Expert - Luke Middlebrook's Bio

Luke has been a devout follower and form student of horse racing in Hong Kong and Singapore for over 10 years, during which time he became renowned as a leading analyst for Asian racing through various social media channels. In June 2016, Luke moved to Singapore to join the iRace Media as Chief Editor for the English edition, where he oversees all form-related and editorial content for horse racing in Hong Kong and Singapore.

Expert Column for Singapore Derby Day (S1) (Luke Middlebrook)

 

S1-1 Class 5 Handicap

 

A trainer in-form, James Peters sends out RUSSIAN TWIST here who put the writing on the wall with a half-length beaten margin into third on his first Class 5 run at this track and distance 15 days ago. On Sunday, he will jump from barrier 1 where jockey Vladimir Duric should gain one of the better runs in transit. That stands them out as the ones to beat here.

Leading trainer Timothy Fitzsimmons’ class-dropper INTREPID can give this race a shake. The 5YO mare is always better off in Class 5 and returns to the grade for the first time since March. With good track and distance stats of two wins and a second placing from eight attempts, INTREPID will be there fighting out the finish with an expected good run from barrier 4.

4YO ALEXANDER is an honest Class 5 campaigner, with one win and three placings from eight tries. He was last seen racing wide throughout over 1,200m on the polytrack but still managed to check home a sounds third place. His chances will improve back onto turf based on his prior form and from barrier 2 he will also be one to map a winning chance.

Barrier 10 for WILD BEE won’t do him any favours but he is generally one who gets back in the run anyway. This is his fourth run back in Class 5, where he is a two-time winner and three-time place-getter from 10 starts, and there’s no concerns with him switching to this track and distance as he has performed well here before. If the early tempo of the race is faster than average, he looks the one who can finish strongly over the top late.

The early tempo will all depend on last-start winner AUSPICIOUS DAY, who is one of the pace influencers here—perhaps the only one who will vie for the lead. In fact, the 7YO is still racing with determination based on his recent good form, which comprises two second place finishes and a win from his last five starts, and he relishes this track and distance. P H Seow claims 7lbs on the bottom weight and that will give the gelding every chance to give a bold sight.

 

SELECTIONS: 2. RUSSIAN TWIST, 1. INTREPID, 6. ALEXANDER, 3. WILD BEE & 10. AUSPICIOUS DAY

 

S1-2 Class 4 Handicap

 

An open 1,800m race here but trainer Steven Burridge’s runner LIM’S DREAMWALKER piques a lot of interest. This 4YO has been a handful throughout his career as he resents the whip and has dumped the rider in the past. Hence, you’ll see apprentice jockey Fadzli Yusoff riding just hands and heels in this race. The chestnut has been in a rich vein of form this preparation with winning twice and placing three times from his eight starts. His first attempt over 1,800m is the query, but he looks to have a few more rating points up his sleeve.

WIND TRAIL, on the other hand, will relish the 1,800m and he is getting close to another win after last scoring in March 2021. He’s only lightly-raced this season, with three starts which have amounted to two second placings, and he has the class to take out a race of this nature.

Old-timer GREEN STAR, the 8YO who is racing in a rich vein of form, vies for a hat-trick of wins here. He won a 1,800m race over WIND TRAIL two starts ago and proved it no fluke by repeating the dose last start over 1,600m. This race presents no tougher task and from barrier 3 under an in-form jockey and trainer, Ronald Stewart and Stephen Crutchley, there’s no reason why he can’t fight out the finish again.

GLOBAL KID has been hard to catch of his 23-start career in Singapore, which his record of one win and five placings suggests, however since transferring to Michael Clements’ yard, he has taken improvement. You can overlook his most recent effort over the mile as he raced wide that day and suffered for it. Prior, he checked home a good third to GREEN STAR on this track and distance, and rates a knockout chance based on that.

There are a few who can press forward here and GREAT EXPECTATION is one of those. He is an out and out 1,800m or further horse and was a decent winner three starts ago. He has form all around this week’s competition and under the right race shape, will be on-pace for a long while.

