Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Arima Kinen Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1 2yo Newcomer

Maiden for unraced 2YOs over 1,600m on turf. The field includes some talented juveniles fillies, who have been working well in the morning, and strong pace is expected.

My favourite is ROBE HERITAGE who is the third foal out of ROBE TISSAGE, winner of G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies in 2012. While she is not breezed for so many times, she is working sharply and I have a feeling that she is improving day by day. And her action reminds me her sire, DEEP IMPACT. I believe she is gifted and her temperament is very straightforward. I judge ROBE HERITAGE, trained by Naosuke Sugai at Ritto Training Centre, is able to make successful racecourse debut on Sunday.

FRANCES is working well in the morning at Miho Training Centre. It looks she is combative, as like her sire DURAMENTE, and is always trying hard to beat the accompany horses. And I have a feeling that 1,600m is her best trip and the filly trained by Ikuo Aizawa is ready to run her race on Sunday. FRANCES is my second choice.

My third choice is MANDOLONE, owned by Silk Racing Co. Ltd, racing partnership which owns ROBE HERITAGE as well. While I felt she was a powerless animal, when I saw her for the first time at Miho Training Centre a month ago, she has been building up her strength day by day and responses very well when the rider asks her to stretch her legs. I think she is now ready to run. Her half-brother, BOOZER, won maiden for unraced 2YOs and the pedigree suggests MANDOLONE runs well on Sunday.

My fourth choice is ROUGE EPICE, who has been breezed nicely at Miho Training Centre. While clocking times of her breeze are not so fast, she has been breezed with experienced runners, such as ONYANKOPON, who is going to enter in G1 Hopeful Stakes at Nakayama on 28th December, and proves herself a good match. I have an impression that the well-bred filly by LORD KANALOA has a bright future.

GO GO YUTAKA is my fifth choice. I saw the colt by RULERSHIP for the first time at Miho Training Centre in August and my impression was “ordinary horse” at that time. However, he is trained better recently and his track work on 19th December was fine. While I still think he is not so promising, I reckon GO GO YUTAKA is capable to finish within the first five on Sunday.

SELECTIONS:16. ROBE HERITAGE, 10. FRANCES, 4. MANDOLONE, 11. ROUGE EPICE & 15. GO GO YUTAKA

S1-2 3yo and up 1 win

This is an allowance race for one time winning 3YOs and uppers over 1,800m on dirt. For some of the runners in the field is their first start after having lengthy break, and I understand we should be careful to judge if they are ready to run.

My favourite is Tetsuya Kimura’s LAND ARTIST. Though the 4YO gelding had been running the races on turf, the connections decided to switch the surface and LAND ARTIST has run dirt races in the last two starts. And the change of surface seems to be working well, as he finished second and third in the allowance race for one time winners at Tokyo on 9th October and 23rd October separately. I am most impressed with his performance in the last start, when he tracked a leader from the second position and tried hard to fight using sustainable long spurt. I am pretty sure Nakayama is more suitable for him and I understand LAND ARTIST has a very good chance to win on Sunday.

One of the most consistent runners at this class in the field is DANON MAVROS, who finished within first three in the last four starts. I regard the form of his previous start highly, because I assess both of the winner and second finisher in previous start would be competitive running against two time winners. And I am sure Nakayama is a suitable track for him. DANON MAVROS is my second choice.

Though this is the first time for CURREN LEVENTIS to run the race over dirt surface. I have a feeling that he can handle it well, because he has powerful action which he inherited from his sire EPIPHANEIA. And he has been trained very well at Miho Training Centre and I am sure he is improving. CURREN LEVENTIS is my third choice.

HEAT HAZE was transferred from NAR to JRA in November and finished third in the allowance race for one time winners at Nakayama on 11th December. I regard this form highly, because HEAT HAZE was bewildered with the quicker tempo at JRA than NAR at the beginning of race. But HEAT HAZE responded well when the jockey asked at 600m out and covered final 600m for 38.5 seconds, the third quickest in 16 runners. HEAT HAZE has been trained well since the previous start, showing his passion for running. HEAT HAZE is my fourth choice.

