 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
|---|---|
| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby)
Seven out of the last ten runnings of Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) are won by a colt by legendary DEEP IMPACT, including four straight victories from 2018 through 2021. The field of this year’s Tokyo Yushun includes five colts by DEEP IMPACT and they try to achieve an unprecedented five straight victory for their sire, who passed away in July 2019.
Among those colts by DEEP IMPACT, I like PRADARIA the best. The colt trained by Manabu Ikezoe won a maiden race over 2,400m at Hanshin on 19th March, which was his third start, and won G2 Aoba Sho over the same course and distance as Tokyo Yushun on 30th April. It is obvious that 2,400m is his best trip and it is an advantage for him that he has experienced the Derby course. What does weigh on my mind is strong jinx…winner of Aoba Sho has never won Tokyo Yushun. I do mind the jinx and cannot select PRADARIA better than the third choice.
Thirteen out of twenty horses who finished within first two in last ten running of Tokyo Yushun had run G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) as their previous start and I believe it is logical to select my favourite from those who ran Satsuki Sho at Nakayama on 17th April. My favourite is DANON BELUGA. His winning performance in G3 Kyodo News Hai at Tokyo on 13th February was very impressive. While the colt trained by Noriyuki Hori was beaten fourth in the Satsuki Sho, I assess it was a good effort, because he dislikes clockwise tracks and it was a tough race for the colt by HEART’S CRY, who broke from barrier one on the rail. And his track work at Miho Training Centre on 19th May was eye-catching and I am sure his condition has been improving since last start.
Another runner who should have a good chance to win in the field is EQUINOX, who won G2 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes at Tokyo last November impressively and finished second in the Satsuki Sho, despite jumping from the widest draw. As he is by KITASAN BLACK, who won G1 Tenno Sho Spring over 3,200m twice, I am sure extra 400m should be a favourable factor for EQUINOX.
My fourth choice is ASK WILD MORE. The colt trained by Hideaki Fujiwara finished second to GEOGLYPH in G3 Sapporo Nisai Stakes last September and I had an impression that this horse should have a bright future. After that, ASK WILD MORE lost his form and ran poorly in two starts. Then, he bounced back and won G2 Kyoto Shimbun Hai at Chukyo on 7th May, breaking track record. His sire KIZUNA completed the double of Kyoto Shimbun Hai and Tokyo Yushun in 2013.
GEOGLYPH, winner of Satsuki Sho, is by DREFONG, US Champion Sprinter who won three G1s between 1,200m to 1,400m. As his dam, AROMATICO, finished third in G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup over 2,200m and ALBILLA by MAURICE, half bother to GEOGLYPH, won allowance race for three-time winners over 2,400m at Tokyo on 14th May, GEOGLYPH may have inherited stamina from dam side. Even though, I reckon 2,400m is too far for him.
SELECTIONS: 12. DANON BELUGA, 18. EQUINOX, 6. PRADARIA, 1. ASK WILD MORE & 15. GEOGLYPH
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