Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

Expert Column for Goodwood Cup Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)

 

S1-1 4yo+ Handicap

 

How fitting if Glorious Goodwood kicked off with a winner for The Queen in her Platinum Jubilee year.

And that is certainly no pipedream as Her Majesty’s JUST FINE showed enough when finishing sixth in the prestigious John Smith’s Cup at York over 2,051m last time to suggest he is returning to form at the right time. JUST FINE, who has won twice at Sandown, was disappointing when favourite in the 2,392m Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot , but he can be forgiven that lapse as he could not find daylight up the straight and Ryan Moore accepted the situation before the 200m pole.

BELL ROCK is ridden by an excellent claiming jockey Harry Davies and is attempting to make it ‘third time lucky’, having been targeted at this 1,984m handicap for the last two years. In 2020, he was an excellent third and 12 months later torrential rain changed the ground, so he was a late withdrawal. BELL ROCK then ran a terrific race to finish third in the Cambridgeshire Handicap over 1,800m at Newmarket, and last season started with an impressive win at the Guineas meeting. He has since been upped in grade, being placed in G3 and Listed races at Haydock, Windsor and York. He will relish both this fast ground and step back up in distance and has a big shout.

Like JUST FINE, CARADOC suffered a nightmare run up the straight in the John Smith’s Cup at York, so that run is best forgotten. He was runner-up in this race last year and was also second at the April meeting this season, so the track suits him. Furthermore, all his four wins have been on this fast ground.

ETONIAN, another who will love this ground, is lightly raced and won the G3 Solario Stakes at Sandown on only his second appearance at two. He missed most of the following season but showed he was back on song when only beaten a neck at Ascot recently.

The ground is likely to be better on the first day than it will be for the rest of the meeting, which will suit LORD PROTECTOR, who defied top weight at Sandown over 1,990m last time. He could never overcome a wide draw at Chester on his seasonal reappearance, but he is lightly-raced and even on this higher mark, is bound to be in the mix.

SELECTIONS: 14. JUST FINE, 15. CARADOC, 4. BELL ROCK, 6. LORD PROTECTOR & 8. ETONIAN

 

S1-2 Vintage Stakes

 

The Listed 1,400m Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot has provided the winner of this race in each of the last three renewals.

While HOLLOWAY BOY was a surprise winner in that contest, his performance hinted at a colt of serious potential as he made up relentless ground in the final 400m to win with plenty in hand at the line. When you consider that was his racecourse debut it makes it all the more impressive. There are mixed messages about the strength of that form so far, but there should be plenty more to come from Karl Burke’s colt on only his second start and any improvement would make him difficult to beat.

MYSTERIOUS NIGHT steps up in trip after finishing third in the G2 July Stakes over 1,200m at Newmarket (July Course) on his last outing. Godolphin’s son of DARK ANGEL caught the eye when keeping on well in the closing stages after getting outpaced when his rivals quickened and looks set for a big run with this trip expected to bring about improvement.

MARBAAN finished two lengths behind MYSTERIOUS NIGHT at Newbury over 1,200m in May before going on to win twice in novice company. The most recent of those victories came over 1,394m at Salisbury, where he looked to see out the trip well. However, Charlie Fellowes’ colt probably still has a bit to do to turn around his earlier form with the Godolphin horse.

Charlie & Mark Johnston’s DORNOCH CASTLE made all the running to win on debut at Haydock over 1,393m and showed a nice turn of foot to kick clear in the closing stages. He comfortably beat a subsequent two-time winner so it can be ranked a smart effort first time out. Next time, he didn’t appear to need to improve on that performance when winning under a penalty at Ayr over 1,445m at the beginning of the month. This son of GLENEAGLES looks sure to set the pace, but he’s likely to face competition for the lead and that could damage his chances of coming out on top.

Having had both of his two career starts at Goodwood, GALERON has proved he handles what can be a difficult track for young horses. The form of his most recent win over 1,200m in June has been boosted since with the second placed horse going on to win impressively at Newbury. Given this colt is out of a GALILEO dam, he should be suited by this step up in trip and is another with a chance in an open race.

SELECTIONS: 6. HOLLOWAY BOY, 9. MYSTERIOUS NIGHT, 4. DORNOCH CASTLE, 8. MARBAAN & 5. GALERON

 

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:   
Banker – 6. HOLLOWAY BOY
Selections – 9. MYSTERIOUS NIGHT, 4. DORNOCH CASTLE, 8. MARBAAN & 5. GALERON
S1-3:   
Banker – 7. SACRED
Selections – 5. POGO, 10. LUSAIL, 3. LANEQASH & 11. SANDRINE

 

S1-3 World Pool Lennox Stakes

 

Favourites have a strong recent record in the World Pool Lennox Stakes and SACRED looks to have a good chance of extending that run this year.

