 Expert - Brett Davis | |
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| Brett Davis was introduced to Australian Racing by his father back in the early 1980’s when his family became involved in formulating “Thoroughbred Racing Syndications”. Brett worked from 1995 as a Professional Form Analysts and Race Broadcaster with an array of companies throughout most parts of the Australia Racing industry. He currently resides in Adelaide, his hometown in Australia, where he is Chief Thoroughbred Race Caller and Form Analyst for Tabcorp / SkyChannel / RadioTAB. Brett Davis also spent 2 years with the Singapore Turf Club and 13 Racing Seasons with the Hong Kong Jockey Club between 2006 to 2019 as a leading Form Analyst / Race Caller and was the HKJC Chief Race Caller from 2014, calling the last 5 Hong Kong International (Turf World Championships) race meetings and over 50 G1 races. Brett has immense passion for Australian Racing both personally and professionally. With his diverse knowledge and long standing industry relations he’s a valuable asset to racing and it’s enthusiasts. | |
Expert Column for Melbourne Cup Day (S1) (Brett Davis)
S1-1 Furphy Plate (Melbourne Cup Day Plate)
SKYMAN trained by Chris Waller has plenty of ticks alongside his name and is the horse I fancy most in this open contest. He’s ultra-consistent, has a perfect barrier plus form over this distance and longer. He’s also won twice at Flemington and been competitive against a horse called FLOATING ARTIST which reads well if you follow the form.
GROOVY KINDA LOVE was super impressive at Ballarat when winning a 1,600m race at her last start. She’s up in class, distance and taking on the males which are all steep hills to climb. Only very smart and seriously talented gallopers can accomplish that type of challenge and she could well be in that category. With Damien Lane in the saddle for almost her entire career you’d be brave leaving her out.
LORD VLADIVOSTOK is trained in South Australia by last season’s Champion Trainer Michael Hickmott. A winner at his only attempt over 1,800m the son of TAVISTOCK is a genuine hearty racer and arrives fit and in form. He’s tactically versatile with a turn of foot and a listed race is well within his range.
MILTON PARK is a front runner and the potential leader following an all the way victory in the listed Sale Cup. The distance is a slight concern but if he’s allowed to dictate he can take stopping. In this small field a tactical battle may very well unfold and often in that case in front is the most beneficial place to be.
PAPPALINO heads in to this race third up from a spell and returns in distance to 1,800m. He was only beat 3 lengths in the G3 Coongy Cup at Caulfield which was rated a very honest performance. It’s his first start at Flemington, which could well be to his liking, so I’m not prepared to rule him completely out.
SELECTIONS: 6. SKYMAN, 9. GROOVY KINDA LOVE, 7. LORD VLADIVOSTOK, 3. MILTON PARK & 5. PAPPALINO
S1-2 BM90 Handicap
FRANKIE PINOT has come along way in a short time and is thoroughly enjoying his racing. He’s yet to miss a place in the last six starts and continues to lift the bar at every opportunity since June after the break. He can race handy but is more effective ridden with patience, which is perfect considering he’s got the outside draw.
REGARDSMAREE must shoulder the weight due to his terrific form from last preparation and admittedly the wide barrier doesn’t help. That being said he’s about to reach the peak of the mountain this campaign and is a winner over the course and distance. There are negatives against him but he’ll definitely run well.
BLONDEAU is another super consistent racer that will make his debut at Flemington. He’s been kept fresh for this testing assignment and that’s when he races at his best. I like the draw as he can position midfield with room and he handles all types of track conditions. If it happens to rain his chance is largely enhanced.
PINDARIC is a big beastly son of FASTNET ROCK who arrives in Melbourne tasting defeat only once. With six wins from seven starts under his belt the South Australia commands plenty of respect. With natural gate speed and a long fluent motion his assets the big Flemington racetrack could well suit so he’s worthy and difficult to fault.
LACKEEN is the runner that’s hard to assess as he goes in first up off the back of two soft trials in Sydney. He’s bred to want further and may take the run but it’s intriguing he’s travelled all this way to start. The booking of Damien Oliver also catches the eye, so I’d be assessing him closely in the parade.
SELECTIONS: 11. FRANKIE PINOT, 2. REGARDSMAREE, 4. BLONDEAU, 7. PINDARIC & 9. LACKEEN
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 11. FRANKIE PINOT
Selections – 2. REGARDSMAREE, 4. BLONDEAU, 7. PINDARIC & 9. LACKEEN
S1-3:
Banker – 1. PROFITEER
Selections – 4. ENTHAAR, 2. MAGIC MAX & 8. SUPER THIEF
S1-3 Schweppervescence Plate
PROFITEER is the equal top rated in this set weight competition and despite the penalty he must burden shall be hardest to beat. He arrives perfectly tuned going in third up and take over by James McDonald. He’s undefeated down the straight course at Flemington so there’ll be no issue finding his way around.
