Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

Expert Column for Irish Champion Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)

 

S1-1 Ingabelle Stakes

 

Aidan O’Brien has won the last two renewals of this 2YO fillies’ Listed race over 1,434m and he looks to have outstanding claims once again with the once raced LULLABY. This daughter of GALILEO was pitched into a G3 over 1,600m on her debut, suggesting she is held in very high regard at Ballydoyle, and ran a nice race to finish fourth. She improved to challenge entering the final 400m that day, but her run faded towards the finish, which gives hope that this drop in trip may be more in her favour. She will have learned plenty from her last start and wouldn’t need to improve much to win this.

A strong gallop is sure to be set by Mrs John Harrington’s CORVIGLIA, who made all to win in impressive style at Roscommon over 1,458m last time, where she only had to be pushed out to score. Although on the small side, this KARAKONTIE filly clearly has a big heart and keeps improving with every run. If the others give her too much time to find her stride out in front, she could prove difficult to pass.

LIMITI DI GRECCIO is closely matched with CORVIGLIA on their meeting over 1,418m at this course in July, when the Harrington filly again took the race from the front. Both fillies were having their second runs that day, but LIMITI DE GRECCIO made up eye-catching ground once pulled to the outside of the field in the home straight. She moved yards after that run, joining up-and-coming trainer Paddy Twomey, and she looked to have improved for that stable switch when winning a maiden at Leopardstown over 1,400m last time out with something in hand. With more improvement expected, she could well be there at the finish.

Perhaps the filly with most scope for progression is Noel Meade’s LADY OF INISHFREE, who got trapped behind runners against the rail on debut at Gowran Park over 1,400m, but once in the clear flew home late and would have finished considerably closer if getting a run. The winner of that race was not disgraced in the G2 Debutante Stakes on her next run, so the form may prove to be strong.

Ger Lyons’ PANAMA RED has looked progressive in three starts to date and won well over 1,500m at Tipperary last time, but that form looks a bit below what her main rivals have achieved.

 

SELECTIONS: 6. LULLABY, 2. CORVIGLIA, 5. LIMITI DI GRECCIO, 4. LADY OF INISHFREE & 9. PANAMA RED

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-1:   
Banker – 6. LULLABY
Selections – 2. CORVIGLIA, 5. LIMITI DI GRECCIO, 4. LADY OF INISHFREE & 9. PANAMA RED
S1-2:   
Banker – 9. ONCE UPON A RIVER
Selections – 1. ABSOLUTE RULER, 8. MARITIME WINGS, 3. BUCKAROO & 10. STONE AGE

 

S1-2 Golden Fleece Stakes

 

ONCE UPON A RIVER looks well up to this G2 level in the Golden Fleece Stakes over 1,600m. Ger Lyons’ youngster has a beautiful pedigree as the son of top-class sprinter CASSANDRA GO which makes him a half-brother to multiple G1-winning juvenile HALFWAY TO HEAVEN.

His close third on debut over 1,400m at Gowran Park in June was most promising. Poorly positioned in the early stages when taking on mostly experienced rivals, he just couldn’t quite get to the frontrunning HADMAN, but he was closing on the winner all the way to the line. It was no surprise to see him step up on that run when ridden much more prominently to easily land a Roscommon maiden over 1,457m two weeks later. He looks very smart and the step up to 1,600m won’t be a problem.

There was a lot to like about the way ABSOLUTE RULER made a winning debut over 1,600m on the polytrack at Dundalk last month. He travelled well just behind the pacesetters and found plenty in the closing stages to see off some more experienced rivals. That was the performance of a horse with a bright future so it’s no surprise Donnacha O’Brien has chosen to pitch him straight into this G2 race.

His older brother Joseph O’Brien runs MARITIME WINGS. He showed a great turn of pace when making a winning debut over 1,365m at Leopardstown in June and he has come up against top 2YO POINT LONSDALE on his last two starts. He was clear second best in both the G3 Tyros Stakes over 1,418m at Leopardstown and the Curragh’s G2 Futurity Stakes. That form makes him a contender.

Joseph O’Brien also runs BUCKAROO who didn’t really handle the track at Killarney in July but still did enough to break his duck at the second attempt. The 1,666m distance of that maiden looked the bare minimum for this strong stayer. He might lack the pace of some of his rivals but he will keep galloping all the way to the winning line.

Aidan O’Brien’s best chance seems to be STONE AGE. He was only beaten a neck by BUCKAROO over 1,666m at Galway but the winner was value for further than the official winning distance. That gives STONE AGE a bit to find but 2YOs from his stable have a habit of improving with every run.

