 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Yorkshire Oaks Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Lowther Stakes
SANDRINE is unbeaten in three career starts and looks the obvious starting point. In winning the G3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot over 1,200m and most recently the G2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes over 1,200m she has beaten several of these rivals and done so impressively. She has proved herself versatile as well, winning on heavy ground at Ascot before finding the good to fast ground at Newmarket (July Course) no obstacle to success. This daughter of BOBBY'S KITTEN seems to have few weaknesses and ranks as the one to beat.
ZAIN CLAUDETTE is a filly with an electric turn of foot, as she demonstrated when surging home to deny DESERT DREAMER on the line at Ascot over 1,200m. She ran the final 400m that day in 23.29s off what was a slow early pace. Rider Ray Dawson has struck up a great partnership with this filly and she should have more to give, especially in a more strongly run contest. The suspicion is she needs quick ground, so any rain would likely blunt her finishing speed.
DESERT DREAMER has been a model of consistency this season and deserves to win a group race. She ran the final 400m marginally quicker than the winner at Ascot in July, but she is a filly that needs things to fall right for her and, as a more exposed filly, is likely to struggle to reverse that form.
Karl Burke won this in 2019 and his filly ILLUSTRATING looks a danger. She travelled much the best when winning a Conditions race at Goodwood over 1,000m and cleared away well from her rivals at the finish, running the final 400m in 23.46, a good time on what was described as soft ground. She could only manage seventh position in the G2 Queen Mary Stakes over 1,000m at Royal Ascot the time before, but there she raced a good way out from the stands rail, which looked the place to be that day. With stamina on her dam side this step up to 1,200m should suit and may well bring about further improvement.
HELLO YOU has run with great credit this season, finding SANDRINE too strong the last twice. Hopes of her improving look pinned on a recent stable switch to David Loughnane, but at best she looks set to fill out the places once again.
SELECTIONS: 1. SANDRINE, 11. ZAIN CLAUDETTE, 2. DESERT DREAMER, 5. ILLUSTRATING & 4. HELLO YOU
S2-2 2yo Allowance
Given trainer Richard Hannon has won four of the last five runnings of this 1,200m contest, his stable is a pretty good place to start when trying to find the winner this year.
Richard Hannon is set to be mob-handed with plenty of his having interesting profiles, but the one of most interest is SYSTEM. The daughter of GALILEO GOLD was only just touched off on debut at Salisbury over 1,200m and then confirmed the promise she showed there when winning the Listed Empress Stakes over 1,200m at Newmarket (July Course). She was perhaps a touch disappointing in G3 company at Ascot last time over 1,200m, but she wasn’t beaten far, and this is a lower standard of race.
WINGS OF WAR looks a very interesting contender on the back of a taking victory at Nottingham last time over 1,216m. Prior to that he finished second in a hot novice contest at Leicester over 1,000m which has produced a number of subsequent winners. He put the race to bed stylishly at Nottingham and looks ready for a shot at this.
EVER GIVEN is one of the more experienced runners in the line-up having run five times already. He’s tasted three times successful so far, including a novice race over 1,200m at Ripon, a handicap over 1,401m at Chester, and an extremely competitive handicap over 1,200m at Goodwood. Tom Dascombe’s runner was last seen when only just touched off in the valuable Ballyhane Stakes over 1,186m at Naas, where he had the likes of SMULLEN in behind. The form of that run and the manner of his Goodwood victory bring him right into contention here.
As mentioned, SMULLEN finished behind EVER GIVEN in that Naas contest. He was sent off 100/1 for that, showing the huge step up he made compared to his previous three outings. Kevin Ryan’s contender might just be a horse that has taken time to get the hang of things, but he will need to improve again to be involved here.
It was hard not to be impressed by KORKER’s five-length victory at Thirsk last time over 1,000m. He’d won a Carlisle novice contest over 1,000m in May prior to that and wasn’t disgraced when ninth in the G2 Norfolk Stakes over 1,000m subsequently. This is a deeper contest than that Thirsk race and he tackles 1,200m for the first time, but he looks an intriguing runner given the way he put the race to bed.
