 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Takarazuka Kinen Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 3yo and up 1 win
This is an allowance race for one time winning 3YO and upper over 1,400m on dirt at Hanshin.
My favourite is VIGOROUS DANCER, trained by Yasuo Tomomichi. She is a beautifully-bred filly as she is by MAURICE, winner of six G1 titles including Hong Kong Mile, Champions Mile, and Hong Kong Cup, and her dam is half-sister to CHRONO GENESIS, four time G1 winner, and NORMCORE, winner of G1 Victoria Mile and G1 Hong Kong Cup. She won a maiden at Hanshin on 19th March, which was her second start, by three and a half lengths, and finished second in an allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo on 12th June. Her performance in the allowance race gives me the impression that VIGOROUS DANCER has enough ability to graduate the class for one time winners, provided that she breaks quickly. In fact, she dwelt coming out of stalls in her first start. I believe she has an every chance to win on Sunday.
MIKKI FRANKEL, who returned from NAR to JRA recently, is my second choice. His difficult temperament affected adversely on his performance at racecourses and failed to win any race through five starts at JRA in 2020 and 2021. He was gelded and transferred to NAR earlier this year. And he collected three wins in regional racing at Nagoya. MIKKI FRANKEL has been trained well at Ritto Training Centre and I feel that he has now matured mentally and physically.
HIRONO SHUN, trained by Yoshihiko Kawamura, has been running consistently at this class, finishing fourth in an allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo on 8th May and second in another allowance race for the same class at Chukyo on 5th June. His running time, 1 minute and 24.4 seconds in that race is faster than standard and I believe the 3YO gelding by CURREN BLACK HILL should have a good chance to finish within the first three on Sunday.
LORD ORDEN, trained by Yasuyuki Tsujino, is my fourth choice. The 3YO colt by LEONTES won a maiden over the same course and distance as this race on 27th March, which was his sixth start and the first start on dirt. Although LORD ORDEN was beaten sixth in an allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 10th April, I assess this was a good effort, as LYRA BOND and T O STEALTH, second finisher and fourth finisher in that race, would have won the allowance race for one time winners subsequently.
SATONO TEMPEST, who finished second in an allowance for one time winners at Hanshin on 18th June, although it was the first start for the 4YO colt by HEART’S CRY since April 2021, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 11. VIGOROUS DANCER, 16. MIKKI FRANKEL, 6. HIRONO SHUN, 5. LORD ORDEN & 1. SATONO TEMPEST
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-1:
Banker – 11. VIGOROUS DANCER
Selections – 16. MIKKI FRANKEL, 6. HIRONO SHUN, 5. LORD ORDEN & 1. SATONO TEMPEST
S1-2:
Banker – 5. AATHIT
Selections – 2. RED VALIENTE, 10. DEAN’S LISTER, 6. T O SOLENNEL & 13. MACHA MONG RUAD
S1-2 3yo and up 1 win
This is an allowance race for one time winning 3YO and upper over 2,200m on turf, which is the same distance as the feature race Takarazuka Kinen at Hanshin.
My favourite is AATHIT, who has been running well in recent starts. The 3YO colt by DEEP IMPACT trained by Yasuo Tomomichi, finished fourth in an allowance race for one time winners at Hanshin on 2nd April, when he had a traffic problem on homestretch. And AATHIT finished third in the Listed Shirayuri Stakes at Chukyo on 29th May, when he stumbled soon after break. AATHIT won a maiden over 2,200m at Chukyo on 8th January and I judge 2,200m is the best trip for him.
RED VALIENTE is not typical offspring by DEEP IMPACT, as he looks much stronger than DEEP IMPACT, and does not have sharp turn of foot, which many of DEEP IMPACT’s offspring have. Instead of turn of foot, RED VALLIENTE has power and stamina, which he might inherit from his dam, SABOR A TRIUNFO, who is Chilean Champion. RED VALIENTE finished second in an allowance race for one time winners at Tokyo on 28th May and I believe he has a good chance to finish within the first two, if he re-produces his form of previous start on Sunday.
Blue blood DEAN’S LISTER, trained by Yoshito Yahagi, is my third choice. The full-brother to REAL STEEL, winner of G1 Dubai Turf, and LOVES ONLY YOU, who completed the Queen Elizabeth II Cup and Hong Kong Cup double in 2021, made successful racecourse debut at Chukyo on 28th May and major races in second half of season are in sight of the connections. And his morning track work at Ritto Training Centre on 16th June, when he was breezed together with KING HERMES, Graded Stakes winner, was impressive.
