 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Platinum Jubilee Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Chesham Stakes
Irish champion trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the 1,400m Chesham Stakes four times in the last six years and he looks to have a great chance of lifting this Listed prize again with ALFRED MUNNINGS. He’s bred to be a top-class colt as he’s a half-brother to last year’s dual Classic winner SNOWFALL and it was difficult not to be impressed with his debut win. There have been few more impressive 2YO performances this season than his 1,400m Leopardstown victory in May. His trainer has his usual powerful squad of juveniles and this son of top stallion DUBAWI could just be the best of them.
THE FOXES was only fourth behind DARK THIRTY on his debut, but it was still an excellent starting point to his career. He found some quicker rivals too good in the closing stages of a 1,200m Newbury maiden last month, so the step up to 1,400m will be a big help. The form of that race looks red hot and he is likely to be much sharper with the run behind him.
CRYPTO FORCE benefitted from all the traffic problems AUGUSTE RODIN suffered on his debut to win a 1,400m Curragh maiden two weeks ago, but it was still a nice performance from Michael O’Callaghan’s youngster. He missed all the trouble with an impressive late run and he still looked in need of the experience for much of the race. There should be plenty of improvement to come.
FAISAL ROAD made a winning debut over 1,203m at Yarmouth last month. The form of that novice race looks very good as the runner-up CHANGING COLOURS and third-placed FINN'S CHARM were both easy winners on their next starts. There’s a lot of stamina on his mother’s side of the pedigree, so he should have little trouble handling the step up to 1,400m.
DARK THIRTY made all the running to land a hot 1,200m Newbury maiden on his first start. There was a lot to like about his attitude in the closing stages as he fought off MYSTERIOUS NIGHT and MARBAAN with THE FOXES back in fourth. The two placed horses both went on to win impressively, so the form of that race has worked out exceptionally well. It’s interesting his trainer Richard Hannon has decided to run him over this longer distance rather than stick to 1,200m.
SELECTIONS: 1. ALFRED MUNNINGS, 13. THE FOXES, 3. CRYPTO FORCE, 5. FAISAL ROAD & 4. DARK THIRTY
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-1:
Banker – 1. ALFRED MUNNINGS
Selections – 13. THE FOXES, 3. CRYPTO FORCE, 5. FAISAL ROAD & 4. DARK THIRTY
S1-2:
Banker – 9. NOBLE TRUTH
Selections – 3. ALFLAILA, 8. MONAADAH, 10. SAMBURU & 7. FIND
S1-2 Jersey Stakes
NOBLE TRUTH is the class horse in the race and could be another winner for the in-form Godolphin team. Having put this year’s Derby Stakes second HOO YA MAL in his place in a Listed race at Doncaster over 1,405m last September, NOBLE TRUTH then showed he can compete with the best, finishing second in the G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere over 1,400m at ParisLongchamp on Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe day. NOBLE TRUTH didn’t cope with the dirt in Saudi Arabia over 1,600m in January, but he bounced back on the turf with a runaway victory at Newmarket’s Craven meeting over 1,400m in April. However, he has always been a headstrong individual and from day one was a real handful on the gallops. So, despite a fantastic pedigree, Godolphin had him gelded last month and his demeanour could improve for the operation. He loves fast ground and, although he has explosive speed, he stays this 1,400m well.
Jim Crowley has ridden the unbeaten MONAADAH to all his three wins, so even though Shadwell’s other runner ALFLAILA is superior on ratings, the retained jockey sticks with this dual all-weather winner. A late developer, MONAADAH only made his debut on turf in Dubai in March. He has made rapid strides since, winning twice over 1,413m and 1,400m on tapeta and polytrack surface, and he produced his best effort yet at Kempton last time. Like NOBLE TRUTH, MONAADAH is also happy making the running, and he kept increasing the tempo in that race, putting the odds-on favourite to the sword early in the straight.