William Haggas’ 4YO has always been well-regarded and is a twice Group winner over 1,400m trip having landed the G3 Nell Gwyn Stakes and G2 Hungerford Stakes last year. She’s only been seen once this season so far – a fast finishing fifth in the G1 Platinum Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot – and she should go very well in conditions that will suit.

POGO certainly isn’t without a chance with the 6YO at the height of his powers. Despite being placed in several Group races during his career, Charlie Hills’ contender had failed to get his head in front, but he changed that with a gutsy victory in the G3 John Of Gaunt Stakes over 1,434m at Haydock in May. He then put in another career best to win the 1,400m G3 Criterion Stakes at Newmarket (July Course) last time and the in-form son of ZEBEDEE is definitely worth a crack at this G2 contest.

LUSAIL might not have won since August 2021, but he’s got some very solid form in the book. He was second to subsequent G1 Commonwealth Cup winner PERFECT POWER in Greenham Stakes at Newbury over 1,400m and was beaten just a head in the G1 St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot over 1,594m, before he ran really well again to finish third in the G1 Prix Jean Prat over 1,400m last time. Those are all top-class pieces of form and a repeat run would see him involved.

LANEQASH finished second to POGO twice in succession in the aforementioned Haydock and Newmarket (July Course) races before winning at Chester last time. That came in the Listed City Plate Stakes over 1,401m, and he won a shade easier than the winning margin suggested, though he’s come up short whenever faced with this sort of company before.

This will be the first time SANDRINE has run over this 1,409m trip. She was campaigned solely over 1,200m as a 2YO and her three runs this season have been over 1,600m. Andrew Balding’s filly is twice a Group winner and didn’t run too badly in the G1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket (July Course) last time, so does the have the ability to be involved.

SELECTIONS: 7. SACRED, 5. POGO, 10. LUSAIL, 3. LANEQASH & 11. SANDRINE

 

 

S1-4 Goodwood Cup

 

The G1 Goodwood Cup over 3,209m is a race that really rewards those at the head of the market with five of the past six favourites returning as winners.

Likely to take the place at the top of the market this year is KYPRIOS for Aidan O’Brien, and it’s not difficult to see why last month’s G1 Gold Cup over 3,991m winner will be popular. The son of GALILEO has been impressive in his 4YO campaign, including when winning the 2,800m G3 Saval Beg Stakes at Leopardstown by 14 lengths. There will be a few rivals lining up in this who will be out for revenge having contested, and lost out in, the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot.

Heading those up will be four-time winner of this race and staying division legend, STRADIVARIUS. The John & Thady Gosden-trained 8YO has experience over his rivals like no other and much has been made of his ride in the aforementioned Gold Cup. Frankie Dettori was widely criticised that day and it is the belief of some that the son of SEA THE STARS should have finished a lot closer than his bronze medal suggests. Andrea Atzeni is given the responsibility this time and if getting the right tune out of him could certainly go close to breaking his own record for most wins in this race.

The Andrew Balding-trained COLTRANE is stepping up in class as he contests Group company for the first time, but he made a mockery of his rivals in a Listed event at Sandown last time over the 3,245m when winning by 10 lengths. If he can improve on that performance, then he might just find himself at home in this company.

TRUESHAN was a wildly impressive winner of the Northumberland Plate over 3,251m on his last start when shouldering a huge weight. However, the ground here will surely not be to his liking. With conditions expected to be very quick, connections have made no secret about the horses need for cut in the ground and that has to be a big concern to his chances.

One horse in the field who is as versatile as they come as far as the ground is concerned is PRINCESS ZOE. She has won on both good and soft ground and while a little disappointing in the Gold Cup last month, Anthony Mullins’ mare is always worth a second look.

SELECTIONS: 4. KYPRIOS, 6. STRADIVARIUS, 2. COLTRANE, 8. TRUESHAN & 9. PRINCESS ZOE

 

 

S1-5 4yo+ 86-105 Handicap

 

Sprint races at Goodwood are virtually all downhill making this one of the fastest 1,000m in British racing. It’s unsurprising then that a proven ability to handle the track is an important factor, and several in this field have shown form here in the past.