When LUDOVICUS won a race for 2YO newcomer at Niigata in August 2020, the second finisher was BAJI O, who subsequently won the Listed Principal Stakes, and I believe LUDOVICUS should be competitive at higher class, although this is the first start for him since 31st January. He has been working very impressively in the morning at Miho Training Centre and I am sure that his physical is almost 100% fit. LUDOVICUS is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 14. LAND ARTIST, 8. DANON MAVROS, 3. CURREN LEVENTIS, 13. HEAT HAZE & 5. LUDOVICUS

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 14. LAND ARTIST
Selections – 8. DANON MAVROS, 3. CURREN LEVENTIS, 13. HEAT HAZE & 5. LUDOVICUS
S1-3:
Banker – 15. LINCOLN TESORO
Selections – 5. GO STRAIGHT, 12. GROUND STROKE, 14. ONLY ONE STAR & 2. VIP ELENA

S1-3 Toji Tokubetsu

Toji Tokubetsu is a stakes race for 3YOs and uppers over 1,200m on dirt.

American-bred LINCOLN TESORO is my favourite. The 3YO colt by CARPE DIEM finished second in the allowance race for two time winners on 4th December over the same course and distance as this race. I regard this from highly because it was his first start at this class and first start since September for LINCOLN TESORO. He was put blinkers in the last two starts and they have been working very well. Since last start, LINCOLN TEROSO exercised in swimming pool every day for one week to refresh and then resumed training on track. It looks he is still in the top form and I believe LINCOLN TESORO has a very good chance to win on Sunday.

My second pick is GO STRAIGHT, who graduated the class for one time winners at Niigata on 23rd October, when he won the allowance race by three and a half lengths. Most of his previous starts were races between 1,600m to 2,000m, and it was the first time for this 3YO colt by EISHIN FLASH to run the race over 1,200m dirt in the last start. I have an impression that “1,200m dirt” is an ideal trip and surface for GO STRAIGHT and he should be competitive running against two time winners. Although he has not run since 23rd October, he has been breezed twice a week at Miho Training Centre since the beginning of December and I believe he is ready to run his race.

My third choice is GROUND STROKE, who has also graduated from the class for one time winners last time out on 4th December over the same course and distance as this race. In fact, he dwelt at the start in the last race and it was impressive to witness he was still able to win. I have an impression that this 4YO colt by STRONG RETURN is now improving.

ONLY ONE STAR finished fourth in an allowance race for two time winners on 4th December over the same course and distance as this race. If this 8YO mare by STATUE OF LIBERTY can reproduce the form of her last start, I think she has a good chance to finish within the first four in Toji Tokubetsu.

VIP ELENA graduated the class for one time winners on 4th September, when the 3YO filly by VINCENNES won the allowance race for fillies and mares at Niigata. VIP ELENA finished fourth in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 26th September. I regard this form highly, because this was her first start running against two time winners and she took wide trip all way through. I think she has ability to finish within first five here.

SELECTIONS: 15. LINCOLN TESORO, 5. GO STRAIGHT, 12. GROUND STROKE, 14. ONLY ONE STAR & 2. VIP ELENA

S1-4 Goodluck Handicap

Goodluck Handicap is the stakes race for 3YOs and upwards over 2,500m on turf at Nakayama, the distance is the same as Arima Kinen.

My favourite is RED VELOCITY, 3YO colt by WORLD ACE. He has been regarded highly by the connections from day one and finished third in G2 Aoba Sho, one of the most important prep races for the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) at Tokyo on 1st May. As T O ROYAL, fourth finisher in G2 Aoba Sho, won an allowance race for three time winners at Hanshin on 20th November. I am sure RED VELOCITY has ability to graduate this class easily. Although he was beaten eighth in G2 St. Lite Kinen last time out, he dwelt at the start and could not run his race at all. I believe we can forget about this poor performance. And his weight, 123lbs, is just what I expected.

BREAKUP, who finished third in the allowance race for two time winners on 5th December over the same course and distance as this race is my second choice. It is obvious that the 3YO colt by NOVELLIST likes the track at Nakayama, where he started four times and won two of them, including the allowance race for one time winners on 3rd October, which he made all. And it is the factor that Takeshi Yokoyama is booked for him on Sunday.

One of the most consistent runners at this class in the field is LOVINGER, who finished within first four in the last five starts in a row. Although the 5YO mare by HARBINGER is a versatile horse and can handle many different tracks, she can make sustainable spurt and I believe her running style suits Nakayama the best. LOVINGER is my third choice.

WOLF’S HOWL, who was narrowly beaten in the stakes race for two time winners at Fukushima on 7th November is my fourth choice. After finishing third in the allowance race for two time winners at Sapporo in August 2020, WOLF’S HOWL was sidelined for 13 months due to injury and returned to racecourse in September 2021. His performance in the last start proofs that he is still competitive at this class.

