Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

Expert Column for British Champions Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)

S1-1     British Champions Long Distance Cup

STRADIVARIUS will be a hot favourite when he lines up in the G2 British Champions Long Distance Cup over 3,190m. Successive wins in the G2 Yorkshire Cup (2,771m), G1 Gold Cup (3,991m), G1 Goodwood Cup (3,200m) and G2 Lonsdale Cup (3,251m) have earned his connections a cool £1million bonus already this season, and there is every chance he will cap off the season in perfect style. Crowd favourite Frankie Dettori once again takes the ride having ridden him in all bar one of those four aforementioned victories and he will be hoping to land this race for the fourth time. STRADIVARIUS may have won all four starts so far this season, but the truth is that he has been less impressive each time he has raced. All four of those victories have also come on decent fast ground so the torrential rain that has hit Ascot this week is another huge concern. He has faced ground with the word ‘soft’ in the going description on four starts in his career to date and has been beaten on all four occasions.

Therefore, as a warm favourite he looks opposable and Aidan O’Brien’s FLAG OF HONOUR looks the one most likely to give STRADIVARIUS something to think about after being supplemented for the race by connections earlier this week. The 3YO son of GALILEO stormed to victory in the G1 Irish St. Leger over 2,800m at the Curragh in September, comfortably getting the better of LATROBE. That form, along with G2 and G3 victories over the same course and distance, put him in the picture for this contest, though it’s an unknown whether he will see out this trip. He certainly didn’t seem to be stopping when landing the G1 Irish St. Leger over 2,800m last time though and he has form on bad ground.

As ever, Irish master trainer O’Brien has more than one card to play and it would be no surprise to see his totally unexposed SIR EREC run a really nice race despite his lack of experience. The 3YO has only been seen four times, winning each of his previous two appearances, albeit in Maiden and Listed company, at the Curragh over 2,000m and Limerick over 2,500m. He is clearly well thought of and shouldn’t be totally discounted despite stepping up in class, although he’s probably one for the future.

The stable’s other runner, CYPRESS CREEK, relished the step up to this 3,190m trip when winning at Naas last month having become a little disappointing over shorter distances previously. All the recent rain is a slight negative for him, though, as his best form is on a decent surface.

Fellow Irish trainer Willie Mullins takes aim with THOMAS HOBSON, who arrives in winning form having landed the G2 Doncaster Cup over 3,579m last month. However, he was well beaten by FLAG OF HONOUR in the G3 Irish St. Leger Trial and it will be a big ask to reverse those placings here. But with his stable in such sparkling form and his proven ability on soft ground, it is not totally impossible.

DESERT SKYLINE has been beaten a combined 73 lengths behind STRADIVARIUS in four appearances this season and appears to have somewhat lost his way.

SELECTIONS: 6. FLAG OF HONOUR, 3. STRADIVARIUS, 4. THOMAS HOBSON & 7. SIR EREC

S1-2     British Champions Sprint Stakes

The British Champions Day record books could be broken this year, as THE TIN MAN bids to become the first horse to win the same race at Ascot’s season finale twice. James Fanshawe’s speedster landed the G1 1,200m British Champions Sprint Stakes back in 2016 and heads into this year’s renewal in great form. While he doesn’t come from a soft ground pedigree being a son of EQUIANO, he handled the heavy going at Haydock well to land his third G1 victory and shouldn’t have too much trouble coping with soft ground at Ascot. A number of the horses he beat that day are looking for revenge here but there’s little to say that the form will be reversed. He was a touch disappointing when finishing just fifth in this race 12 months ago, but he was given plenty to do that day in a race which lacked tempo and still looks the one to beat this year.

BRANDO chased home THE TIN MAN at Haydock on his last start and was only getting closer as they crossed the line. That was the second time he’s finished runner-up at the highest level this term, highlighting both his consistency and ability. The son of PIVOTAL goes well in soft conditions and another big run is expected.

TASLEET, second to LIBRISA BREEZE in this race last year, is another who goes well on soft ground, though he’d have to improve on his eighth in the G1 Sprint Cup at Haydock to get involved. He was maybe a little unlucky not to finish closer that day, when a gap closed up on him heading into the final furlong, and he seemed a bit keen in the early stages. There’s reason to believe he can bounce back but others are preferred.