CELSIUS is a course and distance winner and he looks the form horse coming into this race after winning his last two starts, most recently at Newmarket (July Course) over 1,000m. While he’s naturally been hit with a rise in the weights for that win, he has gone close off higher handicap marks in the past so still looks feasibly treated. In his current form, Tom Clover’s 6YO will be difficult to keep out of the frame.

Behind CELSIUS at Newmarket was NIGHT ON EARTH, who was probably inconvenienced by racing in isolation on the near side of the track. Despite that he looked to be closing at the finish and now having been dropped in the handicap to an attractive mark, he might be capable of getting closer to that rival.

INDIAN CREAK has won and finished a narrow second over 1,200m at Goodwood in the past and this season he has been running incredibly consistently, winning once and finishing second four times from eight starts. This son of CAMACHO is not short of pace and tends to lead or race prominently, but he has never run over 1,000m before. It’s interesting that he drops back in trip here and he could be dangerous if getting to the front early on.

An outsider in this field, but one that might have been overlooked, is LORD RIDDIFORD. John Quinn’s 7YO hasn’t won since taking this race 12 month ago and now finds himself lower in the weights than for that success. A record of two wins from three starts shows he thrives on this sharp track and while his most recent form has to be forgiven, it’s likely his two recent runs were intended to prepare him for another go at this race.

EQUALITY can be slow to break from the stalls – as he was on his only previous course start – which must be a worry, but if that is overlooked this son of EQUIANO certainly has the ability to win a race of this nature. Two starts ago he ran a big race to finish third in the Dash at Epsom over 1,000m, also a downhill track, and has since been given enough relief by the handicapper to suggest he can be involved again here.

SELECTIONS: 6. CELSIUS, 3. INDIAN CREAK, 7. LORD RIDDIFORD, 4. NIGHT ON EARTH & 2. EQUALITY

 

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:   
Banker – 6. CELSIUS
Selections – 3. INDIAN CREAK, 7. LORD RIDDIFORD, 4. NIGHT ON EARTH & 2. EQUALITY
S1-6:   
Banker – 16. SUPREME KING
Selections – 12. MISCHIEF MAGIC, 3. CELTIC CHAMPION, 11. MASTER OF CHANT & 15. RUSSET GOLD

 

S1-6 2yo Maiden

 

Experience is often a big advantage in these 1,200m maiden contests and SUPREME KING showed he had a race like this in him when runner-up on his debut. He stayed on well in that 1,200m Haydock novice race, shaping as though he would benefit a great deal from the first run of his career. Richard Hannon’s youngster is a son of KINGMAN and he’s got a really nice pedigree. There’s every chance he could be quite smart.

MISCHIEF MAGIC is another well-bred colt. He made an encouraging debut when third over this course and distance in May. The form of that race has worked out well as the winner, ROYAL SCOTSMAN, went on to hit the frame in the G2 Coventry Stakes over 1,200m at Royal Ascot. MISCHIEF MAGIC also finished surrounded by subsequent winners in that 1,200m Goodwood novice race, so he has to have a decent chance.

Missing the break put CELTIC CHAMPION on the back foot when third on his first run at Windsor over 1,211m last month. The winner, BLUELIGHT BAY, had already had a run – that came when finishing a place in front of MISCHIEF MAGIC over 1,200m at Goodwood – and he put his experience to good use by making all the running. CELTIC CHAMPION is sure to be sharper with that debut run behind him and he is bred to be good as a half-brother of top-class sprinter DRAGON SYMBOL.

Classic-winning trainer Marcus Tregoning won this race two years ago and his MASTER OF CHANT looks to have sound claims. He raced a bit further back than ideal on his debut over 1,200m at Newbury three weeks ago, but he was finishing stronger than anything. He has the ability to make an impact in this race.

RUSSET GOLD ran well when fifth on his debut in a 1,202m Doncaster maiden three weeks ago. His performance was probably better than it looked as he raced towards the far side from stall one. That meant he was caught away from the main action that developed more towards the stands’ side. He’s a brother of Listed winner SAINT LAWRENCE and a half-brother of dual G1 runner-up DAAHYEH, so he has the pedigree for the job.

SELECTIONS: 16. SUPREME KING, 12. MISCHIEF MAGIC, 3. CELTIC CHAMPION, 11. MASTER OF CHANT & 15. RUSSET GOLD

 

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 16. SUPREME KING, 12. MISCHIEF MAGIC & 3. CELTIC CHAMPION
S1-7: Multiple – 6. CRYSTAL CAPRICE, 4. KINGS JOY & 3. WILDERNESS GIRL
S1-8: Multiple – 4. KIDWAH, 2. CRAZY LUCK & 8. LIL GUFF

 

S1-7 3yo+ Fillies & Mares 76-95 Handicap

 

This 1,609m fillies handicap looks a very tricky puzzle to solve with plenty involved having interesting and potentially unexposed profiles.

