 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Commonwealth Cup Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Albany Stakes
The 1,200m G3 Albany Stakes is a sprint for the fillies and it’s no surprise to see US trainer Wesley Ward with two strong chances in the shape of NAYIBETH and CHILI PETIN. Both arrive at Ascot having won on debut, with the former, NAYIBETH, the more impressive when scoring by almost five lengths over 900m at Keeneland with the minimum of fuss. She had all her rivals off the bridle coming into the home turn and her jockey, Joel Rosario, barely had to move a muscle.
Stablemate CHILI PETIN did nothing wrong on her debut either, winning with plenty in hand over that same track and trip and also has to be respected. The Ward pair are hard to split, and both look like running big races, although it’s worth highlighting that the US trainer hasn’t managed to win this race yet.
DAAHYEH will lead the home challenge and also come into the race on the back of a winning debut. Trained by Roger Varian, who has had a great campaign so far, she looked a very smart filly when winning comfortably over 1,200m at Newbury. Obviously, this represents a big step up in class, but she did everything right on debut and looks like having a big say in the finish.
Frankie Dettori is never too far away from making the winners’ enclosure at Royal Ascot, and his mount, LAST SURPRISE, may be good enough to lead him back in there again. Like many of these, she could only beat what was in front of her on debut over 1,201m on the all-weather at Lingfield, and she did it in good style. The daughter of the G2 Norfolk Stakes winner NO NAY NEVER scored by three lengths, beating a fairly strong field of more experienced horses. She’s likely to improve for that debut and looks worthy of filling one of the first few places.
Trainer Richard Fahey has his horses in good form and is represented by EXCEPTIONAL. It’s hard to make too much of her only career run but she had to make up plenty of late ground and pass through weakening horses to make a winning debut. That experience will stand her in good stead for this big-field race.
PRECIOUS MOMENTS lines up for Aidan O’Brien and is bidding to give her trainer just a second win in the race, modest by his high standards. She finished third on her racecourse debut over 1,200m at Curragh, and the second from that race has since come out and won. She was well-backed on that debut and warrants respect given her connections.
SILENT WAVE is the sole runner for Godolphin and trainer Charlie Appleby. She was fairly impressive when winning a 1,200m maiden at Goodwood by over two lengths, particularly as she showed plenty of inexperience and ran keenly in the early stages, and makes the shortlist.
SELECTIONS: 6. DAAHYEH, 20. NAYIBETH, 22. PRECIOUS MOMENTS, 25. SILENT WAVE & 16. LAST SURPRISE
S1-2 King Edward VII Stakes
Everyone knows about Frankie Dettori’s love affair with Royal Ascot and he looks to have another good chance of getting a winner in the 2,392m G2 King Edward VII Stakes with PRIVATE SECRETARY. The son of KINGMAN has gone from strength-to-strength this season with three victories, most notably in his most recent outing in the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood over 2,240m. He looked to win with a fair amount in hand that day and he’s definitely one for the shortlist.
Aidan O’Brien has had success in the majority of races at Royal Ascot, but this is one where his success has been limited with just one winner, though he did train the second and third last year. He saddles likely favourite JAPAN this time around, who looks primed for a bold showing. O’Brien’s son of GALILEO has always been well-regarded and looked a horse to follow when overcoming a difficult trip to land the G2 Beresford Stakes over 1,600m at Naas on his final start as a 2YO. He begun this season with a fourth-place finish in the 2,051m G2 Dante Stakes at York where he looked in serious need of the run and a longer trip. JAPAN got that in the G1 Derby Stakes over 2,405m and showed his liking for the extra distance when taking a big step forward to finish a close third. His jockey dropped his whip near the finish that day, so he did well to get as close as he did and looks sure to go well again here.
James Fanshawe and Oisin Murphy have a solid chance with PONDUS. The 3YO has won his last two, with his five-length win in a 1,990m novice contest at Sandown particularly impressive. He has won all on types of ground so looks versatile in that respect, though this is a big step up in class from his Sandown victory.