ENTHAAR is the other equal top rated and Jye McNeil moves to her after losing the ride on PROFITEER. She’s first up and defeated just once from three race starts and is a high speed running machine. With no trial to guide her wellbeing on we just have presume she be a tough nut to crack.
MAGIC MAX is already a winner in Melbourne at Caulfield as a 2YO and the South Aussie arrives super fit. The straight 1,000m looks achievable with a hard chasing 1,200m under his belt at Morphettville last start. The draw looks the only negative but he can offset that with natural speeds.
SUPER THIEF is undefeated this preparation and touted as a horse on the rise. Winning and maiden at Swan Hill followed by a BM64 Handicap at Sale was a decent achievement and the Hayes trained runner should be considered. He’s a natural high speed front running type and his ultimate test in this contest shall come over the final strides.
SELECTIONS:1. PROFITEER, 4. ENTHAAR, 2. MAGIC MAX & 8. SUPER THIEF
S1-4 Melbourne Cup
INCENTIVISE is Australia’s newest super star having won nine races in a row. Wins in the recent G1 Caulfield Cup, Turnbull Stakes and Makybe Diva Stakes have secured his position as favourite for the race that stops a nation. In fact, it’s expected he’ll start the shortest priced favourite since the legendary PHAR LAP, who finished second in 1929 before winning Australia’s great race in the following year.
INCENTIVISE is a genuine on pace galloper that possesses overwhelming might and is capable of busting apart the opposition runner by runner, one by one. Former Hong Kong jockey Brett Prebble has lost nothing in the saddle and together they’ll secure the limelight pre-race and post-race whatever the result.
SPANISH MISSION is prepared by English trainer Andrew Balding who is no stranger to Hong Kong racing after travelling intermittently to the HKIR meeting on many occasions. This 6YO stallion is well travelled, well prepared and by all reports happy and well. His form line is of the highest caliber with a recent defeat in the G2 Lonsdale Cup, but hard fought battle, against the almighty STRADIVARIUS. He adores a good surface which is what he’s likely to receive and on paper he’s the hardest to beat.
FLOATING ARTIST is bred through a fantastic staying pedigree as a son of Irish stallion NATHANIEL. He’s a former northern hemisphere galloper who’s thrived since his arrival in Australia and is still very much on the upward spiral. A luckless second in the G2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup should have been a win, but the result allows him to drift slightly under the handicapping radar. The distance of 3,200m I don’t see as a problem and I rate him one of the top light weight chances in the race.
TRALEE ROSE is the winner of the G3 Geelong Cup a traditional lead up and long time formidable reference when trying to find the winner of the Melbourne Cup. She has an outstanding record at Flemington and has been set for this race since a fourth place in the G2 Adelaide Cup back in March. Trainer Simon Wilde has often commented on her enormous lung capacity and natural staying ability and she has a temperament to match. With the light weight assisting her greatly she’s ready to test her depth in the great race.
DELPHI was extremely impressive in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes a couple of starts back and was ridden upside down in the G1 Caulfield Cup. The former Irish galloper has fully acclimatised to Australian lifestyle and lines up for his second attempt at G1 level. This emerging son of GALILEO has all the attributes required to handle a contest of this nature and is well weighted under the handicap conditions. The favourites are the horses to beat but if both become vulnerable the race shall open right up.
SELECTIONS: 2. INCENTIVISE, 3. SPANISH MISSION, 22. FLOATING ARTIST, 21. TRALEE ROSE & 7. DELPHI
S1-5 The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (Maybe Mahal Stakes)
EXCELIDA is a fast finishing mare the settles down back before cutting loose once there in the home straight. A recent fourth at Geelong in listed company was brilliant as backmaker’s has struggled to make ground all day. The long Flemington stretch, as previous form suggests, is helpful to her style and she arrives healthy, fit and ready to launch her claim.
APRIL RAIN has drawn a great barrier for her Melbourne debut and she’ll receive the perfect run up to the home bend. She’s taking on the big girls at set weight for the first which won’t be easy but indicators suggest she’s very progressive.
Trainer Chris Waller wouldn’t be placing her in this event if she couldn’t win and I’m tipping she’ll run well.
LA MEXICANA is far better placed back to mares grade and her performance in the G1 Manikato Stakes last outing can be ignored. She’s a high quality speed horse that can handle decent fractions early before kicking hard to the line. Her experience at Flemington and over the 1,400m is minimal but I envisage her class can take her a fair way.
