 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Nunthorpe Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 3yo+ 0-105 Handicap
There are few horses as progressive as WINK OF AN EYE. He completed a superb four-timer when seeing off STATE OF BLISS in a Goodwood handicap last month. That was his first try over 2,240m and this slightly longer distance of 2,371m should suit him well. He only tends to win by small margins so the handicapper finds it hard to hammer him despite his winning streak. Incredibly, he is better off at the weights with STATE OF BLISS on their Goodwood running. That's because STATE OF BLISS won well over 2,392m at Ascot's Shergar Cup meeting.
It ended an exasperating run of places over middle-distances for Mark Johnston's runner but the victory might not have been as impressive as it looked. The leaders went off way too fast and the race was set up perfectly for him. He's a reliable performer, who simply loves to gallop, and he shouldn't finish far behind WINK OF AN EYE on the form book.
STRAWBERRY ROCK ended last season with a couple of disappointing efforts on soft ground but he looked a smart prospect when making a winning return over 2,290m at Windsor in June. He was well fancied to add to that success when favourite for a 2,400m Newmarket (July Course) handicap last month but he couldn't cope with UNTOLD STORY in the closing stages. The winner is useful on his day so that was a decent effort and STRAWBERRY ROCK is still capable of more improvement with just seven starts behind him.
JOHNNY DRAMA confirmed his liking for this track when landing the prestigious John Smith's Cup over 2,051m here in July. The heavy ground was against him when fourth behind useful MIGRATION over 1,979m at Goodwood last month. He's won three times at around 2,400m distance on the polytrack so it's hard to see how he won't run well.
DARK JEDI, runner-up in this race 12 months ago, enjoyed a fine season last year. He went on to make subsequent three-times G3 winner EUCHEN GLEN dig deep for victory at Haydock over 2,800m. He won nicely over 2,409m at Ripon last month and he didn't have the race run to suit when third over 2,796m at Musselburgh two weeks ago. The likely stronger pace should help Tim Easterby's runner.
SELECTIONS: 17. WINK OF AN EYE, 15. STATE OF BLISS, 11. STRAWBERRY ROCK, 1. JOHNNY DRAMA & 9. DARK JEDI
S1-2 Lonsdale Cup
Only five runners for this G2 Lonsdale Cup and ground conditions look set to play a huge part in the outcome.
STRADIVARIUS missed the G1 Goodwood Cup due to testing ground but is set to return with more favourable quick conditions at York. He is now a 7YO and there are some concerns that his dominance of the staying division may be coming to an end, especially after an underwhelming display in the G1 Gold Cup over 3,991m. However, there were excuses for him that day, as he was hampered and got caught too far back off the home turn. York's long straight will allow rider Frankie Dettori more time to work into the race and he should have every chance of showing whether his famous turn of foot is still as potent as it was before.
Several challengers to STRADIVARIUS' dominance have emerged this season, notably Alan King's TRUESHAN who stuck on strongly to score in the Goodwood Cup despite being keen in the early stages. This son of PLANTEUR is a horse who needs some ease in the ground to be seen at his best however, so with a settled forecast it looks as though conditions will be against him.
One runner that will appreciate fast ground is SPANISH MISSION, who looked better than ever this season when winning the G2 Yorkshire Cup Stakes over 2,771m in May. Andrew Balding's runner then finished one place ahead of STRADIVARIUS in the Gold Cup in June, running on from a similar position at the back of the field. Like his famous rival, SPANISH MISSION is also a stayer with a turn of foot and there may not be much between them once again. With some doubts still hanging over the favourite, he looks to offer some value in this field.
Willie Mullins' runners have to be respected in big staying races and he runs STRATUM, who finished second in this race last season. That effort shows he is not out of place in this company and his form on the flat this season has been strong too. Last see staying on well to defeat a progressive rival in the Queen Alexandra Stakes over 4,330m at Royal Ascot, he clearly relished that extreme test of stamina. Now back at this trip of 3,251m he is likely to find his rivals have too much pace for him in the latter stages.
