Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

Expert Column for Derby Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)

S1-1 Private Banking Handicap Stakes

William Haggas’ POLITICISE is likely to go off as one of the favourites for Epsom’s opening 2,015m handicap having finished in the first three in his previous four races, including a win at Newbury over 1,400m. He has followed those performances up with a second at Windsor over 1,628m and two thirds at Musselburgh and Haydock over 1,602m and 1,593m respectively. A big run is expected. However, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him find one or two too good in the final stages of the race.

Another vying for favouritism is Andrew Balding’s LE DON DE VIE who arrives on the back of a victory at Epsom back in April over 1,703m, winning by a neck over CASANOVA and drawing clear of third. That win came on good to firm ground, so the lack of rain in the area shouldn’t be an issue for Martin Dwyer. He has also placed on the all-weather over 2,000m.

NAYEF ROAD ran in a very warm G2 at York over 2,051m last time out and was far from disgraced considering he faced the likes of TELECASTER and TOO DARN HOT. He was no match for the main protagonists that day but he was victorious earlier in May when landing a five-runner contest over 2,000m at Newmarket. That was the third win of his career having also landed contests at Newmarket and Haydock over 1,400m last summer. He’s a bit more exposed than some of these but at least you know he has that winning mentality and trainer Mark Johnston will have him primed.

Haggas is also represented by the super consistent and regularly seen ALKAAMEL who arrives off the back of a hat-trick of seconds at Newcastle, Ripon and Newmarket over 1,600m to 1,605m. He was beaten less than three lengths in total in those three races and looks sure to put in a solid effort having won at Kempton, Newcastle and Wolverhampton over the same trip this year.

CREATIONIST was far from embarrassed in a Listed contest at Newcastle over 1,605m back in April, beaten into fifth but by less than four lengths with the talented FOX POWER coming home in front. Prior to that he had been the model of consistency, winning at Kempton and Newcastle over 1,600m and 1,605m. He will have to prove he acts on turf and can cope with Epsom’s undulations but he has ability.

KHEROS has struggled to build on his winning all-weather debut over 1,600m and is yet to run on turf following a third and fifth on synthetic surfaces at Wolverhampton over 1,895m and Newcastle over 2,038m.

Richad Fahey’s RED HOT finished fifth behind MEHDAAYIH in a Listed contest at Chester over 2,268m in May at a big price and has winning form over 1,605m on the all-weather.

SELECTIONS: 6. ALKAAMEL, 1. NAYEF ROAD, 8. POLITICISE, 7. LE DON DE VIE & 2. CREATIONIST

S1-2 Princess Elizabeth Stakes

The Princess Elizabeth Stakes is just one of a hatful of races that trainer Sir Michael Stoute has on his glittering CV. He will be looking to win the G3 1,703m contest for a third time, having last won it 2007 when ECHELON was victorious for a second consecutive year. This time around he saddles VERACIOUS who comes into this on the back of a below-par reappearance over 1,800m in the G2 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket. She is bound to come on from that, but it was a disappointing performance considering she finished third in two G1s last season. Stoute’s horses are fine form, however, and VERACIOUS has to be respected.

In last year’s race, ANNA NERIUM finished a gallant second. She was stuck at the back for the majority of the race and only really got going when the winner WILAMINA was out of sight. Having finished down the field in the G1 1,600m Coronation Stakes on her next start, Richard Hannon’s 4YO was mainly campaigned over 1,400m after that, where a win in the G3 Supreme Stakes at Goodwood was the highlight. She’s been back over 1,600m this year and having been given a run to get her race-fit on the all-weather at Kempton, she was only just touched off by AWESOMETANK in a Listed race at Goodwood on her most recent appearance. That will have put her spot on for this and if she can turn up in similar form to last year, she boasts a great chance of going one better.

AWESOMETANK finished just ahead of ANNA NERIUM last time and is another who must come into it. William Haggas’ 4YO is incredibly consistent and has only finished out of the first two on four occasions in 12 career starts. She is almost guaranteed to run another solid race and it’s hard to knock her, but I just fancy ANNA NERIUM to reverse the form this time around.

While VERACIOUS finished a fair way behind WORTH WAITING in the G2 Dahlia Stakes, NYALETI was just a length behind in second. Like many of Mark Johnston’s runners, she is incredibly tough, though she perhaps hasn’t quite developed quite as connections would have hoped. NYALETI won the 1,200m G2 Juddmonte Stakes as a 2YO, but since then she has only managed to get her head in front twice, albeit in a Listed contest at Goodwood and in the G2 German 1000 Guineas at Dusseldorf both over 1600m. She seems to run better with some give in the ground, as shown by a distant fourth in the G2 Middleton Stakes at York over 2,051m on good-to-firm ground last time. Johnston’s contender has the ability to get herself involved, though there have to be question marks about her performing at her best if the ground gets on the quick side.