T O SOLENNEL, trained by Naosuke Sugai, who finished second in allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo on 11th June, is my fourth choice. It was a good effort from the 3YO colt by SILVER STATE, as it was the first start for him since 5th January, and the third finisher was around 4 lengths behind him, proves he has enough stamina to stay 2,200m.
MACHA MONG RUAD, who finished within the first four in the last four starts at this class, is my fifth choice. Morning track work of the 4YO filly by KING KAMEHAMEHA at Ritto Training Centre on 22nd June was very impressive and I am sure her condition is now improving.
SELECTIONS: 5. AATHIT, 2. RED VALIENTE, 10. DEAN’S LISTER, 6. T O SOLENNEL & 13. MACHA MONG RUAD
S1-3 Kinosaki Tokubetsu
Kinosaki Tokubetsu is a stakes race for one time winning 3YO and upper over 1,800m on turf at Hanshin.
My favourite is AL NASEEM trained by Shinsuke Hashiguchi. The 3YO colt by MAURICE is fourth finisher in G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes at Hanshin last December and he was two and three quarters lengths behind DO DEUCE, who eventually won the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) last month. And AL NASEEM finished second in an allowance race over the same course and distance as this race on 19th February. Although he was beaten seventh in G2 Spring Stakes at Nakayama on 20th March, it was slowly-run race and tough circumstances for the closer. While he has not run since then, he has been trained well at RittoTraining Centre and I am sure he is ready to run his race on Sunday.
My second choice is POKER, trained by Hiroyuki Uemura. The 3YO colt by REAL IMPACT won a maiden at Chukyo on 29th May and I regard this performance highly, as he dwelt coming out of stalls and still manage to win, covering final 600m for 34.2 seconds, which was the quickest in 16 runners. I access his late kick has first-class quality. The maiden race on 29th May was the first start for him since 6th November 2021 and POKER has been trained shaper in the morning since then.
SUN STOCKTON, who has been regarded highly by the connections from day one, is my third choice. After running poorly in G3 Keisei Hai at Nakayama on 16th January and G3 Kyodo News Hai at Tokyo on 13th February. The 3YO colt by WORLD ACE finished third at Nakayama on 16th April and proves he is competitive at the class for one time winners. And it is encouraging that Takeshi Yokoyama is booked again for him.
FOURSQUARE, who made a successful racecourse debut on 16th October 2021, when he won a maiden over the same course and distance as Kinosaki Tokubetsu, is my fourth choice. The 3YO colt by EPIPHANEIA finished fourth in the Listed Shirayuri Stakes at Chukyo on 29th May last time and I believe he should has every chance to finish within the first four in Kinosaki Tokubetsu, if he re-produces his best form.
SUNRISE HERMES was well beaten in an allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo on 27th March and I believe the distance of race 2,200m, was too long for the 5YO horse by RULERSHIP. He has finished within the first four at this class for four times and is capable to finish within the first five here.
SELECTIONS: 4. AL NASEEM, 3. POKER, 11. SUN STOCKTON, 6. FOURSQUARE & 1. SUNRISE HERMES
S1-4 Maiko Tokubetsu
Maiko Tokubetsu is the stakes race for two time winning 3YO and upper over 1,400m on turf at Hanshin.
My favourite is LUPINUS LEAD trained by Tatsuya Yoshioka. The 3YO filly by DAIWA MAJOR finished fourth in the Listed Elfin Stakes at Chukyo on 5th February, which is one of important prep races for G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas), and she just missed to run the first leg of Triple Tiara. LUPINUS LEAD won an allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo on 4th June, covering final 600m for 33.9 seconds, the quickest in 16 runners. The winning time, 1 minute and 19.7 seconds, is faster than standard and I reckon this is an excellent performance. She finished second in 2YO Newcomer over the same course and distance as Maiko Tokubetsu last November and this is the course where LUPINUS LEAD can handle well. And her morning track work at Ritto Training Centre on 18th June, when she was breezed for 800m and clocked 50.8 seconds, was impressive. I believe she is ready to show herself at her best on Sunday. Moreover, her weight, 112lbs, looks very attractive.
CORDIAL finished third in an allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo last November, and I regard this form highly, as VIOLINA, second finisher in this race, won the stakes race for three time winners at Chukyo on 21st May. CORDIAL had a winter break for three months after that allowance race and got back to battle line in February. Since then, she ran poorly twice and Tomokazu Takano, who trains the 4YO filly by EPIPHANEIA, decides to cut back the distance. CORDIAL runs the race over 1,400m for the first time on Sunday and I believe this change of strategy works well, as her dam, BONJOUR KOKORO, won four races between 1,200m and 1,400m. CORDIAL is my second choice.