 

SELECTIONS: 3. LIM’S DREAMWALKER, 1. WIND TRAIL, 2. GREEN STAR, 6. GLOBAL KID & 5. GREAT EXPECTATION

 

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:   
Banker – 3. LIM’S DREAMWALKER
Selections – 1. WIND TRAIL, 2. GREEN STAR, 6. GLOBAL KID & 5. GREAT EXPECTATION
S1-3:   
Banker – 1. VGOR
Selections – 6. ABSOLVIDO, 3. BE YOU, 2. REAL SUCCESS & 5. DANCING TYCOON

 

S1-3 Class 4 Handicap

 

VGOR is sure to find this race easier after a failed attempt in the 1,600m Singapore G2 Stewards’ Cup last time. Prior to that, he was an impressive winner at this track and distance as a well-backed race favourite. Overall, he has been in fine form this season, winning twice and placing once from nine outings. From barrier 3 under Benny Woodworth, he can map a winning chance similar to his win two starts back.

Barrier 1, on paper, appears ideal for most runners generally, however noted backmarker ABSOLVIDO may not be able to make much use of it as he is never in the leading division. However, last start over 1,200m, he did map handier to the speed for the first time in a long while and let down strongly late into fourth. The rise to 1,400m poses no problems for this 8YO and he appears on track for another win in due course.

BE YOU returned to winning form for the first time in over a year and a half for the Shane Baertschiger camp at this track and distance on 18th June. The 4YO is an honest Class 4 campaigner and is rarely far away in a finish. He looks a decent ride for Blake Shinn but there’ll be some early tactics required from barrier 6 for the 1,400m course. With a smothered-up run, he can be produced late and give this a shake.

Trainer Michael Clements will be hopeful his 6YO REAL SUCCESS can return to the form he showed two starts ago when an eye-catcher late into second place. Last start over 1,600m didn’t result in a cheque as he was only moderate into eighth place. He is, however, well-rated in Class 4 and does have the Duric factor.

DANCING TYCOON is one who can improve sharply second-up after a fair fourth when first-up off almost three-month spell. The two-time winner from four was only beaten by 0.9 lengths on that occasion, which was his first attempt over 1,400m, and he should be much fitter second-up now. Jockey Jake Bayliss is riding very well of late and expect him to show some early speed to take up an on-pace position from barrier 8.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. VGOR, 6. ABSOLVIDO, 3. BE YOU, 2. REAL SUCCESS & 5. DANCING TYCOON

 

S1-4 Class 3 Handicap

 

7YO TANGIBLE has found an ideal race to bounce back to winning ways in this 1,600m Class 3 Handicap. The former Hong Kong galloper, under the name COT CAMPBELL, has been seen 15 times in Singapore, amassing two wins and eight placings. He had plenty of excuses in running last start, racing wide throughout from barrier 6 at this track and distance and was beaten 8.2 lengths into eighth place. In four prior starts, he was never out of the top three. Coming into barrier 3 under Vlad Duric can prove a big difference to his chances here.

The speed map, however, clearly favours IRONCHAMP. The noted frontrunner appears to get it his own way on the lead this week, with no other horse known to be in that position on what they’ve shown in the past. Expect jockey P H SEOW to ping the gates and be in front shortly after the start. She can rack them and stack them and will leading for a long while it seems.

SO HI CLASS certainly won’t be leading but from barrier 2 under Daniel Moor, can be no worse than midfield enduring a soft run in transit. The 6YO has not won for over a year now but has been threatening, as seen last start over 1,400m when he finished strongly late into second place. The rise to 1,600m, on paper, will suit him ever better, as he boasts five wins and just as many placings from 18 attempts.

LEATHERHEAD for trainer Ricardo Le Grange is another who relished 1,600m. He, top, boasts five wins at the distance and was only seen last week but unsuited under the racing conditions, which was a 2,000m Kranji Stakes A race. Prior, he posted two consecutive third placings and a polytrack 1,700m win. He was won previously on a quick back up, so that should pose no problems.

SAVVY COMMAND for Blake Shinn races first-up off almost a two-month break, but generally goes well when produced fresh with two wins and a third from four starts. He’s never far away in a finish but it’s worth noting it’s been just over a year since he tasted success—perhaps his time will be now.

 

SELECTIONS: 4. TANGIBLE, 7. IRONCHAMP, 1. SO HI CLASS, 3. LEATHERHEAD & 2. SAVVY COMMAND

 

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4:   
Banker – 4. TANGIBLE
Selections – 7. IRONCHAMP, 1. SO HI CLASS, 3. LEATHERHEAD & 2. SAVVY COMMAND
S1-5:   
Banker – 6. KING ARTHUR
Selections – 5. BIG HEARTED, 3. GOLD STAR, 2. HONGKONG GREAT & 4. FAME STAR

 

S1-5 Class 1 Handicap

 

Thriving 4YO KING ARTHUR is simply flying this season, winning five from eight while placing a further two times. He was pegged as a polytrack horse but his sizzling last-start win on this turf track over 1,200m was proof he’s not a one trick pony. This will be his toughest test to date—rising to Class 1 where there’s no place to hide—but he’s still on the up and he should be mapping to get all the favours as there’s a ton of speed engaged and he should be camped just off it.