SELECTIONS: 2. SPANISH MISSION, 3. STRADIVARIUS, 1. TRUESHAN & 4. STRATUM
S1-3 Gimcrack Stakes
The G2 Gimcrack Stakes is often won by a top sprinter of the future and LUSAIL looks very much in that mould.
LUSAIL won over this same course on his debut before finishing third behind ANGEL BLEU over 1,200m at Pontefract in May. That might have been a little disappointing at the time but the winner went on to land the G2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood. LUSAIL made all on his next start to land a 1,400m novice race at Newmarket (July Course), but he showed he was more of a sprinter when showing good pace to win the G2 July Stakes over 1,200m at Newmarket (July Course). He is very useful.
BERKSHIRE SHADOW has some smart form in the book. He stepped up on his 1,031m debut win at Newbury to beat ELDRICKJONES into second in the G2 Coventry Stakes over 1,200m at Royal Ascot with a storming late burst. The ground was too soft for Andrew Balding's 2YO colt when upped to 1,400m for the G2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood but he still ran well to finish runner-up behind ANGEL BLEU. This sharp 1,200m might not be ideal but he has the class to be involved in the finish.
GIS A SUB was nailed on the line by the useful BOSH on his debut over 1,200m at York in June and there was a lot to like about his Pontefract conditions race win over 1,200m later in the month. Having made the running he held on well when challenged in the closing stages. Things didn't go to plan when upped in grade for the G2 Richmond Stakes over 1,200m at Goodwood but he should get a stronger pace to aim at this time.
FEARBY should appreciate stepping up to 1,200m for the first time. His Wetherby maiden win came over 1,100m and he bolted up by five lengths in a 1,009m Sandown Listed prize three weeks later. He was messed around in the closing stages when runner-up behind ARMOR in the G3 Molecomb Stakes over 1,000m at Goodwood. This longer distance will help.
This is a rise in grade for AMERICAN STAR but he has shown a lot of ability in novice races and maiden. He needs to improve to be competitive at this level but he was successful over 1,200m at Salisbury last month in the manner of a progressive youngster.
SELECTIONS: 2. LUSAIL, 1. BERKSHIRE SHADOW, 6. GIS A SUB, 5. FEARBY & 3. AMERICAN STAR
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3:
Banker – 2. LUSAIL
Selections – 1. BERKSHIRE SHADOW, 6. GIS A SUB, 5. FEARBY & 3. AMERICAN STAR
S1-4:
Banker – 7. GOLDEN PAL
Selections – 13. SUESA, 15. CHIPOTLE, 14. WINTER POWER & 6. DRAGON SYMBOL
S1-4 Nunthorpe Stakes
The 1,000m G1 Nunthorpe Stakes is one of the highlights of the entire Ebor Festival at York and this year's edition looks a real cracker.
GOLDEN PAL looks the obvious place to start. The American speedster will be making only his second start on British soil having just been touched off by a neck in the G2 Norfolk Stakes over 1,000m at Royal Ascot last year. He's won three times since, including the G2 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint over 1,100m and most recently the G3 Quick Call Stakes over 1,100m at Saratoga. The son of UNCLE MO has been described as the best horse Wesley Ward has ever trained and he looks sure to play a big role.
The 1,000m G2 King George Stakes winner SUESA could be the one to chase him home. The 3YO began this season with two G3 successes over 1,100m and 1,200m at Chantilly, before disappointing in the G1 Commonwealth Cup over 1,200m subsequently. She was very impressive last time in the aforementioned King George Stakes at Goodwood and looks set to go well, though quick ground would be an unknown for the daughter of NIGHT OF THUNDER.
CHIPOTLE might be a big price, but he looks worthy of consideration given the weight he'll receive for being a 2YO. He has plenty of experience for a horse of his age too having run six times so far and was particularly impressive at Royal Ascot in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes over 1,000m earlier this season. That was a very taking display and he could ruffle a few feathers with conditions that look set to be in his favour.