PROJECTION and SPEAK IN COLOURS are two runners at bigger prices that could fill the places. The former was fifth in the 1,200m G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at the Royal meeting and won the G3 Bengough Stakes over course and distance on his last start. On all known form, he needs a career best to get involved here but, as a hold up horse, his lack of winning doesn’t always tell the full story and his ability to travel well on bad ground could mean he sneaks a place. SPEAK IN COLOURS is a bit more of an unknown quantity. With just eight career starts under his belt and only five since moving to Joseph O’Brien from Marco Botti, the grey son of EXCELEBRATION could be yet to show his best. He won over course and distance on soft ground as a 2YO and built on that to win a G3 contest over 1,200m at the Curragh this season. Stamina didn’t look to be an issue when finishing seventh at Haydock last time out, but he looked a little flat-footed in the closing stages.

The ground will also suit LIBRISA BREEZE. Despite coming into this race as last year’s winner, he’s slumped to four straight defeats and only placed in one of his starts this season. If he bounces back to form then he’ll play a leading role, but he can’t be trusted on the basis of his performances so far this term.

Lastly, and also towards the top of the pile if running to his best, is HARRY ANGEL. Having started the season in good style with a win under a penalty in a G2 at York over this trip, Clive Cox’s stable star has finished out of the frame in his two starts since. Fairly excused for being well-beaten in the G1 1,200m Diamond Jubilee Stakes after rearing up and injuring himself at the start, HARRY ANGEL had every chance to bounce back at Haydock but could only finish sixth. On his day, he’s a class act with the ability to win a race like this, but it’s not been his season so far and it requires a leap of faith to side with him once more.

SELECTIONS: 12. THE TIN MAN, 2. BRANDO, 11. TASLEET, 14. SPEAK IN COLOURS & 8. PROJECTION

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:   
Banker – 12. THE TIN MAN
Selections – 2. BRANDO, 11. TASLEET, 14. SPEAK IN COLOURS & 8. PROJECTION

S1-3:   
Banker – 1. CORONET
Selections – 8. LAH TI DAR, 4. KITESURF, 3. HYDRANGEA & 10. PILASTER

S1-3     British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes 

Since the race returned to Ascot in 2011, the G1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, run over 2,392m, has seen just one winning favourite. The market for this year’s renewal will be headed by John Gosden’s LAH TI DAR, who will be having just the fifth run of her career. Two impressive victories over 2,000m at Newbury and Newmarket catapulted the daughter of DAR RE MI into favouritism for the G1 Epsom Oaks, but an injury meant she never took her chance. Then, despite a 109 day lay-off, she showed no ill effects when blitzing the field in a Listed contest at York over 2,371m. Her only defeat came at the hands of KEW GARDENS in the G1 2,905m St. Leger Stakes at Doncaster on her most recent start, where a lack of experience perhaps cost her. She lost little in defeat that day though and is very much the one to beat here, but there have to be question marks about the ground, given this will be softest she’s ever encountered. 

Gosden looks to hold a particularly strong hand in the race with LAH TI DAR’s stablemate CORONET another leading contender for this G1 prize. The 4YO has enjoyed another consistent campaign, finishing in the first three on all four of her starts. She brings some really strong form into the race, particularly her second-place finishes behind WALDGEIST at Saint-Cloud and to SEA OF CLASS at York over 2,400m and 2,371m respectively. Those horses finished fourth and second in G1 2,400m Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe earlier this month, and a repeat performance from CORONET would see her go close. This race has always been the target and she looks primed for a bold showing.

Punters should always take note whenever French trainer Andre Fabre brings a horse over to the GB and he saddles recent G1 winner KITESURF here. The Godolphin-owned 4YO is in the form of her life after back-to-back Group wins at Deauville and ParisLongchamp over 2,500m and 2,400m respectively. Fabre’s runner is clearly improving and while another step up is required to take this, if anyone can eke out that required improvement, it’s the Frenchman.

