 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Pat Eddery Stakes
Given the likes of TORONADO and CHINDIT have won the 1,400m Pat Eddery Stakes in the past, it’s clear you need a decent horse to take this Listed contest.
Godolphin won this two years ago with AL DABARAN and they look to have a pretty solid contender this time around in the shape of NEW SCIENCE. Very impressive on debut at Yarmouth over 1,403m, he was next seen in the Listed Chesham Stakes over 1,400m at Royal Ascot. While disappointing there, it was much softer ground than at Yarmouth and that might not have suited him. Back on a sounder surface, he looks a leading player.
When Frankie Dettori is booked at Ascot you should always take note and he rides ANGEL BLEU. The Ralph Beckett-trained 2YO was last seen when finishing down the field in the Coventry Stakes over 1,200m, but was impressive when winning at Salisbury over 1,000m and Pontefract over 1,200m on his subsequent two outings. He got a bit outpaced at Ascot and looks likely to appreciate the step up in trip.
Likewise, the booking of Ryan Moore is always noteworthy, so George Boughey’s CACHET is well worth a second look. She was a good winner on debut at Newmarket over 1,200m before running another solid race in the G3 Albany Stakes. Boughey’s inmate was then quickly turned out for the Listed Empress Stakes over 1,200m where she was only just touched off to finish third. She gets a handy weight allowance given her sex and is yet to run a bad race.
Another interesting contender is Tom Dascombe’s MR MCCANN, owned by a number of players from Liverpool Football Club. He’s one of the more experienced runners in the line-up having run four times and has already tasted success twice at Lingfield over 1,201m and Haydock over 1,393m. The son of KODIAC was tried at G2 level last time in the Superlative Stakes over 1,400m and was far from disgraced when finishing fourth. That’s some of the strongest form on offer here and he’s not without a chance in a very open contest.
LIKE A LION finished well behind ANGEL BLEU on debut at Salisbury over 1,000m, but that trip was clearly on the short side given his impressive win at the same track over 1,394m next time out. There was a lot to like about that performance and he seemed to get better the further he went, so Ascot’s stiff track should play to his strengths.
SELECTIONS: 4. NEW SCIENCE, 1. ANGEL BLEU, 5. CACHET & 3. MR MCCANN
S1-2 Princess Margaret Stakes
This year’s renewal of the G3 1,200m Princess Margaret Stakes looks to be wide open with a strong set of 2YO fillies lining up.
Richard Hannon unleashes his exciting SYSTEM, who will be well fancied in the market. She ran twice in her career starts, finishing second at Salisbury over 1,200m on debut and then winning the Listed Empress Stakes at Newmarket (July Course) over 1,200m. She beat rival DESERT DREAMER by a neck that day under Pat Dobbs and is easy to fancy.
DESERT DREAMER, however, will be looking to reverse that form for trainer Stuart Williams. Williams’ filly has only finished outside the places on one occasion, in the 1,000m G2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, where she was slowly away and found things happening too quickly. Since then, the 2YO has finished a close second to SYSTEM in the Empress Stakes and picked up runners-up honours again in the 1,200m G2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes. Still open to improvement, another win should be just around the corner.
Andrew Balding is looking for his first win in the race with NYMPHADORA. Finishing way back in the G2 Queen Mary Stakes, the daughter of NO NAY NEVER will be looking to bounce back from that. On debut, she finished well behind DESERT DREAMER but managed to shed her maiden tag in the Listed Marygate Stakes at York over 1,000m subsequently. Stepping up to 1,200m for the first time, Balding and jockey Jason Watson will be hoping the extra distance brings about some improvement.
ATTAGIRL represents the Karl Burke yard. She finished a close third on debut at Haydock over 1,200m and won well on her second outing by four lengths. Still open to improvement, she’s an interesting proposition in an open renewal.
EL HADEEYAH won last time out at Lingfield over 1,201m and trainer James Tate now lines her up for a shot at Group glory. She was unsuccessful in three attempts over 1,000m before winning impressively when up in trip. Winning this may be a step too far but she’s an improving filly who can be considered for a place.
SELECTIONS: 4. DESERT DREAMER, 10. SYSTEM, 8. NYMPHADORA, 1. ATTAGIRL & 5. EL HADEEYAH
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 4. DESERT DREAMER
Selections – 10. SYSTEM, 8. NYMPHADORA, 1. ATTAGIRL & 5. EL HADEEYAH
S1-3: Banker – 3. FANTASTIC FOX
Selections – 4. ISLA KAI, 2. LATEST GENERATION & 6. GURU
S1-3 3yo 86-105 Handicap
Ground conditions could prove to be the single most important factor for this 3yo 86-105 Handicap.