RICH HIPS is the highest rated mare going around in this event by a space and is closing in on her best form. The wide draw isn’t a help but shouldn’t be a major hindrance as her tactic shall be to slot in towards the back. At set weights she is very well placed and it appears as if the good pace early shall help. She’s particularly strong through the last 200m so look for her joining in final stages.
PROMISE OF SUCCESS is a lightly raced Sydney mare who arrives to Melbourne in career best form. She’s been a slow maturing type that’s been given plenty of time and the benefits of that are paying off now. She’s drawn a perfect barrier for her debut at Flemington over the tricky 1,400m and when push comes to shove she should be up to the fight.
SELECTIONS: 7. EXCELIDA, 10. APRIL RAIN, 1. LA MEXICANA, 2. RICH HIPS & 11. PROMISE OF SUCCESS
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 7. EXCELIDA
Selections – 10. APRIL RAIN, 1. LA MEXICANA, 2. RICH HIPS & 11. PROMISE OF SUCCESS
S1-6:
Banker – 14. MARACANA
Selections – 6. SPIRIT OF GAYLARD, 2. BLUSHING TYCOON, 5. SEBASTIAN THE FOX & 4. ZOUMON
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 7. EXCELIDA, 10. APRIL RAIN & 1. LA MEXICANA
S1-6: Multiple – 14. MARACANA, 6. SPIRIT OF GAYLARD & 2. BLUSHING TYCOON
S1-7: Multiple – 10. CURRAN, 6. PANDEMIC & 14. QUANTICO
S1-6 Batman Stakes
MARACANA is the highest rated in this set weights Batman Stakes and as a filly she receives further relief. Trained by the power Danny O’Brien stable and ridden by Brett Prebble are more positives along side her name. A fast finishing third at G2 level over 1,600m recently was a perfect lead up to this race. The markets shall have her a definite winning chance and I agree she’s hard to beat.
SPIRIT OF GAYLARD caught the eye when running home well in the G2 Moonee Valley Vase. A sizeable betting move was also witnessed during those final minutes before they jumped and I’m expecting similar today. He has experience at Flemington after finishing fifth here on debut and running over 1,800m is positive on this spacious track.
BLUSHING TYCOON is a big bulky colt who’s needed racing to gain the required fitness level. With three runs now under the belt he’ll roll forward and look to gradually build the speed. He lacks a turn of foot in a sit and dash but can be effective if the race turns in to a grind. The big spacious track should be to his advantage and expect him to fight hard all the way.
SEBASTIAN THE FOX has very sound form through the G3 Caulfield Classic at Caulfield which was won by GUNSTOCK. Today the positive are he’s back in trip to 1,800m and also has race experience at Flemington. He was sent out a big price his last couple of starts and if that’s on offer again I’ll be happy to take it and play.
ZOUMON looks a genuine staying prospect going forward and was an all the way winner at Moe last start. He’s going up against far greater opposition in this race today but he’ll be out of trouble in front. Glen Boss is the man behind the wheel and you can guarantee you’ll get a good ride.
SELECTIONS: 14. MARACANA, 6. SPIRIT OF GAYLARD, 2. BLUSHING TYCOON, 5. SEBASTIAN THE FOX & 4. ZOUMON
S1-7 MSS Security Sprint (Always Welcome Stakes)
CURRAN is a decent young horse that is on the up with scope and time on his side. He only began racing in February and is yet to run badly. Connections have gradually increased the depth of task and he’s continued answering all challenges. Experience at the Flemington straight track is already ticked off with success and the form out of his last start third is strong.
PANDEMIC is a listed winner and G3 placed gelding raced by Godolphin. His form dropped off after plenty of travelling last campaign and a winter spell was thereafter enjoyed. Return efforts in good quality sprints this time in have netted a pair of excellent second placings and he appears in very good shape.
QUANTICO is trained in Sydney by John O’Shea and arrives to Melbourne with highly respect and winning form. Tommy Berry, Hugh Bowman and James McDonald are the last three jockeys to ride this emerging 5YO which speaks volumes for his potential class. Straight racing is always a test to the untried galloper but if he copes well with moment he’ll most likely win.
PRIME CANDIDATE is a lightly raced 7YO from Sydney who ventures to a Melbourne for the very first time. Trained by Bjorn Baker at Warwick Farm he’s a model of consistency and close to his peak after two solid outings at Randwick. He’ll settle on speed which can help his debut because being caught in traffic down the Flemington straight can be detrimental.
NIGHT RAID is a listed winning filly that boasts two wins at 1,200m. She was average first up at Caulfield but chased hard at Geelong her next start and shall strip fitter for today. She’s well draw, races on speed and has a jockey in form sitting behind the wheel.
SELECTIONS: 10. CURRAN, 6. PANDEMIC, 14. QUANTICO, 4. PRIME CANDIDATE & 13. NIGHT RAID
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