 Expert - Brett Davis | |
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| Brett Davis was introduced to Australian Racing by his father back in the early 1980’s when his family became involved in formulating “Thoroughbred Racing Syndications”. Brett worked from 1995 as a Professional Form Analysts and Race Broadcaster with an array of companies throughout most parts of the Australia Racing industry. He currently resides in Adelaide, his hometown in Australia, where he is Chief Thoroughbred Race Caller and Form Analyst for Tabcorp / SkyChannel / RadioTAB. Brett Davis also spent 2 years with the Singapore Turf Club and 13 Racing Seasons with the Hong Kong Jockey Club between 2006 to 2019 as a leading Form Analyst / Race Caller and was the HKJC Chief Race Caller from 2014, calling the last 5 Hong Kong International (Turf World Championships) race meetings and over 50 G1 races. Brett has immense passion for Australian Racing both personally and professionally. With his diverse knowledge and long standing industry relations he’s a valuable asset to racing and it’s enthusiasts. | |
Expert Column for Victoria Derby Day (S1) (Brett Davis)
S1-1 Wakeful Stakes
BARB RAIDER was a dominant winner of the G1 VRC Oaks trial at Flemington in September over 1,800m. Her subsequent run when returning to 1,600m was equally as good in defeat. She arrives in tremendous condition and the step to 2,000m won’t be an issue on pedigree as her father REBEL RAIDER was a Victoria Derby winner.
YEARNING is the clear cut selection to win the traditional lead up to the VRC Oaks following a win in the G1 Thousand Guineas. The Wakeful Stakes distance of 2,000m is the big question mark as she’s bred to be a sprinter or miler. I like the way she settled in her recent win and I expect her to stand up again but the trip is concerning.
EL PATRONESS is raced and trained by the prudent Danny O’Brien stable and the man of the moment Brett Prebble again takes the ride. Her effort in the G3 Caulfield Classic was a perfect lead up to today being 2,000m. GUNSTOCK, the winner of that race is a serious animal and a big Derby chance later in the day. With that in mind and a fitness edge on most she should be right in the finish.
DAISIES couldn’t have been more impressive when winning the G3 Ethereal Stakes last start over the journey of 2,000m. Interestingly the effort was further enhanced after she returned to scale with one less racing shoe. The win was her career best performance to date and she’ll need to step up again but it’s evident the longer races are her forte.
TIZ MY BAY is the runner at a bigger price that could be considered for multiples. She’s yet to win a race but worked to the line nicely at Caulfield last start. It’s clear at this point she lacks the spark and depth to trouble the main players but the longer journey won’t be a problem.
SELECTIONS: 4. BARB RAIDER, 1. YEARNING, 3. EL PATRONESS, 2. DAISIES & 9. TIZ MY BAY
S1-2 Linlithgow Stakes
KEMALPASA is a proven high class sprinter that knows how to win on this day. Last year’s winner has returned bigger physically, stronger mentally and his campaign tuned to the minute. Craig Williams knows exactly what’s required to get him over the line and together they’ll be a formidable combination. He’ll race on speed, as is normally the case, and it’ll take a brilliant horse to beat him.
OXLEY ROAD has youth and ratings on his side and is therefore suited by the weights. A cracking son of EXCEED AND EXCEL this 4YO colt is on the upward spiral and likely to start race favourite. His record at Flemington is solid and he can race on speed which ideally makes him difficult to peg back under the lighter weight.
INSTANT CELEBRITY was a G1 winner over 1,200m last preparation in the Robert Sangster Stakes at Morphettville in South Australia. It was anticipated she’d be one of the most exciting runners during the spring carnival but she’s below her best. A return back in 1,200m and a crack at straight racing could bring about improvement. She’s good enough to win if she recapture anywhere near her best.
JUSTACANTA is an ageing galloper that’s in a purple patch of form. His career form tells us he probably can’t win but he’s a runner that can find a place. He’s been running good strong races over 1,400m and was a dominant winner here at Flemington in a listed contest two runs back.
SELECTIONS: 2. KEMALPASA, 7. OXLEY ROAD, 3. INSTANT CELEBRITY & 8. JUSTACANTA
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 2. KEMALPASA
Selections – 7. OXLEY ROAD, 3. INSTANT CELEBRITY & 8. JUSTACANTA
S1-3:
Banker – 3. TOFANE
Selections – 5. STILL A STAR, 15. STEINEM, 1. COLETTE & 13. FLYING MASCOT
S1-3 Empire Rose Stakes
TOFANE is a multiple G1 winning mare with ability and hasn’t missed a top four finish this preparation. She has notably been up for a while and travelled plenty but copes with those demands like a seasoned professional. Despite the extreme depth of talent that contests this race her current form and rating says she’s the one to beat against her own sex.
STILL A STAR has been a wonderful revelation over the last 12 months and the Tasmanian trained mare arrives back to the Melbourne spring at the peak of her game. Her win in the G2 Rose Of Kingston Stakes at Flemington was a brave and emotional win for all concerned with her career and her winning doesn’t appear to be over just yet. She must lift the bar to a whole new level for this race and I’m not going to tell you she can’t. A settle mid-field with cover approach is her strategy and the Flemington racecourse is the perfect scene for that type of attack.