Several of this field have a preference for rain-softened going, whereas some prefer quicker conditions, so whether or not the forecast thunderstorms hit the Ascot area could be crucial when trying to solve this puzzle.
Connections of LATEST GENERATION, hat-trick seeking MARSABIT and FANTASTIC FOX are all hoping Ascot remains dry, while it’s a case of the softer the better for northern challenger ISLA KAI.
King Power Racing have their team in great form, but, though they have two runners here, former champion Silvestre de Sousa, their retained jockey, has opted for FANTASTIC FOX, who is better than he looked at Royal Ascot over 1,993m. FANTASTIC FOX went off too fast there and folded up quickly in the straight over a trip too far, but he is best judged on his less than two lengths third to SNOW LANTERN in a hot Newbury maiden over 1,600m in April. That form received a handsome boost when SNOW LANTERN subsequently finished second to ALCOHOL FREE in the G1 1,594m Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot and then proved herself at the top level when winning the G1 1,600m Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting. Back over his optimum distance, FANTASTIC FOX should settle better than he did at the Royal meeting, and the handicapper might have been generous in his assessment.
GURU was gelded after disappointing at Doncaster in March, and the first-time blinkers seemed to bring about improvement when he then ran ISLA KAI to a neck at Ascot over 1,594m. Should the headgear work again, he could be a player.
However, ISLA KAI still looks to have the edge. He has made phenomenal improvement, winning his last four times on turf, and young Rowan Scott has struck up a great partnership with him. ISLA KAI takes some pegging back when in the zone up front, and if the rain does come in time, he will be hard to reel in.
LATEST GENERATION’s improved form has been attributed to the fast ground. Runner-up at Sandown over 1,600m, he then produced a career-best performance at Newmarket (July Course) over 1,600m, where he bumped into the unbeaten Godolphin colt ROYAL FLEET. This is LATEST GENERATION’s optimum distance having looked a little stretched over 2,000m at Newbury in the spring.
SELECTIONS: 3. FANTASTIC FOX, 4. ISLA KAI, 2. LATEST GENERATION & 6. GURU
S1-4 3yo+ Handicap
Although favourites have won two of the last five runnings of this 1,400m heritage handicap, five winners in the past decade have been 20/1 or bigger so it’s a race that can throw up a shock.
Andrew Balding has had a fantastic season and his SHINE SO BRIGHT is an interesting contender after a decent fourth in the 1,400m Bunbury Cup at Newmarket (July Course) last time. The son of OASIS DREAM was winning at G2 level two years ago at York over 1,400m, beating multiple G1-winning filly LAURENS, but things haven’t really progressed since then. In fact he’s yet to get his head in front again since that day, though he has dropped in the handicap and has to be of interest off his current mark.
DANYAH has some really solid handicap form this season over both 1,400m and 1,600m. Owen Burrrows’ 4YO was fourth in the Lincoln 4yo+ Handicap over 1,600m at Doncaster on his reappearance before finishing runner up in both a 4yo+ Handicap over 1,600m at Newbury and the Buckingham Palace Stakes over 1,400m at Royal Ascot. He’s been unfortunate not to win a race this term and even though he’s risen in the weights again, he holds solid claims once more.
Clive Cox landed one of these big Ascot 1,400m handicaps earlier in the season with RIVER NYMPH and DANCE FEVER is another with a live chance. The gelded son of SIR PRANCEALOT is one of the lesser exposed runners in the field having only had seven career starts. He went well for a long way on his reappearance in the Buckingham Palace Stakes over 1,400m but understandably got tired after nearly a year off the track. That run clearly brought him forward when winning a 1,400m handicap at Leicester earlier this month and he has the potential to be better than his mark.
The 7YO CLIFFS OF CAPRI loves it at Ascot over 1,400m. In six starts over this course and distance he has won twice and has never finished worse than fifth. A close second in this race 12 months ago, he races off a slightly lower mark and should put in another good display.
The final selection is KIMIFIVE who is likely to be a big price but is another who is very consistent. He was one place behind SHINE SO BRIGHT in the Bunbury Cup over 1,400m last time and connections have booked Ray Dawson, an accomplished young apprentice jockey, which could make the difference.