The final spot can go to the Roger Varian-trained CONTRIVE. The 4YO daughter of MASTERCRAFTSMAN moves up to Group company for the first time and while she will have to step up markedly on what she’s done so far, she looks to have the beating of BELLA RAGAZZA on their appearances over 1,600m at Ascot. CONTRIVE finished over three lengths ahead in that race and can confirm that form again here.

SELECTIONS: 3. ANNA NERIUM, 1. VERACIOUS, 4. AWESOMETANK, 7. NYALETI & 6. CONTRIVE

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-2:   
Banker – 3. ANNA NERIUM
Selections – 1. VERACIOUS, 4. AWESOMETANK, 7. NYALETI & 6. CONTRIVE

S1-3:   
Banker – 7. BYE BYE HONG KONG
Selections – 5. ZAAKI, 4. OH THIS IS US & 3. MORDIN

S1-3 Diomed Stakes

Since becoming the retained jockey for King Power Racing, Silvestre De Sousa has enjoyed plenty of success. In the 1,703m G3 Diomed Stakes, he will be aboard another King Power-owned runner in the shape of BYE BYE HONG KONG. Andrew Balding’s 3YO has enjoyed a great season so far winning twice over 1,600m and 1,628m on the all-weather at Chelmsford, before following up in a Listed race at Windsor. He was receiving plenty of weight that day from OH THIS IS US, but he stuck it out really well and his breeding suggests he should relish the extra distance at Epsom. Being a 3YO, BYE BYE HONG KONG receives weight from the rest of the field and looks to hold solid claims as Balding seeks a record fourth win in the race.

Sir Michael Stoute’s horses are in very good form and he saddles likely favourite ZAAKI here. The 4YO joined the Stoute yard last season and was very consistent, failing to finish out of the first three on all six starts. He was gelded before the start of the 2019 campaign and that, as well as the drop down to 1,600m, seemed to do the trick as he was successful in a Listed race at Ascot over 1,600m on his seasonal reappearance. The form of that win looks solid too, with the runner-up BARNEY ROY winning a 1,600m Listed contest at ParisLongchamp since. A repeat performance from ZAAKI would surely see him go close to a second consecutive victory.

Simon Crisford won the race last year with CENTURY DREAM and his MORDIN must be respected given a very good second in last season’s Cambridgeshire at Newmarket over 1,800m and winning well at Haydock over 1,634m on his first run of this season. Those were in handicap company, though, and he looks up against it versus the market principles. MORDIN looks the best of the rest.

OH THIS IS US’ second to BYE BYE HONG KONG was his sixth start of the season and was probably his best performance. He’d been running mainly in a lower grade of race on the all-weather, before finishing down the field in a G2 at Sandown over 1600m. That didn’t look his true running, however, and he looked much more like his old self at Windsor last time behind BYE BYE HONG KONG. He is entitled to come on for that again here and he can complete the placings.

SELECTIONS: 7. BYE BYE HONG KONG, 5. ZAAKI, 4. OH THIS IS US & 3. MORDIN

S1-4 'Dash' Handicap Stakes

Holding the world record for the quickest 1,000m horse race in the world, the Dash is fast, furious and often full of hard-luck stories. STONE OF FOLCA stopped the clock at 53.69 seconds – the quickest since electronic timing began – in 2012 and, with next to no rain in the week building up to the meeting, we could see something close to that this year.

There are no horses in the line-up that took part in that record-breaking contest, but 10YO DUKE OF FIRENZE joined the roll of honour a year later and is taking part in the race for the sixth time. He’s shown that the fire still very much burns with back-to-back wins, both over 1,000m, already this season and a third success on the bounce looks achievable off his current mark of 90. He was beaten by just a neck off a mark of 107 two years ago and was rated 97 when landing this prize at the first attempt in 2013. Though DUKE OF FIRENZE would have to buck a trend and become the first 10YO to win the race, he’s in superb form and looks well treated, so should not be discounted despite his advancing years.

The younger horses will be snapping at his heels and one of those expected to mount a challenge on the day is Irish raider HATHIQ. His performance at the Curragh a fortnight ago, where he streaked clear to win by over three lengths, secured him a place in the race and he may still be well-handicapped after only four starts since changing stables after 870 days off the track. He looks to be on an upward curve and looks set to run a big race in receipt of weight from most of the field.