SELECTIONS: 17. SYSTEM, 20. WINGS OF WAR, 6. EVER GIVEN, 9. KORKER & 16. SMULLEN
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2:
Banker – 17. SYSTEM
Selections – 20. WINGS OF WAR, 6. EVER GIVEN, 9. KORKER & 16. SMULLEN
S2-3:
Banker – 5. ASTRO KING
Selections – 14. LA TRINIDAD, 6. ORBAAN, 17. IRISH ADMIRAL & 18. AMETIST
S2-3 3yo+ Handicap
Looking at the trends for this contest and it is noticeable that often it is won by a horse near the top of the handicap.
Taking this into account, Sir Michael Stoute’s ASTRO KING not only fits that bill but ticks a lot of other boxes, too.
Lightly-raced, ASTRO KING has finished in the first three in seven of his eight races. We can forget the last month’s disappointment at York over 2,051m as all his best form has been over 1,600m. He never looked comfortable in a slowly-run race over that longer distance. ASTRO KING is best judged on his excellent second to subsequent Listed winner REAL WORLD in the Royal Hunt Cup over 1,600m at Ascot.
LA TRINIDAD is something of a York specialist, having run seven times here in the last 13 months, during which time he boasted two wins over 1,761m and 1,575m, and also two places. He is climbing up the handicap but still looks to be improving.
IRISH ADMIRAL has proved expensive to follow since he won his novice on the tapeta at Wolverhampton over 1,729m in April. However, he remains an unexposed 4YO and caught the eye at York over 2,051m in his first handicap at the big May meeting, coming from off the pace to finish third, since when he has been frustrating.
ORBAAN looks to have a better chance than his likely odds might suggest. He took time to adjust to the UK scene, having won twice in France for Andre Fabre, including in Listed grade over 1,600m at Saint-Cloud. But ORBAAN won at York over 1,600m last year for his new connections, and, having finished fifth in the Lincoln over 1,600m at Doncaster in the spring, he looked to be nearing his peak when a closing sixth at Goodwood over 1,600m, where his slow start proved costly.
If AMETIST hadn’t run so poorly at Newmarket (July Course) over 1,400m last month, he would surely be one of the market leaders for this. That’s because he had rattled off four victories in a row previously and looked a handicapper very much on the upgrade. It was his win over the same distance at Newmarket (July Course) in June, which really caught the eye as he looked all at sea for much of the contest, but somehow managed to get up in the closing stages. If that poor run last time was just a blip, he has to be a player here.
SELECTIONS: 5. ASTRO KING, 14. LA TRINIDAD, 6. ORBAAN, 17. IRISH ADMIRAL & 18. AMETIST
S2-4 Yorkshire Oaks
All eyes will be on SNOWFALL in this year’s renewal of the G1 Yorkshire Oaks over 2,371m. The standout star of her division will bid for an Oaks treble having already dominated in the G1 Oaks Stakes with a record-breaking 16-length victory, and then another wide-margin success in the G1 Irish Oaks. She has been nothing but impressive so far this season since her taking victory in the G3 Musidora Stakes over 2,051m on her seasonal bow here at York, but this trip seems to suit the daughter of DEEP IMPACT better.
It’s hard to look past her in this, but there are some interesting types up against her, including WONDERFUL TONIGHT. The David Menuisier-trained filly is one of two 4YOs to line up here and has done everything right so far this year taking both the G2 Hardwicke Stakes over 2,392m and the G2 Lillie Langtry Stakes over 2,800m. This horse has stamina in abundance, and while she has been labelled as a mud specialist having recorded all of her six victories on either soft or heavy going, she is a worthy challenger to SNOWFALL.
