 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Dubai Super Saturday (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Mahab Al Shimaal
A new 1,200m dirt track record was set at Meydan when JORDAN SPORT blasted out of the gates, led all the way and stretched on to land last year’s G3 Mahab Al Shimaal by seven lengths. Last year’s renewal emphasised how hard it can be to make up ground on the surface, so it can pay to side with front-running horses. After three wins in a row, LAVASPIN looks one of the most progressive horses in the field and also likes to race prominently. The 5YO was away quickly when scoring his hat-trick over course and distance last time out and has to be on the shortlist. The question mark is whether he will bump into one with a bit more class, as this will be his first run outside of handicap company.
At the other end of the spectrum with plenty of experience in Group class is COMICAS. The 6YO was second in the 2017 G1 1,200m Dubai Golden Shaheen and landed the G3 Dubawi Stakes over 1,200m in January 2018 before disappointing in this last year. He’s since moved to Australia, where he’s finished down the field in starts at Caulfield and Flemington, but could easily bounce back in this sort of race. The Charlie Appleby-trained gelding was a hot favourite to land this contest 12 months ago, but blew his chances from the start and could finish closer if he’s on his game.
THAMMIN’s recent win may have only come in a mediocre-looking field at Jebel Ali but he couldn’t have won in much better style. The eye-catching grey son of DARK ANGEL sat behind the leaders before coming through powerfully to score by four lengths over the minimum 1,000m trip. That was also his first start on the dirt, while he was also twice a winner on the all-weather in the GB. The step up to 1,200m should pose no problems and he looks like one of the main players.
Argentinian speedster TATO KEY chased home DRAFTED in the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint in January and both are back in contention here. While DRAFTED will be well fancied based on that performance, the second was having his first start since moving to Dubai from Argentina and could improve plenty. He was less than a length behind that day and it would be no surprise to see him reverse that form.
SWITZERLAND would have to show marked improvement on runs behind DRAFTED and LAVASPIN since moving over from America to get involved. It took the son of SPEIGHTSTOWN eight attempts to break his maiden tag in the US, and even though he’s progressed to win a pair of G3 since, others are preferred.
Swedish galloper I KIRK lit up Scandinavia with nine wins from 13 starts, and wasted no time in getting his career in Dubai off to a fast start by winning a handicap over course and distance in January. He had all of his rivals beat coming round the home bend and, given it was his first start since July, the way in which he finished the race to win by over three lengths was very impressive. This will be much tougher, but he’s an interesting competitor and shouldn’t be far away.
SELECTIONS: 6. THAMMIN, 10. TATO KEY, 8. DRAFTED, 9. I KIRK & 3. COMICAS
S1-2 Al Bastakiya
Godolphin last won the Listed Al Bastakiya in 2013 with SECRET NUMBER and they look set to be double handed in this year’s renewal. SECRET NUMBER was trained by Saeed bin Suroor and in ESTIHDAAF, the GB-based trainer has a strong chance of winning the 1,900m contest again. The addition of a visor seemed to be the catalyst for the son of ARCH on his last start, with the 3YO an emphatic five-and-a-half length winner of the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas over 1,600m. Bin Suroor’s runner steps up in distance to 1,900m here and based on his performance last time, as well his close second in the trial for this race the time before, the extra distance should suit.
In the same ownership as ESTIHDAAF, Charlie Appleby’s DIVINE IMAGE is another who comes into this on the back of a victory on her last start. She is far less experienced than ESTIHDAAF, having had just three runs in her life, though she has won two of them. DIVINE IMAGE blew the start on her penultimate outing in the Listed UAE 1000 Guineas over 1,600m, missing the break by four or five lengths, and did well to finish a distant second. She was well backed in the G3 UAE Oaks over 1,900m on her last start and though she was made to work, she held on by a neck. The form of that win has to be questioned, however, with the second and third going off at 40/1 and her antics in the stalls beforehand make her a risky proposition.