Another who will relish a fast run race is talented 5YO BIG HEARTED from the Michael Clements-yard. He makes his eagerly awaited return to the races after last seen in early February this year. Though he is generally more effective over 1,400m and further, he looked sharp in his most recent trial and he has a swift turn-of-foot to produce under the right race shape. Potentially a tricky ride for 9lbs apprentice Mamat Ibrahim, he will need to time it right from a rearward position but look for them making their presence felt late.

GOLD STAR will be another finishing strongly late and he will be a big improver off his most recent effort where he was outclassed and unsuited in the G3 Kranji Mile. He raced wide throughout on that occasion and finished down the track in 15th. He returns to the races first-up off almost a two-month break and won a recent trial in smart order. Based on his win two starts ago beating LIM'S KOSCIUSZKO, he has to be rated a solid winning chance here.

A very interesting first starter here from Hong Kong: HONGKONG GREAT. He is first-up off almost a four-month break after last seen on 6th March in a Class 1 Handicap over 1,650m on Sha Tin’s all-weather track but was well-beaten. He did, however, look very well in his first and only Singapore trial on Tuesday, suggesting he’s in good order. The turf and 1,200m distance do look queries here but he has a ton of class on his day.

FAME STAR is one of the on-pace horses who can play a part in the finish under the circumstances. However, with the early tempo appearing to look strong, with the top weight CELAVI and SKY EYE others who will likely press forward, he might be pressured and feel the pinch late.

 

SELECTIONS: 6. KING ARTHUR, 5. BIG HEARTED, 3. GOLD STAR, 2. HONGKONG GREAT & 4. FAME STAR

 

S1-6 Class 4 Handicap

 

FORTUNE CHANGER looks a great chance to shed his local maiden tag here at his 10th time of trying. He was last seen racing first-up off a nine-month break and despite racing wide throughout, still managed to check home into second place over 1,200m. The rise to 1,400m second-up does look ideal for him here but he will need some luck from the wide draw. With a decent straight run until the turn, he should have ample time to find a conducive position in the run.

Blake Shinn’s ride, SACRED JUDGEMENT, is also one who can relish the rise in distance. A two-time winner and four-time second place-getter at the track and distance, he has been itching to get on the board this season after three placings from eight starts. He is well-rated these days and it won’t be a surprise to see Shinn pounce straight to the front and give them all something to run down.

Old-timer PREDITOR certainly piques interest as he returns to Class 4 for the first time since January 2017. The now 9YO last found a spot in the placings in September last year and has generally been well-beaten in eight starts this season. In his favour this week, along with the class drop, is that he gets Vladimir Duric in the saddle and nice, low drawn in barrier 2. It won’t be a surprise to see him run a much-improved race.

For leading trainer Timothy Fitzsimmons, FIREWORKS is one who can pick up a minor cheque. He is yet to win in Class 4 but has placed on three occasions with two of those occurring in his last five starts. He is a noted backmarker and will race for luck, but look for him making a late bid.

ROCKET RYANE is another who has mostly done his best work in Class 5 but he did win a race of this nature two starts ago but was sent out at over 20/1 that day, so questions remain if it was a fluke performance. His last-start 10th place finish can be forgiven as he simply led too quick and he felt the pinch late, fading late but only beaten 4.1 lengths.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. FORTUNE CHANGER, 4. SACRED JUDGEMENT, 2. PREDITOR, 5. FIREWORKS & 6. ROCKET RYANE

 

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 1. FORTUNE CHANGER, 4. SACRED JUDGEMENT & 2. PREDITOR
S1-7: Multiple – 1. LIM’S KOSCIUSZKO, 2. RELENTLESS & 3. TIGER ROAR
S1-8: Multiple – 2. WAR PRIDE, 3. WEALTH ELITE & 1. QUADCOPTER

 

S1-7 Singapore Derby

 

LIM’S KOSCIUSZKO remains the one to beat over his fellow 4YOs, despite finishing runner-up in the lead up to the Derby, the Singapore G2 Stewards’ Cup over 1,600m last start. Drawn out wide in barrier 11 on that occasion, he was forced to work early to find the lead and he did return faster than average early splits. That left him vulnerable late and he was collared late inside the final 50m to go down by 0.8 lengths. This week’s race shape will play a vital role for his winning chances but he does appear to be the only lead, therefore he should be getting all the favours and just needs some softer early splits to turn the tables on RELENTLESS.