One of those that won’t have concerns about the suitability of conditions is ESHAADA, who was last seen finishing second in the G2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot. Coming from the back of the field that day she picked up well late on to close on the eventual winner, who had the benefit of picking it up from the front that day. That was just her third career run and the first over this distance, so she would have learned plenty. Now stepping into deeper waters, she could give the market principles something to think about if the expected improvement comes.
DIVINELY reopposes here having already contested the Oaks Stakes and Irish Oaks against SNOWFALL. Also trained by O’Brien, the daughter of GALILEO didn’t manage to land a blow on the winner on either occasion but finished best of the rest in the Irish Oaks and managed to take a place in the Yorkshire Oaks.
LOVING DREAM, the aforementioned winner of the G2 Ribblesdale Stakes, rounds off the remainder of the selections. John and Thady Gosden’s filly was a surprise winner that day recording her first victory since taking home a maiden over 1,729m last year. She could be one to consider in this small field if the big guns fail to fire.
SELECTIONS: 7. SNOWFALL, 2. WONDERFUL TONIGHT, 4. ESHAADA & 3. DIVINELY
S2-5 2yo Handicap
2YO handicaps are often tricky events and there are many unexposed types to weigh up here.
ALFLAILA met the rising ground well at Newmarket (July Course) over 1,200m last time out, and finished off best in the field with a strong final 400m of 23.35s. He was beaten by a highly progressive filly, MAJESTIC GLORY that day, who has gone on to win a G3 next time out. His opening mark looks lenient, so Owen Burrows’ colt could be one of the better handicapped runners in this field. Given the way he finished last time this step up to 1,400m is a positive and with natural improvement he should go close.
Andrew Balding has one of the best crops of 2YOs in Britain this season and he fields an interesting handicap debutante in HARROW. The four-runner Ffos Las race he won last time out is probably better form than it seems, as the third that day FABIOSA, who has run to a consistent level in Listed races this season. HARROW has run into some high-class rivals in previous runs and emerged with enough credit to suggest his opening handicap mark could underestimate him. By American sire EL KABEIR, he may be best suited to fast ground and his form suggests this too.
MAGLEV beat ALFLAILA two starts ago at Yarmouth over 1,203m, but the second mentioned was carrying a penalty for a previous win and is now far better off at the weights. Despite that William Haggas’ colt, a son of ace miler GALILEO GOLD, should be capable of improvement now stepping up to 1,400m.
ASWAN has been consistent since running a good fourth on debut in a strong Yarmouth novice race over 1,403m that has thrown up plenty of winners. He got off the mark first time on nursery handicap debut at Goodwood over 1,400m and hasn’t been too harshly treated by the handicapper for that success. This looks a stronger race however, and he may be vulnerable to something less exposed.
BASTOGNE was one of the runners who finished off well after being held up early on at Goodwood, and nearly caught ASWAN near the line. David Evans, runner has also been hit by a small rise in the weights but has the services of claimer Kieran Schofield in the saddle and can go well again.
SELECTIONS: 3. ALFLAILA, 6. HARROW, 2. MAGLEV, 4. ASWAN & 10. BASTOGNE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-5:
Banker – 3. ALFLAILA
Selections – 6. HARROW, 2. MAGLEV, 4. ASWAN & 10. BASTOGNE
S2-6:
Banker – 7. ABSTINENCE
Selections – 8. BRUNNERA, 11. PORTFOLIO, 1. AMMA GRACE & 10. PENNYMOOR
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 3. ALFLAILA, 6. HARROW & 2. MAGLEV
S2-6: Multiple – 7. ABSTINENCE, 8. BRUNNERA & 11. PORTFOLIO
S2-7: Multiple – 8. SPIRIT OF BERMUDA, 3. STAR OF EMARAATY & 9. SWEET ENOUGH
S2-6 Galtres Stakes
ABSTINENCE looks well up to this Listed level in the 2,371m Galtres Stakes. She got off the mark in a decent polytrack novice race at Chelmsford in May despite finding the 1,600m distance way too sharp. Ralph Beckett threw her into the deep end for a G3 over 2,038m at Newcastle on her next start and she was far from disgraced when fourth behind ZEYAADAH. The winner went on to be runner-up in the G1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood so the form looks good and she stayed on from a poor position when third in a good Newmarket (July Course) Listed contest over 2,400m on her turf debut last time out. 3YOs have dominated this race in recent years with just three older fillies landing this prize in the last 20 years so everything is in place for a big run.
