Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Japan Cup (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1     Japan Cup

Still remember the last year’s G1 Japan Cup? It was won by ALMOND EYE, the Queen of Turf who collected her ninth G1 during this race. The runner-up was CONTRAIL, undefeated Triple Crown winner in 2020, and DARING TACT, undefeated Triple Tiara winner in 2020, finished third. The three great horses displayed great performance and we are deeply impressed with the great result.

As the 2,400m turf course at Tokyo is the championship course in Japan, where the true ability of runners reflects on result straightforwardly, the key of selection should be as simply as the best horse in the field

This year’s field of Japan Cup includes four winners of the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), over the same course and distance as Japan Cup in May, and I am sure the best Derby winner among them is CONTRAIL, who won the Derby in 2020 by three lengths

Although he experienced his first defeat in the Japan Cup in 2020, CONTRAIL was beaten only by ALMOND EYE, the Queen of Turf. He covered the final 600m for 34.3 seconds, the quickest in 15 runners and I reckon this is a wonderful effort

While he was beaten third in the G1 Osaka Hai at Hanshin in April, he hated the soft ground and I understand we should forget this poor performance. Although he was beaten second in the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn, he covered the final 600m for 33.0 seconds, the quickest in 16 runners. While he has lost last three races in a row after winning last year’s G1 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger), I am sure that CONTRAIL is keeping his form. And it is worth considering that Yuichi Fukunaga, who won the Tokyo Yushun 2021 with SHAHRYAR, selects CONTRAIL as his mount on Sunday

Japan Cup is a tough race for 3YOs and we cannot find any 3YO colt in the list of the last ten winners, although I select SHAHRYAR, the only 3YO colt in the field, as my second choice. As I mentioned in the preview of the major races this autumn, the standard of this year’s 3YOs in Japan is high. SHAHRYAR won the Tokyo Yushun, beating EFFORIA at Tokyo in May, and EFFORIA won the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn at Tokyo in October, beating older horses. I believe SHAHRYAR can be competitive running against older horses. Although he was beaten fourth in the G2 Kobe Shimbun Hai at Chukyo in September, the ground was very heavy that day, which was difficult to handle for the colt by DEEP IMPACT. He should not finish far behind CONTRAIL as long as the track is good to firm on Sunday

AUTHORITY, who won the G2 Copa Republica Argentina on 7th November and achieved the back-to-back win of the 2,500m event at Tokyo, is my third choice. He is the winner of the G2 Aoba Sho, over the same course and distance as Japan Cup, last year, and he loves the track at Tokyo, where he started four times and won three of them

ARISTOTELES, who was runner-up to CONTRAIL in the G1 Kikuka Sho in 2020, is my fourth choice. While he lost his form and performed poorly in three starts in spring, he finished second in the G2 Kyoto Daishoten at Hanshin on 10th October and I feel he is bouncing back

BROOME, who finished second to YIBIR in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf at Del Mar in November, is my fifth choice. Ryan Moore is booked for him on Sunday.

SELECTIONS: 2. CONTRAIL, 4. SHAHRYAR, 7. AUTHORITY, 9. ARISTOTELES & 3. BROOME

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