Frankie Dettori has only had a small handful of rides in the GB and US over the winter and travels to Dubai for this first time in 2019 to ride Kenneth McPeek’s GRECKO. The 3YO will be having just the fourth start of his career and his second for McPeek having moved to the American’s stable earlier this year. He was a G1 winner in Argentina over 1,600m and connections must have been fairly happy with his run over 1,900m last time, where he finished fourth behind the likes of ESTIHDAAF. GRECKO carried a big weight that day and was running for the first time in over 200 days, so can be expected to be much fitter this time around. The booking of Dettori catches the eye and although he’s inexperienced, he’s a G1 winner and has to come into consideration.
The trial for this race was won by MANGUZI who had both GRECKO and ESTIHDAAF behind him. Ali Rashid Al Rayhi’s contender was well beaten by WALKING THUNDER on his first start at Meydan over 1,600m, but improved significantly to win the Al Bastakiya Trial and that should have put him spot on for this. If that race is anything to go by, there is plenty more improvement to come, but critics will point to the fact that he had the run of the race that day given his handy draw. He showed decent speed to beat some useful rivals, but this looks a tougher assignment and he might just find a few too good.
You’d have to worry about a lack of experience for SUPERIOR having had just two career starts, while AL SHAMKHAH has switched stables after some slightly underwhelming efforts in better company than his debut win.
Instead, it might be worth taking a chance on AL HAYETTE rounding off the places. The daughter of UNION RAGS has been well-campaigned in Meydan, running five times so far and although she has been winning lesser contests than this, she ran well on her last start behind DIVINE IMAGE. She stayed on well at the finish showing that this 1,900m trip is to her liking and she could go well at bigger odds with her fillies’ weight allowance.
SELECTIONS: 13. ESTIHDAAF, 3. DIVINE IMAGE, 12. MANGUZI, 10. GRECKO & 6. AL HAYETTE
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 13. ESTIHDAAF
Selections – 3. DIVINE IMAGE, 12. MANGUZI, 10. GRECKO & 6. AL HAYETTE
S1-3: Banker – 9. BLUE POINT
Selections – 1. EKHTIYAAR, 3. HIT THE BID, 4. GIFTED MASTER & 6. FAATINAH
S1-3 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint
Charlie Appleby and William Buick combined to land the Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint over 1,200m with JUNGLE CAT 12 months ago and will be hoping for the same result with BLUE POINT this time around. Connections couldn’t have asked for a better prep run than in the G2 Meydan Sprint over 1,000m in February, with the 5YO coming home five lengths clear of main rival FAATINAH. That was his first run of the season at Meydan, so there’s every reason to believe he can come on for the run again. However, based on that form he wouldn’t need to improve to win again. He was also a winner of the G1 King's Stand Stakes over 1,000m at Royal Ascot last summer, and this small step up in distance shouldn’t prove an issue as he also won a G3 at the Berkshire track over 1,200m.
The aforementioned FAATINAH is likely to be one of his main challengers again but there is no suggestion he will reverse the form with BLUE POINT. He put in his best performance to date in that race having previously finished third in handicap over 1,000m. Prior to that, he won a weaker handicap over the same distance.
HIT THE BID finished second in both of those handicaps and is another who will be forced to settle for a place again having found one too good both times despite going off a short price. Having run in Ireland over the summer, including a good fourth in the 1,000m G1 Flying Five Stakes, he’s only had the two starts in Dubai and there’s every possibility he could improve again. He landed a G3 at Dundalk over 1,000m on his last start in Ireland in October and although that was on the polytrack, he’s a European export that goes well on the turf and is a leading place candidate.
MAZZINI is a consistent horse and has won two on the bounce in Dubai following a 105-day break. He beat both HIT THE BID and FAATINAH in January over 1,000m and won again over 1,200m.
The Doug Watson-trained EKHTIYAAR certainly looks ready for this step up in grade based on his last performance, a five-length victory over RIFLESCOPE in a 1,200m handicap at Meydan. Prior to that he finished third in a handicap in January following a gelding operation and a 163-day break from the track, so there’s reason to believe there is more improvement to come.
Hugo Palmer’s GIFTED MASTER finished fifth in the Listed Golden Rose Stakes over 1,201m, but would have a chance of featuring if he could replicate his 1,200m Stewards' Cup Handicap victory at Goodwood.