Last year’s winner HYDRANGEA, who looks the pick of Aidan O’Brien’s sextet of runners, has to enter considerations. She has struggled to reproduce her form of last season, which saw her win two G1s, once at Leopardstown and also at Ascot. Her win in this race twelve months ago is significant because it was on a similar surface to what she’ll experience this year and a repeat effort would see her go close. She’s only raced on good-to-firm ground this year and it’s highly plausible that a return to a softer surface is what her all-conquering connections have been waiting for.

Like LAH TI DAR, PILASTER is fairly lightly-raced considering she is nearing the end of her second season in training. Having run just once as a 2YO, the daughter of NATHANIEL has progressed tremendously this season, especially as her season began with two novice stakes races on the polytrack at Chelmsford over 2,000m and Kempton over 2,399m. She then stepped up markedly to take the G2 company at Glorious Goodwood over 2,800m, before finishing a slightly disappointing third behind GOD GIVEN in the G2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster over 2,905m. This will be the softest ground she has encountered in her career, but her breeding suggests she should be fine on it, while her Goodwood win should have put to bed any concerns over her stamina.

O’Brien has a number entered in the race, with MAGICAL looking the best of the rest. The daughter of GALILEO had some good form on a softer surface in her debut season, but hasn’t really gone on since, and while she ran okay in the G1 2,400m Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on her last start, a big step up is needed.

GOD GIVEN’s win in the G2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster was her best performance to date, but she might just find a few too good here.

SELECTIONS: 1. CORONET, 8. LAH TI DAR, 4. KITESURF, 3. HYDRANGEA & 10. PILASTER

S1-4     Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

Ascot’s Queen Elizabeth II Stakes has a glittering roll of honour, with a number of top-class 1,600m horses taking this G1 prize. The likes of EXCELEBRATION, MINDING and of course the mighty FRANKEL have taken this race in recent years, and while this year’s renewal might not have a stand-out contender, there are a number of interesting sub-plots.

John Gosden took this race for a third time last year with PERSUASIVE and his ROARING LION looks to hold strong claims of making it back-to-back successes for his trainer. The son of KITTEN’S JOY had been scheduled to run in the following G1 1,993m Champion Stakes, but the soft ground has meant connections have rerouted the 3YO here instead. Gosden’s runner has enjoyed a standout campaign, particularly over 2,000m where he has notched up three G1 wins in succession, with his three-length victory in the International Stakes at York the pick. He hasn’t run over this trip since the G1 1,600m 2000 Guineas Stakes at Newmarket and there have to be doubts as to whether this trip will see him at his best, while this will also be the softest ground he has ever encountered. Both of these factors could leave ROARING LION a touch vulnerable against some experienced campaigners at this distance.

French raiders took the race in 2014 and 2015 and the Carlos Laffon-Parias-trained RECOLETOS looks a strong candidate to make it three wins in five years. Since running at this meeting a year ago in the G1 1,993m Champion Stakes, the 4YO has largely been campaigned over 1,600m, where he has enjoyed plenty of success including two G1 wins. Conditions look ideal for the son of WHIPPER, with some of his best form coming on soft ground, including a very good second to wonder mare ALPHA CENTAURI in the G1 1,600m Jacques le Marois at Deauville in August. Laffon-Parias’ runner looks sure to go well as he bids to give jockey Olivier Peslier a third win in the race.

Another horse who will be ideally suited by the underfoot conditions is David O’Meara’s LORD GLITTERS. The grey gelding has gone from strength-to-strength since his victory in the 1,600m Balmoral Handicap on this card twelve months ago. Well-backed that day, the 5YO was patiently ridden before getting up late and he’s run well in a number of Group races since. LORD GLITTERS is clearly at home at Ascot with his form figures at the track reading 2-1-2-2, and he hasn’t finished outside of the first two on ground with soft in the description since joining the O’Meara yard. He hasn’t really had his ideal conditions since the 1,600m Handicap company at the start of the season, where he lost nothing in defeat giving 8lbs to ADDEYBB. O’Meara’s runner should be primed for a bold showing with conditions firmly in his favour.

LAURENS’ performances this season have seen her become a fans’ favourite. The 3YO has perhaps not quite got the credit she has deserved despite winning four G1s over a variety of distances. She’s incredibly tough and receives a handy weight-allowance, but there must be a suspicion that turning her out after just 14 days might not see her at her absolute peak.