RELENTLESS is obviously the one who will be pegged as hardest to beat after winning the Stewards’ Cup in strong fashion. He had a world-perfect run in transit on that occasion, mapping midfield and enjoying a true run race. He was too strong late and well and truly defied his handicap rating at level weights over LIM’S KOSCIUSZKO. With such a long, straight run until the turn, he looks to get another dream run just off the pace and will be trying to gun down LIM’S KOSCIUSZKO again late.

One who will relish the rise in distance is the Michael Clements-trained TIGER ROAR. He enters the Derby third-up off a fairly lengthy break was sensational winning first-up over 1,200m in early June. He got too far back in the Stewards’ Cup but did do his usual best work late, checking home strongly into third but beaten fair and square by three lengths. While the two aforementioned chances are unknowns over 1,800m, TIGER ROAR boasts a win and a second placing at the distance. From barrier 8, he will get back, but won’t want to give too much of a head start like last time.

Hong Kong pundits will no doubt be keen on Blake Shinn’s Derby ride AMAZING BREEZE here. The three-time winner from 16 only just bounced back to winning form this season two starts ago, winning a Class 4 1,400m Handicap in eye-catching manner. Last start in the Stewards’ Cup, he was checked early, settled back in the field but ran on strongly late into fifth place. He will likely do same here and may be able to sneak in for a place chance, as a win appears an uphill task on weights and measures.

Trainer Hideyuki Takaoka has three Derbies to his name, so he well and truly knows what it takes to get the job done, and his entrant CON SPERANZA has some hope. The TAVISTOCK gelding has endured a fine season, winning once and placing second twice from four outing and he was last seen racing first-up in the Stewards’ Cup. He sat on-pace that day and seemed to absorb the high pressure of the race okay, only fading late into fourth and beaten 4.6 lengths. One would think he would be stripping much fitter second-up now and he certainly has what it takes to be there fighting out the finish.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. LIM’S KOSCIUSZKO, 2. RELENTLESS, 3. TIGER ROAR, 6. AMAZING BREEZE & 5. CON SPERANZA

 

S1-8 Class 4 Handicap

 

WAR PRIDE is the standout here after a solid first-up run off a three-month break on 18th June. He was unsuited under the racing conditions that day as he has always performed much better on turf, so his fifth place—beaten 3.9 lengths—was decent. Two big factors to enhance his chances here are Vladimir Duric picking up the ride as well as coming into barrier 1, where he should endure a world-perfect run in transit.

WEALTH ELITE is another who is more than capable of winning this and he, too, enters this race second-up. He was last seen first-up over 1,200m polytrack—his first run back off an eight-month spell. Though he generally does do his best work on the alternative racing surface, he’s too well-rated in Class 4 and he has a powerful finish up his sleeve under the right race shape.

Another who is well placed at Class 4 level is the Hideyuki Takaoka-trained QUADCOPTER. He is at his fifth start back in the grade since making the class drop in March and you can simply forget about his last start when the rider was dislodged. Though his better winning form is over 1,400m, he still boasts respectable track and distance form.

One down the bottom of the weights that intrigues is trainer Jerome Tan’s 4YO MASTER PLAYER. The two-time winner from seven has yet to show up in Class 4, with four unplaced efforts, but also hasn’t had much luck in recent outings. Two starts ago, when meeting solid market support, he cast a plate in running while last start, he struck a slowly run race but did run on strongly against the race shape, checking home 3.2 lengths into fifth place. He has drawn nice and low and could be one to surprise at odds.

THE SHADOW is another who has yet to post a Class 4 win, but has finished runner-up twice from eight tries. He was last seen on 18th June flashing home late into second place over this distance on the polytrack. He generally does get back in the run, so will rely on luck more so than others. A win would surprise, but places seem fair.

 

SELECTIONS: 2. WAR PRIDE, 3. WEALTH ELITE, 1. QUADCOPTER, 10. MASTER PLAYER & 7. THE SHADOW

 

 

Disclaimer:

The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.

HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.