HIGH ON LIFE looks best of the rest based on his second behind MAZZINI, but realistically looks well out of depth in this company, as do the majority of the remaining runners.
SELECTIONS: 9. BLUE POINT, 1. EKHTIYAAR, 3. HIT THE BID, 4. GIFTED MASTER & 6. FAATINAH
S1-4 Burj Nahaar
The 2018 edition of the 1,600m G3 Burj Nahaar was won by KIMBEAR, and Doug Watson’s 5YO is back for more this time around. Since that win 12 months ago, the son of TEMPLE CITY hasn’t managed to get his head in front, though he has finished on the podium on two of his four starts since. He was well fancied for the G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R1 over 1,600m at the start of the year, but suffered an overreach during the race and never featured. Then on his most recent outing he failed to bounce back in the 1,600m G3 Firebreak Stakes, finishing an eight length fourth behind MUNTAZAH, SECRET AMBITION and HEAVY METAL. Much better was expected that day and there must be reservations he’s not quite as good a horse this year.
The conqueror of that race MUNTAZAH warrants plenty of respect. MUNTAZAH actually finished behind stablemate KIMBEAR at the beginning of the year in the G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R1, but improved significantly to win the aforementioned G3 Firebreak Stakes. He showed much promise when second to HEAVY METAL in the G2 Godolphin Mile over 1,600m last season and he may just be coming into form at the right time. The son of DUBAWI should go close in his trainer’s bid for back-to-back successes in the race.
AXELROD is the highest rated runner in the line-up. He boasts some of the strongest form on offer from his time in America. He was impressive when taking the G3 Smarty Jones Stakes over 1,700m at Parx last season and was a close second to MCKINZIE over 1,800m in the G1 Pennsylvania Derby at the same course the time after. That looked pretty strong form with MCKINZIE sent off favourite for the 2,000m G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic, a race in which AXELROD also ran in. Both horses finished down the field, but with MCKINZIE winning a second G1 since, a repeat of his run in the Pennsylvania Derby would see AXELROD go very close here.
Despite being a 9YO, HEAVY METAL is admirably consistent. The gelding has won 1,600m contests at both G3 and G2 level and rarely runs a bad race, though he hasn’t been quite as good so far this season. You can write off his first run of the season as he finished lame, so while his run in the G3 Firebreak Stakes was effectively his seasonal reappearance, age might just be starting to catch up with him.
It would be a huge step-up for MOQARRAB to take this given the significantly lower grade he’s been running in, while it’s the same story for RODAINI who doesn’t look up to winning a race of this quality.
GM HOPKINS is another for whom it would take a career best to win this, so the placings can be completed by SECRET AMBITION. The 6YO son of EXCEED AND EXCEL was given a long-break after finishing down the field in the G2 Godolphin Mile at the end of March last year. Since then he’s been very consistent, finishing no worse than fourth, with a win in the 1,600m G3 Jebel Ali Mile the highlight. He finished a clear second in the G3 Firebreak Stakes on his most recent start, where he had the likes of HEAVY METAL and KIMBEAR behind him, and Satish Seemar’s runner should go well again.
SELECTIONS: 1. MUNTAZAH, 5. AXELROD, 10. SECRET AMBITION, 2. HEAVY METAL & 11. KIMBEAR
S1-5 Dubai City Of Gold
As is the norm, both Godolphin’s trainers, Charlie Appleby and Saeed bin Suroor, have dominated the 2019 Carnival, and the pair are responsible for four of the 10 runners in this G2 contest over 2,410m. Bin Suroor, who won the first six runnings of this race from 1998, has also captured three of the last five, and he again looks to have two major players in RACING HISTORY and TEAM TALK. Cynics will point to the fact that RACING HISTORY is in the veteran stage and that he has not seen a winners’ enclosure since August 2015, but there is very little mileage on the clock and Bin Suroor thinks he could improve for going back up in distance.
The Appleby-trained SPOTIFY won the G3 Dubai Millennium Stakes over 2,000m here a fortnight ago, but RACING HISTORY would have caught him in one more stride, having come from off the pace to produce a power-packed finish. Granted, RACING HISTORY has disappointed on his two attempts at 2,400m, but they were on soft ground in Germany, and he has always been far more effective on a faster surface.