The rainfall at the Berkshire track is likely to be music to the ears of the connections of ADDEYBB. William Haggas’ 4YO hasn’t been since finishing eighth in the G1 1,600m Lockinge Stakes at Newbury in May where he clearly struggled on the fast ground. He came into that race on the back of two impressive wins in a G2 at Sandown and in the ultra-competitive Handicap company at Doncaster, demonstrating his effectiveness on soft ground. Conditions have very much come right for ADDEYBB and he’s entitled to plenty of respect, though it’s hard to see him quite having the quality to actually win.

CENTURY DREAM could be the one to fill the final place. He’s enjoyed a solid season with his G3 1,600m Diomed Stakes win the highlight, while he showed his liking for these conditions with a neck victory over course and distance in the Listed Paradise Stakes. As well as that run, he has plenty of good form on a softer surface and he should be thereabouts in the closing stages.

SELECTIONS: 7. RECOLETOS, 11. ROARING LION, 6. LORD GLITTERS, 1. ADDEYBB & 3. CENTURY DREAM

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4:   
Banker – 7. RECOLETOS
Selections – 11. ROARING LION, 6. LORD GLITTERS, 1. ADDEYBB & 3. CENTURY DREAM

S1-5:   
Banker – 2. CRACKSMAN
Selections – 3. CRYSTAL OCEAN, 5. MONARCHS GLEN, 1. CAPRI & 8. VERBAL DEXTERITY

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 7. RECOLETOS, 11. ROARING LION & 6. LORD GLITTERS
S1-5: Multiple – 2. CRACKSMAN, 3. CRYSTAL OCEAN & 5. MONARCHS GLEN
S1-6: Multiple – 1. FLAMING SPEAR, 11. RAISING SAND & 10. SOUTH SEAS

S1-5     Champion Stakes

Trainer John Gosden has had the most amazing season. STRADIVARIUS has been outstanding in the long distance division, while it was an incredible training feat to get ENABLE to win back-to-back the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe recently after such a difficult preparation. Gosden is virtually assured of landing his third champion trainer title on Saturday and he has a very strong chance of registering back-to-back victories in the meeting’s highlight, the 1,993m G1 Champion Stakes.

CRACKSMAN was a hugely impressive winner of this race 12 months ago, reveling in the soft ground to obliterate his rivals by seven lengths. The son of FRANKEL reappeared in the G1 Prix Ganay over 2,100m at ParisLongchamp in April and his four length victory there left him with the world at his hooves. However, things have gone a little wayward since. Although winning the 2,405m G1 Coronation Cup at Epsom, he found it very hard work to see off SALOUEN and was then beaten by POET’S WORD in the G1 1,993m Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. He appeared to race lazily that day and it is interesting that connections have now opted to introduce some headgear in order to sharpen him up.  The ground was also deemed too quick for him at Ascot and Gosden has wisely waited for the rain to arrive, which fell in dramatic style last weekend. The 4YO missed a second successive trip to the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in Paris because the ground wasn’t deemed soft enough and arrives here a fresh horse. The severe downpours would have been music to the ears of CRACKSMAN’s connections and ultimately resulted in stablemate ROARING LION being diverted to the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

ROARING LION’s absence has made the reigning champion’s task much easier, although he still has a big local threat from Newmarket in the shape of CRYSTAL OCEAN. Sir Michael Stoute’s 4YO has never finished outside the first three in 11 career starts and there was certainly no disgrace in finishing second behind ENABLE in a 2,399m G3 at Kempton last month. Prior to that he was a close second to stablemate POET’S WORD in the G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2,392m. This son of SEA THE STARS is the highest rated horse in the line-up and should be fine on the ground, but the drop back to 1,993m isn’t ideal.

It is amazing to think that Aidan O’Brien is yet to win this race and his best chance of registering a first success looks to be CAPRI, although he’s another who would prefer a longer trip. Last year’s 2,905m G1 St. Leger Stakes winner, who had CRYSTAL OCEAN behind in second that day, reappeared with a 2,000m G3 success at Naas in April. He was then well beaten in the 2,400m G2 Prix Foy at ParisLongchamp before finishing a respectable fifth behind ENABLE in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe over the same course and distance. The soft ground will help bring out his stamina, but there has to be a worry as to whether he’d have enough speed to trouble the two leading contenders.