Dane O’Neill rides ALFLAILA, having partnered him to an easy victory in a handicap over this same 1,400m last month. He was not far behind dual G1 winner COROEBUS in the G3 Autumn Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket last year, but his trainer says that the colt has matured and improved through the winter. He gives Shadwell a strong hand here.
SAMBURU is 3-3 and Frankie Dettori has taught this sometimes lazy KINGMAN colt how to race properly in his last two races, at Salisbury over 1,394m and York over 1,400m. There looks to be more improvement in the locker and he is definitely one for the shortlist.
However, at bigger oddsm John & Thady Gosden also has a live second-string in FIND. He has been a slow-burner but showed signs of improvement back over 1,400m at Goodwood last time.
SELECTIONS: 9. NOBLE TRUTH, 3. ALFLAILA, 8. MONAADAH, 10. SAMBURU & 7. FIND
S1-3 Hardwicke Stakes
This year’s Hardwicke Stakes over 2,392m looks at the mercy of HURRICANE LANE. Though making his first start of the season, Charlie Appleby’s 4YO colt has by far the best form on offer in this race. He’s a three-time G1 winner, including both the Irish Derby over 2,400m and St. Leger Stakes over 2,905m, and if he brings that level of ability into this he should be very hard to beat. The lengthy absence is a mild concern, but he should be much too good for his rivals.
MOSTAHDAF looks the one who could follow him home. He’s twice a Listed winner over 1,600m last year and then won the G3 Gordon Richards Stakes over 1,990m on his seasonal reappearance in impressive fashion. John & Thady Gosden’s runner was soundly beaten by BAY BRIDGE in the G3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes last time, but that wasn’t a bad run at all as his conqueror that day was a good second in this year’s G1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes.
Roger Varian and Andrea Atzeni teamed up to win this in 2019 with DEFOE and they are responsible for THIRD REALM. He promised much last season after winning a Listed contest at Lingfield over 2,300m and didn’t run too badly to finish fifth in the G1 Derby Stakes over 2,405m next time. The 4YO has been a bit disappointing since, but he bounced back to form in great style in the Listed Tapster Stakes over 2,398m at Goodwood last time, where he won the race by six lengths. This is certainly a stronger race, though.
On the back of his good win over 2,064m at Chester last time, SOLID STONE deserves a mention. He won three times last year, including the G3 Legacy Cup over 2,200m, and while he was disappointing in Saudi Arabia over 2,100m after that, he was good at Chester. Sir Michael Stoute’s runner would need a career best to win this, however.
Aidan O’Brien has won this race three times and he saddles BROOME this year. He’s a very solid campaigner, who has won plenty of good races in his career, but he’s been poor recently and a big bounce back is required here.
SELECTIONS: 3. HURRICANE LANE, 6. MOSTAHDAF, 8. THIRD REALM, 7. SOLID STONE & 2. BROOME
S1-4 Platinum Jubilee Stakes
The G1 Platinum Jubilee Stakes over 1,200m could be trainer Chris Waller’s for the taking with HOME AFFAIRS. The Australian handler has made the journey over from New South Wales for good reason, having already taken home the 1,000m G1 King’s Stand Stakes with a dominant performance by NATURE STRIP. The gelding obliterated the field at the start of the week, which can only be seen as a boost to the form of the selection as HOME AFFAIRS beat NATURE STRIP two starts ago over 1,000m. The 1,200m distance isn’t a problem for the son of I AM INVINCIBLE, having already won over the distance last season in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes.
CREATIVE FORCE can give the selection something to worry about having already claimed G1 honours over course and distance. The DUBAWI gelding landed the British Champions Sprint Stakes over 1,200m on his penultimate start before disappointing in Dubai subsequently. Although that win came with cut in the ground, the 4YO has twice won with firm in the description.
There is another Australian fancied to be involved at the finish and that’s ARTORIUS. The son of FLYING ARTIE had to settle for third place when he met HOME AFFAIRS in the aforementioned Coolmore Stud Stakes. However, when they met most recently in the G1 Newmarket Handicap over 1,200m, the latter had to settle for ninth, while ARTORIUS was closer to the winners in sixth. The fact that the 4YO has not got his head in front in his last eight attempts is a concern, though.