Given he finished a good second to Derby winner ANTHONY VAN DYCK in the Listed 2,321m Derby Trial Stakes, William Haggas’ PABLO ESCOBARR must come into contention. Having moved from the Mark Johnston yard last year, Haggas’ runner finished a good second to subsequent G1 winner LINE OF DUTY in a 1,600m Goodwood maiden, before winning a 1,979m maiden at the same track. He was narrowly denied over 2,325m handicap at Bath on his seasonal reappearance, but given the level of form of his Lingfield run, he must be respected.
Both HUMANITARIAN and EAGLES BY DAY would need to step up on what they’ve done so far, so the placings can be completed by BANGKOK. Wins in a Doncaster maiden and Sandown’s G3 Classic Trial saw Andrew Balding’s contender fairly well-fancied for the Derby at Epsom, but he failed to handle the undulations of the track and finished down the field. The form of his previous two wins is strong, though, with the Doncaster runner-up winning the G2 Dante Stakes and the Sandown second winning a Listed contest at ParisLongchamp recently. If he can get back to that sort of form, he’d come into the reckoning.
SELECTIONS: 5. JAPAN, 8. PRIVATE SECRETARY, 6. PABLO ESCOBARR, 7. PONDUS & 1. BANGKOK
S1-3 Commonwealth Cup
This year’s renewal of the G1 1,200m Commonwealth Cup, now in its fifth year, looks to be a case of TEN SOVEREIGNS versus the field. Aidan O’Brien’s son of the speedy NO NAY NEVER is dropping back in trip after finishing a solid fifth in the G1 2000 Guineas Stakes at Newmarket over 1,600m. This shorter distance clearly suits O’Brien’s runner, who is unbeaten in three starts over 1,200m, including at G1 level. He has the strongest form in the race and looks the one to beat.
Of the challengers, JASH, who was second to TEN SOVEREIGNS over 1,200m in the G1 Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket, could be the one to chase him home again. TEN SOVEREIGNS just managed to pull out a little bit extra to keep JASH at bay in that race last autumn, with the two pulling over three lengths clear of RUMBLE INTHEJUNGLE. JASH made no mistake on his seasonal debut, winning a Listed contest over 1,400m at Newmarket last month, and that run will have put him in good shape for today.
ADVERTISE has been in the shadows since a highly promising 2YO season. Frankie Dettori’s mount won the G2 July Stakes and G1 Phoenix Stakes, both 1,200m, before running second to 2018’s champion juvenile, TOO DARN HOT, in the G1 1,400m Dewhurst Stakes. He failed to get involved when stepped up in trip for his seasonal reappearance in the G1 2000 Guineas Stakes at Newmarket, but could be set for a better run over this shorter distance.
HELLO YOUMZAIN benefited from a step back in distance when winning the 1,200m G2 Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock last time out, having previously finished just fourth in the G3 Greenham Stakes over 1,400m. He looks versatile in terms of ground, having won on soft and good-to-firm, and has strong place claims.
KHAADEM is another who handles a softer surface. The son of DARK ANGEL comes into the race seeking a four-timer, with all of his last three wins coming over 1,200m, but is stepping up in class. His latest victory came in the Listed Carnarvon Stakes, where he was made to work quite hard for his third win on the bounce and this looks tougher.
The same can be said for FOREVER IN DREAMS, who will be making his third start for Irish handler Aidan Fogarty. Formerly trained by Matthieu Palussiere where he won over 1,200m as a 2YO, he got off the mark at the second time off asking for Fogarty over the same trip in Listed company at Haydock. He’ll need a career best if he’s to take home any prize money in this company.
SELECTIONS: 7. TEN SOVEREIGNS, 3. JASH, 1. ADVERTISE, 2. HELLO YOUMZAIN & 4. KHAADEM
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 7. TEN SOVEREIGNS
Selections – 3. JASH, 1. ADVERTISE, 2. HELLO YOUMZAIN & 4. KHAADEM
S1-4: Banker – 3. HERMOSA
Selections – 4. JUBILOSO, 1. CASTLE LADY, 10. WATCH ME & 2. HAPPEN
S1-4 Coronation Stakes
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the 1,594m Coronation Stakes on three occasions, most recently with WINTER in 2017, and in HERMOSA this year, he looks to have a very good chance of winning it for a fourth time. The daughter of GALILEO showed some solid form as a 2YO where she followed a victory in the 1,400m G3 Weld Park Stakes at Naas, with runner-up finishes in the G1 Fillies’ Mile over 1,600m and G1 Criterium International over 1,400m. Despite those performances, she was relatively unfancied for the 1,600m 1000 Guineas Stakes on her first start as a 3YO, but put up a strong performance to win the G1 contest, and then showed that was no fluke with a dominant four-length victory in the Irish equivalent over the same distance. If HERMOSA turns up in similar form here, she should prove very tough to beat.