WINTER POWER has a solid record at York having won two of her three starts at the track. She ended her 2020 campaign with a fantastic three-length win in the G3 Cornwallis Stakes over 1,000m at Newmarket and has backed that up with two Listed victories over 1,000m. The major concern with her is that she struggled when tested in G1 company earlier.
The placings can be completed by DRAGON SYMBOL. The son of CABLE BAY has been incredibly consistent in his career so far having only finished first or second in his eight career starts. He doesn't seem to run a bad race, but probably needs to do a bit more to trouble the market principles here.
SELECTIONS: 7. GOLDEN PAL, 13. SUESA, 15. CHIPOTLE, 14. WINTER POWER & 6. DRAGON SYMBOL
S1-5 2yo Maiden
This is one of the top maidens of the season and often won by a Group-class horse.
BROADSPEAR looks to be heading in that direction if his debut second behind SEATTLE KING over 1,394m at Salisbury is anything to go by. He came well clear of the third-placed ALREADY GONE in the closing stages and he should improve quite a lot for his first run. His trainer Roger Varian is in red-hot form and he won this race with a similar type in MOLATHAM two years ago.
HOO YA MAL found himself in a poor position in the early stages of his debut over 1,400m at Sandown on heavy ground. He did well to finish third behind two more experienced 2YOs and it looked a decent race. The less-demanding conditions should be in his favour and he will take a good step forward on this second start. His grandam, ONE SO WONDERFUL, won the G1 International Stakes at this track 23 years ago so he's got the pedigree for the job.
Richard Hannon's DAWN OF LIBERATION is a half-brother to TOORMORE, who was a G1 winner as a 2YO. He made a good debut when third behind REACH FOR THE MOON and HARROW over 1,400m at Newbury last month. The two horses to finish in front of him had already shown smart form so it was a decent effort. There's plenty of reasons to expect better this time so he has to be considered.
Hannon also runs the unraced SHARVARA. He's a nephew of the top-class miler CANFORD CLIFFS, so on pedigree he looks the pick of the newcomers. It's interesting that his trainer has decided to throw him into what is traditionally a very strong maiden so he must have seen something on the gallops that has impressed him. Having experience is usually an advantage in this type of race but Hannon generally has his horses well educated at home.
VELAZQUEZ finished in front of HOO YA MAL when runner-up behind EL BODEGON over 1,400m at Sandown last month. John and Thady Gosden's colt had already had the benefit of a run going into that race and he was better positioned than Andrew Balding's debutant. It was still a nice step forward from VELAZQUEZ and he should appreciate the better ground.
SELECTIONS: 3. BROADSPEAR, 10. HOO YA MAL, 5. DAWN OF LIBERATION, 13. SHARVARA & 15. VELAZQUEZ
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 3. BROADSPEAR
Selections – 10. HOO YA MAL, 5. DAWN OF LIBERATION, 13. SHARVARA & 15. VELAZQUEZ
S1-6:
Banker – 10. JEWEL IN MY CROWN
Selections – 5. ACHELOIS, 12. GOLDEN MELODY, 11. UMNEYAAT & 9. SEA LA ROSA
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 3. BROADSPEAR, 10. HOO YA MAL & 5. DAWN OF LIBERATION
S1-6: Multiple – 10. JEWEL IN MY CROWN, 5. ACHELOIS & 12. GOLDEN MELODY
S1-7: Multiple – 4. ROYAL FLEET, 2. STAR OF ORION & 6. WISHAAH
S1-6 3yo+ Fillies & Mares 81-100 Handicap
This 2,051m handicap for fillies and mares provides another opportunity for the 3YOs to tackle the older horses with a handy weight concession.
Spear-heading the Classic generation's chances is ACHELOIS for the red-hot Andrew Balding stable. The daughter of ZOFFANY has recorded three wins from five starts so far this campaign, including last time out over 1,979m at Goodwood. She was always in command that day and may be good enough to strike for a fourth time this season despite rising steadily in the handicap. The negatives would be that she now races off a career-high mark, while she's unproven on quick ground.