Big Red Farm’s COSMO DJEMILA, who finished second in the stakes race for two time winners at Hanshin on 27th November is my fifth choice. The 4YO filly by GOLD SHIP finished seventh in Good Luck Handicap after finishing fifth in an allowance race for two times winners in 2020. This year, her preparation for this race is much better, and I think she has a good chance to finish within the first five on Sunday.

SELECTIONS: 7. RED VELOCITY, 14. BREAKUP, 15. LOVINGER, 1. WOLF’S HOWL & 3. COSMO DJEMILA

S1-5 2021 Farewell Stakes

2021 Farewell Stakes is for three time winning 3YOs and uppers over 1,200m on dirt. This is a competitive field and most of the strong candidates are closers.

My favourite is KAIAWASE, who graduated the class for two time winners on 12th September over the same course and distance as this race, winning the allowance race by five lengths. The 4YO filly by I’LL HAVE ANOTHER finished fourth in the allowance race for three time winners at Hanshin on 4th December and I regard this form highly, because it was her first start since September, also the first start at this class. I feel she is improving now and it is an encouraging factor that Keita Tosaki is booked for her on Sunday.

My second pick is PIER CHIC, who has started at this class for seven times and finished within first four in four of them, including the allowance race on 4th December at Hanshin, where he finished third, being half a length ahead of KAIAWASE. While the 5YO horse by CENTRAL BANKER has never run at Nakayama, he has powerful late kick and I believe Nakayama is a very suitable track for PIER CHIC. And it is the factor that Yutaka Take is booked for him on Sunday.

Another consistent runner at this class is URBAN JAGER, who finished within first four in the last three starts. While the 7YO horse by EMPIRE MAKER has run the races between 1,400m and 1,800m in the last eight starts, he finished second in an allowance race for three time winners over the same course and distance as this race in January 2020, and I believe he can handle this course and distance well. URBAN JAGER is my third choice.

NISHINO HORIZON, who finished third in the allowance race for three time winners at Hanshin on 6th November, is my fourth choice. The 4YO colt by SINISTER MINISTER won both novice and allowance races for two time winners over the same course and distance in 2020. I believe 1,200m dirt course at Nakayama is a suitable track for NISHINO HORIZON.

WALTZ FOR RUN was transferred from NAR to JRA this year. Since then, the 4YO filly by WILD WONDER started four times, won two of them and finished second twice. She finished second at Fukushima on 7th November, and I regard this form highly, because it was the first start for her since July and first start running against three time winners. She is a kinky animal, but Yuji Tannai, the jockey who is booked to ride her in 2021 Farewell Stakes, rides WALTZ FOR RUN almost every morning and he knows how to handle the kinky girl. WALTZ FOR RUN is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 11. KAIAWASE, 5. PIER CHIC, 12. URBAN JAGER, 4. NISHINO HORIZON & 3. WALTZ FOR RUN

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 11. KAIAWASE
Selections – 5. PIER CHIC, 12. URBAN JAGER, 4. NISHINO HORIZON & 3. WALTZ FOR RUN
S1-6:
Banker – 7. CHRONO GENESIS
Selections – 10. EFFORIA, 16. TITLEHOLDER, 5. DEEP BOND & 9. STELLA VELOCE

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 11. KAIAWASE, 5. PIER CHIC & 12. URBAN JAGER
S1-6: Multiple – 7. CHRONO GENESIS, 10. EFFORIA & 16. TITLEHOLDER
S1-7: Multiple – 10. GEUMEUSILAKKO, 13. COSMO ANGE & 9. OSIRIS BRAIN

S1-6 Arima Kinen

It is unique that the runners of Arima Kinen are selected through voting by horse racing fans, and all of top three horses on ballot list have declared to run this year. I believe it is a three-cornered battle by EFFORIA, who gained 260,742 votes, CHRONO GENESIS, who gained 240,165 votes, and TITLEHOLDER, who gained 207,285 votes.

My favourite is CHRONO GENESIS, who tries to complete a back-to-back win of Arima Kinen. The 5YO mare by BAGO flew to Dubai and finished second in G1 Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan in March. It is arguably a wonderful effort, as the winner was MISHRIFF, the second-highest rated horse in the world. And she won G1 Takarazuka Kinen by two and a half lengths at Hanshin in June and it is another great performance. Though she was disappointing seventh in G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at ParisLongchamp in October, the ground was too heavy and she could not run her race at all.