Like HERMOSA, Sir Michael Stoute’s JUBILOSO is two from two this season. However unlike her rival, those are the only two runs of her life, having not run as a 2YO. She’s been very impressive in those starts, though, with a comfortable success in a 1,200m Chelmsford maiden before bolting up by seven lengths at Newbury over 1,400m. This is a massive step up in class and she might lack experience compared to the other runners, but given her connections, she has to be respected.
CASTLE LADY is another unbeaten filly, who has won all three of her starts over 1,600m this season. She didn’t run as 2YO either, but has looked good so far this year with her win in the G1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches over 1,600m last time the highlight. The potential for rain should hold no fears for the daughter of SHAMARDAL as her win her last time was on heavy ground and she could give HERMOSA plenty to think about if in a similar mood.
O’Brien also runs HAPPEN and JUST WONDERFUL, with HAPPEN the pick of the two on all known form. She won the G3 Athasi Stakes over 1,400m last time and prior to that she was second in the G3 Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial over the same distance. This is her first try at this 1,594m trip, but she only really got going in the closing stages at Curragh last time, so the extra 200m should hold no fears.
On her second to HERMOSA in the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas, PRETTY POLLYANNA may come into contention. She enjoyed a good 2YO campaign with Group successes at Newmarket and Deauville (both 1,200m), though she lost her way a little bit after that and is unlikely to get her preferred fast ground here.
WATCH ME finished just under three lengths behind CASTLE LASY in the G1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches last time. Prior to that she had shown some good form, with victories in a 1,600m Listed contest at Toulouse and over 1,400m in the G3 Prix Imprudence at Maisons-Laffitte. The win at Toulouse was on heavy ground, while there was soft in the going description at Maison-Laffite, so she shouldn’t have any problems if the rain falls and that could see her bridge the gap with CASTLE LADY this time around.
SELECTIONS: 3. HERMOSA, 4. JUBILOSO, 1. CASTLE LADY, 10. WATCH ME & 2. HAPPEN
S1-5 Sandringham Stakes (Handicap)
Introduced in 2002, the Sandringham Stakes over Ascot’s straight 1,600m is essentially a fillies’ equivalent of Thursday’s Britannia Stakes. Top-weight MAGNETIC CHARM, owned by the Queen, was a good fourth over a straight 1,600m in a G2 at Doncaster last year and confirmed herself a classy filly by winning a 1,575m Listed race at York last month. She runs here in preference to the G1 Coronation Stakes, and top-weight has been carried successfully on three occasions. Her trainer WIlliam Haggas also saddles ICE GALA, whose latest run can be forgiven as she received a bad bump at the start.
Aidan O’Brien has never won the race and he runs CORAL BEACH who takes a massive drop in class after finishing eighth in both the G1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches and its Irish equivalent over 1,600m.
NONCHALANCE makes her handicap debut for John Gosden after comfortable novice wins at Haydock over 1,593m and Newmarket over 1,400m. This is a big step up in class though, and both of her wins were on fast ground, so drying conditions would help. Gosden, who won this race in 2016, also saddles KIMBLEWICK, SPANISH ARIA and WHIMBREL, who are all towards the foot of the handicap.
KIMBLEWICK’s best form is on artificial surfaces, but SPANISH ARIA ran her best race over 1,600m on softish ground at Newbury last October, when second to a filly who has since won a G3. Her recent all-weather reappearance can be ignored as she started slowly and got no run. WHIMBREL drops in trip after winning over 2,000m on Polytrack at Chelmsford.