Though only a winner once from five starts, there could be certainly more to come from KINGS JOY, especially given her connections. Trained by John & Thady Gosden and ridden by Frankie Dettori, the 3YO has run well more often than not this season, notably when third to GRANDE DAME in a conditions race at Ascot over 1,594m on her first start of the campaign. That horse has subsequently won a Listed contest, as has the horse that finished fourth, so it’s form that brings KINGS JOY right into this.

BREAKING LIGHT has had just four runs in her life but based on an impressive win at Haydock last time on handicap debut, she’s a contender. A wind operation seemed to do the trick there and while she’s up in the weights, she won in style of a filly who has more to come. She sneaks in at the foot of the handicap and should have no issue with the step back up to 1,609m.

CRYSTAL CAPRICE has to be respected on her handicap debut. She looked in need of the run on her first start of the season at Newbury over 1,600m but stepped up markedly on that to win decisively at Yarmouth next time out over 1,603m. It’s hard to know where her opening handicap mark leaves her, but her trainer Sir Michael Stoute is a master with these sorts of horses, so there’s a good chance she’ll be involved with more improvement likely.

WILDERNESS GIRL is another worthy of consideration. A winner at this meeting 12 months ago, Andrew Balding’s filly hasn’t won since but given her handler pitched in her into the G3 Prestige Stakes over 1,400m straight after that win shows that she must be held in quite high regard. She was far from disgraced too being beaten four lengths and her run at Haydock last time over 1,434m, on ground that would have been softer than ideal, showed she’s handicapped to feature.

Charlie & Mark Johnston’s runners always have to be respected at this meeting, so their RAINBOW COLOURS is worth a second look. She’s won her last two races at Ripon over 1,600m and Chepstow over 1,613m and while she’s much higher in the weights now, she’s clearly on the up.

SELECTIONS: 6. CRYSTAL CAPRICE, 4. KINGS JOY, 3. WILDERNESS GIRL, 12. RAINBOW COLOURS & 13. BREAKING LIGHT

 

S1-8 World Pool Fillies Handicap

 

KIDWAH should appreciate the return to 1,200m in the World Pool Fillies’ Handicap. She won her first two starts at Doncaster and Redcar – both over this sprint distance – before stepping up to 1,400m for her handicap debut. It wasn’t a complete surprise to see her fade into third up the climb to the winning line at Newmarket (July Course) as she had pulled hard in the early stages. She has plenty of speed so this 1,200m on Goodwood’s sharp straight course should suit her much better.

CRAZY LUCK has been consistent this season. She went close when runner-up over 1,211m at Windsor and 1,200m at York before swooping late to beat MAKAROVA over 1,200m at Newbury. The way she backed up that win with another fast-finishing success over 1,215m at Chester two weeks ago shows she is thriving. Her patient style of running means the handicapper has found it hard to punish her for those victories.

LIL GUFF could finish only fifth of the six runners behind CRAZY LUCK and MAKAROVA over 1,200m at Newbury last month, but the race was not really run to suit her style of racing. Her sixth behind top prospect LETHAL LEVI over 1,200m at Newmarket (July Course) was a much better reflection of her ability. That is traditionally a red-hot sprint handicap and this year’s race looked well up to standard with LETHAL LEVI easily winning his next start. There should be a decent pace for LIL GUFF to aim at again in this race and that should see her finish closer to CRAZY LUCK this time.

MAKAROVA has been progressive in handicaps this season. She won twice over 1,200m at Salisbury before disappointing over the same distance at York. There was clearly something not quite right with her that day and it was good to see her bounce back to form when beaten just a head by CRAZY LUCK over 1,200m at Newbury. She didn’t get the smoothest passage through the race, but she came home with a strong finish. This bigger field will also play to her strengths.

WILLOUGHBY BAY notched up her first win when successful over this course and distance last season. She found the drop to 1,000m against her at Goodwood last month, so she’ll appreciate the return to this trip. Her two runs this season should have set her up nicely for this race.

SELECTIONS: 4. KIDWAH, 2. CRAZY LUCK, 8. LIL GUFF, 10. MAKAROVA & 11. WILLOUGHBY BAY

 

 

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