STEINEM is a highly progressive daughter of FRANKEL with a huge engine and heart. Her lack of overall race experience and physical maturity has held her back to this point but her best is soon to arrive. A chasing second place in the G2 Tristarc Stakes when making a long sustained run and covering ground was a great example of her range. The longer distance shall suit her exceptional pedigree and a big race win is hers soon.
COLETTE showed her class by winning the recent G2 Tristarc Stakes at Caulfield by a widening margin. With over 5-million AUD already accumulated in prize money and a confirmed career at stud in waiting she has nothing to prove. It’s impossible to leave her out of calculations as she’s reliable, gutsy and highly talented. Throughout her career it’s evident she’s more effective and literally unbeatable on wet tracks so any rain and it’s hers to lose.
FLYING MASCOT is trained by Tom Dabernig who was David Hayes long time former training partner in Australia. Her initial form wasn’t up to the bigger races last autumn but a winter spell has done her the world of good. Today’s race is a massive hike in class from her win in the G3 Tesio Stakes but she won like a big player on the rise. It shall be interesting to see how she measures up so a big price and with form she can be entertained.
SELECTIONS: 3. TOFANE, 5. STILL A STAR, 15. STEINEM, 1. COLETTE & 13. FLYING MASCOT
S1-4 Victoria Derby
FORGOT YOU is trained by the astute Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young combination and is already a multiple G2 winner. His victory in the G2 Moonee Valley Vase was sensational when starting race favourite with his closing speed and sectionals most notable. The race distance of 2,500m holds no fears as he settles well and controlled during the run. As a 3YO colt by SAVABEEL a race victory today confirms his future duties at Stud whenever it’s decide he should retire.
GUNSTOCK has furnished in to a genuine Derby chance this campaign which began with a maiden win at Cranbourne in early September. His pedigree is of the highest caliber when it comes to staying races being by TAVISTOCK out of a ZABEEL mare. A dominant winning performance in the recent G3 Caulfield Classic was highlighted by an explosive turn of acceleration the final 300m. His previous experience at Flemington is a big advantage however the wide barrier ensures he’s going to need luck. Had he drawn inside gate 10 I’d have tipped him to win, but he’ll nevertheless take a power of beating.
TUTUKAKA is the winner of the Listed Geelong Classic a race that’s recognised as a traditional lead up for Victoria Derby aspirants. If pedigree is anything to judge he could well be a super star as he’s by TAVISTOCK out of the mare MELEKA BELLE, which makes him a younger half-brother to the remarkable MELODY BELLE. He’s tactically versatile which gives him an edge early on before kicking hard to the line.
AKIHIRO is a son of the great Japanese super star MAURICE who won three G1 races at Shatin all those years ago. He’s considered an outsider on overall form but his latest fourth in the G2 Moonee Valley Vase was better than it reads. He gives the indication he’ll run all day long so the longer and testing journey of 2,500m could well be a blessing.
CERBERUS is bred to a staying/sprinting cross but clearly displays staying as his forte going forward. The Freedman name is legendary in Australian Racing and the team of Anthony and Sam have a Derby contender on their hands. His win in the Listed Hill Smith Stakes in South Australia was gutsy and exciting and it’s a race with form producing Victoria Derby winners in the past. His class and range are going to be stretched to uncharted waters but he’s dealt competently with everything asked to this point.
SELECTIONS: 1. FORGOT YOU, 4. GUNSTOCK, 2. TUTUKAKA, 5. AKIHIRO & 10. CERBERUS
S1-5 Coolmore Stud Stakes (Ascot Vale Stakes)
ARTORIUS has long time been touted a potential star after winning The G1 Blue Diamond Stakes as a 2YO and is not far off such recognition. He’s a genuine back marker that settles conserving energy before unleashing his number one gun of furious finishing acceleration. Against the best in the G1 Caulfield Guineas he was a fabulous third but a length away due to a shorter home straight. However, the famous Flemington racecourse can provide the territory and time he requires to find the line, so expect him to take plenty of holding out.
IN THE CONGO arrives to the Melbourne Spring Carnival as a genuine contender for more feature race success. The Sydney galloper has evolved in to a high cruising machine that already boasts a victory over the best going around in the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill. The draw won’t be any issue with his unrivalled gate speed and it’s going to take a huge effort from any of the opposition to run him down.
PAULELE is trained by James Cummings owned by Godolphin and ridden by Damien Oliver which tells you he’s here to win. With stud options on the table, should he take victory at his first G1 attempt, his preparation has been immaculately timed. A win in Sydney at G2 level previous was just what connections hoped for leading in to this targeted race. His class at the elite level is still under question but the market and betting shall say he can get it done.