Not that we should dismiss either SPOTIFY or TEAM TALK lightly. SPOTIFY was being reeled in at the line last time, but he had enjoyed an easy lead in front and was idling in the closing stages. There are certainly no stamina doubts as SPOTIFY has proved equally effective at 2,000-2,400m, but James Doyle gave him a brilliant front-running ride in the G3 Dubai Millennium Stakes and I’m not sure his fellow jockeys will allow him the same luxury this time.
TEAM TALK was only beaten two lengths into fourth place in that race, and he too was rattling home at the end, so it’s reasonable to assume that, like South African raider MARINARESCO, he might also improve for what will be a first try at 2,410m.
DESERT ENCOUNTER, like RACING HISTORY a 7YO, is the top-rated horse in the field, having produced a career-best performance to win the G1 Canadian International Stakes over 2,400m in Toronto in October. But DESERT ENCOUNTER lacks a prep-race and his European form falls just short of the required standard, so he will need to show that Woodbine was no fluke.
A bigger threat could be OLD PERSIAN, whom stable jockey William Buick rides for Appleby. This horse’s form is top-class. A Royal Ascot winner in June, OLD PERSIAN found an eight-day break too short when then flopping in the G1 Irish Derby, but he bounced back to defy a penalty in beating subsequent G1 Melbourne Cup winner CROSS COUNTER in the G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes over 2,371m at York. KEW GARDENS, who finished only third at York, went on to win the 2,905m G1 St Leger Stakes at Doncaster, but even though OLD PERSIAN was only fifth there, he was still there 400m out, only for his stamina to run out over that longer distance.
SELECTIONS: 6. RACING HISTORY, 2. OLD PERSIAN, 5. SPOTIFY, 10. TEAM TALK & 8. DESERT ENCOUNTER
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5: Banker – 6. RACING HISTORY
Selections – 2. OLD PERSIAN, 5. SPOTIFY, 10. TEAM TALK & 8. DESERT ENCOUNTER
S1-6: Banker – 2. THUNDER SNOW
Selections – 9. CAPEZZANO, 3. NEW TRAILS, 4. GRONKOWSKI & 1. LOGRADO
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 6. RACING HISTORY, 2. OLD PERSIAN & 5. SPOTIFY
S1-6: Multiple – 2. THUNDER SNOW, 9. CAPEZZANO & 3. NEW TRAILS
S1-7: Multiple – 9. DREAM CASTLE, 4. CENTURY DREAM & 6. WOOTTON
S1-6 Al Maktoum Challenge R3
THUNDER SNOW, who has never been out of the first two in six races at Meydan, will be the banker of the night for the majority of punters, and last year’s brilliant G1 Dubai World Cup winner is hard to oppose in this G1 dress-rehearsal for the defence of his crown. Strictly on official ratings, it ought to be a procession for THUNDER SNOW, who has loads in hand of his rivals. But a word of caution, he was beaten when odds-on in this trial 12 months ago and, even more important, experienced a brutally hard race when finishing a gallant third in the 2,000m G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs last November. Christophe Soumillon’s over-enthusiastic use of the whip did not make pleasant viewing, and there must be a chance that those mental scars on THUNDER SNOW will have left their mark.
However, Kieren Fallon, the former GB champion jockey who now works for Saeed bin Suroor, has been riding THUNDER SNOW regularly on the Al Quoz gallops this spring, and he reports that the Meydan specialist has shown no signs of having gone backwards since he returned from his winter break.
Bin Suroor is equally confident that his stable-star is as good as he was when beating US-trained favourite WEST COAST by more than five lengths in last year’s World Cup, taking the view that the Classic was run more like a sprint than a 2,000m race, and that THUNDER SNOW had performed miracles to hang on in there for the bronze medal position. Perhaps it is because of those nagging doubts surrounding the favourite that as many as nine horses take him on.
The ex-British trained GRONKOWSKI, who took immediately to the dirt when beating all except America’s Horse of the Year JUSTIFY on his first run for Chad Brown in the Belmont last June, is interesting. GRONKOWSKI has changed stables again since finishing a disappointing third in an 1,800m G3 at Aqueduct in November, so the jury is out on how he will perform on his first run for his new yard.