JEWEL IN MY CROWN is an interesting contender for Rae Guest, who does so well with his fillies. Like ACHELOIS, she's also won three from five this term and looks progressive. She moves well on good or better ground and is already twice a winner over 2,045m, so she's guaranteed to see out the trip and appreciate underfoot conditions. This represents a big step up in grade, having previously won at Class 5 and Class 4 level, but she remains unexposed and could take full advantage of her current mark.
SEA LA ROSA, a daughter of SEA THE STARS and carrying the same silks, catches the eye and arrives on the back of a win over 2,001m at Redcar last time out. She was stepping down from 2,400m that day and unsurprisingly saw the trip out well, pulling away in the final 200m to hit the line strongly. On that evidence she may need to be stepped back up in distance to be seen to full affect.
UMNEYAAT finally broke her maiden at the eighth time of asking last time out over 1,914m at Ballinrobe. That win felt overdue given she had some useful juvenile form and was fourth to subsequent Royal Ascot winner CREATE BELIEF in a competitive handicap two starts back. She remains of interest of what could be a low mark, but, like SEA LA ROSA, may be even better when stepped up to 2,400m.
At the foot of the weights with Cam Hardie in the saddle is GOLDEN MELODY. As a 2YO trained by William Haggas, she won a 1,200m maiden and finished seventh in the 1,200m G3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. A year later and she's developing into a nice middle-distance performer for Tim Easterby. She won her first start over 1,598m at Thirsk two starts back and then took another step forward by winning over 1,691m at Beverley last time out. That was a narrow victory and she hasn't been punished by the handicapper as a result, so it would be no surprise to see her make a bold hat-trick bid.
SELECTIONS: 10. JEWEL IN MY CROWN, 5. ACHELOIS, 12. GOLDEN MELODY, 11. UMNEYAAT & 9. SEA LA ROSA
S1-7 3yo 0-105 Handicap
This race is typically won by a Group horse and several in this field look to have the potential to match that description.
After only three career starts, ROYAL FLEET is still learning the racing game. He pulled hard on handicap debut at Newmarket (July Course) over 1,600m and showed his inexperience towards the finish when wandering under pressure, but still managed to get the better of a strong field. We still don't know how good this son of DUBAWI could be and a moderate rise in the weights doesn't look enough to hinder further progression.
STAR OF ORION got going just too late in the day over 1,400m in a handicap at Ascot last time. Trainer Ralph Beckett tested this horse in G3 company at the end of last season and it seems to be only a matter of time before he returns to that grade. While a step up in trip looks to suit, this is a horse with a rapid turn of foot so his stamina may be stretched if this contest is soundly run. He has also been hit with a sizable rise in the weights for his last run, which slightly weakens his appeal.
Owen Burrows looks to have a smart gelding on his hands in WISHAAH, who comfortably accounted for two subsequent winners at Newmarket (July Course) over 1,600m on his handicap debut. Using time as a guide the race WISHAAH won was run only 0.38s slower than the time recorded by ROYAL FLEET. There may not be much between them, with the former receiving weight in the handicap from his Godolphin rival.
ISLA KAI looks a likely pace angle here and he will be dangerous if given too much time on the lead. That was the case last time at Ascot over 1,594m, where he dictated the fractions and was strong at the finish. With the two horses who chased him home winning next time out in good handicaps, that looks excellent form.
On collateral form with the aforementioned rival, MARSABIT makes some appeal. He produced a bold front-running display when last seen at Ascot over 1,600m, only going down narrowly at the finish. After only a minor rise in the rating he can go well again, but the fact he is unlikely to get his own way out in front suggests he will struggle to better his placing from last time.
SELECTIONS: 4. ROYAL FLEET, 2. STAR OF ORION, 6. WISHAAH, 8. ISLA KAI & 12. MARSABIT
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