O’Brien also saddles RHODODENDRON who has somewhat lost her way since winning the G1 1,600m Lockinge Stakes at Newbury back in May. She has looked a shadow of herself in five starts since and it requires a huge leap of faith to support her again here. One horse yet to show much in a couple of starts this season is Jim Bolger’s VERBAL DEXTERITY who was a talented 2YO. This will be the first time he has encountered his favoured soft ground though, so it would be no surprise to see him go well at a massive price.

Another one with minor claims is MONARCHS GLEN. He hasn’t been seen since winning at Royal Ascot back in June and has won on this soft surface in the past. He is lightly raced and still relatively unexposed but has to step up on what he has done on the racecourse to date. However, he has always been held in high-regard and could easily outrun his odds.

SELECTIONS: 2. CRACKSMAN, 3. CRYSTAL OCEAN, 5. MONARCHS GLEN, 1. CAPRI & 8. VERBAL DEXTERITY

S1-6     Balmoral Handicap Stakes

The final race on the British Champions Day card is the 1,600m Balmoral Handicap Stakes with a wide-open looking field of 20 runners. Whether this year’s renewal can match the quality of last season remains to be seen, with the first and fourth home 12 months ago going on to fill the first two places in this year’s G1 1,600m Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. There may be no ACCIDENTAL AGENT or LORD GLITTERS in the line-up this year, but it still remains a quality contest with decent prize money up for grabs.

The most obvious starting point is with recent 1,400m soft ground course winner RAISING SAND who will be tough to beat if in the same mood here. Jamie Osborne’s 6YO had previously run well without getting his head in front in both the 1,600m Royal Hunt Cup at this venue back in June as well as the 1,800m Cambridgeshire Handicap at Newmarket. The ground was too quick for him on both of those occasions and he looks sure to be at home in conditions here. It is just a question of whether he is in the same form and can defy a slight hike in the weights.

FLAMING SPEAR has looked tailormade for this contest ever since he made an eye-catching reappearance when fifth in the 1,600m Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot back in June. His three starts since have all been over 1,400m and while he was again caught out by the fast ground back at this venue in July he was an impressive winner at Glorious Goodwood in August. Last time out he was given far too much to do out the back of the field and flew home to finish fifth behind RAISING SAND. Conditions are once again perfect and the combination of the step back up to 1,600m and the return of regular jockey Robert Winston to the saddle, I expect the pair to go close.

Connections of KYNREN have had a somewhat frustrating season as their 4YO has consistently run well in six starts without winning. He again gets the soft ground which saw him run so well at Doncaster over this 1,600m trip on his seasonal reappearance but is higher in the weights now and again may find a couple too good.

The more rain that falls the better the chance John Quinn’s SAFE VOYAGE will have as he looked good in testing conditions when winning over 1,434m at Haydock back in April. He was again impressive on a soft ground on his only other start this season at Galway back in August and obviously goes well fresh. If he can cope with another slight rise in the weights he can go close, although all his best form comes over 1,400m.

Andrew Balding has had another fine season and runs two who will both like the ground. ZWAYYAN seems most at home when the mud is flying and is ridden by Jason Watson, the young star of the Flat season. He rarely runs a bad race and it would be no surprise to see him in the mix.

At much bigger odds, his stablemate SOUTH SEAS was considered G1 class as a 2YO but has somewhat lost his way. A soft surface should bring out the best in him and it would be no surprise to see him go well.

Ryan Moore is an interesting booking for VIA VIA who is looking to break a nine-race losing streak that dates back to March 2017. He will be happy in the conditions and can go well if reproducing his great run when third in the 1,800m Cambridgeshire last time out.

Lastly, it’s hard to totally ignore the chances of ARGENTELLO. Though he has to shoulder a penalty for an impressive win over 1,600m at Kempton earlier this week, and this is a big step up in class, he’s an improving horse representing the GB’s number one trainer, John Gosden.

SELECTIONS: 1. FLAMING SPEAR, 11. RAISING SAND, 10. SOUTH SEAS, 7. SAFE VOYAGE & 12. VIA VIA

Disclaimer:

The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.

HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.