 

SELECTIONS: 9. ONCE UPON A RIVER, 1. ABSOLUTE RULER, 8. MARITIME WINGS, 3. BUCKAROO & 10. STONE AGE

 

S1-3 Matron Stakes

 

MOTHER EARTH will be running in her ninth straight G1 contest in this 1,600m event. In the last eight starts, seven of those have come over this distance, of which she’s yet to finish outside of the first three, while the only blip in her form came over 1,400m last September in Moyglare Stud Stakes. She’s the most proven performer in the field and deserves her place at the head of the betting.

Aidan O’Brien, who last won this race in 2017 with HYDRANGEA, also fields EMPRESS JOSEPHINE. The former got up in the final strides to land the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas over this trip but has since disappointed. She finished down the field in the G1 Coronation Stakes over 1,594m at Ascot but can be part-excused for that under par run as she was very keen in the early stages, while she was then a tailed-off last of six in the G1 Nassau Stakes over 1,979m at Goodwood. The step back to 1,600m should suit but the other concern is the ground – all of her best form is on soft ground and she may not get those conditions here.

PEARLS GALORE has looked highly progressive in three starts this season, winning two G3’s over 1,400m and 1,500m most recently. At Tipperary last time out, she produced a good finishing kick to clear away from her rivals, suggesting there could be more to come now upped in trip to 1,600m. Her trainer Paddy Twomey is operating at a 29 percent strike rate this season and his filly deserves to take her chance at G1 level. She looks to need quick ground, however, so any serious rain would damage her chances.

Last year’s winner CHAMPERS ELYSEES could well feature. She’s been highly-tried again this season but has failed to get her head in front in five starts despite running with plenty of credit. She’s a winner from 1,200m to 1,600m and handles all types of ground.

Joseph O’Brien’s PRETTY GORGEOUS is yet to recapture her G1-winning 2YO form at three. She’s jumped off favourite for three of her four starts this season, so clearly connections feel she still retains plenty of ability, but she has been largely disappointing. Though risky for win purposes, she could sneak into the placings if running back to form.

 

SELECTIONS:10. MOTHER EARTH, 1. CHAMPERS ELYSEES, 4. PEARLS GALORE, 7. EMPRESS JOSEPHINE & 12. PRETTY GORGEOUS

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3:   
Banker – 10. MOTHER EARTH
Selections – 1. CHAMPERS ELYSEES, 4. PEARLS GALORE, 7. EMPRESS JOSEPHINE & 12. PRETTY GORGEOUS
S1-4:   
Banker – 3. MAKER OF KINGS
Selections – 6. MAC SWINEY, 12. SNAPRAETEREA, 4. NJORD & 11. MILITARY STYLE

 

S1-4 Solonaway Stakes

 

MAKER OF KINGS has been a model of consistency in four starts this season, winning once and finishing a narrow second on the other three occasions. The last twice he has made the step up from handicaps to Group company and winning a G3 over the same course and distance in May, before staying on strongly over 1,800m last time when just denied at the finish. With a good pace likely in this 1,600m G2 contest, it could set up well for Ger Lyons’ runner and he should have every chance of adding a G2 to his CV.

Forecast rain could dramatically alter the complexion of this race and if it did arrive the horse to benefit would be MAC SWINEY. Jim Bolger’s colt is far better in soft ground, as he showed when winning the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas in May, and since then he has not had his optimum conditions. Despite that he has run respectably in three top-class contests most recently, so if the ground comes for him, combined with this drop in class, it would make him the one to beat. The drop back to 1,600m is another interesting angle, as he is two from two over this trip.

Another who would be suited by the ground easing is SNAPRAETEREA, who looked better than ever when making all the running to win over 1,400m at Cork last time. A habitual front runner, he may get an easy lead once again and if in the same form as last time he should go well. 1,600m has seemed to stretch his stamina in the past, however, so he may be vulnerable to something finishing from the back of the field.

NJORD didn’t have the pace to win over 1,400m on good ground in the G2 Hungerford Stakes when last seen, but he still ran a decent race to finish third behind two progressive rivals. This son of RODERIC O’CONNOR looks worth another try over 1,600m and should be capable of hitting the frame.

MILITARY STYLE is a fascinating runner on his seasonal return. He won on debut last season before going on to land a G3 over 1,400m, beating a subsequent G1 winner in the process. While he clearly goes well when fresh, this looks a tough ask after so long off the track and he is likely to find a few too good.