HIGHFIELD PRINCESS bids for a hat-trick having won a Conditions event at Newcastle over 1,413m and the G2 Duke of York Stakes over 1,200m. She is hardly unexposed, as she will line up here for the 27th time in her career, however she has won at Ascot before on lightning quick ground, and if on song can trouble those at the head of affairs.
This really is an international race and rounding out the selections is the American CAMPANELLE. No stranger to Royal Ascot, the Wesley Ward-trained filly has won here twice in the G2 Queen Mary Stakes over 1,000m and the G1 Commonwealth Cup over 1,200m. She’s a versatile filly having won on ground ranging from heavy to firm, and is another to consider.
SELECTIONS: 13. HOME AFFAIRS, 3. CREATIVE FORCE, 2. ARTORIUS, 23. HIGHFIELD PRINCESS & 20. CAMPANELLE
S1-5 Wokingham Stakes (Handicap)
Irish-trained horses don’t have a great record in the Wokingham Stakes over 1,200m, with their last success coming in 2012, but Ken Condon’s QUARANTINE DREAMS looks to have every chance of enhancing that record. Lightly-raced after only seven career starts, this son of MAKE BELIEVE has run two good races in Listed company over 1,000m this season. He was seen staying on well last time out at Naas in the Listed Sprint Stakes over 1,000m and the step up in trip to this stiff 1,200m is likely to be ideal. Highly consistent in five Listed races since winning his maiden last season, he could be nicely weighted from an opening handicap mark that looks to underestimate his ability.
BLACKROD is another consistent performer, who has won four races and only finished out of the frame in two of his nine career starts. There was no fluke about his reappearance win at Newmarket over 1,200m in April where he was always well positioned and hit the rising ground well to win by a length-and-a-half. A five-pound rise in the weights for that win looks more than fair and the form is holding up with several of the horses that finished in behind him going on to register big handicap wins this season. While he has never run at Ascot, this track should suit him based on his most recent effort and Michael Dods’ runner should be there at the finish.
JUMBY finished five-lengths behind BLACKROD at Newmarket but didn’t have the easiest of runs through from the back of the field after having to switch outside rivals in order to get a run. With better luck he would have got closer to the winner and there is the suspicion that this horse still has a big run in him, with his current rating just above the one he defied at Newmarket over 1,400m in September last year.
Previous Ascot form is always an advantage and FRESH came within a neck second in this contest last season. That came on soft ground, and while he remains competitively weighted, only marginally higher in the handicap than last year, quick ground might hinder his chances of winning.
Andrew Balding’s FIVETHOUSANDTOONE has not quite made the impact many expected him to in 11 starts to date. He was last seen finishing fifth of five at Kempton over 1,200m in January, but has since been gelded and if that has the desired effect he could take a step forward.
SELECTIONS: 15. QUARANTINE DREAMS, 20. BLACKROD, 5. JUMBY, 25. FRESH & 23. FIVETHOUSANDTOONE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 15. QUARANTINE DREAMS
Selections – 20. BLACKROD, 5. JUMBY, 25. FRESH & 23. FIVETHOUSANDTOONE
S1-6:
Banker – 4. MISSED THE CUT
Selections – 7. FALLING SHADOW, 5. HONITON, 3. PHANTOM FLIGHT & 1. ALDOUS HUXLEY
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 15. QUARANTINE DREAMS, 20. BLACKROD & 5. JUMBY
S1-6: Multiple – 4. MISSED THE CUT, 7. FALLING SHADOW & 5. HONITON
S1-7: Multiple – 5. FALCON EIGHT, 11. WORDSWORTH & 9. RESHOUN
S1-6 Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap)
MISSED THE CUT makes his handicap debut in the 1,993m Golden Gates Stakes after a couple of impressive wide-margin wins. After a promising debut when fourth in a good 2,000m Newmarket novice, he made a massive impact when storming clear to land a 1,605m Pontefract maiden by 11 lengths in April. He backed that up by cruising clear of some smart prospects to win a 1,983m Salisbury novice race under a penalty. There’s every chance he is going to end up better than a handicapper for trainer George Boughey.