A more likely alternative could be NEW TRAILS, who was a promising young horse with Andre Fabre in France two years ago but has really thrived since coming to Dubai. Two wins and a couple of seconds have seen NEW TRAILS’s rating rise from 90 to 111, and, though he could never lay a glove on that brilliant trailblazer NORTH AMERICA the G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R2, he was nearly five lengths ahead of third-placed COSMO CHARLIE and was doing his best work at the finish.
LOGRADO, a G1 winner in Argentina, has to be respected on his first run for Erwan Charpy, while Godolphin’s NORDIC LIGHTS, who is stepping up in class, having made all in a 1,800m handicap here last month, is presumably in as pacemaker for THUNDER SNOW.
However, it could be one of Godolphin’s former galloper’s, CAPEZZANO, who muscles in on the places. The BERNARDINI gelding has finished in the first three in seven of his 11 starts at Meydan and comes into the race boasting back to back wins. He’ll certainly have to progress as those two victories came in handicap company, but he demolished his rivals by a stunning 14 lengths on his last start and is taken to handle the step up in class.
SELECTIONS: 2. THUNDER SNOW, 9. CAPEZZANO, 3. NEW TRAILS, 4. GRONKOWSKI & 1. LOGRADO
S1-7 Jebel Hatta
Christophe Soumillon and Saeed bin Suroor might well enjoy a Dubai Super Saturday, and DREAM CASTLE can round the evening off in fine style by winning this G1 finale over 1,800m. Being gelded can sometimes make an enormous form difference to racehorses, and, even though DREAM CASTLE failed to fire at Meydan in last year’s Carnival, he has been a revelation since he visited the vets last summer. Having beaten RACING HISTORY in the G3 Singspiel Stakes, DREAM CASTLE was even more impressive when disposing of his Godolphin rival even more easily in the G2 Al Rashidiya. Bin Suroor pencilled in the G1 Dubai Turf on World Cup night as DREAM CASTLE’s ultimate objective back last autumn, and Soumillon reckons he can clinch his place at the top table by taking this prestigious prize en route.
Godolphin have won seven of the 19 runnings of this race, and while the blue army are responsible for half of this 10-strong field, DREAM CASTLE is the trainer’s only representative, with Charlie Appleby saddling the other four. William Buick has opted to ride WOOTTON even though this French recruit, who made a pleasing debut for the Appleby yard in the 1,600m G2 Zabeel Mile, has a bit to find with CENTURY DREAM and FIRST CONTACT on the formbook. CENTURY DREAM started favourite for that race, but it was his comeback after he had run really well to finish third to ROARING LION in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes over 1,600m at Ascot on British Champions Day.
Sharing top-rating with DREAM CASTLE is last year’s winner BLAIR HOUSE, who enjoyed a successful trip to Australia last season, finishing second in a 2,000m G1 at Caulfield before running a fair race in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes at Flemington over the same distance. BLAIR HOUSE probably needed his comeback race in the 1,800m G2 Al Rashidiya, and connections expect him to improve on that fourth place here, but Buick opting for WOOTTON looks significant as Appleby reckons he is only now beginning to know the horse.
South African wizard Mike de Kock has lifted the race four times, but MAJESTIC MAMBO, who is preferred to out-of-form stablemate JANOOBI, is having his first run for the yard and has been absent since last July, so a watching brief is advised on this one.
LOXLEY had some useful form in France last year, winning the G2 Grand Prix de Deauville over 2,500m and then finishing second in the G2 Prix Dollar over 1,950m at Longchamp’s Arc meeting, and is just preferred over Godolphin’s other horse FIRST CONTACT, who was only just behind CENTURY DREAM in the 1,600m G2 Zabeel Mile and rarely runs a bad race.
FOREST RANGER, gelded at the end of 2017, won his first two races in Britain after the operation, but his 1,800m G3 Darley Stakes second at Newmarket last October still leaves him just short of the best.
SELECTIONS: 9. DREAM CASTLE, 4. CENTURY DREAM, 6. WOOTTON, 8. BLAIR HOUSE & 10. LOXLEY
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