ALTSTADT is my third choice. The 3YO colt by LORD KANALOA finished fourth in the Listed Crocus Stakes at Tokyo on 29th January, and I believe he should have a good chance to finish within the first three, if he re-produces his best form on Sunday. His morning track work at Ritto Training Centre on 17th June, when he breezed for 1,000m and clocked 1 minute 4.7 seconds, was impressive and I am sure he is in top form.
MEISHO BEPPIN has finished within the first four in last three starts for two time winners and it is obvious that the 5YO mare by TO THE GLORY is a consistent runner in this class. While she may prefer an anti-clockwise track, I believe she should have a good chance to finish within the first four in this race.
WIN SPIRYTUS, who finished second in a handicap for two time winners over the same course and distance as Maiko Tokubetsu on 1st May, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 7. LUPINUS LEAD, 8. CORDIAL, 4. ALTSTADT, 2. MEISHO BEPPIN & 5. WIN SPIRYTUS
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4:
Banker – 7. LUPINUS LEAD
Selections – 8. CORDIAL, 4. ALTSTADT, 2. MEISHO BEPPIN & 5. WIN SPIRYTUS
S1-5:
Banker – 11. GOLD PALADIN
Selections – 10. LOWELL, 2. ALMEIDA MINORU, 14. GODAIRIKI & 8. SHEPHERD BOY
S1-5 Hananomichi Stakes
Hananomichi Stakes is for three-time winning 3YO and upper over 1,400m on dirt at Hanshin.
My favourite is GOLD PALADIN, trained by Tatsuya Yoshioka, who finished second in allowance race for three time winners at Tokyo on 5th June. It was the third time for the 5YO horse by SCREEN HERO to finish second in this class and I am sure he is competitive at the class for three time winners. While he is a consistent performer between 1,700m and 1,800m, it looks 1,400m is more suitable for him and I believe GOLD PALADIN will graduate from this class on Sunday.
LOWELL, 4YO gelding by KIZUNA, is my second choice. He won allowance race for two time winners over the same course and same as Hananomichi Stakes on 17th April by three and a half lengths, which was impressive, and finished good second in allowance race for three time winners at Tokyo on 15th May, although it was the first time for him to compete against three time winners. He has collected all his three wins in races over 1,400m and this is the ideal trip for him. And it looks he is the only runner with speed in this field and is likely that LOWELL predominates the race at front.
ALMEIDA MINORU, 4YO colt trained by Yoshihito Kitade, won allowance race for two-time winners at Tokyo on 8th May by five lengths and the winning time, 1 minute and 23.6 seconds, was faster than standard. Although this is the first time for him to compete in this class, I feel he is capable to finish within the first three on Sunday.
GODAIRIKI, for whom Christophe Lemaire is booked for Sunday, is my fourth choice. The 4YO colt by MAURICE graduated the class for two time winners over the same course and distance as Hananomichi Stakes on 13th March, when he won the allowance race by half a length. After that, he finished fourth in the allowance race for three time winners at Tokyo on 24th April. For a runner who competed against three time winners for the first time, his performance was respectable. And I am sure 1,400m is the most suitable trip for him.
SHEPHERD BOY, who finished within first five in the last three starts at this class, is my fifth choice. The 6YO horse by NOVELLIST, trained by Ryuji Okubo, has collected all his three wins at Hanshin and it is obvious that Hanshin is his favourite track.
SELECTIONS: 11. GOLD PALADIN, 10. LOWELL, 2. ALMEIDA MINORU, 14. GODAIRIKI & 8. SHEPHERD BOY
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 11. GOLD PALADIN, 10. LOWELL & 2. ALMEIDA MINORU
S1-6: Multiple – 6. TITLEHOLDER, 1. AUTHORITY & 4. EFFORIA
S1-7: Multiple – 9. ENERGY ROSSO, 6. DAISHIN WIT & 5. ATTIVO
S1-6 Takarazuka Kinen
Showdown to conclude the first half of season in Japan is Takarazuka Kinen over 2,200m at Hanshin Racecourse.
My favourite is TITLEHOLDER, 4YO colt trained by Toru Kurita, who won G1 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) at Hanshin last October by five lengths and G1 Tenno Sho Spring at Hanshin on 1st May by seven lengths. The most suitable distance for TITLEHOLDER should be 3,000m or more, and I have to admit that 2,200m is shorter than ideal trip for TITLEHOLDER. However, we should not forget that he finished second to EFFORIA in G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), first leg of Japanese Triple Crown over 2,000m in April 2021. I believe 2,200m is within his field. TITLEHOLDER spent easy time at Onomachi Branch of Normandy Farm after Tenno Sho Spring and returned at Toru Kurita’s barn in Miho Training Centre on 1st June. His morning track work on 16th June at Miho was very impressive. TITLEHOLDER with Kazuo Yokoyama on saddle was breezed for 1,200m and clocked 80.0 seconds. Yokoyama, who rides TITLEHOLDER in Takarazuka Kinen, judges he condition now is better than that before Tenno Sho Spring.