CHRONO GENESIS had easy time at Shigaraki Branch of Northern Farm after returning from France and moved back to Takashi Saito’s barn at Ritto Training Centre on 2nd December. Since then, she has been trained well for Arima Kinen and I believe her condition is as good as she was last year.

EFFORIA has won G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) at Nakayama in April and G1 Tenno Sho Autumn at Tokyo in October. If he wins Arima Kinen, the 3YO colt by EPIPHANEIA could be crowned as Japanese Horse of the Year in 2021. It is noteworthy that the second finisher in G1 Tenno Sho Autumn was CONTRAIL, who subsequently won G1 Japan Cup by two lengths. Takeshi Yokoyama, who guided TITLEHOLDER to win G1 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger), selects EFFORIA as his mount in Arima Kinen, and it is an encouraging sign. EFFORIA is my second pick.

TITLEHOLDER made all G1 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger), the final leg of Japanese Triple Crown at Hanshin in October, by five lengths. His performance was very impressive and I believe the 3YO colt by DURAMENTE has a chance to win, provided he reproduces his form of Kikuka Sho on Sunday. My concern is the presence of PANTHALASSA, who made all G3 Fukushima Kinen at Fukushima last time out, and KISEKI, who made a big move at backstretch and hit the front at 1,000m out in G1 Japan Cup. TITLEHOLDER is my third choice.

Although DEEP BOND was well beaten in G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at ParisLongchamp in October, I think he can bounce back, as like TAP DANCE CITY, who finished seventeenth in the Arc and then finished second in Arima Kinen in 2004, and GOLD SHIP, who finished fourteenth in the Arc and then finished third in Arima Kinen in 2014. DEEP BOND is my fourth choice.

STELLA VELOCE, who finished within first four in all three legs of Triple Crown this year, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 7. CHRONO GENESIS, 10. EFFORIA, 16. TITLEHOLDER, 5. DEEP BOND & 9. STELLA VELOCE

S1-7 Candle Light Sho

Candle Light Sho is a stakes race for two time winning 3YOs and uppers over 1,200m on turf.

Though this is a wide open field, I select GEUMEUSILAKKO as my first choice. After finishing second in September 2020, being runner-up to ALL AT ONCE, who subsequently won G3 Ibis Summer Dash, GEUMEUSILAKKO lost his form and ran poorly ten starts in a row. However, the 3YO colt by DISCREET CAT took three months off from August to November and it brought him back to life. He won the allowance race for one time winners at Fukushima on 13th November and finished third in the allowance race on 4th December over the same course and distance as this race, taking wide trip all way through. Once he regains his form, I believe GEUMEUSILAKKO is competitive against two time winners and he should have a good chance to win Candle Light Sho on Sunday.

COSMO ANGE, who finished second in the allowance race on 4th December over the same course and distance as this race, being one and a quarter of length ahead of GEUMEUSILAKKO, is my second choice. It was the third time for the 4YO filly by TO THE WORLD to finish second at this class, after the allowance race for two time winners on 2nd October over the same course and distance as this race, and the allowance race for two time winners at Sapporo in August 2020. It looks she is able to set a pace at front and run her race in Candle Light Sho.

OSIRIS BRAIN is also running consistently at this class, finishing fourth in the allowance race for two times winner at Sapporo in June and second in another allowance race for two times winner at Hakodate in July. This is the first start for this 4YO colt by BAGO since July, and his fitness on Sunday could be 80% to 90%. However, I believe he is still capable to finish within the first four here.

LOVE KELLY who finished second in an allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 27th November is my fourth choice. She has finished third in G3 Hakodate Nisai Stakes and third again in G3 Fantasy Stakes last year. I understand she has the ability to compete well against the two time winners.

DERMA KANNON has just graduated the class for one time winners on 11th December, when the 3YO filly by SPIELBERG won the allowance race over 1,200m turf at Chukyo comfortably. The connections has had high expectation on her and selected G3 Fantasy Stakes as next start when she won maiden. Though it might take more time to mature than the connections expected, I think she is competitive in this class now. DERMA KANNON is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 10. GEUMEUSILAKKO, 13. COSMO ANGE, 9. OSIRIS BRAIN, 1. LOVE KELLY & 8. DERMA KANNON

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