INVITATIONAL is a similar type to NONCHALANCE, as she is another from a top stable who is moving into handicap company after two novice wins, in her case on artificial surfaces over 1,400m at Kempton and Wolverhampton over 1,433m. The Wolverhampton second and third have both won twice since, so it looks strong form on paper.
LAYALEENA was found wanting when tried in the 1,600m G1 Fillies’ Mile last year, but looked much improved for a drop in trip and a switch to forcing tactics in a 1,668m handicap at Nottingham last time (AIM POWER fourth), where she looked a filly to follow.
Ed Walker won this last year with AGROTERA and he has another good chance with HOTSY TOTSY, who makes her handicap debut after wide-margin wins in 1,394m novice events at Salisbury on good to firm, and Kempton on polytrack. She also ran very well on soft going on her debut. Jamie Spencer rides Ascot’s straight course particularly well and AGROTERA was his fourth winner in this race.
Walker also saddles GALLIC, but she has been beaten in two handicaps since winning over 1,605m at Newcastle and ran poorly when encountering soft ground last year.
I'M AVAILABLE is creeping up the handicap, but is in a small minority who are known to enjoy soft ground, so will be especially interesting if the course fails to dry out. She won by eight lengths at Nottingham over 1,668m when first encountering it, and followed up with a very good second under similar conditions over today’s track and trip.
SELECTIONS: 15. HOTSY TOTSY, 9. NONCHALANCE, 11. LAYALEENA, 8. INVITATIONAL & 20. I'M AVAILABLE
S1-6 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap)
With a maximum field, this year’s 2,392m Duke of Edinburgh Stakes has the potential to be quite a rough race. Drawn wide, a jockey can steer clear of the bumper car activity that occurs when those from low stalls fight to keep their inside berth.
BAGHDAD, who beat CORGI in the 2,392m King George V Stakes over this course and distance last year, has to be on the shortlist. That looks like top-class form, as FIRST ELEVEN was third and subsequent G1 Melbourne Cup winner CROSS COUNTER fourth. BAGHDAD’s comeback third at Newcastle in April over 2,489m put him spot on for Newmarket’s Guineas meeting where he swooped late to catch CORELLI over 2,400m. Mark Johnston’s runner looks to be a Group horse masquerading in handicaps, and the fact that he has booked Ryan Moore is a huge tip in itself.
FUJAIRA PRINCE has not been out of the first two in five races, winning three of them. He produced his best performance yet when splitting FIRST ELEVEN and CORGI at York over 2,371m, where COLLIDE was close up in fourth. CORGI was unlucky not to be a bit closer as he raced wider than the principals, making it difficult to attack. He has been placed on both his runs over the course and distance and the track brings out the best in him.
Irish challenger JOHNNY DRAMA is a lightly-raced improver who made short work of his first handicap at Roscommon over 2,046m. Inevitably, his rating shot up after that, which is a worry, as is the fact that he likes to make the running which won’t be easy in this tougher race, but Ger Lyons hopes going up in distance here might bring about further improvement.
The Irish have not won this race since the turn of the century but have another big player in Joseph O’Brien’s ARTHURIAN FAME. He is also on a hat-trick and has more experience than JOHNNY DRAMA, even though he is climbing the weights after those victories at Naas and Leopardstown, he remains interesting.
Ian Williams celebrated his first Royal winner in Tuesday’s Ascot Stakes, and the trainer expects a big run from top-weight BYRON FLYER. His best to date came when runner-up in a hot handicap over 2,405m at Epsom three weeks ago but needs to find more again.
Godolphin run SECRET ADVISOR, who was a smart 3YO, finishing third to STRADIVARIUS in the G2 Queen’s Vase over 2,792m, though injury has kept him off the track for 22 months. Connections might have better prospects with LUCIUS TIBERIUS. He joined the ‘boys in blue’ from Aidan O’Brien this year and was gelded, running his best race to finish second at York over 2,051m last month. He now enters unknown territory.
SELECTIONS: 3. BAGHDAD, 17. FUJAIRA PRINCE, 16. CORGI, 14. COLLIDE & 13. ARTHURIAN FAME
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