Expert - Jon Lees

Jon Lees is an award-winning racing journalist who was senior news reporter for the Racing Post for 20 years, before that he was chief racing correspondent for Britain’s national news agency, the Press Association. He was named Racing Reporter of the Year at the HWPA Derby Awards in 2013. He has travelled extensively covering horse racing, attending his first Breeders’ Cup in 1994. Since 2018 Jon has been a freelance, writing for The Times, the Telegraph, At The Races and Breeders’ Cup, working in PR for Ladbrokes and Newbury racecourse, and regularly contributes to the website horseracingplanet.com.

Expert Column for Breeders' Cup Mile and Breeders' Cup Turf (S1) (Jon Lees)

S1-1     Breeders' Cup Mile

Godolphin will be hoping one of their stalwarts, the 5YO SPACE BLUES, can bow out in a blaze of glory on what is likely to be his final start. He arrives in California in the form of his life having comfortably won the 1,400m G1 Prix de la Foret last month. While it was heavy at ParisLongchamp, it will be firm at Del Mar and though he has won on all surfaces, this will be his first start to compete for races longer than 1,400m since 2019. He has specialised at 1,400m in recent years, historically a weaker division than at 1,600m.

Also at the peak of his form is 5YO gelding IN LOVE. The Brazilian-bred has won his last three races and stepped up from Listed company to win the 1,600m G1 Keeneland Turf Mile. He was switched out in the straight and quickened readily past his opponents, who included last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile winner ORDER OF AUSTRALIA, to score under just hands and heels riding. With the possibility of more improvement to come he could take the beating.

With ORDER OF AUSTRALIA ruled out, MOTHER EARTH flies the flag for Aidan O’Brien. The 3YO filly has had a busy campaign since winning the 1000 Guineas over 1,600m in Newmarket in May. She also won the 1,600m G1 Prix Rothschild at Deauville and had finished in the first three in all other starts this year  until running fifth in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes over 1,600m at Ascot. She has not enjoyed the best of luck in her latest races and won’t be able to afford any more mishaps in this.

GOT STORMY has previous Breeders’ Cup experience, finishing second in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Mile as favourite and fifth in last year’s Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint over 1,100m. This year the 6YO mare won the G1 Fourstardave Handicap at Saratoga over 1,600m in the summer when CASA CREED, BLOWOUT and RAGING BULL, who all won G1 races, were behind her. She is also a previous winner over the course and distance, landing the G1 Matriarch Stakes two years ago, which ought to put her in the mix again.

Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby has a strong second string in MASTER OF THE SEAS, who was second in the G1 2000 Guineas over 1,600m in May. He then didn’t run again until September when he found trouble in running in the G2 Joel Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket, won by BENBATL. He couldn’t build on that effort in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot, where he was seventh, two places behind MOTHER EARTH, but raced without his usual hood and pulled too hard. If the headgear is restored he has each-way prospects.

SELECTIONS: 7. IN LOVE, 3. SPACE BLUES, 9. MOTHER EARTH, 11. GOT STORMY & 1. MASTER OF THE SEAS

S1-2     Breeders' Cup Turf

European horses have dominated this race, winning on seven occasions of the last ten. Last year’s Breeders' Cup Turf winner TARNAWA will attempt to match CONDUIT (2008, 2009) and HIGH CHAPARRAL (2002, 2003) as a two-time winner of this G1 2,400m race and she boasts outstanding credentials.

TARNAWA beat the top class MAGICAL at Keeneland a year ago at the end of an unbeaten campaign and has maintained her level in this year. Trainer Dermot Weld has campaigned her around two end-of-season targets, the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and Breeders’ Cup Turf. She went down by three quarters of a length to TORQUATOR TASSO at ParisLongchamp over the 2,400m G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and can be counted unlucky when the same distance behind ST MARK’S BASILICA in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes over 2,000m when she was carried right by the winner.

Trainer Chad Brown has repeatedly shattered European hopes on this race and he is impossible to ignore again with three runners of which ROCKEMPEROR could give them most to fear. He had JAPAN among his victims when landing the G1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont Park and can be a big danger.

Godolphin’s WALTON STREET earned his place with a wide margin victory in the G1 Canadian International Stakes over 2,400m at Woodbine. It was an impressive performance and, although it was not a strong field, he previously finished a place behind TORQUATOR TASSO when third in the G1 Grosser Preis Von Berlin over 2,400m and fourth in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic, won by MISHRIFF. He mustn’t be written off.

Aidan O'Brien has won the Breeders’ Cup Turf a record of six times. And the Irish legendary trainer won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile with ORDER OF AUSTRALIA, a horse that got in off the reserve list, and he has the chance to do so again with BOLSHOI BALLET. The 3YO colt started favourite for the G1 Derby Stakes at Epsom, where he finished seventh and returned with a cut leg, but then went to Belmont Park in USA where he won the G1 Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes over 2,000m. He looks like the stable number one.

Stablemate BROOME, who will have Frankie Dettori aboard, could be also figure, having been unsuccessfully deployed as a pacemaker in both the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes but won the G1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud over 2,400m in June. He has shown a recent tendency to break slowly but a place finish is not beyond him.

SELECTIONS: 13. TARNAWA, 1. ROCKEMPEROR, 7. WALTON STREET, 15. BOLSHOI BALLET & 8. BROOME

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