 

SELECTIONS: 3. MAKER OF KINGS, 6. MAC SWINEY, 12. SNAPRAETEREA, 4. NJORD & 11. MILITARY STYLE

 

S1-5 Irish Champion Stakes

 

You just have to look back through this race’s roll of honour to see the calibre of horse required to win it.

Aidan O’Brien has won the 2,000m G1 contest nine times, most recently with MAGICAL in both 2019 and 2020, and he’ll be hoping to extend his fantastic record with ST MARK’S BASILICA. Always highly regarded, the son of SIYOUNI didn’t perhaps hit the levels expected of him for much of his 2YO career. However, he was a taking winner of the G1 Dewhurst Stakes over 1,400m on his final start of last season and has never looked back winning all three of his races, all at G1 level, this campaign. The most recent of those came in the G1 Eclipse Stakes at Sandown over 1,990m, and it will take a good one to stop him making it four in a row.

However, in TARNAWA he looks to have a very worthy challenger. Dermot Weld’s 5YO mare turned inside out last year winning all four of her races, three at G1 level, including the 2,400m Breeders’ Cup Turf. She bolted up on her return this season in the G3 Ballyroan Stakes over 2,400m, which should have left her spot on for this. The major concern for Weld’s contender is that she does have to give weight away to the likes of ST MARK’S BASILICA and POETIC FLARE.

Speaking of POETIC FLARE, he’s another who looks sure to go well. The 3YO has enjoyed a remarkably consistent season which has seen him run no less than seven times, with the last six being in G1 contests. He won both the G1 2000 Guineas over 1,600m and G1 St James’s Palace Stakes over 1,594m and although this step up to 2,000m is an unknown, his win in the latter contest suggested he should have the required stamina. Jim Bolger’s colt is about as tough as they come, but he might just come up short against the top two.

PATRICK SARSFIELD clearly has plenty to do on official figures. The son of AUSTRALIA has a fairly progressive profile in his own right and was a good winner of the G3 Meld Stakes over 1,800m last season, while he was only just touched off in the Listed Wolferton Stakes over 1,993m at Royal Ascot last time. However, he’s taking on some top-class horses here, and looks well up against it even on the pick of his form.

 

SELECTIONS: 2. TARNAWA, 4. ST MARK’S BASILICA & 3. POETIC FLARE

 

S1-6 Kilternan Stakes

 

INNISFREE should love the step up to 2,400m for the first time in this G3 contest. He looked a top prospect when landing the G2 Beresford Stakes for juveniles over 1,600m at the Curragh in 2019. He backed it up by chasing home subsequent 2000 Guineas winner KAMEKO in the G1 Futurity Trophy over 1,605m on Newcastle’s tapeta, but his Classic dreams were dashed when he missed the whole of last season. His return to action behind EARLSWOOD in the G3 Royal Whip Stakes over 2,000m at the Curragh last month was most pleasing. Despite only finishing fifth, he came home well and is sure to appreciate this longer distance.

EARLSWOOD was one of the chief sufferers of a rough race when fourth behind top-class HURRICANE LANE in the G1 Irish Derby over 2,400m at the Curragh in June. He bounced back to land the G3 Royal Whip Stakes over 2,000m at the Curragh with a nice performance and the return to 2,400m shouldn’t be a problem. That win gives him sound claims but he might struggle to confirm the form with INNISFREE.

THUNDER KISS has a decent record over this 2,400m distance. She came home well from the rear to land the G3 Munster Oaks over 2,400m at Cork in June and she ran well dropped to 2,000m when a close fourth in a Curragh G3 a couple of weeks later. The return to 2,400m suited her when she finished runner-up behind smart LA PETITE COCO in a Cork G3 last month and this consistent filly should go well.

FORBEARANCE is progressing nicely. She was too keen when third over 2,800m in the G3 Stanerra Stakes at Leopardstown in July and she looked much happier returned to 2,371m when successful at York last month. Although she just clung on by a nose to land that Listed race, it was a clearly personal best from Mrs John Harrington’s filly.

SIR LAMORAK finished last behind HURRICANE LANE in the G1 Grand Prix de Paris over 2,400m at ParisLongchamp in July but the race didn’t set up for his hold-up style and the very soft ground was against him. He was a bit unlucky in the King George V Stakes over 2,392m at Royal Ascot on quicker ground in June and that effort suggests he’s worth a crack at this G3 level.