Followers of DARK SHOT will be wondering whether to put their faith in the 6YO once again. He has not won since September 2016 but has finished second four times since and continues to run with promise. Given he hasn’t managed to get his head in front in almost three years, he remains off a mark of 86 90 and should be competitive again. One thing to note is that he tends to do his best work at the end, so will need a clear passage.

DUKE OF FIRENZE isn’t the only horse with experience on his side here, as 10YO CASPIAN PRINCE is going for a fourth Dash win on what will be his fifth appearance. Having finished last of six on his seasonal reappearance in the 1,000m G2 Temple Stakes at Haydock last time out, and well down the field in the 1,000m G1 Nunthorpe Stakes on his final start last season, it’s hard to know what kind of form he’s in. Obviously those runs were disappointing but this race represents a major step down in class and he still rates as a danger back in handicap company.

Another with plenty of form in Listed and Group company is MUTHMIR, who lines up in this race for the first time. In fact, it’s his first start in a handicap since winning over 1,100m at Doncaster in 2014. The son of INVINCIBLE SPIRIT will appreciate the quick ground, and even though he’ll need to bounce back after two disappointing runs in stronger company, he has the class to win a race like this.

SELECTIONS: 15. HATHIQ, 3. MUTHMIR, 18. DARK SHOT, 10. DUKE OF FIRENZE & 1. CASPIAN PRINCE

S1-5 Derby Stakes

Aidan O’Brien has a typically strong hand in this year’s 2,405m G1 Derby Stakes.

The Irishman fields no less than seven runners in his bid for a record-equalling seventh win in the world’s most famous Flat race, with SIR DRAGONET looking the best of the bunch. The son of 2012 G1 Derby Stakes winner CAMELOT, who also sired last year’s G1 Irish Derby winner, LATROBE, burst onto the scene with a very impressive performance in the 2,457m G3 Chester Vase Stakes on his second start of the season. That confirmed all the promise he showed when scoring by three lengths on his debut over 2,491m in a Tipperary maiden, and after just two starts there is bound to be more to come. SIR DRAGONET did not feature among O’Brien’s original Derby entries, but was supplemented for a large fee after his runaway Chester Vase Stakes success. He powered away to score by eight lengths, with stablemate NORWAY back in second, and looks the one with that potential star quality in the field.

Of O’Brien’s others, BROOME has done everything that’s been asked of him without setting the world alight this season. The main positives with him are that he’s a more mature and experienced horse with seven runs under his belt already, while he looked like a real Derby type when winning the G3 2,000m Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes on his last start. He was by no means impressive, but he was doing all his best work at the end and the extra 400m will suit.

JAPAN needs to bounce back from a disappointing run in the 2,051m G2 Dante Stakes at York last time out to get involved. He finished fourth having been very weak in the betting immediately before the race, suggesting that he may not have been 100 percent for the race. It will take a big effort to turn around the form with the winner of that race, TELECASTER, though there’s every chance he’s better than what he showed that day and could be good enough to run into a place.

The G2 Dante Stakes winner, TELECASTER, looks to be O’Brien’s main danger. Connections were happy to fork out the supplementary fee to enter the son of NEW APPROACH following his win at York and they may well be rewarded. Like SIR DRAGONET, he was unraced as a 2YO but has quickly come to the fore this season with back-to-back wins over 2,000m and 2,051m despite losing first time up at Doncaster. He was runner-up to BANGKOK that day but is expected to reverse the form given that was his first run and BANGKOK’s fourth. BANGKOK followed up by winning the 1,990m G3 Classic Trial at Sandown and remains a serious contender.

SELECTIONS: 11. SIR DRAGONET, 13. TELECASTER, 3. BROOME, 2. BANGKOK & 7. JAPAN

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:   
Banker – 11. SIR DRAGONET
Selections – 13. TELECASTER, 3. BROOME, 2. BANGKOK & 7. JAPAN

S1-6:   
Banker – 3. SEXTANT
Selections – 10. SOTO SIZZLER, 8. EDDYSTONE ROCK, 2. AQUARIUM & 4. FIRE FIGHTING

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 11. SIR DRAGONET, 13. TELECASTER & 3. BROOME
S1-6: Multiple – 3. SEXTANT, 10. SOTO SIZZLER & 8. EDDYSTONE ROCK
S1-7: Multiple – 1. LAKE VOLTA, 4. SPANISH CITY & 8. MOUNTAIN PEAK

S1-6 Out of The Ordinary Handicap Stakes

Run over the 2,405m Derby Stakes trip but for 4YO and upwards handicappers, this handicap is another good test of stamina.

