in a G3 at the end of last month. The only concern might be the step back in trip to 1,400m, with his last win over the distance coming over a year ago.
His chief challenge could come from REPERCUSSION. The son of MANDURO used to be trained by Charlie Fellowes in the GB, having started his career under the care of Andre Fabre, but he’s moved back home where he now represents Gavin Hernon. He won twice during his two years at the Fellowes yard and ran well in a number of competitive handicaps, including a very good fifth in the 1,600m ultra-competitive Handicap at the start of the season. The 5YO struggled on his French debut over 1,600m, but his win at Chantilly over 1,300m was much more like it and a repeat would put him in the frame.
BAYOUN comes into this race on the back of four consecutive wins this season. Three of those were in lesser races than this, but he did win a competitive-looking handicap at this course over 1,600m on his last start. Prior to missing the whole of the 2017 season, he was fourth in a Listed contest at Toulouse over 1,600m, which looks to be some of the stronger form on show. Thierry Lemer’s 5YO is clearly in great form and must come into the reckoning if he can continue the improvement he has shown this term.
TROIZILET’s 1,400m G3 win must put him in contention here. He had the likes of former G1 winner GORDON LORD BYRON behind him that day and if he turns up in similar form again here, he’s sure to go well.
One of the more interesting contenders could be ON THE SEA who has some handy pieces of form to his name. Nicolas Caullery’s 4YO has had a busy campaign, running seven times, with his best performance coming in a competitive handicap on the polytrack at Deauville over 1,300m. He’s one of the most well-bred contenders in the race and his 2½ length defeat in a G3 at ParisLongchamp over 1,400m is some of the stronger form on offer here.
Handicap-specialist ORANGEFIELD, is a risky proposition based on his recent form, while MILLFIELD hasn’t won in over a year.
SELECTIONS: 3. MIRACLE DES AIGLES, 2. REPERCUSSION, 1. BAYOUN, 7. ON THE SEA & 5. TROIZILET
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