FALLING SHADOW made a successful return from a five-month break when easily landing a 2,000m Newbury maiden in May. He had won a 1,729m novice on Wolverhampton’s tapeta track in December, but was disqualified after a post-race test revealed he had a prohibited substance in his system. Charlie Appleby’s Godolphin runner was gelded after last month’s victory and is open to plenty of progression.
HONITON finished third behind subsequent Queen’s Vase winner ELDAR ELDAROV over 2,038m on Newcastle’s tapeta track in May. That’s obviously very good form and he backed it up by landing a 1,990m Sandown maiden by nine lengths last week. The fast ground seemed to suit him well so he should love these conditions.
PHANTOM FLIGHT is progressing well. He is looking to complete a hat-trick after victories at Redcar and Haydock. The way he won his most recent race against useful opposition was very promising. There’s a fair bit of stamina in his pedigree so he should be even better over this longer 1,993m distance, and his young trainer James Horton has his team in superb form.
ALDOUS HUXLEY had MISSED THE CUT behind him when runner-up behind NEW LONDON in a 2,000m Newmarket novice race in April. That was a solid effort as he was carrying a penalty for his wide-margin debut win over 1,999m on Kempton’s polytrack. He just got outstayed by LIONEL in a 2,240m Goodwood Listed race on soft ground last month and he will be happier returned to 1,993m on this faster surface.
SELECTIONS: 4. MISSED THE CUT, 7. FALLING SHADOW, 5. HONITON, 3. PHANTOM FLIGHT & 1. ALDOUS HUXLEY
S1-7 Queen Alexandra Stakes
This is the longest race in the Flat calendar, a marathon at 4,330m, which naturally requires stamina in abundance but also plenty of class to win. Dual-purpose horses that run in both flat and jumps races often do well and FALCON EIGHT has the proven stamina, after winning a hurdles race over 4,600m at Thurles in February, but also the back class on the flat as a Listed winner. His trainer Dermot Weld is highly adept at prepping a horse for Royal Ascot and this contest is likely to have been on his mind after FALCON EIGHT finished fifth in the Chester Cup over 3,727m on his last start. The 7YO was sent off a short-priced favourite for this race 12 months ago but looked to be unsuited by the soft ground on that occasion and quick conditions are likely to see a totally different performance.
WORDSWORTH is perhaps the classiest in this field after placing twice in G1 company last season. Both those runs came over a trip of 2,400m, but he proved he has greater reserves of stamina when finishing a close fourth in the G3 Sagaro Stakes over 3,190m at this course in April. Fast ground suits this son of GALILEO, but whether his stamina can be stretched out over this extra distance remains to be seen and that might just leave him vulnerable in the closing stages.
This is certainly a quick turnaround for Ian Williams’ RESHOUN after he finished a good fifth in the Ascot Stakes over 4,001m on Tuesday. He was nearly last turning into the home straight on that occasion but made relentless progress down the centre of the track to run into a never nearer fifth at the line. That suggested he would relish this extra distance and if he’s still in the same form he looks to hold a strong chance.
CALLING THE WIND won at Goodwood last season and is a consistent performer in these sorts of races. A strong travelling type, expect to see him range up on the bridle, but whether he will find as much as some when under pressure remains to be seen. He might also appreciate slightly slower ground conditions to those forecast.
Master jumps trainer Willie Mullins has won this three times, including with STRATUM last season. The 9YO returns to defend his crown and while he can run another competitive race, he might be vulnerable to younger legs this time around.
SELECTIONS: 5. FALCON EIGHT, 11. WORDSWORTH, 9. RESHOUN, 4. CALLING THE WIND & 3. STRATUM
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