SELECTIONS: 5. SHINE SO BRIGHT, 11. DANCE FEVER, 12. CLIFFS OF CAPRI, 2. DANYAH & 17. KIMIFIVE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-4: Banker – 5. SHINE SO BRIGHT
Selections – 11. DANCE FEVER, 12. CLIFFS OF CAPRI, 2. DANYAH & 17. KIMIFIVE
S1-5: Banker – 3. LOVE
Selections – 5. ADAYAR, 6. LONE EAGLE & 2. MISHRIFF
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 5. SHINE SO BRIGHT, 11. DANCE FEVER & 12. CLIFFS OF CAPRI
S1-5: Multiple – 3. LOVE, 5. ADAYAR & 6. LONE EAGLE
S1-6: Multiple – 1. BY STARLIGHT, 4. SOUTHERN VOYAGE & 3. CAMELOT TALES
S1-5 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes
Races don’t come much bigger than the 2,392m G1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
There’s no better place to start than with this year’s G1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes winner, LOVE. Aidan O’Brien’s filly confirmed her 3YO season was no fluke to land the spoils at this track last month after a 300-day break. It was a concern that she was stepping back from her preferred trip that day, but she proved her versatility and all clues point to another G1 win here, especially if the ground remains quick.
G1 Derby hero ADAYAR lines up to take on the wonder filly. When winning at Epsom last month, the Charlie Appleby-trained colt beat some well-regarded horses, including stablemate HURRICANE LANE who has since landed the G1 Irish Derby and G1 Grand Prix de Paris, both over 2,400m. ADAYAR’s Derby success was his first win of the season after finishing second in the G3 Classic Trial over 1,990m and the Listed Derby Trial Stakes over 2,321m. He appreciated the extra distance at Epsom and if he can repeat that effort he will be hard to beat getting plenty of weight from LOVE.
HURRICANE LANE bounced back from his defeat to ADAYAR to triumph over LONE EAGLE in the Irish Derby. Martyn Meade’s charge looked like the winner at the Curragh, only to be reeled in late on, but Frankie Dettori keeps the ride at his favourite track. Three of LONE EAGLE’s four career successes have come on soft going and quick conditions would be a concern.
Globetrotter MISHRIFF will have just his second outing over this trip as he tries to land his first domestic G1. He has already tasted success twice this year in the 1,800m Saudi Cup and the G1 2,410m Dubai Sheema Classic, before returning back to the UK for the G1 Eclipse Stakes over 1,990m, where he looked like he would come on for the run. If he does indeed improve for that outing, he’s an interesting contender but he has to prove he can be competitive at the top level in the UK.
Both WONDERFUL TONIGHT and BROOME would enter the equation if the rain turned out to be heavier than expected. They filled the first two places in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes over the same course and distance last time but the ground is likely to be too lively for both.
SELECTIONS: 3. LOVE, 5. ADAYAR, 6. LONE EAGLE & 2. MISHRIFF
S1-6 3yo+ 66-85 Handicap
BY STARLIGHT should shine brightly in this competitive 2,392m handicap.
She can pull hard in the early stages but it didn’t stop her winning over 2,398m at Goodwood in June. Her second behind smart Godolphin prospect SAYYIDA at Newmarket (July Course) three weeks later was even better. It’s never easy to come from off the pace at the July Course, so to get within a length of a filly with SAYYIDA’s ability was an excellent effort. There’s a strong possibility she will improve again, especially if she settles in the early stages.
SOUTHERN VOYAGE twice ran well in hot 1,600m Newmarket novice races before getting off the mark over 2,001m last month. It was a little disappointing he made such hard work of it in that Redcar novice contest but the steady pace he set probably counted against Archie Watson’s strong stayer. The step up to 2,392m is in his favour and he could be extremely well handicapped.
CAMELOT TALES looked a nice prospect when winning a good Redcar novice race over 2,001m in April. He disappointed on his next two starts, but there were excuses for his below-par displays. It was a different story when he was ridden patiently over 2,000m at Ayr three weeks ago. He showed a great turn of pace in the closing stages to run down the leaders and he was well on top at the line.
DOCTOR PARNASSUS is still a maiden but he does have some useful form in the book. His York third over 2,371m in May was a fine handicap debut and he backed it up when narrowly beaten over 2,327m in what looked a strong race. He looks nicely handicapped when everything clicks and it’s only a matter of time before he gets off the mark.
ZUBA won over hurdles over 3,177m at Plumpton in May. There was nothing wrong with his return to the Flat when he chased home BY STARLIGHT over 2,398m at Goodwood in June. He was just overhauled in the final stages having hit the front with 200m to run. He again ran well over 2,398m at Goodwood a week later when a close third behind GENESIUS and he probably didn’t see out the 4,000m distance when he returned to hurdles at Worcester.
SELECTIONS: 1. BY STARLIGHT, 4. SOUTHERN VOYAGE, 3. CAMELOT TALES & 5. DOCTOR PARNASSUS
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