I believe the strongest opponent for TITLEHOLDER is AUTHORITY, 5YO horse trained by Tetsuya Kimura, who has been running consistently at the highest competition since last autumn. He finished second to CONTRAIL in G1 Japan Cup at Tokyo last November, and finished third to SHAHRYAR in G1 Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan on 26th March. If he re-produces those forms, I am sure AUTHORITY is one of the leading contenders in Takarazuka Kinen. I understand he prefers anti-clockwise track, however, we should not forget that AUTHORITY won an open class race at Nakayama, which is clockwise track. AUTHORITY is my second choice.
The question how we should assess EFFORIA is crucial when anticipating this year’s Takarazuka Kinen, Japanese Horse of the Year in 2021. The 4YO colt by EPIPHANEIA was beaten 9th in G1 Osaka Hai at Hanshin on 3rd April and the connections have not given us any explanations why he ran so poorly. While I am not surprised if EFFORIA wins Takarazuka Kinen easily, I cannot rank him better than third choice.
My fourth choice is HISHI IGUAZU, who finished second to LOVES ONLY YOU in G1 Hong Kong Cup at Sha Tin last December and finished fourth in G1 Osaka Hai at Hanshin on 3rd April. The 6YO horse by HEART’S CRY has been trained well at Miho Training Centre since Osaka Hai, and his trainer, Noriyuki Hori, expects HISHI IGUAZU performs better in Takatazuka Kinen than in Osaka Hai.
My fifth choice is DARING TACT, unbeaten winner of Triple Tiara in 2020. She was beaten 6th in G1 Victoria Mile at Tokyo on 15th May, and I access it was a good effort, as it was the first start for her since 25th April in 2021.
SELECTIONS: 6. TITLEHOLDER, 1. AUTHORITY, 4. EFFORIA, 10. HISHI IGUAZU & 7. DARING TACT
S1-7 Ribbon Sho
Ribbon Sho is a stakes race for two time winning 3YO and upper over 1,200m on dirt at Hanshin.
My favourite is ENERGY ROSSO, trained by Daisuke Takayanagi. The 4YO filly by HOKKO TARUMAE won allowance race for one time winners on 13th November 2021 by four lengths, which was impressive, and finished second in allowance race for two time winners on 28th December 2021, both were over the same course and distance as Ribbon Sho. In view of all those performances, I thought ENERGY ROSSO should graduate this class soon, however, she ran poorly twice since then and I estimate her fitness was not 100% in February and March. ENERGY ROSSO has been trained very well recently at Ritto Training Centre, and I have a feeling that she has regained her top form now.
DAISHIN WIT, trained by Michihiro Ogasa, finished fourth in allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as Ribbon Sho on 27th March, and third in allowance race for the same class at Nakayama on 10th April. As I assess the competition in Ribbon Sho is slightly weaker than the last two starts of DAISHIN WIT, I believe the 5YO horse by SOUTH VIGOROUS should have a good chance to finish within first two in Ribbon Sho, if he re-produces his recent form on Sunday. And it is good news to hear that Takeshi Yokoyama is booked for him.
One of most consistent runners in the field of Ribbon Sho is ATTIVO, who finished second in allowance race for two time winners at Kokura on 20th February, and third twice afterwards in the allowance races for the same class at Chukyo on 12th March and Hanshin on 9th April respectively. While ATTIVO is now 8YO, it is evident that he is still full of vigour and ATTIVO is my third choice.
NOBO VERSAILLES graduated the class for one time winners on 23th January, when the 4YO filly won allowance race over 1,200m on dirt at Nakayama. Then, she finished fourth in allowance race for two time winners at Chukyo on 28th May and I assess it was a good effort from the filly by LEONTES, as it was the first time for her to compete against two time winners. I believe she should perform better on Sunday than her previous start and NOBO VERSAILLES is my fourth choice.
This is first start for YOSSHI FAITH since January 2021, and his fitness might be 80% or more or less to be frankly. On the other hand, his performance when he won allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo was impressive and he won maiden over the same course and distance as Ribbon Sho in July 2020. I think he is capable to finish within the first five here.
SELECTIONS: 9. ENERGY ROSSO, 6. DAISHIN WIT, 5. ATTIVO, 3. NOBO VERSAILLES & 1. YOSSHI FAITH
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