EXTREME WARRIOR has returned to racing this campaign with a pair of high quality victories. The maiden win in provincial Victoria first up was excellent but it’s the thrashing of better opponents in the G3 Blue Sapphire Stakes at Caulfield that’s caught people’s attention. He’s an on pace colt that kicks hard off speed and despite today’s contest being his toughest test should be highly respected.
INGRATIATING raced by the famous blue of Godolphin rates as one of the top five contenders on ratings alone. A listed win at his first start set the bar high for his future and he hasn’t let the team down. A glitch two runs back in the G2 Danehill stakes is worthy of forgiveness and was followed by a terrific third at G1 level. His record at Flemington is outstanding and he’s a genuine straight track talent. He’s tactical versatile and the win is within his grasp.
SELECTIONS: 2. ARTORIUS, 4. IN THE CONGO, 6. PAULELE, 9. EXTREME WARRIOR & 3. INGRATIATING
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 2. ARTORIUS
Selections – 4. IN THE CONGO, 6. PAULELE, 9. EXTREME WARRIOR & 3. INGRATIATING
S1-6:
Banker – 14. MR BRIGHTSIDE
Selections – 2. CASCADIAN, 5. BUFFALO RIVER, 3. SUPERSTORM & 6. ARAMAYO
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 2. ARTORIUS, 4. IN THE CONGO & 6. PAULELE
S1-6: Multiple – 14. MR BRIGHTSIDE, 2. CASCADIAN & 5. BUFFALO RIVER
S1-7: Multiple – 5. MINHAAJ, 1. SEPTEMBER RUN & 6. MARBOOSHA
S1-6 Cantala Stakes
MR BRIGHTSIDE arrives ready to attack his first G1 race with an immaculate record of six wins from eight starts. The handicap conditions of this event favour the up and coming and that’s where he fits in. A listed win in the Seymour Cup was an easy watch for favourite backers with the win producing plenty of hype. He’s an on speed runner that can be aided by no attacking speed and from the handy position throughout shall poised then strike and win.
CASCADIAN is no stranger to the grass blades of the Flemington racecourse after he finished third in 2019 and second last year in this very race. It’s fair to say recent form suggests he’s below his best and risky considering he hasn’t won since the G1 Doncaster Mile at Randwick in April. Conversely, he’s raced by Godolphin, trained by James Cummings and trips to Melbourne in the past have been fruitful even when his form has been up and down.
BUFFALO RIVER is a noted front runner who led from start to finish in the recent G3 Moonga Stakes at Caulfield. He also led this race last year at 8/1 in betting before an abundance of mid-race pressure took its toll and he finished well down the track. His form this campaign is again at a high enough level but he must conserve energy at some point mid-race to win.
SUPERSTORM now resides in the stable of Danny O’Brien and the former Western Australian galloper has well and truly paid his way. A runner up in the G1 Australian Guineas as a 3YO confirmed his status as a high caliber thoroughbred. Fabulous performances in the recent G1 Underwood Stakes and G1 Toorak Handicap highlight his well being and that elusive victory at the highest level is now appearing on its way.
ARAMAYO is now trained by Chris Waller and has won black type races in both Australia and Singapore. He’s a regular back marker who’s mostly effective when launching his run at tiring leaders with overwhelming force. This campaign all three runs have been particularly competitive and it’s clear to see his engine is firing on all cylinders. The long Flemington straight shall work for him perfectly and a strong tempo throughout is what he wants.
SELECTIONS: 14. MR BRIGHTSIDE, 2. CASCADIAN, 5. BUFFALO RIVER, 3. SUPERSTORM & 6. ARAMAYO
S1-7 Furphy Sprint (Begonia Belle Stakes)
MINHAAJ is now trained in Sydney by John O’Shea and returned to racing with a terrific win in the G3 The Nivison at Randwick. She now ventures back to Melbourne for the carnival and seems destined to perform well. Flemington straight racing is where she initially made her name and you’d be brave leaving her out of calculations.
SEPTEMBER RUN is the class runner according to the handicappers and I’m not going to disagree. With two wins over the course and distance and a G1 victory already in her back pocket she’s difficult to overlook. Her three runs back this campaign are below her best but the return to Flemington is a major plus.
MARBOOSHA is a very impressive filly who’s still very much on the upward spiral. With a couple of runs under the belt she strips fitter for today’s assignment and should produce depth at the end of this fast run race. Her record at Flemington and 1,100m is superb and she’ll handle any type of ground.
MILEVA was sold by South Australian owners to interstate connections for some decent coin by all reports and she immediately found success. She’s an on speed runner with a big kick at the end and creates some interest for exotics. She’s yet to be tried down the straight at Flemington which does has its challenges, but she arrives at the top of her game.
BLESS HER hasn’t fired at her previous Flemington starts but I’m prepared to overlook those disappointing runs. I expect the outside part of the track to be the best spot by this time of the day and that’s exact where she’ll be situated. Her form leading in is solid after covering ground last start and she’ll be closing in at the end.
SELECTIONS: 5. MINHAAJ, 1. SEPTEMBER RUN, 6. MARBOOSHA, 10. MILEVA & 14. BLESS HER
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