BRUNNERA has been progressing well in handicaps. She was a bit keen when runner-up behind PORTFOLIO in a small-field fillies and mares’ handicap over 2,000m at Newmarket (July Course) last month. It’s hard to know what she achieved when landing a three-runner 2,000m Newmarket (July Course) contest, but she is well bred and should love going up to 2,371m for the first time.
PORTFOLIO had the run of the race out in front when beating BRUNNERA in that 2,000m race in July and things didn’t drop as well when returned to Newmarket (July Course) for the Listed Chalice Stakes over 2,400m two weeks later. She sat a bit too close to the decent pace but still put in a solid effort to be beaten less than a length by SAVE A FOREST in what was a hot race for the grade. This sort of test should suit Sir Michael Stoute’s filly.
AMMA GRACE had some smart form last season, including when runner-up in a Curragh G2 over 2,000m before landing a Listed race over 2,000m at Leopardstown. Her comeback run over 1,891m at Gowran Park was too bad to be true and there was a lot to like about the way she finished her race when fourth in a Cork G3 when upped to 2,400m recently.
PENNYMOOR appreciated the step up to 2,399m for the first time when landing a novice race on Kempton’s polytrack by more than nine lengths two weeks ago. She has an exceptional pedigree and has the potential to be better than this class in time.
SELECTIONS: 7. ABSTINENCE, 8. BRUNNERA, 11. PORTFOLIO, 1. AMMA GRACE & 10. PENNYMOOR
S2-7 3yo+ Fillies & Mares Handicap
This 1,400m 3yo+ Fillies & Mares Handicap looks an ideal race for SPIRIT OF BERMUDA to continue her progress. She refused to race after getting upset in the stalls in a 1,599m handicap at Redcar in April, but she hasn’t looked back since. There was no sign of her moody behaviour before her next race when she made all the running to land a 1,400m fillies’ handicap at Leicester in June. Her next start was even better as she saw off subsequent winner RISING STAR and STAR OF EMARAATY in a competitive race over 1,400m at Newmarket (July Course). There is surely more to come from William Haggas’ filly.
STAR OF EMARAATY was poorly positioned in rear in that Newmarket (July Course) contest before staying on well into third in the closing stages. John and Thady Gosden’s runner failed to see out the 1,600m of the G1 1000 Guineas at Newmarket earlier in the season and then got bogged down on the heavy ground when well beaten in the Sandringham Stakes over 1,600m at Royal Ascot. Her victory in the G3 Sweet Solera Stakes over 1,400m at Newmarket when trained by Kevin Ryan last year shows she has the potential to be better than a handicapper.
The Gosden’s second string, SWEET ENOUGH, made all the running to get off the mark at the fourth attempt in a 1,400m maiden at Newmarket (July Course) in July. She followed up on her handicap debut when upped to 1,603m at Yarmouth in the manner of an improving filly. The return to 1,400m won’t do her any harm at all.
IMPROVISED is unbeaten on turf having won all three of her races since her fifth on tapeta over 1,218m at Wolverhampton on her debut in May. Her first two wins came over around 1,200m but she enjoyed the step up to 1,403m when completing a hat-trick of wins on her handicap debut at Epsom last month. She is at the right end of the weights.
SELECTIONS: 8. SPIRIT OF BERMUDA, 3. STAR OF EMARAATY, 9. SWEET ENOUGH & 13. IMPROVISED
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