 

SELECTIONS: 2. INNISFREE, 8. EARLSWOOD, 5. THUNDER KISS, 6. FORBEARANCE & 9. SIR LAMORAK

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 2. INNISFREE, 8. EARLSWOOD & 5. THUNDER KISS
S1-7: Multiple – 10. PHOENIX COWBOY, 1. EVER PRESENT & 16. CIEL D’AFRIQUE
S1-8: Multiple – 4. MASEN, 7. SURROUNDING & 10. RIOT

 

S1-7 3yo 0-105 Handicap

 

PHOENIX COWBOY has been in great form this season and he looks to have a sound chance of making it three wins for the year in this ultra-competitive handicap over 2,564m. Ger Lyons’ stayer made a winning return over 2,554m at Ballinrobe in June and he was a little unlucky not to follow up over 2,515m at the same course in July when beaten a neck by ONLY SKY. The way he drew right away in the closing stages when successful over 2,491m at Gowran Park last month was most impressive and he could easily be better than a handicapper.

EVER PRESENT is also in great form. He won a National Hunt Flat race last year and he’s done well since switching to the Flat. The form of his easy 3,000m maiden win at Leopardstown in June has worked out well and he had little trouble following up three weeks later at the same venue over the same distance. He again travelled like a class horse over 3,200m at the Curragh but he was just outstayed when runner-up behind DINARD ROSE. The drop to 2,564m for the first time should suit him well.

CIEL D’AFRIQUE has some smart maiden form to his name but he has not helped himself by pulling too hard in the early stages. He was runner-up four times over around 2,400m before finally getting off the mark with a smooth Roscommon victory over 2,400m last month. It’s interesting that trainer Dermot Weld now puts a hood on him to help calm him down on this first try over 2,564m.

SHOSHONE WARRIOR likes this track. His only victory came at this venue last year and he was only beaten three-quarters of a length behind EVER PRESENT over 3,000m here in July when he only faded into third close home. He showed a good attitude when third over 3,364m at Killarney last month and he should be involved in the finish.

ROYAL ILLUSION appears to be running into form. He wasn’t disgraced in a hot 3,363m handicap at Galway in July and he was only half-a-length behind SHOSHONE WARRIOR when fourth over 3,364m at Killarney last time out. The drop to 2,564m and prospect of a strong pace should suit Willie Mullins’ hurdles winner.

 

SELECTIONS: 10. PHOENIX COWBOY, 1. EVER PRESENT, 16. CIEL D’AFRIQUE, 5. SHOSHONE WARRIOR & 9. ROYAL ILLUSION

 

S1-8     3yo+ Handicap

3YOs have won five of the last ten renewals of this 1,434m handicap and the lightly raced MASEN has to be high on the list. Ger Lyons’ gelding went close in the 1,400m G3 Tyros Stakes on only his second career start as a 2YO and returned with a good run in the Listed Vincent O'Brien Ruby Stakes at Killarney over 1,627m. He looked to race too freely on the lead there and had no response when challenged by a rival inside the final 200m. That was understandable considering it was his first run for 341days and he should be sharper now. It would be no surprise were he to prove better than his opening handicap mark.

SURROUNDING is a tough handicapper who is beginning to look well treated at the weights. Her last two starts have been in Listed and G3 company and she has looked to be running back into form. Last time out she ran a big race at Tipperary over 1,500m, keeping on well for fifth after being caught on the wide outside of the field from a bad draw. Michael Halford’s 8YO is a course winner who has won off higher ratings in the past over 1,400m, so everything looks right for a big run back in a handicap.

MIRAMIS was not far behind SURROUNDING last time at Tipperary, where she produced an impressive run on only her sixth career start. Judged on that, the opening handicap mark could have underestimated her, but she has a poor draw to overcome and that means she is opposable for the win.

RIOT finished a good third in the Buckingham Palace Stakes over 1,400m at Royal Ascot when trained by John and Thady Gosden, and the horses that beat him that day have proved to be smart performers. On his first start for new trainer Johnny Murtagh he caught the eye staying on strongly from the back of the field at Dundalk over 1,200m on polytrack, suggesting he should benefit from this step back up in trip. Off the same handicap rating as his Buckingham Palace Stakes run, he looks capable of producing another good show.

UK raiders have a surprisingly good record in this contest and Tom Dascombe’s FOOLS RUSH IN catches the eye. He only got up in the dying strides at Chester over 1,515m last time, but he came with a swooping run from the back off the home turn, something that is tough to do at that tight track. It looked a strong handicap too, so despite his narrow margin of victory, he could be capable of another good run.

 

SELECTIONS: 4. MASEN, 7. SURROUNDING, 10. RIOT, 18. MIRAMIS & 11. FOOLS RUSH IN

 

 

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