SOTO SIZZLER is a good stayer who has twice won over 2,398m and 2,405m, including at this unique track on his last start, and also appreciates quick ground. He saw out the trip well to take things up in the final furlong and hold off the late thrust of EDDYSTONE ROCK. SOTO SIZZLER’s handicap mark has gone up as a result and things will be a little bit tougher today stepping into Class 2 company.

EDDYSTONE ROCK was undoubtedly the eyecatcher of the race. He made significant late headway to power into second and was finishing faster than anything else. Like SOTO SIZZLER, he too is running off a higher mark, though he has won in Class 2 company before and looks to hold a strong chance of doing so again.

The one they may all have to beat is SEXTANT, owned by The Queen. Sir Michael Stoute is a master when it comes to taking his time with middle-distance horses before seeing them rise up through the ranks. SEXTANT, a beautifully bred son of G1 Derby Stakes winner SEA THE STARS, looked inexperienced when winning for the first time over 2,400m last August, and again showed signs of rawness when losing out in a two-horse race at Ascot on his final start of 2018. His seasonal reappearance over 2,392m at Ascot was much more convincing, though. He readily put the race to bed to win by over three lengths and looks the class act in this field. EDDYSTONE ROCK finished third in that race and is now better off at the weights with SEXTANT, though it’s hard to see him bridging the gap against a rapidly improving horse.

The Mark Johnston-trained AQUARIUM, who was last seen winning over 2,064m at Chester, has been kept fresh for this and should run another big race. He has finished first and second on his two starts at Epsom, so the track holds no fears, but there is a doubt over his ability to stay 2,405m. The son of LEROIDESANIMAUX, a multiple Group winner over 1,600m, is yet to have run over further than 2,100m.

Johnston also fields FIRE FIGHTING, who will be a familiar name to Epsom racegoers. The 8YO has visited the track six times and has finished placed or better on four occasions. He’s a winner over the distance too and lines up off his lowest mark since winning at Windsor almost 12 months ago. He looks a solid place chance but may find one or two of the younger, improving horses a bit too hot to handle.

SELECTIONS: 3. SEXTANT, 10. SOTO SIZZLER, 8. EDDYSTONE ROCK, 2. AQUARIUM & 4. FIRE FIGHTING

S1-7 Asset Management Handicap Stakes

The final race of the day at Epsom is the Asset Management Handicap Stakes where LAKE VOLTA is expected to be one of those towards the head of the betting for trainer Mark Johnston. He won nicely at Goodwood last time out over 1,200m, justifying favouritism to finish over two lengths clear of PUDS. Jockey Joe Fanning takes the ride again and with conditions expected to be fast again, he looks set to produce another big run. Prior to that he finished a good third at Thirsk over 1,400m, beaten less than two lengths despite being hampered on the rail as he began to put down his final effort. With a clear run today he should be right there at the finishing line.

SPANISH CITY has been knocking on the door of late and a push for the places is expected by Roger Varian’s charge once again, though he may find one or two too good for win purposes. He ran a big race to finish second at Newmarket over 1,400m in May, narrowly going down by a neck to Marco Botti’s PETTIFOGGER, and should be there or thereabouts.

MOUNTAIN PEAK returned from a 224-day break in disappointing fashion, finishing a well beaten eighth at Goodwood over 1,000m. He looks sure to come on for that run and boasts some decent form having won five times in his career, including over this 1,200m trip at Leicester. Conditions should not be an issue based on his winning performance over 1,000m in a valuable handicap on quick ground at Ascot in September of last year and he should feature.

David O’Meara’s AREEN HEART was well beaten by LAKE VOLTA when last seen at Goodwood over 1,200m but has hit the frame on six occasions this season over 1,200m to 1,400m. However, those best runs have all come on the all-weather, including a fifth in the 1,201m All-Weather Sprint Championships Conditions Stakes at Lingfield, a race won by the talented KACHY.

TAWNY PORT was nowhere to be seen at Ascot last time out over 1,200m but that was after a 203-day break and he should come on for that run and will appreciate the underfoot conditions.

Quick ground and 1,200m looks perfect for REPUTATION, who was last seen finishing eighth in a bunched finish for minor honours in a high class handicap at York. Before that, he landed a strong 1,200m contest at Ripon by three lengths and could go close again on only his third start since switching from John Quinn to Ruth Carr.

SELECTIONS: 1. LAKE VOLTA, 4. SPANISH CITY, 8. MOUNTAIN PEAK, 6. AREEN HEART & 3. REPUTATION

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